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Plex Prices

First post
Author
RAW23
#101 - 2014-11-21 17:54:18 UTC
Cista2 wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
Closing the gap between buy and sell so that only people with very high standings can profitably trade an item is a tried and tested method.

RAW23 wrote:
I don't shut the margins down

The guy with perfect broker standings, who flips 30-40 PLEX per hour, does not deliberately shut down the margins.
I rest my case - no need for further waterfalls of text Cool



Selective quoting for the win!

RAW23 wrote:

I don't shut the margins down myself because I'm not sufficiently invested as a player in that market to seek to exercise control over it (or any other - I just ride the waves maaan), but if I were trading in it every day for significant periods I would absolutely be closing the margin down actively to shut people out.


I don't have to do it because other people are doing the job for me and I'm complacent enough when trading casually to just follow the trend. If I were one of the players who was in that market daily I would be taking part in those activities as I would have a motivation to make the market dance to my tune as and when I wanted rather than just sliding along on the changes other people are engineering. I would also be working to open up the margins for brief periods at my convenience but not for long enough to let the guys with low standings take part regularly.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.

Cista2
EVE Museum
#102 - 2014-11-21 18:11:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Cista2
Eve Austerity wrote:
If buy support is very strong - from those with deep pockets your risk is quite low

Sure thing Smile PLEX is rising and rising.
And what I pointed out in my first post is that buy support comes also from others than station traders. Namely, people that need PLEX for their 5-6 characters. And these may be fuzzy about the price of PLEX, but certainly not worried about the size of the spread. RAW suggests they buy from sell orders, and certainly many do, but they also can make own buy orders inside the margin spread, and save a buck or two. This is one part of the reason why you see spreads that are "totally not worth it".

And another part of the miniscule price spreads are those that sell PLEX that they bought from CCP. Again, the width of the spread is the last of their worries, they will gladly ruin the spread for you and make a few isk more on their sale.

As will those that have held PLEX and now sell them with high profits of 100 million isk per unit or more. When they decide that today is the day they sell a handful or 20, they don't care much about the spread. I've sold a few myself, doing my bit to narrowing the margin spread each time.

The rise of PLEX atm is similar to the great rise of Technetium a few years ago - which means 0.01 iskers have less influence on the daily price IMHO.

What Bobby and Raw are saying is that it is the people that make 4-5 million profit per unit of PLEX that are fine with driving their profit going down 2-3 million more per unit (except RAW himself naturellement), while those that make 50-100 million isk per unit are more worried about the margin spread, because they do not have perfect broker standings? I don't buy it.


RAW23 wrote:
[sliding along on the changes other people are engineering.

That's my definition of a daytrader lol - someone sliding along the spread created by others. What you are stating as fact is that something like the price spread is created exclusively *by* those daytraders and not by people that only buy, or sell, on a particular day. But there are other operators - I think you would be naive to assume there are not other operators in a PLEX market that has risen like it has in the past months and years Cool

My channel: "Signatures" -

RAW23
#103 - 2014-11-21 18:16:14 UTC  |  Edited by: RAW23
Cista2 wrote:


What Bobby and Raw are saying is that it is the people that make 4-5 million profit per unit of PLEX that are fine with driving their profit going down 2-3 million more per unit (except RAW himself naturellement), while those that make 50-100 million isk per unit are more worried about the margin spread, because they do not have perfect broker standings? I don't buy it.


That's not what we're saying. You're eliding two completely different discussions - one about what is driving the price of plex and one about what normally drives the margin.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.

MoRRaK Galaxy
Disposable Inc
#104 - 2014-11-21 18:23:16 UTC
Im rather happy there rising :)

Makes it easier and cheaper to fund my PvP
Cista2
EVE Museum
#105 - 2014-11-21 18:25:28 UTC
RAW23 wrote:
[quote=Cista2]
You're eliding two completely different discussions - one about what is driving the price of plex and one about what normally drives the margin.

Normally? Please explain to me what items in EVE "normally" increase their price with 300% over a period of a couple of years.

You two keep saying that PLEX is an item that behaves like every other and the price spread is regulated by the "tried and tested method" that daytraders always use on "all high volume items". I in my low humbleness is trying to point out that PLEX has behaved and does behave a little different from most items. Big smile

My channel: "Signatures" -

Eve Austerity
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#106 - 2014-11-21 18:26:02 UTC
Cista2 wrote:
Eve Austerity wrote:
If buy support is very strong - from those with deep pockets your risk is quite low

Sure thing Smile PLEX is rising and rising.
And what I pointed out in my first post is that buy support comes also from others than station traders. Namely, people that need PLEX for their 5-6 characters. And these may be fuzzy about the price of PLEX, but certainly not worried about the size of the spread. RAW suggests they buy from sell orders, and certainly many do, but they also can make own buy orders inside the margin spread, and save a buck or two. This is one part of the reason why you see spreads that are "totally not worth it".

And another part of the miniscule price spreads are those that sell PLEX that they bought from CCP. Again, the width of the spread is the last of their worries, they will gladly ruin the spread for you and make a few isk more on their sale.

As will those that have held PLEX and now sell them with high profits of 100 million isk per unit or more. When they decide that today is the day they sell a handful or 20, they don't care much about the spread. I've sold a few myself, doing my bit to narrowing the margin spread each time.

The rise of PLEX atm is similar to the great rise of Technetium a few years ago - which means 0.01 iskers have less influence on the daily price IMHO.

What Bobby and Raw are saying is that it is the people that make 4-5 million profit per unit of PLEX that are fine with driving their profit going down 2-3 million more per unit (except RAW himself naturellement), while those that make 50-100 million isk per unit are more worried about the margin spread, because they do not have perfect broker standings? I don't buy it.


Dude if i am expecting plex to rise, in say 30mins i want to secure as many as my pockets can afford. Hence i want to reduce the spread because i want less competition in buying the ones up that are available knowing full well that they will go up in an hour. Thus i reduce the margin to the total not worthwhile ( along with the other guys that do this ).
Cista2
EVE Museum
#107 - 2014-11-21 18:32:50 UTC
Eve Austerity wrote:
Dude if i am expecting plex to rise, in say 30mins i want to secure as many as my pockets can afford. Hence i want to reduce the spread because i want less competition in buying the ones up that are available knowing full well that they will go up in an hour. Thus i reduce the margin to the total not worthwhile ( along with the other guys that do this ).

Dude that's not margin trading, that's speculation in a future price.

My channel: "Signatures" -

Eve Austerity
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#108 - 2014-11-21 18:37:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Eve Austerity
Cista2 wrote:
Eve Austerity wrote:
Dude if i am expecting plex to rise, in say 30mins i want to secure as many as my pockets can afford. Hence i want to reduce the spread because i want less competition in buying the ones up that are available knowing full well that they will go up in an hour. Thus i reduce the margin to the total not worthwhile ( along with the other guys that do this ).

Dude that's not margin trading, that's speculation in a future price.


Yeah but the people doing it on an hourly type basis are the same people who are trading in them, as rawrr pointed out to you in an earlier post. You asked why anybody would want to close a spread and i explained why

Edit:- Further more by doing this you encourage people on the buys - alt funders etc to just buy from sells - increasing the sell price yet further because these guys are not gona be interested in saving 5mil
Cista2
EVE Museum
#109 - 2014-11-21 18:50:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Cista2
Eve Austerity wrote:
[Yeah but the people doing it on an hourly type basis are the same people who are trading in them, as rawrr pointed out to you in an earlier post. You asked why anybody would want to close a spread and i explained why

My point is, someone cannot fixate the spread on PLEX by the "tried and tested method" to a width where it shuts out those that do not have perfect broker standings. The price development is too explosive! So....those broker standings are less relevant with PLEX when traders know, as you have just - oh gosh - pointed out, the price will rise anyway and that margin spread we see right now is completely irrelevant.

You state that the narrow margin spread that we see is irrelevant to you, while Bobby and RAW claim that the narrow spread is shutting people out Smile
It doesn't shut you out (maybe you have perfect standings too), and it doesn't shut someone like me out, even though I have horrible standings. I gladly buy into it when I have some free isk, because like you I expect the price to rise. Others do too.

My channel: "Signatures" -

RAW23
#110 - 2014-11-21 19:04:12 UTC
Cista2 wrote:
RAW23 wrote:
[quote=Cista2]
You're eliding two completely different discussions - one about what is driving the price of plex and one about what normally drives the margin.

Normally? Please explain to me what items in EVE "normally" increase their price with 300% over a period of a couple of years.

You two keep saying that PLEX is an item that behaves like every other and the price spread is regulated by the "tried and tested method" that daytraders always use on "all high volume items". I in my low humbleness is trying to point out that PLEX has behaved and does behave a little different from most items. Big smile


All I can say is spend a bit of time actually doing some intensive trading of the spread on a couple of 'normal' days (i.e. days when the price is stable) and you'll see what I mean. At the moment it's pretty clear you are speculating about how the market works and what happens when you trade the spread without much experience of it and since you're unwilling to listen to those who do actually have that experience the only way you'll be convinced is to try it yourself.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.

Eve Austerity
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#111 - 2014-11-21 19:05:01 UTC
Cista2 wrote:
Eve Austerity wrote:
[Yeah but the people doing it on an hourly type basis are the same people who are trading in them, as rawrr pointed out to you in an earlier post. You asked why anybody would want to close a spread and i explained why

My point is, someone cannot fixate the spread on PLEX by the "tried and tested method" to a width where it shuts out those that do not have perfect broker standings. The price development is too explosive! So....those broker standings are less relevant with PLEX when traders know, as you have just - oh gosh - pointed out, the price will rise anyway and that margin spread we see right now is completely irrelevant.

You state that the narrow margin spread that we see is irrelevant to you, while Bobby and RAW claim that the narrow spread is shutting people out Smile



It does, it shut out those that you point out are trying to save isk by buying from a buy and not a sell because it becomes not worth it 'hmm i can save 5mil if i spend an hour babysitting an order, forget that i will just buy it now from a buy'

- thus leaving it open to the traders and speculators only - forgive me but your initial argument was that traders have zero impact in plex and wouldn't want to narrow a spread i have pointed out why as i trader i would look to do that given the right circumstances.

and yes plex price is explosive - perfect broker skills allow you to not lose isk if it doesn't work and to make a chunk if it does. and plex dropped by 65mil ish at one point yesterday and are currently trading circa 35 mil lower on the sells peak. not everybody can afford to have 20-25 bil in plex for any amount of time (opportunity cost ). Those that bought and sold at the wrong time would lose isk if they wanted to cash out today based on yesterdays high buy.
Tear Jar
New Order Logistics
CODE.
#112 - 2014-11-21 20:29:23 UTC
Vincent Athena wrote:
Isabella Odelia wrote:
The UberSoldier wrote:
Remember this thead. Next year, there will be a new one with "why is plex so expensive (with a price at 1.3 bil)"

I, for my self, finally learned one thing: Plex is always expensive, there will be no huge crash because there are so many wealthy people trying to secure their money from inflation. If the market would crash we would see huge demand from various people (which are atm just waiting for lower prices) and less supply (because its not sensible anymore to get that few ISK for real life money) -> PLEX rises again.

Look at the PLEX price on the Chinese Server, in 3-4 years we are going to have these prices on Tranquility.


And then we are going to have no more than 15000 people online at same time, just same as Chinese Server.

It's quite rare to have 15000 on Serenity at once. The average is around 6000 to 7000.

Now here is one to think about:

Right now the price of gasoline is dropping.

As a result, the number of miles you can get per dollar is increasing. Are we, as a result, spending more money on gasoline? No, we are spending less, and the sellers of gasoline are getting less money.

Now take the above and substitute "PLEX for "gasoline" and "ISK" for "miles".

As a result, the number of ISK you can get per dollar is increasing. Are we, as a result, spending more money on PLEX? No, we are spending less, and the sellers of PLEX are getting less money.



It depends, we really have two competing trends.

1. People who say "Plex is worth 1b isk. I am going to buy plex with RL money now!"

and

2. People who need a set amount of isk each month and go "well, now i only need two plex per month instead of 3 to fit my spending habits".
Vincent Athena
Photosynth
#113 - 2014-11-21 22:41:56 UTC
Right. For any commodity there is a price that maximizes the revenue for the seller. Here the seller is CCP, and what we players are buying is ISK. That is we buy PLEX and use it to get ISK form another player. Hence the commodity price we look at is dollars per ISK. This price has an optimum value. If ISK is too expensive, few will buy it as it's a poor use of their money. If it's very cheap (a huge amount of ISK per dollar), many may buy, but they will buy very little PLEX as they just do not need that much, and would rather spend their money on something else. Somewhere in between, CCP makes the most revenue.

Now what is that price? We would need to CCP's sale records to know. The best we can do is look at the trading volume at Jita. The daily trading volume for PLEX peaked somewhere around 500 million. Since then it's been dropping. CCP's economist even remarked on that drop in a presentation. My guess is a 500 million ISK PLEX makes CCP the most revenue.

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Claire Voyant
#114 - 2014-11-21 22:55:31 UTC
Vincent Athena wrote:
Right. For any commodity there is a price that maximizes the revenue for the seller. Here the seller is CCP, and what we players are buying is ISK. That is we buy PLEX and use it to get ISK form another player. Hence the commodity price we look at is dollars per ISK. This price has an optimum value. If ISK is too expensive, few will buy it as it's a poor use of their money. If it's very cheap (a huge amount of ISK per dollar), many may buy, but they will buy very little PLEX as they just do not need that much, and would rather spend their money on something else. Somewhere in between, CCP makes the most revenue.

Now what is that price? We would need to CCP's sale records to know. The best we can do is look at the trading volume at Jita. The daily trading volume for PLEX peaked somewhere around 500 million. Since then it's been dropping. CCP's economist even remarked on that drop in a presentation. My guess is a 500 million ISK PLEX makes CCP the most revenue.

Except you need to separate cause and effect. Maybe prices have risen so much since that that peak because supply has fallen so much. If you have a lot of people wanting to buy isk with PLEX, PLEX prices get driven down, players are happy and CCP is happy. If not so many people want to buy isk with PLEX prices go up and no one except the isk buyers (and PLEX speculators) are happy.
Verity Sovereign
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#115 - 2014-11-22 08:58:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Verity Sovereign
It would be nice if we could get some per month statistics like:
Total number of accounts paid with PLX
+
Total number of additional training queues on accounts paid with PLEX
+
Total amount of PLEX converted to aurum

and then
Total number of plex bought with real money from CCP


Are less people buying plex from CCP?
Are more there more accounts running?
Are more people using dual training?
- ie has plex use gone up (for my part I've gone from a high of using 3 plex per month, to less than one, as my sub lapses from time to time)

Maybe it is just hoarding. My plex stockpile has gradually increased, even as my plex use has gone down (but the rate at which I buy plex has gone down a lot)
Theo Sotken
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#116 - 2014-11-22 10:43:35 UTC
This latest increase in the cost of plexes has made me realise I cannot ignore the plex market.
I currently consume about 10 a month which I was buying as needed but in future I have plan to build a buffer of a hundred.

Do plexes have a geffin good effect ie does the rising price of plex actually increase demand for the plex?
Tear Jar
New Order Logistics
CODE.
#117 - 2014-11-22 15:11:43 UTC
Theo Sotken wrote:
This latest increase in the cost of plexes has made me realise I cannot ignore the plex market.
I currently consume about 10 a month which I was buying as needed but in future I have plan to build a buffer of a hundred.

Do plexes have a geffin good effect ie does the rising price of plex actually increase demand for the plex?


I don't think it has a geffin good effect. I think the supply side of the equation is fairly fixed. a lot of players have a principled opposition to buying plex with money. These people won't sell at any price. Current sellers have no reason to increase PLEX "creation"(I mean they make plenty of isk to meet their wants right now). So PLEX prices are entirely decided by demand(rather when enough people become unable to afford them).

For more specific causes, look at multiboxers(who will keep plexxing until the extra accounts aren't profitable) and stagnating new player numbers.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#118 - 2014-11-24 14:42:21 UTC
PotatoOverdose wrote:
Watching plex drop 40 mil in less than an hour after they hit 1 bil was good fun.


1B is a (very) big round number. It's a very good candidate for price to react to it (as resistance). Of course "reacting" does not necessarily mean "invert direction" but the reaction itself creates a milestone that later may be used to setup a trade.
Vincent Athena
Photosynth
#119 - 2014-11-24 22:01:10 UTC
If the PLEX does start to drop, remember to time your buy. You don't want to be buying at 900 if it's going to drop to 850 or 800.

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Xanato Kaso
Frozen Flames
#120 - 2014-11-26 02:51:42 UTC
Vincent Athena wrote:
If the PLEX does start to drop, remember to time your buy. You don't want to be buying at 900 if it's going to drop to 850 or 800.




how do you tell what its going to drop to though? and if my character needs a plex so i can keep playing. im kinda at the whim of the market