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Plex Prices

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Author
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#81 - 2014-11-20 14:44:01 UTC
Elvandari wrote:
sometimes it is really hard to make profit from trading PLEX due to broker fees and taxes

That is deliberate.

Closing the gap between buy and sell so that only people with very high standings can profitably trade an item is a tried and tested method.

This works well on items with high price and high traded volume, as you can make a non-trivial amount from each trade and multiply that by a large volume of trades.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#82 - 2014-11-20 22:37:39 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Elvandari wrote:
sometimes it is really hard to make profit from trading PLEX due to broker fees and taxes

That is deliberate.

Closing the gap between buy and sell so that only people with very high standings can profitably trade an item is a tried and tested method.

This works well on items with high price and high traded volume, as you can make a non-trivial amount from each trade and multiply that by a large volume of trades.



This is why trillionaires will pay absurd amounts for characters with extreme standings (like 9.8 Gallente Federation to player and 9.993 Federation Navy to player).

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

PotatoOverdose
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
#83 - 2014-11-21 01:53:31 UTC
Watching plex drop 40 mil in less than an hour after they hit 1 bil was good fun.
Airto TLA
Acorn's Wonder Bars
Brave United
#84 - 2014-11-21 05:46:58 UTC
I have to assume the problem of supply has finally come to roost. There are simply not enough people willing to pay to "win" Eve any more. They have been massively outnumbered by those who have isk there way PLex for years and know no other way. The banned miners plexs probably just slowed the inevitable.
Isabella Odelia
Golden-Lions Uncharted
#85 - 2014-11-21 06:51:34 UTC
The UberSoldier wrote:
Remember this thead. Next year, there will be a new one with "why is plex so expensive (with a price at 1.3 bil)"

I, for my self, finally learned one thing: Plex is always expensive, there will be no huge crash because there are so many wealthy people trying to secure their money from inflation. If the market would crash we would see huge demand from various people (which are atm just waiting for lower prices) and less supply (because its not sensible anymore to get that few ISK for real life money) -> PLEX rises again.

Look at the PLEX price on the Chinese Server, in 3-4 years we are going to have these prices on Tranquility.


And then we are going to have no more than 15000 poeple online at same time, just same as Chinese Server.
Cista2
EVE Museum
#86 - 2014-11-21 08:48:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Cista2
Bad Bobby wrote:
Elvandari wrote:
sometimes it is really hard to make profit from trading PLEX due to broker fees and taxes

That is deliberate.

Closing the gap between buy and sell so that only people with very high standings can profitably trade an item is a tried and tested method.

This works well on items with high price and high traded volume, as you can make a non-trivial amount from each trade and multiply that by a large volume of trades.

Utter nonsense from someone who has not station-traded a day in his life. Disinformation to put it nicely.

There are less than 100 PLEX sold in Jita per hour. But PLEX is not like other items.
a) PLEX are largely sold by players that bought them the from CCP with RL money, so not station traders.
b) PLEX are largely bought by players that consume them, so not station traders
c) PLEX have risen 150 million isk in 1 month. The majority of PLEX are of course bought and sold by traders holding *positions* in PLEX, i.e. not riding the narrow spread but keeping their distance to it. Thus making not 10, but 40, 60, 80 million isk per unit.

I am estimating no more than 10 PLEX per hour are bought and sold by a few true margin traders in Jita. Look at the listed prices yourself and see how little 0.01 isking is going on. This does not constitute the postulated "large volume of trades" by any given person with perfect broker relations.
There are many important factors controlling the price of PLEX.... daytraders are not one of them.

My channel: "Signatures" -

Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
#87 - 2014-11-21 09:44:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Dream Five
Cista2 wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
Elvandari wrote:
sometimes it is really hard to make profit from trading PLEX due to broker fees and taxes

That is deliberate.

Closing the gap between buy and sell so that only people with very high standings can profitably trade an item is a tried and tested method.

This works well on items with high price and high traded volume, as you can make a non-trivial amount from each trade and multiply that by a large volume of trades.

Utter nonsense from someone who has not station-traded a day in his life. Disinformation to put it nicely.

There are less than 100 PLEX sold in Jita per hour. But PLEX is not like other items.
a) PLEX are largely sold by players that bought them the from CCP with RL money, so not station traders.
b) PLEX are largely bought by players that consume them, so not station traders
c) PLEX have risen 150 million isk in 1 month. The majority of PLEX are of course bought and sold by traders holding *positions* in PLEX, i.e. not riding the narrow spread but keeping their distance to it. Thus making not 10, but 40, 60, 80 million isk per unit.

I am estimating no more than 10 PLEX per hour are bought and sold by a few true margin traders in Jita. Look at the listed prices yourself and see how little 0.01 isking is going on. This does not constitute the postulated "large volume of trades" by any given person with perfect broker relations.
There are many important factors controlling the price of PLEX.... daytraders are not one of them.


Depends on your capital :) If you can generate enough capital through other means and withhold say 10% of plex per day off the market you will drive the price up.

This is what banks did with US real estate and thats why there's going to be another bubble :)
Sir Constantin
#88 - 2014-11-21 13:21:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir Constantin
Airto TLA wrote:
I have to assume the problem of supply has finally come to roost. There are simply not enough people willing to pay to "win" Eve any more. They have been massively outnumbered by those who have isk there way PLex for years and know no other way. The banned miners plexs probably just slowed the inevitable.


Or maybe is because plex hoarders are investing in plex, they don't care about plex price because it wil always go up. So it's a win win for them.
For every 5 or more paying customers there is a person who makes 5 bil/month or more and is able to buy and stash 5 or more plexes.

I think CCP should limit the amount of plex a person can have and make people to invest in real ingame items.
RAW23
#89 - 2014-11-21 13:44:11 UTC  |  Edited by: RAW23
Cista2 wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
Elvandari wrote:
sometimes it is really hard to make profit from trading PLEX due to broker fees and taxes

That is deliberate.

Closing the gap between buy and sell so that only people with very high standings can profitably trade an item is a tried and tested method.

This works well on items with high price and high traded volume, as you can make a non-trivial amount from each trade and multiply that by a large volume of trades.

Utter nonsense from someone who has not station-traded a day in his life. Disinformation to put it nicely.

There are less than 100 PLEX sold in Jita per hour. But PLEX is not like other items.
a) PLEX are largely sold by players that bought them the from CCP with RL money, so not station traders.
b) PLEX are largely bought by players that consume them, so not station traders
c) PLEX have risen 150 million isk in 1 month. The majority of PLEX are of course bought and sold by traders holding *positions* in PLEX, i.e. not riding the narrow spread but keeping their distance to it. Thus making not 10, but 40, 60, 80 million isk per unit.

I am estimating no more than 10 PLEX per hour are bought and sold by a few true margin traders in Jita. Look at the listed prices yourself and see how little 0.01 isking is going on. This does not constitute the postulated "large volume of trades" by any given person with perfect broker relations.
There are many important factors controlling the price of PLEX.... daytraders are not one of them.


This is very, very, very wrong on pretty much every point.

When I am casually trading the plex margin as a side thing to my main basket of goods or doing it on a second screen while in fleet I normally flip 20 or so plex an hour by myself. On the rare occasions I focus on it it can be 30-40. I am competing with a lot of people and I am never a major player in the PLEX market, keeping my buy orders small. If I spend a day trading on the weekends then 300 billion isk of trades in plex might pass through my hands in an 8 hour period. Margins are tiny but they add up so it's something to do with excess isk that stacks up beyond what I need for my regular trading.

Bear in mind that most people who buy plexes with real money do not put up a sell order to dispose of them - they sell them to the margin traders who have buy orders up. Why? because if you don't have skills and standings you pay a 1% broker fee on top of your sales tax and that wipes out almost all the extra isk you would have earned from selling on a sell order over a buy. Also, most people who buy plexes with rl cash want instant gratification and don't want to nurse sell orders. So, the majority of what you see on sells are recycled from buys.

You can check this by looking at the highest, lowest and average prices on the chart from days when the price was relatively stable - average in normally roughly in the middle of lowest and highest, suggesting that the volume of goods sold on sell orders and buy orders is roughly proportional.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.

Cista2
EVE Museum
#90 - 2014-11-21 15:01:32 UTC
RAW23 wrote:
[This is very, very, very wrong on pretty much every point.

When I am casually trading the plex margin as a side thing to my main basket of goods or doing it on a second screen while in fleet I normally flip 20 or so plex an hour by myself. On the rare occasions I focus on it it can be 30-40. I am competing with a lot of people and I am never a major player in the PLEX market, keeping my buy orders small. If I spend a day trading on the weekends then 300 billion isk of trades in plex might pass through my hands in an 8 hour period. Margins are tiny but they add up so it's something to do with excess isk that stacks up beyond what I need for my regular trading.

Bear in mind that most people who buy plexes with real money do not put up a sell order to dispose of them - they sell them to the margin traders who have buy orders up. Why? because if you don't have skills and standings you pay a 1% broker fee on top of your sales tax and that wipes out almost all the extra isk you would have earned from selling on a sell order over a buy. Also, most people who buy plexes with rl cash want instant gratification and don't want to nurse sell orders. So, the majority of what you see on sells are recycled from buys.

You can check this by looking at the highest, lowest and average prices on the chart from days when the price was relatively stable - average in normally roughly in the middle of lowest and highest, suggesting that the volume of goods sold on sell orders and buy orders is roughly proportional.

So, less than 100 PLEX are sold (in Jita) per hour, and you are personally responsible for 30-40 of those less than 100 sold? That is impressive indeed, but I do not understand why you call yourself a small player when you have "casually" cornered so much of the market.

Maybe your monopoly is why there is no 0.01 isking on this item Smile

Anyway, the statement that was made by Bad Bobby was that the players with the perfect broker standings have "deliberately" made the spread on the item so small that noone else can make any profit. This is what I said was utter nonsense, and that the spread on PLEX is decided not by the daytraders - the daytraders simply trade within the price margin that the item has. I did *not* say that is not possible to make profit on that spread and that noone is doing it. I said that daytraders are not the important factor in price development of PLEX.

You, who trade 30-40 PLEX per hour on the slim margin spread, must then be the right question to answer the question: have you deliberately minimised your own profits to the smallest possible, just to squeeze any competitiors out?
You did say that I am wrong in everything I put forward, so we just need a confirmation that to minimize your profit is indeed your strategy.
Alternatively, if that is not your strategy, then you should in fact agree with me that such a strategy is nonsensical.

My channel: "Signatures" -

Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#91 - 2014-11-21 15:06:33 UTC
Now this thread is going places.
flakeys
Doomheim
#92 - 2014-11-21 15:20:29 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Now this thread is going places.



At least both the entertainment value as the informative value is going up by every page ...

We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.

RAW23
#93 - 2014-11-21 15:56:29 UTC  |  Edited by: RAW23
Cista2 wrote:

So, less than 100 PLEX are sold (in Jita) per hour, and you are personally responsible for 30-40 of those less than 100 sold? That is impressive indeed, but I do not understand why you call yourself a small player when you have "casually" cornered so much of the market.

Maybe your monopoly is why there is no 0.01 isking on this item Smile

Anyway, the statement that was made by Bad Bobby was that the players with the perfect broker standings have "deliberately" made the spread on the item so small that noone else can make any profit. This is what I said was utter nonsense, and that the spread on PLEX is decided not by the daytraders - the daytraders simply trade within the price margin that the item has. I did *not* say that is not possible to make profit on that spread and that noone is doing it. I said that daytraders are not the important factor in price development of PLEX.

You, who trade 30-40 PLEX per hour on the slim margin spread, must then be the right question to answer the question: have you deliberately minimised your own profits to the smallest possible, just to squeeze any competitiors out?
You did say that I am wrong in everything I put forward, so we just need a confirmation that to minimize your profit is indeed your strategy.
Alternatively, if that is not your strategy, then you should in fact agree with me that such a strategy is nonsensical.


A couple of things:

a) Your figure of 100 PLEX an hour in Jita is waaaaay off. What you have done is taken the daily average and then proceeded to treat each hour as if it conforms to that average. This is not the case. The vast majority of PLEX trading is done in EU and US prime-time, a window of about 8-10 hours. During this period PLEX volumes are much higher than during the hour after downtime, for instance, and I would estimate that the average in the peak period is closer to 200 than 100.

b) As to why I'm a small player, it's because I trade casually and infrequently. While I might be very active when I'm active, the periods I'm active are brief and inconsistent. It's pretty easy to corner about 10% of the volume in any market if you are willing to 0.01 constantly for a few hours. I certainly have nothing approaching a monopoly but I do concede that if I traded everyday for significant periods then I would probably count as a relatively major player in the market.

c)

Quote:

Maybe your monopoly is why there is no 0.01 isking on this item Smile


Go and buy a stack of 5 plexes on a buy order and then sell it on a sell order, then come back and tell me there is no 0.01isking. There is probably more in this market than in any other market I have traded in when the spreads are decent (although see d below) and I can't begin to understand why you think otherwise.

d)

Quote:

Anyway, the statement that was made by Bad Bobby was that the players with the perfect broker standings have "deliberately" made the spread on the item so small that noone else can make any profit. This is what I said was utter nonsense, and that the spread on PLEX is decided not by the daytraders - the daytraders simply trade within the price margin that the item has.


No, Bobby is right here and you're wrong. Just watch the market for a while and you'll see that those 0.01ing don't let the spread get too high for too long. There is already a lot of competition and when the spread gets big enough to allow those without standings to play as well, activity on the market becomes much harder to compete with. As such, while I might enjoy half an hour of a higher than normal spread, I know with absolute certainty it will be closed down in the 30-45 minute time frame if it opens up during peak hours (off peak the wider spreads can last longer). I don't shut the margins down myself because I'm not sufficiently invested as a player in that market to seek to exercise control over it (or any other - I just ride the waves maaan), but if I were trading in it every day for significant periods I would absolutely be closing the margin down actively to shut people out. This is hardly rocket science or anything new to eve. Margins are not a 'natural' product of the good being traded, they are a product of the way traders trade them. As Bobby pointed out, the situation is the same in a lot of the other very high volume markets in Jita (look at low end mins for example). These markets are largely controlled by a relatively small number of people with deep pockets who keep the margins slim and also have the resources to push the markets around a bit.


e)
Quote:

I did *not* say that is not possible to make profit on that spread and that noone is doing it. I said that daytraders are not the important factor in price development of PLEX.


I think you are confusing two different things. Day traders control the spread on the item but not necessarily the price. Manipulators control the price but not necessarily the spread. However, day traders and manipulators are often one and the same people, so Bobby signalling that he is trading the margin and Bobby signalling that he is to some extent controlling the prices are signals about two different activities from the same person, not a claim that trading the margin sets the price. It doesn't, at least by itself, but it only takes little nudges to open and close margins in the plex market, partly because the margins are so small in comparison to the value of the item that being caught on the wrong side of even a small drop can cost 100s of millions. I suspect that what is having its effect on the plex market is a combination of day traders/light manipulators who have found that it is easy to keep nudging the market up a little at a time without much significant downwards resistance with a few speculators who have caught onto this trend and bet big on it.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.

Signal11th
#94 - 2014-11-21 15:57:45 UTC
*gets popcorn and a brew*

God Said "Come Forth and receive eternal life!" I came fifth and won a toaster!

PotatoOverdose
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
#95 - 2014-11-21 16:00:46 UTC
Now down 50 mil from 1b.
The only way it can go is up, up, up!
*popcorn*
Eve Austerity
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#96 - 2014-11-21 16:02:26 UTC
Hey,

I can also trade 20-30 plex in an hour and sometimes 40-50 - granted i don't get involved in every spread so its not a permanent state of events but every day i do 40-50 as an absolute minimum - I would say that day traders are almost certainly involved in the plex market on a very regular basis. I know at least 3/4 others who do the same thing. Looking at it as 100 plex per hour is also nice - Do you have a citation for that? The reason i ask is that in my limited experience i'm of the opinion that peak times take a much larger share of the total volume. I could be wrong

To say that day trading has no effect is not accurate IMHO.

Regards

Eve A
Vincent Athena
Photosynth
#97 - 2014-11-21 16:21:22 UTC
Isabella Odelia wrote:
The UberSoldier wrote:
Remember this thead. Next year, there will be a new one with "why is plex so expensive (with a price at 1.3 bil)"

I, for my self, finally learned one thing: Plex is always expensive, there will be no huge crash because there are so many wealthy people trying to secure their money from inflation. If the market would crash we would see huge demand from various people (which are atm just waiting for lower prices) and less supply (because its not sensible anymore to get that few ISK for real life money) -> PLEX rises again.

Look at the PLEX price on the Chinese Server, in 3-4 years we are going to have these prices on Tranquility.


And then we are going to have no more than 15000 people online at same time, just same as Chinese Server.

It's quite rare to have 15000 on Serenity at once. The average is around 6000 to 7000.

Now here is one to think about:

Right now the price of gasoline is dropping.

As a result, the number of miles you can get per dollar is increasing. Are we, as a result, spending more money on gasoline? No, we are spending less, and the sellers of gasoline are getting less money.

Now take the above and substitute "PLEX for "gasoline" and "ISK" for "miles".

As a result, the number of ISK you can get per dollar is increasing. Are we, as a result, spending more money on PLEX? No, we are spending less, and the sellers of PLEX are getting less money.

Know a Frozen fan? Check this out

Frozen fanfiction

Cista2
EVE Museum
#98 - 2014-11-21 17:39:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Cista2
Bad Bobby wrote:
Closing the gap between buy and sell so that only people with very high standings can profitably trade an item is a tried and tested method.

RAW23 wrote:
I don't shut the margins down

The guy with perfect broker standings, who flips 30-40 PLEX per hour, does not deliberately shut down the margins.
I rest my case - no need for further waterfalls of text Cool

My channel: "Signatures" -

Claire Voyant
#99 - 2014-11-21 17:41:27 UTC
Vincent Athena wrote:
Now here is one to think about:

Right now the price of gasoline is dropping.

As a result, the number of miles you can get per dollar is increasing. Are we, as a result, spending more money on gasoline? No, we are spending less, and the sellers of gasoline are getting less money.

Now take the above and substitute "PLEX for "gasoline" and "ISK" for "miles".

As a result, the number of ISK you can get per dollar is increasing. Are we, as a result, spending more money on PLEX? No, we are spending less, and the sellers of PLEX are getting less money.

But a mile will always be a mile (until we all get helicopters) while the RL value of isk is dropping rapidly.

The demand curve for gasoline says consumers will probably drive more with a lower price of gas even if they spend less for gas in total. For example a 10% decrease in the price of gas might mean a 5% increase in miles driven.

A 10% decrease in the price of isk may or may not mean an increase in the isk bought for RL money. If the isk you are buying today has a perceived value to you of 20% less than before, a 10% price break may not seem like such a deal.

Isk is not a commodity, it is a currency. If the pound becomes cheaper than a dollar then Americans might vacation in England more because they can get more value for their money. But at some point if people don't want to visit a country no matter how much you devalue the currency they will still stay away.

Not that Eve is a third world country yet, but we do need more space tourists for PLEX prices to stabilize.

And while we may moan about the lack of space tourists driving up PLEX prices, CCP is going to have to layoff more employees soon if it doesn't get better.
Eve Austerity
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#100 - 2014-11-21 17:48:08 UTC
Cista2 wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
That is deliberate.

RAW23 wrote:
I don't shut the margins down myself

The guy with perfect broker standings, who flips 30-40 PLEX per hour, does not deliberately shut down the margins.
I rest my case - no need for more word cascades Cool



Actually not true - it really depends on the resistance at any given time and how far you want to move into speculation.

For example on a market like plex u might close the margin to apply upward pressure even if its just limited. Recently i've noticed 10mil spreads - totally not worthwhile - however competition is the same on the buys because the resistance for it to be able to open again to a 15mil margin is very low on the sells - hourly trading almost as opposed to pure station trading. You dont need to have massively deep pockets depending on what time you do this either because if you take out 20% of the plex at an off peak time and only 15 need to sell to reestablish your margin there is a good chance it will happen.

If buy support is very strong - from those with deep pockets your risk is quite low

Regards

Eve A