Market Discussions

It's fairly easy (but not so simple), just read my Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE thread.

Just as planned?

Swings happen.

Actually, without swings, markets go in coma mode.

Given how poor mainstream economic theorists were at understanding the US housing bubble when early signs were showing in 2003-4, I do not believe that mainstream economic theories will predict anything useful about PLEX speculation.

I am staying right out of this market now. In 60 days time I could see PLEX at 600 million or 1100 million and the determining factor will be the decisions made by individual multi-trillionaires, as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas.

I believe the main driving factor for PLEX price decreases is reductions in the cost of 6 and 28 packs. I have no idea how much those packs cost or what they get discounted to.

What I do is not exactly "mainstream". It can't be, because if anyone or anything becomes mainstream it means every cat and dog have jumped on the bandwagon, which SHALL crash. Because the recipe for profit is to always be in the NOT mainstream minority, that is the minority that gains.

Finally, I don't and didn't do any fundamental analysis (that's what Mynna and Akita T do, not me). Neither in RL nor in EvE. Actually, living across the ocean did not exactly push me to try predict an American bubble to begin with.

But I can see - if you really want - if I can find my links to a RL finance forum where I talk about how I have convinced my parents selling most of their properties before the big crash happened in my country. Of course it's in that country's language.

Well, we know one thing.

For the price of PLEX to continue to rise, the demand for PLEX must increase relative to the supply. This means that either:
1) More people decide to play EVE by PLEXing their accounts. A possible consequence of the increased population resulting from that 'This is EVE' trailer
2) The daily supply somehow shrinks. This basically requires more people to horde PLEX.

Based on this, we can reasonably establish that there is a 'peak' price of PLEX. Unless the popularity of EVE grows significantly, the demand for PLEX will always act as a handicap.

I predict we're nearing this handicap. PLEX is very unlikely to stabilise above 1 billion ISK.

It's dropping faster and lower than I had expected at this point. Curious to see where we will be at come monday.

Interesting, prices creeping up again. If this continues the 'big crash' ppl were fearing/hoping for will once again have been nothing more than a correction of the recent spike. We're basically back at the peak of the previous spike (the summer one).

PLEX market, you so boring!