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Dev Blog: CSM8 Election Statistics

First post First post
Author
CCP Dolan
C C P
C C P Alliance
#1 - 2013-05-07 21:21:47 UTC  |  Edited by: CCP Eterne
Check out our latest Dev Blog from CCP Veritas, covering just some of the statistical analysis of the CSM8 elections and our switch to a Single Transferable Vote System. You can find the blog here.

CCP Dolan | Community Representative

Twitter: @CCPDolan

Gooby pls

CCP Dolan
C C P
C C P Alliance
#2 - 2013-05-07 21:22:08 UTC  |  Edited by: CCP Dolan
I would like to personally apologize for the delay in the publication of this blog and the full list of ballots. In preparing for the blog we discovered that 3 of the 49,702 votes had somehow entered the same candidates into multiple preference slots. This action provides no advantage in a Wright-STV election, but we wanted to take the time to figure out how these votes were generated and that they were not indicative of a larger problem.

After some extensive testing we are fairly certain that, while fiddling with the ballot website, a user(s) found a way to modify his own vote submission in the backend of the ballot that created duplication of candidates in their ballot. This was limited to only their own individual ballot selection and had no effect on the outcome of the election. We will be sure that we add a check for this ballot error in the future. Because candidate duplication provides no advantage in a Wright-STV election, we have not removed these ballots, and they can still be found in the blog linked above.

CCP Dolan | Community Representative

Twitter: @CCPDolan

Gooby pls

Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#3 - 2013-05-07 21:25:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Varius Xeral
First.

This space for sale.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal

Two step
Aperture Harmonics
#4 - 2013-05-07 21:26:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Two step
I did a quick analysis on the ballot data. My script is at http://dontshootx.com/tsvote.txt

The output:

Quote:
Bloc - CFC (Kaleb Rysode, mynnna, Kesper North)
Top Votes 5287 (10% of votes)
Complete Votes 4423 (8% of votes)
Partial Votes 0
Solo Votes 113
Total Votes 9823 (19% of votes)

Bloc - Wormhole (Cipreh, Nathan Jameson, Chitsa Jason, James Arget, Ayeson)
Top Votes 1535 (3% of votes)
Complete Votes 1339 (2% of votes)
Partial Votes 4383
Solo Votes 670
Total Votes 7927 (15% of votes)

Bloc - HBC (Sort Dragon, Banlish, Sala Cameron)
Top Votes 2728 (5% of votes)
Complete Votes 7917 (15% of votes)
Partial Votes 0
Solo Votes 312
Total Votes 10957 (22% of votes)

Bloc - Trebor (Ripard Teg, Roc Wieler, Nathan Jameson, Trebor Daehdoow, Malcanis, Mangala Solaris, Mike Azariah, Korvin, Corebloodbrothers, James Arget, Ali Aras)
Top Votes 21 (0% of votes)
Complete Votes 579 (1% of votes)
Partial Votes 22276
Solo Votes 2760
Total Votes 25636 (51% of votes)

Bloc - Russians (Greene Lee, Korvin)
Top Votes 1128 (2% of votes)
Complete Votes 1559 (3% of votes)
Partial Votes 0
Solo Votes 987
Total Votes 3674 (7% of votes)

Bloc - N3 (progodlegend, Travis Musgrat)
Top Votes 1425 (2% of votes)
Complete Votes 4192 (8% of votes)
Partial Votes 0
Solo Votes 382
Total Votes 5999 (12% of votes)

Bloc - Provi (Corebloodbrothers, Ali Aras)
Top Votes 1230 (2% of votes)
Complete Votes 4457 (8% of votes)
Partial Votes 0
Solo Votes 610
Total Votes 6297 (12% of votes)

Non Bloc Votes 12569 (25% of votes)


Notes on the output: Partial Votes are where 3 or more of the "bloc" members were on a given ballot. Top Votes are when *all* the bloc members are at the top of a ballot, in any order.

Quote from later in the thread, for the lazy:

Two step wrote:
There were some questions on twitter about what order people were elected. There are a number of ways to compute this, one way is to run the election for 1 seat, then 2, then 3, etc. If you do that, you get this order:

1) mynnna
2) Ripard Teg
3) Mangala Solaris
4) Sort Dragon
5) Chitsa Jason
6) Trebor Daehdoow
7) Ali Aras
8) Kesper North
9) progodlegend
10) James Arget
11) Korvin
12) Sala Cameron
13) Malcanis
14) Mike Azariah

CSM 7 Secretary CSM 6 Alternate Delegate @two_step_eve on Twitter My Blog

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#5 - 2013-05-07 21:30:08 UTC
In before someone who's good at maths (not me) uses this to prove I shouldn't have been elected.

nn all.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#6 - 2013-05-07 21:31:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Steve Ronuken
If you want to see the script output, but can't be bothered running it yourself:

http://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/resources/csmvoteoutput.txt

(I asked for this. Then got impatient after around 5 seconds and ran it myself.)

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

CCP Dolan
C C P
C C P Alliance
#7 - 2013-05-07 21:34:34 UTC
Steve Ronuken wrote:
Any chance of a quick breakdown of which rounds people were eliminated int? (Or will I have to go and use the code to find that out?)


I'm sure some kind soul will post the output of CCP Veritas's program which does it quite well. I know several CSM's already have the output.

CCP Dolan | Community Representative

Twitter: @CCPDolan

Gooby pls

Two step
Aperture Harmonics
#8 - 2013-05-07 21:34:48 UTC
Steve Ronuken wrote:
Any chance of a quick breakdown of which rounds people were eliminated int? (Or will I have to go and use the code to find that out?)


The output of CCP Veritas' script is at http://dontshootx.com/auditLog.txt if you want to see it. Trebor has a modified script that outputs a little more detail, but I will let him link it.

CSM 7 Secretary CSM 6 Alternate Delegate @two_step_eve on Twitter My Blog

Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#9 - 2013-05-07 21:37:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Steve Ronuken
CCP Dolan wrote:
Steve Ronuken wrote:
Any chance of a quick breakdown of which rounds people were eliminated int? (Or will I have to go and use the code to find that out?)


I'm sure some kind soul will post the output of CCP Veritas's program which does it quite well. I know several CSM's already have the output.



Two step wrote:
Steve Ronuken wrote:
Any chance of a quick breakdown of which rounds people were eliminated int? (Or will I have to go and use the code to find that out?)


The output of CCP Veritas' script is at http://dontshootx.com/auditLog.txt if you want to see it. Trebor has a modified script that outputs a little more detail, but I will let him link it.



I got impatient (after about 5 seconds Blink ) and ran it myself.

Order of Elimination (First eliminated, to last eliminated):

1 DaeHan Minhyok
2 Cipreh
3 Kaleb Rysode
4 Awol Aurix
5 Artctura
6 Ayeson
7 PsychoBitch
8 Roc Wieler
9 riverini
10 Travis Musgrat
11 Unforgiven Storm
12 Corebloodbrothers
13 Steve Ronuken
14 Psychotic Monk
15 Greene Lee
16 Banlish
17 Nathan Jameson


Edit: Note:
Something to note: Just because a person was eliminated in a round, doesn't mean that a CSM with that many more people would include them. A 15 person CSM would include Banlish, not Nathan Jameson.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

Bagehi
Habitual Euthanasia
Pandemic Legion
#10 - 2013-05-07 21:38:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Bagehi
Malcanis wrote:
In before someone who's good at maths (not me) uses this to prove I shouldn't have been elected.

nn all.

Looks like you were voted in by your own voters, plus a couple hundred from high sec and a couple hundred from HBC in round 9. Congrats!
Dierdra Vaal
Interstellar Stargate Syndicate
#11 - 2013-05-07 21:44:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Dierdra Vaal
Quote:
['mynnna', 'Kesper North', 'Kaleb Rysode', 'Sort Dragon', 'Sala Cameron', 'Banlish', 'Artctura', 'Malcanis', 'Unforgiven Storm', 'Awol Aurix', 'DaeHan Minhyok', 'Mangala Solaris', 'Psychotic Monk', 'James Arget']


Do you have any stats about the percentage of people who voted AND are in corps and alliances that hold sovreignty AND whose votes were different than the above collection (ignoring candidate order), relative to the amount of people who voted AND are in corps and alliances that hold sovreignty?

Or in other words: how many 0.0 pilots disregarderd bloc voting orders?

Veto #205

Director Emeritus at EVE University

CSM1 delegate, CSM3 chairman and CSM5 vice-chairman

Evesterdam organiser and CSM Vote Match founder

Co-Author of the Galactic Party Planning Guide

EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#12 - 2013-05-07 21:47:16 UTC
Dierdra Vaal wrote:
Quote:
['mynnna', 'Kesper North', 'Kaleb Rysode', 'Sort Dragon', 'Sala Cameron', 'Banlish', 'Artctura', 'Malcanis', 'Unforgiven Storm', 'Awol Aurix', 'DaeHan Minhyok', 'Mangala Solaris', 'Psychotic Monk', 'James Arget']


Do you have any stats about the percentage of people who voted AND are in corps and alliances that hold sovreignty AND whose votes were different than the above collection (ignoring candidate order), relative to the amount of people who voted AND are in corps and alliances that hold sovreignty?

Or in other words: how many 0.0 pilots disregarderd bloc voting orders?

Ballots are anonymized.
CCP Fozzie
C C P
C C P Alliance
#13 - 2013-05-07 21:47:37 UTC
Dierdra Vaal wrote:
Quote:
['mynnna', 'Kesper North', 'Kaleb Rysode', 'Sort Dragon', 'Sala Cameron', 'Banlish', 'Artctura', 'Malcanis', 'Unforgiven Storm', 'Awol Aurix', 'DaeHan Minhyok', 'Mangala Solaris', 'Psychotic Monk', 'James Arget']


Do you have any stats about the percentage of people who voted AND are in corps and alliances that hold sovreignty AND whose votes were different than the above collection (ignoring candidate order), relative to the amount of people who voted AND are in corps and alliances that hold sovreignty?

Or in other words: how many 0.0 pilots disregarderd bloc voting orders?


We don't have any way to tie votes to characters or accounts. It's fully anonymous.

Game Designer | Team Five-0

Twitter: @CCP_Fozzie
Twitch chat: ccp_fozzie

Benny Ohu
Chaotic Tranquility
#14 - 2013-05-07 21:48:10 UTC
ah, the csm tags changed hands

i hope you drycleaned them
CCP Dolan
C C P
C C P Alliance
#15 - 2013-05-07 21:50:12 UTC
Dierdra Vaal wrote:
Quote:
['mynnna', 'Kesper North', 'Kaleb Rysode', 'Sort Dragon', 'Sala Cameron', 'Banlish', 'Artctura', 'Malcanis', 'Unforgiven Storm', 'Awol Aurix', 'DaeHan Minhyok', 'Mangala Solaris', 'Psychotic Monk', 'James Arget']


Do you have any stats about the percentage of people who voted AND are in corps and alliances that hold sovreignty AND whose votes were different than the above collection (ignoring candidate order), relative to the amount of people who voted AND are in corps and alliances that hold sovreignty?

Or in other words: how many 0.0 pilots disregarderd bloc voting orders?


Our voting database is completely anonymous. We know what accounts voted, but we cannot associate an account with their ballot. We want ensure that our ballots are always secret ballots.

CCP Dolan | Community Representative

Twitter: @CCPDolan

Gooby pls

Kadl
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#16 - 2013-05-07 21:52:23 UTC
CCP Veritas wrote:
Now that a voters opinion is more likely to actually count towards the results of the election, our next big push will be towards visibility and voter turnout for the CSM9 elections.


Thank you for at least mentioning this.

Please also consider improving or training people on the voting method (not voting system). Some possible improvements are: 1) reviewing the UI now that you have time, 2) using the UI for a poll about something else (silly is fine), so that people can be comfortable with it, 3) suggested ballot setups (a link to a filled out ballot that someone can modify).
Tanaka Aiko
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#17 - 2013-05-07 21:55:03 UTC
Nathan was eliminated last, the WH bloc almost got 3 candidates on 5...
Salpun
Global Telstar Federation Offices
#18 - 2013-05-07 21:56:14 UTC
Kadl wrote:
CCP Veritas wrote:
Now that a voters opinion is more likely to actually count towards the results of the election, our next big push will be towards visibility and voter turnout for the CSM9 elections.


Thank you for at least mentioning this.

Please also consider improving or training people on the voting method (not voting system). Some possible improvements are: 1) reviewing the UI now that you have time, 2) using the UI for a poll about something else (silly is fine), so that people can be comfortable with it, 3) suggested ballot setups (a link to a filled out ballot that someone can modify).

A little things suggestion website and vote would be a great turnout and training test.

If i dont know something about EVE. I check https://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/ISK_The_Guide

See you around the universe.

mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#19 - 2013-05-07 21:59:05 UTC  |  Edited by: mynnna
Null bloc votes, as identified by Two Step: 9823+10957+5999 = 26799, 53.9% of the votes

Null bloc candidates: Five (Myself, Kesper, Sort, Sala and Progodlegend), which is about 35% of the council. I suppose you could count Malcanis as well, as the HBC ballot was instrumental in electing him and he is technically part of the bloc, but even that's only 42%.

Basically, I'm saying that I think the people who were claiming that STV is all about rigging it for nullsec (ya'll know who you are) can put down their tinfoil hats. If anything we're under represented. Blink

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#20 - 2013-05-07 22:01:37 UTC
all hail mynnna First Citizen of the CSM with his momentous victory over Ripard for the #1 slot
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