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Dev Blog: CSM8 Election Statistics

First post First post
Author
Karsa Egivand
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#81 - 2013-05-08 05:31:03 UTC
Overall, STV did splendidly the first time. Very much looking forward to how it works out for CSM9, when more people get how it works and maybe more people vote.

Lowsec/FW won't repeat this years LACK of participation. That's a "new" bloc.

I also predict a carebear/high-sec bloc/party for the next CSM election that'll get 2+ seats - basically new voters (not even Mike Azariah really represents them, although he comes closest). Not that I like that too much, but its probably appropriate.

And more voters - I guess - will shuffle their blocballots a bit on personal preference (which isn't that bad for the bloc in question, as long as it's mostly its candidates in front).
pussnheels
Viziam
#82 - 2013-05-08 05:56:44 UTC
manipulated by the largest powerblocs of voters as predicted , otherwise completely useless set of stats and a waste of time and energy on CCP part

you find more useful info on feedbaxk threads on the forums than this collection of delegates

I do not agree with what you are saying , but i will defend to the death your right to say it...... Voltaire

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#83 - 2013-05-08 05:59:23 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Null bloc votes, as identified by Two Step: 9823+10957+5999 = 26799, 53.9% of the votes

Null bloc candidates: Five (Myself, Kesper, Sort, Sala and Progodlegend), which is about 35% of the council. I suppose you could count Malcanis as well, as the HBC ballot was instrumental in electing him and he is technically part of the bloc, but even that's only 42%.

Basically, I'm saying that I think the people who were claiming that STV is all about rigging it for nullsec (ya'll know who you are) can put down their tinfoil hats. If anything we're under represented. Blink



There, there, I'm sure you'll do better next year.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#84 - 2013-05-08 06:00:07 UTC
pussnheels wrote:
manipulated by the largest powerblocs of voters as predicted , otherwise completely useless set of stats and a waste of time and energy on CCP part

you find more useful info on feedbaxk threads on the forums than this collection of delegates


Yes, these forums are a fount of insight and wisdom.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#85 - 2013-05-08 06:07:40 UTC
pussnheels wrote:
manipulated by the largest powerblocs of voters as predicted , otherwise completely useless set of stats and a waste of time and energy on CCP part

you find more useful info on feedbaxk threads on the forums than this collection of delegates


It's OK we're just going to steal all the good stuff from the forums anyway and claim it was our idea.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#86 - 2013-05-08 06:07:56 UTC
I guess what I'm saying is: the system works!

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#87 - 2013-05-08 06:30:39 UTC
Varius Xeral wrote:
pussnheels wrote:
manipulated by the largest powerblocs of voters as predicted , otherwise completely useless set of stats and a waste of time and energy on CCP part

you find more useful info on feedbaxk threads on the forums than this collection of delegates


Yes, these forums are a fount of insight and wisdom.


I didn't say it would take very long.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Emily Jean McKenna
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#88 - 2013-05-08 06:34:33 UTC
FIrst request... tell CCP to stop the Battleship changes.
Salpun
Global Telstar Federation Offices
#89 - 2013-05-08 06:51:28 UTC
Emily Jean McKenna wrote:
FIrst request... tell CCP to stop the Battleship changes.

What part of the changes?Twisted

If i dont know something about EVE. I check https://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/ISK_The_Guide

See you around the universe.

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#90 - 2013-05-08 07:26:47 UTC
Emily Jean McKenna wrote:
FIrst request... tell CCP to stop the Battleship changes.



Request denied. The BS changes are fantastic.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Mike Azariah
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#91 - 2013-05-08 07:32:41 UTC
Karsa Egivand wrote:
Overall, STV did splendidly the first time. Very much looking forward to how it works out for CSM9, when more people get how it works and maybe more people vote.

Lowsec/FW won't repeat this years LACK of participation. That's a "new" bloc.

I also predict a carebear/high-sec bloc/party for the next CSM election that'll get 2+ seats - basically new voters (not even Mike Azariah really represents them, although he comes closest). Not that I like that too much, but its probably appropriate.

And more voters - I guess - will shuffle their bloc ballots a bit on personal preference (which isn't that bad for the bloc in question, as long as it's mostly its candidates in front).


I agree that this time around was a learning experience for everybody and I know some folks are already making plans for how to 'do better' next time.

Good.

That high-sec might actually get organized and form their own block, unlikely but good as well.

I am finding it funny that I keep being the dark horse who proves things didn't work as planned in the election because you cannot figure out who the hell voted for me. I lack a bloc yet I got enough to get elected.

Hard to imagine that maybe . . . . juuuuust maybe I managed to convince enough of all the blocs that I was a decent kind of guy without a political axe to grind? That maybe having such a guy on the council might be a good thing to have? Nah. That goes against all the back room plans and mathematical models that a normal guy could manage such a thing without massive backing.

Oh wait . . . you can buy into the ECCE conspiracy, I was part of a secret organization of non bloc folks that could amass all the votes . . . .from whom? The high-sec voters who reportedly didn't take part?

Bah, what does it matter?

either . . .

a) the CSM has no power so who cares, we didn't want those seats anyways
b) what difference can one guy make? our boys will just relegate him to the corner where he can be properly ignored
or
c) great! way to go, Mike. Don't tell my alliance but I voted for you, too

It's late . . . I have a lot of reading to do to catch up on what has happened in the past so I can be best informed about where we are going next. Run the numbers, make hats out of tinfoil, whatever.

I have work to do

m

Mike Azariah  ┬──┬ ¯|(ツ)

Chribba
Otherworld Enterprises
Otherworld Empire
#92 - 2013-05-08 07:40:50 UTC
Graphs graphs graphs!

★★★ Secure 3rd party service ★★★

Visit my in-game channel 'Holy Veldspar'

Twitter @ChribbaVeldspar

Snow Axe
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#93 - 2013-05-08 08:19:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Snow Axe
Mike Azariah wrote:
I am finding it funny that I keep being the dark horse who proves things didn't work as planned in the election because you cannot figure out who the hell voted for me. I lack a bloc yet I got enough to get elected.


Once you actually look at the candidates list and break down who's who, it's pretty easy to see why you got in. The short version: there were barely any candidates at all, and less than half of them weren't bloc members.

Since this thread is "show and tell stuff", this is how I worked it out:

Unaffiliated
Ripard Teg, Mangala Solaris, Trebor Daehdoow, Ali Aras, Psychotic Monk, corebloodbrothers, riverini, Mike Azariah, Steve Ronuken, Roc Weiler, Psychobitch

HBC
Malcanis, Banlish, Sort Dragon, Sala Cameron, Awol Aurix

CFC
Kaleb Rysode, Mynnna, Kesper North, Unforgiven Storm*, Arctura, DaeHan Minhyok

N3
progodlegend, Travis Musgrat

Wormhole
Chitsa Jason, Nathan Jameson, James Arget, Ayeson, Cipreh

Russian
Greene Lee, Korvin

First, some caveats. I counted Malcanis and Unforgiven Storm as bloc candidates despite their essentially running without official bloc support. My reasoning for this is that your average voter whose ear isn't too tight to the ground either (a) wouldn't know that or (b) wouldn't believe it.

One could also argue that both Ali Aras (Provibloc) and Mangala Solaris (RvB) could be considered bloc candidates, though I kept it just to 0.0 blocs that we know would organize (or attempt to, in the HBC's case), since the "null" vs "other" ideological divide is probably the most important one.

The Russian bloc is also something I feel kind of weird about including since I don't speak Russian and thus have no idea who their community backed at all.

Either way, I'll show the numbers with both versions of these factors.

This leaves:
11 Unaffiliated voters, 13 if Malcanis and Unforgiven Storm are considered independent, 15 if Russian doesn't count
13 from the 3 major 0.0 blocs, 11 without Malc/Unforgiven
5 Wormhole
2 Russian (if you count it)

That means anyone who didn't want to vote a null bloc candidate had, AT MOST 15 people to choose from and a 14 slot ballot to fill out, and that's before you even start to factor in the obvious qualitty of candidates (think the likes of riverini, who stopped campaigning after the false positive thing in the primary, and psychobitch who was psychobitch). Account for some personal choices and the general name visibility you'd get from Podside and maybe even your blog, and it's not hard to see how you got elected at all, actually.

"Look any reason why you need to talk like that? I have now reported you. I dont need to listen to your bad tone. If you cant have a grown up conversation then leave the thread["

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#94 - 2013-05-08 08:29:40 UTC
If you look at the numbers, I really didn't get a lot of support from the HBC. Sort R.U.N.N.O.F.T. with ~75% of their "voting power". I got maybe a couple of hundred effective votes from them - less than I got from the "Ripard Slate".



Disclaimer: I am bad at numbers.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Snow Axe
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#95 - 2013-05-08 08:33:30 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
If you look at the numbers, I really didn't get a lot of support from the HBC. Sort R.U.N.N.O.F.T. with ~75% of their "voting power". I got maybe a couple of hundred effective votes from them - less than I got from the "Ripard Slate".


Well, the HBC didn't have a lot of votes on what I'm presuming is their official ticket in the first place - 1639 votes are abysmal. That said, Banlish getting shunted down below Sort and Sala is probably the only reason you even got any of them.

Still though, my list was sort of trying to capture a picture of what things were like going into the election - we know now that you really didn't get a lot of bloc support at all (and that you didn't need it either), but going into the election that was kind of up in the air. I do find it kind of funny that you were higher ranked on the CFC ticket than the HBC ticket though :v

"Look any reason why you need to talk like that? I have now reported you. I dont need to listen to your bad tone. If you cant have a grown up conversation then leave the thread["

Green Gambit
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#96 - 2013-05-08 08:39:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Green Gambit
mynnna wrote:
Basically, I'm saying that I think the people who were claiming that STV is all about rigging it for nullsec (ya'll know who you are) can put down their tinfoil hats. If anything we're under represented. Blink


Actually the biggest mouthpiece for "null will control the council with STV' was your alliance leader, on the fan-site where you're also a writer.


http://themittani.com/features/csm8-election-early-analysis wrote:
I advocated against a STV system as I believe it would allow nullsec to completely rig the election with maximal efficiency


Oops!
Caitlyn Tufy
Perkone
Caldari State
#97 - 2013-05-08 08:47:30 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
In before someone who's good at maths (not me) uses this to prove I shouldn't have been elected.

nn all.


No math or proof required for that, it's a well known fact. Big smile
Snow Axe
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#98 - 2013-05-08 08:49:58 UTC
Green Gambit wrote:
Oops!


He advocated against it during CSM 6, which had just been by-and-large swept by nullsec with just FPTP. With those circumstances it probably would have been worst-case scenario.

"Look any reason why you need to talk like that? I have now reported you. I dont need to listen to your bad tone. If you cant have a grown up conversation then leave the thread["

Green Gambit
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#99 - 2013-05-08 08:59:04 UTC
Frying Doom wrote:
Out of curiosity has anyone run the base numbers through to see what the council would have looked liked using FPTP?


As already stated you can't, but to give a more concrete example - take a look at mynnna and Kesper North.

Obviously the Goons were told in this election to vote for the two in that order, and if you look at the run-downs you can see all the run-off votes from mynnna going to Kesper using STV.

Looking at the first-place votes though, mynnna gets 5782 and Kesper gets 918. So using the STV vote to derive FPTP results means you get a result where mynnna is elected and Kesper falls short.

Whereas looking at this as a pure FPTP election, using the above numbers Goons control 6700 votes. The Goons are also really good at exit-polling their members. So after they get enough exit poll results - say 4000 - for mynnna, they tell their members to vote for Kesper - which gives Kesper 2700 votes and gets him a seat on the council too.

The Goons could've done this for CSM7 - and probably managed to get 3 seats (maybe 4?) on the council from FPTP - if their vote hadn't been part of Mittens vanity "get most votes ever" project.

Note that this is why STV is much better than FPTP for these elections. Everybody gets the same ability to transfer votes that the Goons have, without needing to setup web sites, exit poll and alter voting instructions as the election proceeds. The big danger with FPTP was that more null-sec alliances started copying the Goons and the council become almost completely null-sec dominated.
Snow Axe
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#100 - 2013-05-08 09:02:47 UTC
Green Gambit wrote:
The big danger with FPTP was that more null-sec alliances started copying the Goons and the council become almost completely null-sec dominated.


And how does this explain CSM 7? CSM 6 was null dominated as it was the first time null ever really came out in force to vote for the CSM. CSM 7 on the other hand was about as diverse a CSM as you can get without picking the members by hand.

"Look any reason why you need to talk like that? I have now reported you. I dont need to listen to your bad tone. If you cant have a grown up conversation then leave the thread["