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[April] Ore, Mineral and Nullsec Mining Anomaly Revamp

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Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#681 - 2015-04-24 17:36:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
GankYou wrote:


Like I said, this is only the beginning - new supply coming online and demand shifting elsewhere is an irresistible Force and can not be reasoned with. Smile

As for Mega/Zyd - I see them going back to the good old days, well, perhaps not 5600/4000 ISK p/u respectively, but closer to 4500/3100, maybe spiking even more, courtesy of the Sov system shake up and ensuing wars. Blink


Agreed.

This might even help with keeping inflation under control. If mining becomes a Thing™ in null for generating income and it pulls people out of the anomalies...then less ISK entering the economy lower inflation. At the very least this change will limit a surge in inflation due to more people ratting in null.

Note to self: train my alts for mining as well as ratting. P

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#682 - 2015-04-24 17:39:45 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
GankYou wrote:
[

Like I said, this is only the beginning - new supply coming online and demand shifting elsewhere is an irresistible Force and can not be reasoned with. Smile

As for Mega/Zyd - I see them going back to the good old days, well, perhaps not 5600/4000 ISK p/u respectively, but closer to 4500/3100, maybe spiking even more, courtesy of the Sov system shake up and ensuing wars. Blink


Agreed.

This might even help with keeping inflation under control. If mining becomes a Thing™ in null for generating income and it pulls people out of the anomalies...then less ISK entering the economy lower inflation. At the very least this change will limit a surge in inflation due to more people ratting in null.

Note to self: train my alts for mining as well as ratting. P


I picked up a few nuggets again over the week - https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=5690383#post5690383

Heheh.

...And they all crave one thing - ISK. ¤

[WTS] ME10 / TE20 BPOs from Battleships/Cruisers to Fighters, Carriers, Triage/Siege, XL modules & Cap Components
Mario Putzo
#683 - 2015-04-24 17:47:36 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Mario Putzo wrote:
GankYou wrote:
Mario Putzo wrote:

The only folks who have a legit gripe are T1 producers in HS, and even then, its only the entry level to mid skilled producers that will get hit, anyone who can produce T2 in HS will just be able to roll the costs over.


Why would producers be discontent? They should be delighted. Smile

Lower input costs, means lower prices for the customer, which in turns means more inventory gets moved - you can even retain the same profit margins.


For entry level production and mid skilled production this won't be the case though.


Give a few examples with Blueprint Bill of Materials and we will see whether that is the case. Blink

Yes, overnight costs on products involving Zydr & Megacyte on April 28th will go up, but over time the net will either stay the same or even decrease due to lowends returning to their historical mean prices.


I think you overestimate the change in lowend pricing to be quite honest, and underestimate the scope of production moving to NS. Add on the possibility of JFs range being reduced then you are going to have less coming into the market.

On top of which T1 production is already a minimized market, its general use price is capped by Meta Mods, and T2 producers will likely begin producing even more of their own T1 stuff because it will be effectively cheaper to do so and cut out the middleman post changes.

In regards to bill of materials. If I remember after work ill toss up some examples I don't have any of my tables in front of me here.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#684 - 2015-04-24 17:49:53 UTC
I'm overestimating, you're underestimating - something has to give, something has to give. P

See you this Summer!

...And they all crave one thing - ISK. ¤

[WTS] ME10 / TE20 BPOs from Battleships/Cruisers to Fighters, Carriers, Triage/Siege, XL modules & Cap Components
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#685 - 2015-04-24 17:50:04 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
GankYou wrote:
[

Like I said, this is only the beginning - new supply coming online and demand shifting elsewhere is an irresistible Force and can not be reasoned with. Smile

As for Mega/Zyd - I see them going back to the good old days, well, perhaps not 5600/4000 ISK p/u respectively, but closer to 4500/3100, maybe spiking even more, courtesy of the Sov system shake up and ensuing wars. Blink


Agreed.

This might even help with keeping inflation under control. If mining becomes a Thing™ in null for generating income and it pulls people out of the anomalies...then less ISK entering the economy lower inflation. At the very least this change will limit a surge in inflation due to more people ratting in null.

Note to self: train my alts for mining as well as ratting. P


I picked up a few nuggets again over the week - https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=5690383#post5690383

Heheh.


Heh, good move.

Actually, with changes to structures, mining anoms, I'm quite excited. Fozziesov has me a bit worried as the other two can and likely will be iterated on and tweaked. Fozziesov doesn't seem as easily tweaked (hopefully I'm wrong). But depending on how it works, semi-afk mining in null could be possible. By semi-afk I mean form a fleet with more than one person and take shifts watching local/intel/etc. The rest can talk on comms and/or do other stuff.

I'm hoping that the Observation Array has a network aspect of it so that we can dispense with putting cloaked alts in neighboring systems.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#686 - 2015-04-24 17:52:10 UTC
GankYou wrote:
I'm overestimating, you're underestimating - something has to give, something has to give. P

See you this Summer!


The answer is somewhere in the middle. Interesting "fact" averaging two or more forecasts often results in a better forecast...so Zydrine around 2,500/unit and megacyte at 3750/unit. Still a good investment...even now. Big smile

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#687 - 2015-04-24 17:59:26 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
My Lowend forecasts weren't in the extreme, otherwise I present 3.5 Trit, 7.7 Pyerite, 32 Mex and 80 Isogen for you.

Averaging these opposing views brings you back to my reasonable prices found on the previous page, which have a scientific basis built into them. Blink

...And they all crave one thing - ISK. ¤

[WTS] ME10 / TE20 BPOs from Battleships/Cruisers to Fighters, Carriers, Triage/Siege, XL modules & Cap Components
Mario Putzo
#688 - 2015-04-24 18:07:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Mario Putzo
GankYou wrote:
My Lowend forecasts weren't in the extreme, otherwise I present 3.5 Trit, 7.7 Pyerite, 32 Mex and 80 Isogen for you.

Averaging these opposing views brings you back to my reasonable prices found on the previous page, which have a scientific basis built into them. Blink


Seems reasonable and somewhat close to the numbers i had the other day (4T 10P, 40M, 90I) So i guess we in discussions over what 5% call it a wash?

e:
My highs were a bit different too, A little closer to 5/3.5 (M/Z) but I also took some liberties and assumed Fozzies plan works and more ore stays in NS than comes to HS.
Ncc 1709
Fusion Enterprises Ltd
Pandemic Horde
#689 - 2015-04-24 18:08:22 UTC
last time ccp changed the ores I had an excess of 50m zydrine. wonder it its that high this time.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#690 - 2015-04-24 18:09:23 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Mario Putzo wrote:
GankYou wrote:
My Lowend forecasts weren't in the extreme, otherwise I present 3.5 Trit, 7.7 Pyerite, 32 Mex and 80 Isogen for you.

Averaging these opposing views brings you back to my reasonable prices found on the previous page, which have a scientific basis built into them. Blink


Seems reasonable and somewhat close to the numbers i had the other day (4T 10P, 40M, 90I) So i guess we in discussions over what 5% call it a wash?


That's even more extreme than my original forecast,

GankYou wrote:
As I've mentioned, it will rebalance with the prices of Lowends going lower and spreading their share to Highends in a few months time. Blink

Tritanium alone going from 5.5 to 4.5 would shave 14 mil off the cost. Mexallon at 42-43 ISK p/u is also nice.

Oooh, and Pyerite at 9.35, and Isogen at 105 p/u... And...

Pirate


I don't see them going any lower than this +-5%. P Not with the capital ships firmly established in the game.

Damn capital ships. X

...And they all crave one thing - ISK. ¤

[WTS] ME10 / TE20 BPOs from Battleships/Cruisers to Fighters, Carriers, Triage/Siege, XL modules & Cap Components
Mario Putzo
#691 - 2015-04-24 18:13:51 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Mario Putzo wrote:
GankYou wrote:
My Lowend forecasts weren't in the extreme, otherwise I present 3.5 Trit, 7.7 Pyerite, 32 Mex and 80 Isogen for you.

Averaging these opposing views brings you back to my reasonable prices found on the previous page, which have a scientific basis built into them. Blink


Seems reasonable and somewhat close to the numbers i had the other day (4T 10P, 40M, 90I) So i guess we in discussions over what 5% call it a wash?


That's even more extreme than my original forecast,

GankYou wrote:
As I've mentioned, it will rebalance with the prices of Lowends going lower and spreading their share to Highends in a few months time. Blink

Tritanium alone going from 5.5 to 4.5 would shave 14 mil off the cost. Mexallon at 42-43 ISK p/u is also nice.

Oooh, and Pyerite at 9.35, and Isogen at 105 p/u... And...

Pirate


I don't see them going any lower than this +-5%. P Not with the capital ships firmly established in the game.

Damn capital ships. X


True enough, the only outlier really is how much ore stays in NS compared to today...and if JFs change at all, then the price in HS for M/Z will increase more than just flat out availabilty metrics....I suppose time will tell.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#692 - 2015-04-24 18:36:37 UTC
Mario Putzo wrote:


True enough, the only outlier really is how much ore stays in NS compared to today...and if JFs change at all, then the price in HS for M/Z will increase more than just flat out availabilty metrics....I suppose time will tell.


With a nerf to JFs we might see more regional differences in pricing as well.

To use out of game examples...

Oil is largely a global market. Gasoline, is much more regional (due to various blend requirements). The latter typically results in more volatility in prices/quantity.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Shakuul
Infinitus Sapientia
#693 - 2015-04-24 23:48:36 UTC
Will any of the manufacturing changes go to the test server before being released live?
Mario Putzo
#694 - 2015-04-25 03:52:10 UTC
Shakuul wrote:
Will any of the manufacturing changes go to the test server before being released live?


There isn't really anything they can test to be honest as there isn't much in the way of mechanic changes. I mean maybe they could test how the NS Anoms look, but in terms of pure manufacturing they are just changing input quantities needed so no testing needs to be done there.

Its really to broad of scope for any accurate feedback anyway since it is mostly reliant on the market adjusting, as such Sisi will only provide false data in comparison to the market on TQ, and there is much much more volatility on TQ compared to Sisi that will impact these changes in the weeks/months to come.

Stuff like

> Players sitting on stockpiles or minerals/ores
> Players moving/not moving to NS
> Sov NS volatility (especially with Fozzie Sov upcoming)
> POS volatility (especially with potential revamps to POS modules)

These are things that will all impact these changes moving forward, and stuff Sisi can not give any accurate feedback on. The only thing CCP can do is put these changes in, wait a few months, and take a look at what the impact is, and tune them as needed. Id wager that we won't have an accurate vision of the hard numbers until after summer going into winter, largely because of the sov changes, the fact EVE is notorious for summer inactivity, and of course the annual "Winter is Coming" war chest build up, courtesy the RUS RUS.

And of course, since everything is market related, so folks with deep pockets can manipulate the changes for some time before everything settles in.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#695 - 2015-04-25 06:52:12 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Mario Putzo wrote:

Its really to broad of scope for any accurate feedback anyway since it is mostly reliant on the market adjusting, as such Sisi will only provide false data in comparison to the market on TQ, and there is much much more volatility on TQ compared to Sisi that will impact these changes in the weeks/months to come.


By volatility on TQ, you mean liquidity, for higher liquidity equals lower volatility. Blink

A very liquid marked moving on fundamental changes does truly represent the full scope of said changes, and can not be simulated in a lab environment like Singularity - that is true.

Mario Putzo wrote:

These are things that will all impact these changes moving forward, and stuff Sisi can not give any accurate feedback on. The only thing CCP can do is put these changes in, wait a few months, and take a look at what the impact is, and tune them as needed. Id wager that we won't have an accurate vision of the hard numbers until after summer going into winter, largely because of the sov changes, the fact EVE is notorious for summer inactivity, and of course the annual "Winter is Coming" war chest build up, courtesy the RUS RUS.


http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

That is indeed curiously consistent throughout the years. *cough* Summer landgrabs coming. If we do break this trend with unprecedented gameplay Expansions, then we can very well expand in PCU numbers during the Summer, like it happened in 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2013. Smile

...And they all crave one thing - ISK. ¤

[WTS] ME10 / TE20 BPOs from Battleships/Cruisers to Fighters, Carriers, Triage/Siege, XL modules & Cap Components
Mario Putzo
#696 - 2015-04-25 07:38:12 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Mario Putzo wrote:

Its really to broad of scope for any accurate feedback anyway since it is mostly reliant on the market adjusting, as such Sisi will only provide false data in comparison to the market on TQ, and there is much much more volatility on TQ compared to Sisi that will impact these changes in the weeks/months to come.


By volatility on TQ, you mean liquidity, for higher liquidity equals lower volatility. Blink

A very liquid marked moving on fundamental changes does truly represent the full scope of said changes, and can not be simulated in a lab environment like Singularity - that is true.


I was mostly referring to volatile decisions by players, since they drive the market. But same out come regardless.
Mr Omniblivion
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#697 - 2015-04-25 08:01:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Mr Omniblivion
Mario Putzo wrote:
I was mostly referring to volatile decisions by players, since they drive the market. But same out come regardless.


Anyone making a "volatile decision" in a marketplace generally doesn't have enough ISK to have a serious impact on that market.

Manipulation, on the other hand... Bear

edit: yes you mentioned manipulation above :) just pointing out most large swings in markets are not from an accidental "volatile decision"
Daerrol
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#698 - 2015-04-25 15:08:16 UTC
elitatwo wrote:
So in six months it will be supers and tech3 online. Almost interesting changes for null space.

I foresee ships and gear prices skyrocket, nullsec says 'screw empire space, ahahahahaha' and stops exporting all together. Nobody can buy gear and ships anymore and everyone is forced to fly newly gimped tech3, nullsec flies supers and titans all day long.

nullsec get good(ererer) and empire is a tritanium haven for bittervets -> EVE offline.

Don't worry smart manufacturers and exporters are already adjusting.
Mario Putzo
#699 - 2015-04-25 16:01:28 UTC
Mr Omniblivion wrote:
Mario Putzo wrote:
I was mostly referring to volatile decisions by players, since they drive the market. But same out come regardless.


Anyone making a "volatile decision" in a marketplace generally doesn't have enough ISK to have a serious impact on that market.

Manipulation, on the other hand... Bear

edit: yes you mentioned manipulation above :) just pointing out most large swings in markets are not from an accidental "volatile decision"



Eh i guess I should have been more specific. I am not specifically talking about people making unpredictable market transactions, more so the impact from unpredictable decisions in conflict drivers (Sov, POS takeovers etc). For example. NC./Darkness attacking CFC in Fountain a month ago, was a volatile decision...now Delve/Querious/PB are on fire, POSes burning down and thousands of renters are either hunkered down in NPC space, or fleeing to LS/HS. Same vein different scope would be CFC pulling back from Fountain, Cloud Ring. Thats a big material vacuum, especially in the cases of Fountain and Delve.

And all this largely because Fozzie only had to make a dev post about potential changes to how we build our sandcastles in the future.
Zemfadel
Hand Trade Society
#700 - 2015-04-26 06:04:02 UTC
This still doesn't fix the reason no one mines...

theoretical max isk/hour mining would be MAYBE 60M with these changes, so actual would be something closer to 30M and you would need minimum of 6 people mining at once (4 miners, hauler, booster).

You can pretty easily make 60M/hour ratting (iirc, it's been a while since i ratted) solo with generally the same risk and slightly less boringness.

If you want people to mine in null you can't have an alternative that has similar risk, is more entertaining, and nets you double the profit... You have to either increase the profit or decrease the risk relative to ratting