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The Shrinking Sandbox - Eve by numbers

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Author
0bama Barack Hussein
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#1121 - 2015-06-09 14:00:32 UTC
Master Kent'sslave wrote:
@ CCP

Increasing your subscription fees for induvidual countries and reasoning it with tax changes that was implimented 4 years ago us the reason is kinda speeding up this process.... just saying....


Wrong thread / part of the forum?

Just saying, maybe you are right, but take it to the arena where they can see it (I somehow doubt that they may have stopped reading this thread long ago).
Speedkermit Damo
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#1122 - 2015-06-09 16:09:34 UTC
Sgt Ocker wrote:

NB; Eve isn't dying, it is just surviving with less players.


Eve is on a diet.

Protect me from knowing what I don't need to know. Protect me from even knowing that there are things to know that I don't know. Protect me from knowing that I decided not to know about the things that I decided not to know about. Amen.

Seven Koskanaiken
Shadow Legions.
#1123 - 2015-06-09 17:03:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Seven Koskanaiken
Malcanis wrote:
For the millionth time: there is no mechanic short of GM fiat that will let a small casual group hold or gain sov in the face of determined opposition from a large, well organised one. Any complaints about a sov system based on that objection are a waste of time.


The solution is to have something to occupy the big groups (drifters space, jove space, whatever), so they are distracted away from the small holders in the first place and fight each other. Ideally bad space being fought over by several small bad alliances, while valuable space would be fought over by large competent alliances. Opposed to what the situation is now, where most all sov is worth only being held by the medicore, with large rich groups appearing sansha style on small guy's borders and running farming incursions into it to stave off boredom because there's literally nothing left to do or achieve.
0bama Barack Hussein
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#1124 - 2015-06-09 18:27:29 UTC
Seven Koskanaiken wrote:
Malcanis wrote:
For the millionth time: there is no mechanic short of GM fiat that will let a small casual group hold or gain sov in the face of determined opposition from a large, well organised one. Any complaints about a sov system based on that objection are a waste of time.


The solution is to have something to occupy the big groups (drifters space, jove space, whatever), so they are distracted away from the small holders in the first place and fight each other. Ideally bad space being fought over by several small bad alliances, while valuable space would be fought over by large competent alliances. Opposed to what the situation is now, where most all sov is worth only being held by the medicore, with large rich groups appearing sansha style on small guy's borders and running farming incursions into it to stave off boredom because there's literally nothing left to do or achieve.


I see that sov should be made much more rewarded everywhere, and wealth of null sec more equally spreaded, so that even biggest groups would need to stretch more than they can handle, if they really wanna "win EvE".

Would be perfect time for betrayal of NAP too between largest groups, when other group has their pilots elsewhere. We might see something to happen then, even, at least we could hope something to happen more likely than now....
Sgt Ocker
What Corp is it
#1125 - 2015-06-09 23:34:30 UTC
GankYou wrote:
HeXxploiT wrote:
Why do people keep repeating low numbers? Almost 37k users on at this moment. Every weekend it looks the same to me. Think you guys look at times when timbuktu is the prime timezone.Big smile


He means the running average.

We broke 40k for the first time in months on Saturday of May the 2nd. Needs more oomph with Sov 5.0.1.

And Citadel stations.

And Walking in Stations.

Blink

Scipio Artelius wrote:
Sgt Ocker wrote:
HeXxploiT wrote:
Why do people keep repeating low numbers? Almost 37k users on at this moment. Every weekend it looks the same to me. Think you guys look at times when timbuktu is the prime timezone.Big smile

37K online - For an hour or so - Once a week.

http://youtu.be/h-jfvjMoe9Y (3:56 - 4:12 min).

It's 2014 data so might be slightly outdated by changes this year. If it's inaccurate I don't know by how much. A lot of people seem to comment 20% shedding of active players in the last year. The PCU count is fairly limited when looking at overall player activity.


There is only one chart, and it is this - http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

Select the "All" timeframe.

Everything else is sugarcoating.

Forum activity at all time low as well probably - can be gleaned from Eve-search.com. Market Discussion activity is down - there used to be new threads for loans on a daily, even hourly, basis.

Such threads - https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=170767 happened during the period of low ebb in 2012-YC114.

What occurred in Dec of 2012 that shot up PCU from 46k to 57k in one month, though? Smile

Actually, the ALL time frame is the sugar coating - It says average of 37K per day.
Reality is, we haven't seen 37K average per day for a few years.
We might get 37K, one day a week for a couple of hours.

"What happened in 2012" - Retribution happened. In those days thousands of players who had not played for a length of time came back to see what the expansion brought. Some stayed, some just let subs expire again. Retribution I think saw many hang around as it actually contributed something to the game.

We don't get that anymore, there are no expansions, just half finished beta addons - Who wants to bother re-subbing an account every six weeks just to see if anything new and exciting was introduced?

I just get emails now from afk friends, asking if it is worth re-subbing. Judging by recent happenings, the answer is going to remain "not really" for a while yet. (Currently out of the 30 odd players I interacted closely with for years, there are 3 of us playing but with far less characters and activity than ever before)

My opinions are mine.

  If you don't like them or disagree with me that's OK.- - - - - - Just don't bother Hating - I don't care

It really is getting harder and harder to justify $23 a month for each sub.

Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#1126 - 2015-06-10 06:33:51 UTC
Sgt Ocker wrote:
(...)

I just get emails now from afk friends, asking if it is worth re-subbing. Judging by recent happenings, the answer is going to remain "not really" for a while yet. (Currently out of the 30 odd players I interacted closely with for years, there are 3 of us playing but with far less characters and activity than ever before)


That's the quintessence of bittervet: When the people gone outnumber those who still play. For years I've been the only player still subscribbed of those who I met in my first times...

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you

Nevase Prometeus
Fuel Blocks for Dante
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#1127 - 2015-06-10 10:13:28 UTC
As long as EVE cannot charm new players to stay. While CCP hold their policy (PVP anothers who don't want to fight is not bullied) .So how could new players stand against them ? No chance . That's why new players come and gone . Who want to pay and be in the bottom of food chains.

Like a glass of water that had tiny crack in bottom.When water is dropping quickly than new water you put in. At last that glass will be empty.
Kaivar Lancer
Doomheim
#1128 - 2015-06-10 10:35:56 UTC
TBH, one of the main reasons I resubbed was BECAUSE of lower player numbers. There's less competition for resources, making gameplay less aggravating.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#1129 - 2015-06-10 11:05:17 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Sgt Ocker wrote:
GankYou wrote:
He means the running average.

We broke 40k for the first time in months on Saturday of May the 2nd. Needs more oomph with Sov 5.0.1.

And Citadel stations.

And Walking in Stations.

Blink

Scipio Artelius wrote:
Sgt Ocker wrote:

37K online - For an hour or so - Once a week.

http://youtu.be/h-jfvjMoe9Y (3:56 - 4:12 min).

It's 2014 data so might be slightly outdated by changes this year. If it's inaccurate I don't know by how much. A lot of people seem to comment 20% shedding of active players in the last year. The PCU count is fairly limited when looking at overall player activity.


There is only one chart, and it is this - http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

Select the "All" timeframe.

Everything else is sugarcoating.

Forum activity at all time low as well probably - can be gleaned from Eve-search.com. Market Discussion activity is down - there used to be new threads for loans on a daily, even hourly, basis.

Such threads - https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=170767 happened during the period of low ebb in 2012-YC114.

What occurred in Dec of 2012 that shot up PCU from 46k to 57k in one month, though? Smile

Actually, the ALL time frame is the sugar coating - It says average of 37K per day.
Reality is, we haven't seen 37K average per day for a few years.
We might get 37K, one day a week for a couple of hours.


All-time 37k average is about right - we had 9k people back in 2004.

Quote:
"What happened in 2012" - Retribution happened. In those days thousands of players who had not played for a length of time came back to see what the expansion brought. Some stayed, some just let subs expire again. Retribution I think saw many hang around as it actually contributed something to the game.


Cool beans, I was AFK back then - will research Retribution expansion.

What happened in Feb of 2014 tho? From 57k PCU to 39k in two months. Smile

P.S. Even gameplay expansions like the Retribution only adds 10-15k PCU - internet spaceships have a peak threshold.

The logical & profitable direction to pursue right now would be Walking & Interaction in Stations - Meet DUST people there and get 100k PCU.

Such an intricate avatar creation & detailing system, but the Door still remains closed. X
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#1130 - 2015-06-10 13:41:19 UTC
GankYou wrote:
(...)

What happened in Feb of 2014 tho? From 57k PCU to 39k in two months. Smile

(...)


February 2014 had a population spike after the BRB-5B battle, but it faded out soon. You can see how new character creation also spiked that month, with as much as 11,000 new characters created in a single day.

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#1131 - 2015-06-10 13:43:51 UTC
Thought so. Smile

The whole 2013-2014 looks to be the capital bubble Era.
Lloyd Roses
Artificial Memories
#1132 - 2015-06-10 13:56:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Lloyd Roses
Bienator II wrote:
Sgt Ocker wrote:
I came across this quite interesting quote from CCP Falcon and with all the recent changes was wondering if he feels the new NulSec meets his stated opinion or does it need some amending.

Eve is now further away from what he describes than ever before.
The amount of "rules" are overwhelming the sandbox element.

what makes you think a sandbox with rules is not a sandbox?


Not sure if that's refering to rules or mechanics. The one rule in game known to me is *don't impersonate others* (not even in character?), since I'm unaware of other rules that doesn't sound to restrictive to me.

GankYou wrote:
Such an intricate avatar creation & detailing system, but the Door still remains closed. X


I quite don't like the current *shadows*. I don't want that door to open until we get more beautiful ones.
Frostys Virpio
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#1133 - 2015-06-10 14:32:50 UTC
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
GankYou wrote:
(...)

What happened in Feb of 2014 tho? From 57k PCU to 39k in two months. Smile

(...)


February 2014 had a population spike after the BRB-5B battle, but it faded out soon. You can see how new character creation also spiked that month, with as much as 11,000 new characters created in a single day.


They all wanted to be among the fierce warrior who waged battle in a supercap brawl over a contested system not knowing what getting to that point involved. How many decided they were not investing X amount of time in case an event that happens once in a blue moon do happen again before the server gets shut down because it was effectively playing the odds?

CCP has no control over such "advertisement" but since it was kind of promising the moon, people were probably expecting the moon and CCP just can't deliver that without crushing the rest of the game imo...
Hemmo Paskiainen
#1134 - 2015-06-10 15:01:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Hemmo Paskiainen
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
GankYou wrote:
(...)

What happened in Feb of 2014 tho? From 57k PCU to 39k in two months. Smile

(...)


February 2014 had a population spike after the BRB-5B battle, but it faded out soon. You can see how new character creation also spiked that month, with as much as 11,000 new characters created in a single day.


That's a lot of disappointing players. ("Hey Bro! Yoow wassup? Have you seen that cool article about EVE Online? Yeaah, i have even tried a trail but it is disappointing! Oh really? Yeah! Oh thanks than im not going to try it ether".)

Eve's core design has been flawed from 2004. And it shares probably the same reason why EVE never has become a mainstream MMO.

0.0 is the center of pvp with "the most dangerous eve space as advertised"
Yet it is the place where it is the most difficult to get the right equipment for that pvp that you would like to
It makes it more time consuming and have several negative psychological drawbacks to have fun
Based on time doing, from my experience, 0.0 means: PVP 40% / Recouping ISK 30% / Logistics 30%
Based on gained fun: from my experience, 0.0 means: PVP 100% / Recouping ISK 10% / Logistics -200%
It is rigged to be merely be disliked than liked, due to the fact that in my mind, i experience more negativity from the activities that make the fun activities possible. (glad my proposed reduce warpspeed change from 2009 are finally here to spice things up) So that comes basically down on that i personally only play when i have a positive mindset and i do not mind doing stuff that i dont like first, to have a chance to receive fun or (very) good fun later. Which is basically a very different motivation why generally people play a video game in the first place. (and explanes the average EVEplayer Mentality, and proves why the core is broken)

The only solution that could boost EVE hugely, would be a reverse of the current industrial productivity industry. It should be cheaper to make things in 0.0 than in high sec.... there's also more risk, rite!? With a material accessibility overhaul (which is almost complete). And hopefully a very perfect balanced end result, industry should shift to 0.0 and save the day. This will all depend on the upcoming station overhaul/citadel introduction. That could be the biggest game changer the game could have seen in a looooong time.

I should starting to bill CCP for my intellectual services. I have always wondered how they fail to see how they could gaming in the sandbox of EEV soo much easier with just a few changes. Like with the Tech, Mom's blue donuts, tooooooooo loooong to really make it happen! Imagine EVE 100k users (+subscriptions) a day? Why isnt there? It isnt appealing enough. Why is that? It is incredible fun when you are in it, rite? Why isnt fun? (Hilmar's fanfest line) because: It is rigged to be merely be disliked than liked, due to the fact that in my mind, i experience more negativity from the activities that make the fun activities possible

(almost forgot: this is not a "pls unnerf jumpcap" post". If it was me, Supers turned in structure bashers only)

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?

Sgt Ocker
What Corp is it
#1135 - 2015-06-11 01:09:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Sgt Ocker
0bama Barack Hussein said; Wrong thread / part of the forum?

Maybe or maybe not, for me to sub an account for 6 months is $92.60 as we get charged in US dollars and our exchange rate is pretty low right now. Around Xmas time when I last paid subs, it was $76.
I used to pay for a couple of my accounts with $. Not any more, if i can't easily plex an account it goes inactive or up for sale (I've shed 7 so far and combined a few into a single account). I have plenty of isk for now but it will eventually run out.

-- - -- - -- - -- - -- - --
Seven Koskanaiken said; The solution ...... boredom and nothing left to do...

True but with a few minor changes Fozziesov could change all that.
This is a few changes I thought might open up Sov to more groups and bring some exciting content

-- - -- - -- - -- - -- - --
0bama Barack Hussein said; I see that sov should be made much more rewarded everywhere....... Would be perfect time for betrayal of NAP too between largest groups.

This would really bring things to life. Problem is, the betrayers have a lot to lose if they fail, so "don't rock the boat". Fear of not being able to hold ones own space is what keeps a lot of the blues tied together - In large numbers we can conquer all, alone we may fail. (replacing "may" with "would", in some circumstances is more accurate)

-- - -- - -- - -- - -- - --
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai said; That's the quintessence of bittervet: When the people gone outnumber those who still play. For years I've been the only player still subscribbed of those who I met in my first times...

That is a shame - Do you think it would be worth encouraging them to start playing again? Is there enough on offer to entice some of the old school back?

-- - -- - -- - -- - -- - --
Nevase Prometeus said; As long as EVE cannot charm new players to stay

Eve does entice new players and a lot of them. It is the getting them to stay that is the problem.
It is a special kind of person who is willing to be on the bottom rung of a ladder for the time it takes to train to a level that can bring some level of success.
Brave did a pretty good job of getting new players involved at a level where the game was fun for rookies. Problem is, while losing more than you win can be fun for a while it is not fun over long periods of time. It is also only fun for a limited group of players and although Brave number over 10k, they are still only a minority and a fraction of overall subscriptions.

-- - -- - -- - -- - -- - --
Kaivar Lancer said; TBH, one of the main reasons I resubbed was BECAUSE of lower player numbers. There's less competition for resources, making gameplay less aggravating.

Funny but i sort of have to agree with you. I do like going out to do stuff, other than PVP, with less competition. Pick the right time of day and making isk is all but risk free.
The downside is, it is also much harder to find PVP when I want it.

-- - -- - -- - -- - -- - --
GankYou said; All-time 37k average is about right - we had 9k people back in 2004.

The " 37K average" like 9k in 2004 is not relevant. What is relevant is how many are online playing the game 24/7/365 "now" not a few years ago.
That number currently, is far below the 37K average and the fact the "average" comes from peak numbers of 3 or 4 years ago is a very real indication - There is something fundamentally wrong.

-- - -- - -- - -- - -- - --
GankYou said; The logical & profitable direction to pursue right now would be Walking & Interaction in Stations - Meet DUST people there and get 100k PCU.

Seriously? You think walking into a room to virtually meet others would get 100K playing?
While walking around in and interacting with others in station could be interesting - It is not a valid way to entice new players into the game.
What is needed is players in space doing things, whether it be killing other players or just running escalations, we need space ships in space.

-- - -- - -- - -- - -- - --
Lloyd Roses said; Not sure if that's refering to rules or mechanics

Game mechanics "are" rules, they are what drive or limit content.
Upcoming sov mechanics (rules) will limit content to the current meta of "bigger group wins" - So is introducing rules that limit content.

-- - -- - -- - -- - -- - --
Frostys Virpio said; They all wanted to be among the fierce warrior who waged battle....... CCP has no control over such "advertisement"......

I've often wondered how many of those who started playing as a result of a one off event like BR continued and are still here a year and a half later.

My opinions are mine.

  If you don't like them or disagree with me that's OK.- - - - - - Just don't bother Hating - I don't care

It really is getting harder and harder to justify $23 a month for each sub.

0bama Barack Hussein
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#1136 - 2015-06-11 10:24:56 UTC
I think the issue here is he wants total SOLO-option (like in ED), and no interaction with possible enemies, without understanding how everything in EvE´s "kinda small" space is tied together by shared markets and so always constant Player vs Player...
0bama Barack Hussein
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#1137 - 2015-06-11 10:56:14 UTC
Sgt Ocker wrote:
0bama Barack ******* said; Wrong thread / part of the forum?

Maybe or maybe not, for me to sub an account for 6 months is $92.60 as we get charged in US dollars and our exchange rate is pretty low right now. Around Xmas time when I last paid subs, it was $76.
I used to pay for a couple of my accounts with $. Not any more, if i can't easily plex an account it goes inactive or up for sale (I've shed 7 so far and combined a few into a single account). I have plenty of isk for now but it will eventually run out.


I guess I have played enough years to not bother anymore about exchange rates and such, but just payed up (as much as I had to run 3 accounts that were my multi-boxing operational limit, until I learned to PLEX my accounts in FW, now I´m down to 1 active account after sov changes, this).

EvE relies heavy on servers, that cost a lot of money to run.
Also, CCP as a company has no other games really to even mention about that I know, so whole staff is there pretty much just for EvE, what I consider not cost efficient...

2 big reasons why EvE is subscription based, and will also come more expensive during time with inflation of RL money and with possibly dropping subscription numbers, this equation surely must not have come as a suprise to you?

Sgt Ocker wrote:

0bama Barack ******* said; I see that sov should be made much more rewarded everywhere....... Would be perfect time for betrayal of NAP too between largest groups.

This would really bring things to life. Problem is, the betrayers have a lot to lose if they fail, so "don't rock the boat". Fear of not being able to hold ones own space is what keeps a lot of the blues tied together - In large numbers we can conquer all, alone we may fail. (replacing "may" with "would", in some circumstances is more accurate)



I´m pretty sure basic paranoia of "who makes first strike has upper hand" will work things out in time Cool

And well CCP/EvE would not have anything to lose (compared to situation now) if they went with giving all sov systems pretty much equally as good benefits, if it forces big coalitions to spread into thousands of systems (in case they wanna "control it all"), would they?

Meaning, not even largest coalition(s) could keep thousands of systems all the time manned with enough pilots to defend succesfully against even smaller attacks.

And if they tried, well they might be betrayed in NAP (and so would all need to retreat back to fight for their homes). Pirate
ISD Dorrim Barstorlode
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#1138 - 2015-06-11 11:19:12 UTC
Removed some off topic posts.

ISD Dorrim Barstorlode

Senior Lead

Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)

Interstellar Services Department

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#1139 - 2015-06-11 11:22:04 UTC
Sgt Ocker wrote:

GankYou said; All-time 37k average is about right - we had 9k people back in 2004.

The " 37K average" like 9k in 2004 is not relevant. What is relevant is how many are online playing the game 24/7/365 "now" not a few years ago.
That number currently, is far below the 37K average and the fact the "average" comes from peak numbers of 3 or 4 years ago is a very real indication - There is something fundamentally wrong.


Weighted-averages are always relevant.

Perhaps you didn't start the game with 5k PCU, well I did and it was FUN back then as it now. Blink I acknowledged that the current activity is back to 2008 levels - no need to be overly emo about it.

The issue is being addressed with Sov 5.0, which you think is "irrelevant" again. Big smile
0bama Barack Hussein
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#1140 - 2015-06-11 11:45:24 UTC  |  Edited by: 0bama Barack Hussein
GankYou wrote:

Perhaps you didn't start the game with 5k PCU, well I did and it was FUN back then as it now. Blink I acknowledged that the current activity is back to 2008 levels - no need to be overly emo about it.



THIS.

EvE has survived also before with smaller numbers, now people panic, go emotional, and even so far they see other games like ED or SC as some kind of a "threath" to EvE (eventhough both are totally different kind of games and not even subscription based, so one can afford to buy them and still keep playing EvE)...

Sure CCP needs to stop downwards trend, but it is only up to CCP themselves, to be more precise, how well they can lure players to stay (even if they would play also other games, only enemy to CCP can come from within as a bad judgements).

These kind of threads are what CCP needs to get ideas how to improve this game, though sure can only hope they read these (naturally they have prime directive of not effecting natural evolution of threads, so how would we know if they listen?)...