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Countering Risk Aversion

First post
Author
Alpheias
Tactical Farmers.
Pandemic Horde
#81 - 2015-05-01 14:28:41 UTC
TIL Black Legion is running out of iskies, or more specifically Feyd *is* out of isk.

Agent of Chaos, Sower of Discord.

Don't talk to me unless you are IQ verified and certified with three references from non-family members. Please have your certificate of authenticity on hand.

Feyd Rautha Harkonnen
Doomheim
#82 - 2015-05-01 17:34:48 UTC
Alpheias wrote:
TIL Black Legion is running out of iskies, or more specifically Feyd *is* out of isk.

Clearly indicated by our seppuku'ing dreads rather than endure jump fatigue AIDS to move them... ayyyyyyy.
Cataca
Aspiring Nomads
#83 - 2015-05-01 17:59:42 UTC
Copy pasted from your other thread (that got locked... why did you reopen it?)

Quote:
As-is the only thing that keeps the market afloat despite the hundreds of billions that get injected via isk faucets is that people tend to blow up their ships and effectively get rid of their stuff. If you'd get back your investment on your ship (near total) people would just pile up money and the value of isk would plummet to nothingness.

Think about this for a second.

You pay some industrialist for your ship (effectively, he sold you "refined materials" at a ~5-10% profit margin, but going back all the way through the chain is going too far)

You go buy your fit, you pew, you lose your ship and get 95% of its value back.

What is now happening is that the isk you spent on that ship, virtually doubled. You have the value of the ship and the industrialist has the value of the ship (you paid him, remember?). This is happening over and over and over again. For every ship lost you inject more money into the market that nobody worked for. Minerals are suddenly the only chokepoint to ensure ship replacement and the price rises to accomodate increased demand, which in turn increases insurance payout which in turn increases....


So yes, dumbest idea ever. Hyperinflation in a bottle.


Also, people generally only fight when they can win, dont roam in huge ass groups and complain when a single pilot docked up to not get ganked. Thats not risk aversion, thats just "i wont suicide to pad their killboard".
Akirei Scytale
Okami Syndicate
#84 - 2015-05-01 18:04:01 UTC
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:
Akirei Scytale wrote:
That's hardly stepping down a league to fight people who can't fight back. It's just a mark of someone who carefully considers when to engage, and doesn't leave openings for others to take advantage of. An aware, cautious player.


What would be a simple catch-all term for that sort of player. Hmm, maybe "risk averse"? Blink


Like mentioned before, there is a large difference between risk averse and cautious. Consider Gus Fring. A risk averse player is strongly unlikely to take any risks. A cautious player will take them after weighing them.
Ma'Baker McCandless
The McCandless Clan
#85 - 2015-05-01 18:07:18 UTC
I thought one of the key sellin points in EvE was having complete freedom to do what you want.

Now we want to punish people who choose the least risky option?

I mean, I know thats not what you are literally saying (anyone), but isnt that what this amounts to?
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#86 - 2015-05-01 18:08:44 UTC
Cataca wrote:
Copy pasted from your other thread (that got locked... why did you reopen it?)

Quote:
As-is the only thing that keeps the market afloat despite the hundreds of billions that get injected via isk faucets is that people tend to blow up their ships and effectively get rid of their stuff. If you'd get back your investment on your ship (near total) people would just pile up money and the value of isk would plummet to nothingness.

Think about this for a second.

You pay some industrialist for your ship (effectively, he sold you "refined materials" at a ~5-10% profit margin, but going back all the way through the chain is going too far)

You go buy your fit, you pew, you lose your ship and get 95% of its value back.

What is now happening is that the isk you spent on that ship, virtually doubled. You have the value of the ship and the industrialist has the value of the ship (you paid him, remember?). This is happening over and over and over again. For every ship lost you inject more money into the market that nobody worked for. Minerals are suddenly the only chokepoint to ensure ship replacement and the price rises to accomodate increased demand, which in turn increases insurance payout which in turn increases....


So yes, dumbest idea ever. Hyperinflation in a bottle.


Also, people generally only fight when they can win, dont roam in huge ass groups and complain when a single pilot docked up to not get ganked. Thats not risk aversion, thats just "i wont suicide to pad their killboard".


A few years ago we shut down all caldari ice mining in highsec with just 30 guys.
Akirei Scytale
Okami Syndicate
#87 - 2015-05-01 18:15:10 UTC
baltec1 wrote:

A few years ago we shut down all caldari ice mining in highsec with just 30 guys.


Definitely a lot more than 30, going by the size and activity of the jabber channel back when I was scouting ice belts for y'all. Maybe 30 or so were more active than the others, but you're exaggerating.
Feyd Rautha Harkonnen
Doomheim
#88 - 2015-05-01 18:39:47 UTC

Quote:
As-is the only thing that keeps the market afloat despite the hundreds of billions that get injected via isk faucets is that people tend to blow up their ships and effectively get rid of their stuff. If you'd get back your investment on your ship (near total) people would just pile up money and the value of isk would plummet to nothingness.

Think about this for a second.

You pay some industrialist for your ship (effectively, he sold you "refined materials" at a ~5-10% profit margin, but going back all the way through the chain is going too far)

You go buy your fit, you pew, you lose your ship and get 95% of its value back.

What is now happening is that the isk you spent on that ship, virtually doubled. You have the value of the ship and the industrialist has the value of the ship (you paid him, remember?). This is happening over and over and over again. For every ship lost you inject more money into the market that nobody worked for. Minerals are suddenly the only chokepoint to ensure ship replacement and the price rises to accomodate increased demand, which in turn increases insurance payout which in turn increases....

So yes, dumbest idea ever. Hyperinflation in a bottle.

Would the rate have to be set at 95%?

Do we have an insurance scheme already, and has the sky fallen?
Owen Levanth
Sagittarius Unlimited Exploration
#89 - 2015-05-01 18:48:51 UTC
A free insurance would probably inject too much money into the economy, so as much as I like the idea, it's still bad for EVE.

Now, giving better insurance on T2 ships to stimulate their usage, that would be something I could get behind.

95% insurance for everyone and everything however, that's far too much.
Aralyn Cormallen
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#90 - 2015-05-01 18:56:00 UTC
Akirei Scytale wrote:
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:
Akirei Scytale wrote:
That's hardly stepping down a league to fight people who can't fight back. It's just a mark of someone who carefully considers when to engage, and doesn't leave openings for others to take advantage of. An aware, cautious player.


What would be a simple catch-all term for that sort of player. Hmm, maybe "risk averse"? Blink


Like mentioned before, there is a large difference between risk averse and cautious.


The only difference between Risk Averse and Cautious is one is used to label the speaker making a "tactical withdrawal", and the other to label the speakers enemy "running away" Blink
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#91 - 2015-05-01 19:23:08 UTC
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:
Akirei Scytale wrote:
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:
Akirei Scytale wrote:
That's hardly stepping down a league to fight people who can't fight back. It's just a mark of someone who carefully considers when to engage, and doesn't leave openings for others to take advantage of. An aware, cautious player.


What would be a simple catch-all term for that sort of player. Hmm, maybe "risk averse"? Blink


Like mentioned before, there is a large difference between risk averse and cautious.


The only difference between Risk Averse and Cautious is one is used to label the speaker making a "tactical withdrawal", and the other to label the speakers enemy "running away" Blink
And the only people who would argue that there is a difference, are risk-averse - I mean, cautious - dudes secretely ashamed of their cowardly ways. Lol

C'mon, Akirei, let's all be honest about it! You can do it!

I'll start: hi GD, I'm Gully Alex Foyle and I'm risk averse. True, I get myself into a lot of fights, even with impossible odds, but I mostly fly frigates and destroyers so I'm pretty much a carebear after all.

Your turn, Akirei.

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Cataca
Aspiring Nomads
#92 - 2015-05-01 19:52:01 UTC
Feyd Rautha Harkonnen wrote:

Would the rate have to be set at 95%?

Do we have an insurance scheme already, and has the sky fallen?



Yes, there is inflation from insurance already and its a bad thing. Generally, you dont try to make bad things worse. Insurance is at 70% of the mineral value currently with platinum, anything under 95% wont even make a dent.

Also, monetary security does not make people less risk averse. People wont flood to null or low (where the main draw for a large percentage of higsec dwellers would be increased isk earning opportunities) when isk is less of a problem for them.

People will always play what is more fun for them, be it counting isk, pvping or bearing it up. If you want more targets that want to get ganked by forces 20 times bigger than they are, well, good luck with that. If you want to fight other corps on equal level, i think there are mechanics for this.
El Taron
Doomheim
#93 - 2015-05-01 21:01:49 UTC
I agree it is a big problem in the game. I was going to write a thread on the dreadful state of solo, duo and small gang pvp but realised I couldn't be bothered. If you're not interested in faction warfare it is terrible. Most of the player base doesn't care, which means CCP don't care so it seemed pointless.

There is too few players willing to engage in fights where they have a reasonable chance of losing. You can quite literally roam for hours without finding someone willing to engage you even with if you give them a decent advantage. Instead players are grouped up tightly, and usually only fight if they have friends and have 1 or more of links, logi, ewar or a cyno.

Far too often players want to drop a hammer on someone or just not fight. Which makes a pretty boring game in my opinion.

It's an escalating problem too, the worse it gets the less people will do it and the worse it it gets again.

The point is, it's become far too much effort to find a decent fight in non faction warfare like ships. I've found myself wanting to play other games instead because you don't have to go through such an incredible effort just to make some content for yourself.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#94 - 2015-05-01 21:16:58 UTC
Akirei Scytale wrote:
baltec1 wrote:

A few years ago we shut down all caldari ice mining in highsec with just 30 guys.


Definitely a lot more than 30, going by the size and activity of the jabber channel back when I was scouting ice belts for y'all. Maybe 30 or so were more active than the others, but you're exaggerating.


We did a corp only event for the first caldari interdiction. Yea, it was just 30 of us vs highsec and we wonStraight
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#95 - 2015-05-01 22:07:56 UTC
Syrilian wrote:
The problem with the "risk aversion" argument is that everyone has a different opinion of what that means. Some people think a person is risk averse when they dont have a death wish.



Errr...no. Risk aversion does have a pretty clear definition. However, not everyone is risk averse. Some are loss averse. And risk aversion actually has three broad categories: risk averse, risk neutral, risk loving. Loss aversion is where a player wants to avoid losses at almost all costs and will go primarily for gains. Keep in mind that is a simplified definition. A loss averse player might pass up a gamble with a positive expected payout, but where there is also a small chance of a loss and will instead go for the considerably lower activity that carries no loss. It could be reasonable to conclude that a fair percentage of HS players are loss averse. Most NS players probably range between risk averse to risk loving.

As for dealing with risk/loss aversion, there isn't much you can do, IMO. A player who is loss averse is probably never going to see the fun in jumping through a gate not knowing what is on the other side and having fun in whatever follows. A player who is risk loving is going to see such activity as his primary reason for logging in. Its a psychological thing that probably will not change all that often.

And being risk averse is not bad even in this game. A player can be risk averse and still move to null, take part in PvP and so forth. However, such a player may not be the kind of player to jump solo through a gate looking for fun. He maybe more likely to use a scout, use a travel fit ceptor whenever feasible, etc. He is not averse to undocking, he just wont do it when he sees the payoff for doing so as not worth it.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#96 - 2015-05-01 22:24:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Delt0r Garsk wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:

Because if every EVE PVP-er were only willing to lose 2-3 ships in a whole month like yourself, New Eden would be a boring place indeed.

I don't want to detract from your point. But this is not the case. Because kills are counted more than once. So if you mostly fly in fleets where every kill ends up on 20+ peoples killboards, then well that is "40-60" killboard "stats" per month per 2-3 actual ships lost.

To get a real accurate view of "kills" each kill should be counted only once. Either final blow or top damage.


This "counter-point" only applies when looking at kills/losses in aggregate not a single player's KB. Just because each player got 40 kills in a fleet of 100 of course does not mean 4,000 ships exploded. However, that kind of multiplication effect will not be present on a single player's KB unless there is an error and some kills are counted multiple times.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#97 - 2015-05-01 22:55:03 UTC
Akirei Scytale wrote:
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:
Akirei Scytale wrote:
That's hardly stepping down a league to fight people who can't fight back. It's just a mark of someone who carefully considers when to engage, and doesn't leave openings for others to take advantage of. An aware, cautious player.


What would be a simple catch-all term for that sort of player. Hmm, maybe "risk averse"? Blink


Like mentioned before, there is a large difference between risk averse and cautious. Consider Gus Fring. A risk averse player is strongly unlikely to take any risks. A cautious player will take them after weighing them.


No. A risk averse player is one who will take a lesser payoff than a gamble with a higher expected payoff...up to a point.

For example, if a person is faced with the following choice:

A: You get $40, for certain.
B: You take a gamble, and you get $100 or $0 with probabilities 0.5/0.5.

If you choose A you are risk averse. You prefer the $40 over the gamble. Now, if we change the certain payout to say $30 some players might switch to B. Risk aversion does not mean you always avoid risk. It means you have a certainty equivalent of $40 and when the sure thing dips below that you'll take the risk.

Now, if you never take the gamble, and always go for the sure thing you are loss averse....very different than risk averse. Risk averse means you will look at the odds and make a decision and sometimes take the risks. Loss averse means you'll try to avoid all situations that carry with it the chance of a loss...even if there is a substantial expected gain to be had.

In the context of the game its a bit harder as PvP doesn't usually come with much of a monetary reward. The payoff is did you have fun, and for most people winning is more fun that losing. And in some circumstances winning is a very small probability. And even when the odds are roughly 50-50 it is not uncommon for many players to do things to tip the odds in their favor of winning and also not losing.

For example, if you decide to camp a gate by yourself we could say (a priori) you have a 50-50 chance of beating whatever comes through the gate. It could be a lone dude in a ship you can defeat...or it could be 5 guys that will wipe the system with you. But, you decide to put a scout on the other side of the gate 185 KM off said gate and cloaked....congratulations you just became risk averse, IMO. You just reduced your odds of losing and moved away from the 50-50 odds which is where the risk neutral player would be perfectly happy to sit.

My guess, the vast amount of players are risk averse. Even that "solo PvP" expert...who has a booster off grid...or neutral logi alts...or even just a scout. All those things mark you are risk averse.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Kaely Tanniss
Black Lotus Society.
#98 - 2015-05-01 23:12:17 UTC
Honestly Feyd, some are just scared or just plain afraid of backlash from their corp or alliance. I don't speak for everyone, but in some cases it's a matter of weighing a situation. For example, I will not undock against a superior force that I know I have no chance at all of beating. There's a difference between being risk averse and just plain suicidal. If you know you won't stand any shot of at least possibly winning or escaping..it's rather stupid to throw yourself on the chopping block just to pad some elses kb. However, what I don't understand is how a superior force..or at least one that has a chance to win if done in a skillfull way, will not fight.

Now don't get me wrong...there are those who won't fight for whatever reason, and those who will jump on the line 100 vs 1...there are those who are genuinely risk averse and afraid...and there are those, like myself, who know when to fight and when not to fight. I love PvP, but I am not one for pointless suicide when I know I can't win. Now this doesn't mean i will only fight if I can win...what it means is I'm not stupid and will not engage without the possibility of inflicting maximum damage before I die. It's a thin line really...some will see it as smart...others as risk averse..but I see no point jumping into the lion's den with steaks strapped to your back unless you have a whip to at least try to survive...if you get my point.

There are those who say "what if I don't want to PvP". That's too bad. This is Eve. If that's the way you feel about it, you're playing the wrong game. You WILL at some point HAVE to PvP to survive or protect your interests. If you chose not to, you will lose. This is just how it is. Accept it and things will be a lot more enjoyable.

If I had a nickel for every time someone said women don't play eve, I'd have a bag of nickels to whack the next person who said it..

Nicolai Serkanner
Incredible.
Brave Collective
#99 - 2015-05-01 23:16:06 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
Nicolai Serkanner wrote:
Risk aversion isn't a bad thing. Risk aversion is the normal thing to do. We do it all the time in game and out of game.
Nope.

Risk aversion is innate to human beings because nature, survival and all that jazz. But generally speaking it doesn't really make sense: why should you over-estimate risks compared to opportunities (pretty much the definition of risk-aversion)? Why not do the opposite? Or do your best to get a balanced viewpoint? Or make - say - one risky decision for every cautious decision?

When your own (real) life isn't at risk, it's just an unnecessary hindrance. Especially in a game, FFS!


Nope ... nonsense. And I really can not be bothered to debate it because it will basically be just a waste of time.
Jenshae Chiroptera
#100 - 2015-05-02 00:19:57 UTC
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:
Akirei Scytale wrote:
That's hardly stepping down a league to fight people who can't fight back. It's just a mark of someone who carefully considers when to engage, and doesn't leave openings for others to take advantage of. An aware, cautious player.
What would be a simple catch-all term for that sort of player. Hmm, maybe "risk averse"? Blink
I haven't read back or found the context but that level of risk adversity sounds like a suicide ganker or a hot dropper. Blink

CCP - Building ant hills and magnifying glasses for fat kids

Not even once

EVE is becoming shallow and puerile; it will satisfy neither the veteran nor the "WoW" type crowd in the transition.