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Has suicide ganking become a problem? Empty freighters being ganked.

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Veers Belvar
Swordmasters of New Eden
#3121 - 2014-09-01 20:35:21 UTC
admiral root wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:
The gankers don't target all ships equally....you would need to look at the conditional probability of your freighter being ganked in Uedama, which is probably higher than the number you gave.


The chance is less than 0.22%, as that's the percentage of all ship types combined. I've seen it get as high as a whopping 0.5% some days.


i'm not sure what you are saying. The question to be answered is: if you take a freighter into Uedama, what are the chances of it xlpoding. You would need to know (1) the number of freighters blown up in Uedama for the day and (2) the number of Freighters that went into Uedama for the day. Then you would divide (1) by (2). Trying to use total ships jumping or total ships blown up, is... well....bad. And since we don't know (2) any kind of probabilistic analysis is...well....bad.

We could have someone sit on the gate with a counter and count for us....it would be an interesting experiment if anyone wants something to do for 23.5 hours....
Veers Belvar
Swordmasters of New Eden
#3122 - 2014-09-01 20:36:09 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:


I think this is also an important post, because real data would really help things here. Unfortunately I don't have the numbers, and I don't see any source for your numbers. It would help if CCP would be more open with this data. Would you be able to check if freighter ganking has inreased since CODE started their freighter gank campaign?


It hasn't. Compared to a year ago freighter ganking has halved.


Can you source your data for me? Freighter kills have not been upward trending in the last 2 months?
Crumplecorn
Eve Cluster Explorations
#3123 - 2014-09-01 20:37:41 UTC
When someone is ill, their symptoms can worsen as their body works to fight off the malady. The fever pitch (pun intended) this thread is reaching seems to be the infection of bot aspirancy being driven out by the cleansing power of CODE.

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RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#3124 - 2014-09-01 20:38:13 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Veers Belvar wrote:
Actually, to the extent that CODE is growing and now targeting more freighters, I think that (1) is pretty obvious. As for (2), refer back to the OP and ganking empty freighters, done purely for tears and to drive people out of the game, which I think most people would consider bad for Eve.


So, what is the rate of Freighter ganking per Freighter trip (or jump if you'd like to use that) and what was the rate in the past?

You're claiming an increase, those are the pieces of evidence you need to provide.


Veers Belvar wrote:
We could have someone sit on the gate with a counter and count for us....it would be an interesting experiment if anyone wants something to do for 23.5 hours....


Since that's part of the evidence *you* need to provide to support *your* claim, I'm glad you're volunteering.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

admiral root
Red Galaxy
#3125 - 2014-09-01 20:38:58 UTC
Veers Belvar wrote:
admiral root wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:
The gankers don't target all ships equally....you would need to look at the conditional probability of your freighter being ganked in Uedama, which is probably higher than the number you gave.


The chance is less than 0.22%, as that's the percentage of all ship types combined. I've seen it get as high as a whopping 0.5% some days.


i'm not sure what you are saying. The question to be answered is: if you take a freighter into Uedama, what are the chances of it xlpoding.


I understand the question. In the past 24 hours there was a 0.22% chance of your ship exploding there, regardless of type therefore the chance of a freighter exploding has to be less than that (unless every ship killed was a freighter).

No, your rights end in optimal+2*falloff

baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#3126 - 2014-09-01 20:39:28 UTC
Veers Belvar wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:


I think this is also an important post, because real data would really help things here. Unfortunately I don't have the numbers, and I don't see any source for your numbers. It would help if CCP would be more open with this data. Would you be able to check if freighter ganking has inreased since CODE started their freighter gank campaign?


It hasn't. Compared to a year ago freighter ganking has halved.


Can you source your data for me? Freighter kills have not been upward trending in the last 2 months?


Our own records. Data can be found on zkill.

Ganking freighters might be up from 2 months ago but it is still down from last year. Barge ganking when compared to 3 years ago is also dramatically lower.
Ima Wreckyou
The Conference Elite
The Conference
#3127 - 2014-09-01 20:39:49 UTC
Veers Belvar wrote:
And again, though busy, I think that my favorite CODE enforcement agent deserves a response. Eve is like the US Tax Code....there are a tremendous number of complex rules (the coding) and a tremendous number of independent actors looking for loopholes in those rules to achieve unintended and unanticipated results.

But CCP repeatedly stated that unintended and unanticipated actions of players are a good thing, so this analogy is just not working. For example wormholes where never ment to be colonized, they where thinking that living there would be a logistical nightmare and no one would do it. They where amazed by what the players did with the place.

Veers Belvar wrote:

As you have pointed out we have seen 11 years of nerfs to suicide ganking, and that is because the Devs were not happy with the mechanic, and felt that it was overly favorably to the gankers. CODE continues to do important work and demonstrate yet more loopholes and unintended results, and I am confident that the Devs will, as always, take action to remedy the situation and close the loopholes. And I would rather help keep this game great than defect to STO, because I really enjoy the PvE content in eve, and a lot of the PvP content as well.

They did it because an extremely vocal minority of carebears cried in the forums kinda like now with the difference that most of the real players did not give a frak about the forums and ignored the tears until it was too late.

This is what brings me here. I don't write here to convince you with my arguments, I and many others are here to counter your flawed reasoning with sound arguments so that the reader and CCP dev with brain who actually reads this threads full of carebear tears sees that there are people who care about the game and why ideas like yours go against the core of the game and will damage it even more and maybe forever.
Veers Belvar
Swordmasters of New Eden
#3128 - 2014-09-01 20:40:59 UTC
admiral root wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:
admiral root wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:
The gankers don't target all ships equally....you would need to look at the conditional probability of your freighter being ganked in Uedama, which is probably higher than the number you gave.


The chance is less than 0.22%, as that's the percentage of all ship types combined. I've seen it get as high as a whopping 0.5% some days.


i'm not sure what you are saying. The question to be answered is: if you take a freighter into Uedama, what are the chances of it xlpoding.


I understand the question. In the past 24 hours there was a 0.22% chance of your ship exploding there, regardless of type therefore the chance of a freighter exploding has to be less than that (unless every ship killed was a freighter).



Ehrmmm....no.....Imagine 100 ships went in, 99 Machariels and one Freighter. All the Machs lived and the Freighter died. The total death rate was 1%. The Freighter death rate was 100%, which is certainly not upwardly bound by the 1% total death rate. See what I'm saying?
Ramona McCandless
Silent Vale
LinkNet
#3129 - 2014-09-01 20:43:18 UTC
You cant ask others to provide data to support their position if yours isnt equally supported.

You need to go first.

If you dont, your position is baseless.

"Yea, some dude came in and was normal for first couple months, so I gave him director." - Sean Dunaway

"A singular character could be hired to penetrate another corps space... using gorilla like tactics..." - Chane Morgann

Hengle Teron
Red Sky Morning
The Amarr Militia.
#3130 - 2014-09-01 20:44:34 UTC
hm talking about CONCORD as law enforcers.... how come they have 100% criminal punishment rate ? There's no police anywhere in the world anywhere near that effective...
admiral root
Red Galaxy
#3131 - 2014-09-01 20:45:07 UTC
Veers Belvar wrote:
Ehrmmm....no.....Imagine 100 ships went in, 99 Machariels and one Freighter. All the Machs lived and the Freighter died. The total death rate was 1%. The Freighter death rate was 100%, which is certainly not upwardly bound by the 1% total death rate. See what I'm saying?


I see what you're saying but I don't see what value that number would have unless you want to run around screaming the sky is falling because 100% of freighters that jump into a system die. The number that matters in your scenario is 1%.

No, your rights end in optimal+2*falloff

Ima Wreckyou
The Conference Elite
The Conference
#3132 - 2014-09-01 20:45:19 UTC
Veers Belvar wrote:
My analysis was based on the CODE killboard, their website, my intel channels, my experiences in Uedama, and the increasing frequency of complaints by freighter pilots. Those points are all unassailable. Obviously hard numbers would, I believe, further support my position.

It's snowing outside, so the earth must be cooling.

Maybe you should pick 20 other random highsec systems and observe there for a while and not only the one system we ganked Freighters in the last month.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#3133 - 2014-09-01 20:46:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Veers Belvar wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
admiral root wrote:
Some alarming stats for the past 24 hours:

Jita: 54,053 jumps / 506 ship kills / 0.94%
Niarja: 36,762 jumps / 101 ship kills / 0.28%
Uedama: 36,022 jumps / 79 ship kills / 0.22%

Totals: 126,837 jumps / 686 ship kills / 0.54%

A 0.54% chance of someone blowing up your ship for any reason including, but not limited to, suicide ganking in 3 key systems. Hold me, CCP Falcon, I'm scared!
I'm going to run with this

As of the time of this, Zkill is showing a grand total of 23 freighters/orcas dying universe wide since 00.00, 20 of which were in highsec.
Out of those 20, 4 are down to wars.

For yesterday Zkill is showing a total of 21 freighters/orcas dying universe wide, 14 of which are in highsec, 1 of which is down to a war.

I think I can safely say that freighter and orcas account for 10's if not 100's of thousands jumps per day. The odds of a freighter or an orca exploding are minuscule.



The gankers don't target all ships equally....you would need to look at the conditional probability of your freighter being ganked in Uedama, which is probably higher than the number you gave.
Well.... looking at zkill there are no freighter/orca deaths showing in Uedama for today, there were 8 yesterday. Considering Uedama is a choke point on a trade pipe I would hazard a very conservative guess that at least 10% of the jumps through Uedama were freighters.

Assuming my conservative estimate of 10% is true and we cut the total jumps for the system in 2 to allow for entering and leaving the system, a sub 2% death rate over the weekend, a traditionally good time to kill folks, is hardly "endless ganking" and that 2% includes war decs.

The true percentage of freighter traffic through Uedama is probably much higher, and thus the death rate a lot lower.

Evidentially your math is as poor as your game knowledge.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

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Veers Belvar
Swordmasters of New Eden
#3134 - 2014-09-01 20:47:40 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:


I think this is also an important post, because real data would really help things here. Unfortunately I don't have the numbers, and I don't see any source for your numbers. It would help if CCP would be more open with this data. Would you be able to check if freighter ganking has inreased since CODE started their freighter gank campaign?


It hasn't. Compared to a year ago freighter ganking has halved.


Can you source your data for me? Freighter kills have not been upward trending in the last 2 months?


Our own records. Data can be found on zkill.

Ganking freighters might be up from 2 months ago but it is still down from last year. Barge ganking when compared to 3 years ago is also dramatically lower.


Are you able to share this data? I'm not sure if you talking about absolute numbers, relative frequency, etc.... Also, it should be easy enough for you to check of the number of freighters blown up in the last 2 month has been increasing...a lot of people here seem to doubt it.
Ramona McCandless
Silent Vale
LinkNet
#3135 - 2014-09-01 20:49:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Ramona McCandless
Ima Wreckyou wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:
My analysis was based on the CODE killboard, their website, my intel channels, my experiences in Uedama, and the increasing frequency of complaints by freighter pilots. Those points are all unassailable. Obviously hard numbers would, I believe, further support my position.

It's snowing outside, so the earth must be cooling.

Maybe you should pick 20 other random highsec systems and observe there for a while and not only the one system we ganked Freighters in the last month.


It would also follow that if they were ganking freighters in Uedama, they werent doing it so much elsewhere. As there are more gates outside Uedama (and freighters) than inside, I would like to thank CODE for preventing ganking in the rest of New Eden and securing the transit of freighters in the rest of space by not being there.

Is that how this works? Becuase CODE are the only gankers that matter, right? Because only they affect Freighter losses galaxy wide, right?

"Yea, some dude came in and was normal for first couple months, so I gave him director." - Sean Dunaway

"A singular character could be hired to penetrate another corps space... using gorilla like tactics..." - Chane Morgann

Hengle Teron
Red Sky Morning
The Amarr Militia.
#3136 - 2014-09-01 20:50:17 UTC
Veers Belvar wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:


I think this is also an important post, because real data would really help things here. Unfortunately I don't have the numbers, and I don't see any source for your numbers. It would help if CCP would be more open with this data. Would you be able to check if freighter ganking has inreased since CODE started their freighter gank campaign?


It hasn't. Compared to a year ago freighter ganking has halved.


Can you source your data for me? Freighter kills have not been upward trending in the last 2 months?


Our own records. Data can be found on zkill.

Ganking freighters might be up from 2 months ago but it is still down from last year. Barge ganking when compared to 3 years ago is also dramatically lower.


Are you able to share this data? I'm not sure if you talking about absolute numbers, relative frequency, etc.... Also, it should be easy enough for you to check of the number of freighters blown up in the last 2 month has been increasing...a lot of people here seem to doubt it.

A short term increase does not a trend make
Ramona McCandless
Silent Vale
LinkNet
#3137 - 2014-09-01 20:50:27 UTC
Veers Belvar wrote:
Also, it should be easy enough for you to check of the number of freighters blown up in the last 2 month has been increasing...a lot of people here seem to doubt it.


So why havent you?

"Yea, some dude came in and was normal for first couple months, so I gave him director." - Sean Dunaway

"A singular character could be hired to penetrate another corps space... using gorilla like tactics..." - Chane Morgann

Veers Belvar
Swordmasters of New Eden
#3138 - 2014-09-01 20:50:32 UTC

[/quote]Well.... looking at zkill there are no freighter/orca deaths showing in Uedama for today, there were 8 yesterday. Considering Uedama is a choke point on a trade pipe I would hazard a very conservative guess that at least 10% of the jumps through Uedama were freighters.

Assuming my conservative estimate of 10% is true, a sub 2% death rate over the weekend, a traditionally good time to kill folks, is hardly "endless ganking" and that 2% includes war decs.



Evidentally your math is as poor as your game knowledge.[/quote]


I seriously, seriously, doubt that 10% of the jumps were by freighters, that sounds crazy. And anyway, I think that a 2% chance of your freighter xploding is kind of concerning. Certainly, after thousands and thousands of jumps in my Machariel, it has not once been suicide ganked, even though I am often carrying billions in equipment on it.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#3139 - 2014-09-01 20:50:55 UTC
Veers Belvar wrote:


Are you able to share this data? I'm not sure if you talking about absolute numbers, relative frequency, etc.... Also, it should be easy enough for you to check of the number of freighters blown up in the last 2 month has been increasing...a lot of people here seem to doubt it.


All the raw data is on zkill, feel free to go look.

Code are destroying fewer freighters than we were at this point last year.
Veers Belvar
Swordmasters of New Eden
#3140 - 2014-09-01 20:51:18 UTC
Ramona McCandless wrote:
Veers Belvar wrote:
Also, it should be easy enough for you to check of the number of freighters blown up in the last 2 month has been increasing...a lot of people here seem to doubt it.


So why havent you?


Because Goons have the hard data and I don't!