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Has suicide ganking become a problem? Empty freighters being ganked.

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Author
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#1901 - 2014-07-14 17:06:20 UTC
Organic Lager wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:

10 ships got killed while hauling through Uedama during the 24 hour period I used, I have no doubt that several hundred other ships, also hauling and which didn't get killed, passed through Uedama during that same period.

Therefore, given the data available, my point stands. The chances of getting ganked in a chokepoint system are very very small. There is no glut of suicide ganking, there is however, a glut of moaning minnies whining about it.


Lmao! No the fact that there is no better info available does not mean your admittedly flawed stats "stand" by default. Your stats actually show nothing to prove the "very very small" chance of having a freighter ganked in Uedama, unless of course you can provide a % of freighter jumps?

Take for example if the number of freighter jumps for the same period are 3, that would mean with 3 freighters ganked there is a 100% chance of being ganked in Uedama. See how easily we can bend stats to fit our needs?


3 freighters passing through a chokepoint in a 24 hour period would indicate that something is very very wrong with the economy, which there is not, ergo my traffic scenario is a lot more likely than yours P

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Organic Lager
Drinking Buddies
#1902 - 2014-07-14 17:30:20 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:

10 ships got killed while hauling through Uedama during the 24 hour period I used, I have no doubt that several hundred other ships, also hauling and which didn't get killed, passed through Uedama during that same period.

Therefore, given the data available, my point stands. The chances of getting ganked in a chokepoint system are very very small. There is no glut of suicide ganking, there is however, a glut of moaning minnies whining about it.


Lmao! No the fact that there is no better info available does not mean your admittedly flawed stats "stand" by default. Your stats actually show nothing to prove the "very very small" chance of having a freighter ganked in Uedama, unless of course you can provide a % of freighter jumps?

Take for example if the number of freighter jumps for the same period are 3, that would mean with 3 freighters ganked there is a 100% chance of being ganked in Uedama. See how easily we can bend stats to fit our needs?


3 freighters passing through a chokepoint in a 24 hour period would indicate that something is very very wrong with the economy, which there is not, ergo my traffic scenario is a lot more likely than yours P


Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers is just as likely as the number of hauler jumps being 3, both are complete and utter trash. Unless you know the true number or have a way of accurately estimating the number of those total jumps that were tied to freighters we can't say if it's an appropriate number or not.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#1903 - 2014-07-14 17:45:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Organic Lager wrote:

Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers is just as likely as the number of hauler jumps being 3, both are complete and utter trash. Unless you know the true number or have a way of accurately estimating the number of those total jumps that were tied to freighters we can't say if it's an appropriate number or not.
Nowhere did I assume or state that those 35k jumps were all hauler jumps. If I had assumed that all of the jumps were haulers then the following would be superfluous
I wrote:
hauler kills as a percentage of total kills 9.8% : (10/102)*100


The fact is that I took great pains to point out that I had only covered the losses to freighter and hauler traffic which implies, pretty strongly, that there were other sorts of traffic Roll

Reading comprehension, you should train it to at least level 1.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

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Organic Lager
Drinking Buddies
#1904 - 2014-07-14 17:46:21 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:

10 ships got killed while hauling through Uedama during the 24 hour period I used, I have no doubt that several hundred other ships, also hauling and which didn't get killed, passed through Uedama during that same period.

Therefore, given the data available, my point stands. The chances of getting ganked in a chokepoint system are very very small. There is no glut of suicide ganking, there is however, a glut of moaning minnies whining about it.


Lmao! No the fact that there is no better info available does not mean your admittedly flawed stats "stand" by default. Your stats actually show nothing to prove the "very very small" chance of having a freighter ganked in Uedama, unless of course you can provide a % of freighter jumps?

Take for example if the number of freighter jumps for the same period are 3, that would mean with 3 freighters ganked there is a 100% chance of being ganked in Uedama. See how easily we can bend stats to fit our needs?
So you think a grand total of 3 freighters travel from Dodi to Jita in 24h... Wow you sure have a feel for numbers. Shocked

My hauling alt often goes through Uedama. She always sees at least 1 freighter in system, no matter the time of day. Assuming 2 minutes gate-to-gate travel time (it's actually less), that means at least 30 freighters per hour, or over 600 per day.

So Jonah's 'several hundred' is either spot on or underestimated.

3 freighters per day... lmao!


He based his numbers on 35k the total number of jumps then tied that to the number of hauler loses.

If you're correct and it's a 1/200 chance to lose a freighter, then freighter ganking is too high in Uedama as it takes over 2000 jumps to replace the freighter hull alone, forget any cargo it was carrying. 625k Isk per jump is based on the market value of 1bil collateral, freighter cargo size, jita-dodixie from push industries.

See how pointless it is to debate the unknown?
admiral root
Red Galaxy
#1905 - 2014-07-14 17:46:39 UTC
Organic Lager wrote:
Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers


Please point to the bit where he said that.

No, your rights end in optimal+2*falloff

Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#1906 - 2014-07-14 17:54:01 UTC
admiral root wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers


Please point to the bit where he said that.
He can't, because I didn't.

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Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#1907 - 2014-07-14 18:16:38 UTC
Organic Lager wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:

10 ships got killed while hauling through Uedama during the 24 hour period I used, I have no doubt that several hundred other ships, also hauling and which didn't get killed, passed through Uedama during that same period.

Therefore, given the data available, my point stands. The chances of getting ganked in a chokepoint system are very very small. There is no glut of suicide ganking, there is however, a glut of moaning minnies whining about it.


Lmao! No the fact that there is no better info available does not mean your admittedly flawed stats "stand" by default. Your stats actually show nothing to prove the "very very small" chance of having a freighter ganked in Uedama, unless of course you can provide a % of freighter jumps?

Take for example if the number of freighter jumps for the same period are 3, that would mean with 3 freighters ganked there is a 100% chance of being ganked in Uedama. See how easily we can bend stats to fit our needs?
So you think a grand total of 3 freighters travel from Dodi to Jita in 24h... Wow you sure have a feel for numbers. Shocked

My hauling alt often goes through Uedama. She always sees at least 1 freighter in system, no matter the time of day. Assuming 2 minutes gate-to-gate travel time (it's actually less), that means at least 30 freighters per hour, or over 600 per day.

So Jonah's 'several hundred' is either spot on or underestimated.

3 freighters per day... lmao!


He based his numbers on 35k the total number of jumps then tied that to the number of hauler loses.

If you're correct and it's a 1/200 chance to lose a freighter, then freighter ganking is too high in Uedama as it takes over 2000 jumps to replace the freighter hull alone, forget any cargo it was carrying. 625k Isk per jump is based on the market value of 1bil collateral, freighter cargo size, jita-dodixie from push industries.

See how pointless it is to debate the unknown?
Forum trolling aside, it's never pointless to try to make acceptable guesstimates on interesting topics.

I have to say your numbers are once again wrong. Lol

Red Frog charges roughly 12 Million for a Jita-Dodi haul. So it takes 100 trips to break even on a freighter.

Assuming Uedama is (almost) the only really dangerous system on the route, you could on average double your freighter investment before you pop. But you're right, you'd just break even, including a 1Bil collateral.

So, this proves that if you're just an average freighter pilot, you'll barely break even.

If you pilot well, you make money, if you pilot badly, you lose money.

This is so working as intended it's unreal. Lol

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Gavin Dax
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#1908 - 2014-07-14 18:21:13 UTC
admiral root wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers


Please point to the bit where he said that.


Obviously his point was that the 35k were not haulers, but the argument that everyone so readily accepted and applauded drew a conclusion that would have only been correct if they were. The fact that no one on the extreme pro gank side corrected this, and that this argument has been made continuously, just shows the extent to which this thread has become a circle jerk.
Organic Lager
Drinking Buddies
#1909 - 2014-07-14 18:22:13 UTC
admiral root wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers


Please point to the bit where he said that.


His very last calculation, can't crop on my phone sorry.

Something along the lines of

"Total number of suicide ganks vs total jumps 7/35k = .002%" seeing as how he only used the suicide ganked haulers (7) in his calculation and that it is the topic for discussion i assumed that he was only referring to that. The total number of suicide ganks would be far greater then 7, all those pods don't die without paying the concord.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#1910 - 2014-07-14 18:30:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Organic Lager wrote:
admiral root wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers


Please point to the bit where he said that.


His very last calculation, can't crop on my phone sorry.

Something along the lines of

"Total number of suicide ganks vs total jumps 7/35k = .002%" seeing as how he only used the suicide ganked haulers (7) in his calculation and that it is the topic for discussion i assumed that he was only referring to that. The total number of suicide ganks would be far greater then 7, all those pods don't die without paying the concord.
Nope, you appear to have missed the follow up post, where I categorically state that I had excluded any suicide gank not hauler or freighter related.

I wrote:
lol bear in mind I only used the numbers for freighters and other haulers inc Orcas, so those figures exclude any other type of suicide gank, ie any pods or wandering miners.
Please attempt to actually read, and understand, things before you try to pick holes in them.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

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Organic Lager
Drinking Buddies
#1911 - 2014-07-14 18:55:25 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
admiral root wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers


Please point to the bit where he said that.


His very last calculation, can't crop on my phone sorry.

Something along the lines of

"Total number of suicide ganks vs total jumps 7/35k = .002%" seeing as how he only used the suicide ganked haulers (7) in his calculation and that it is the topic for discussion i assumed that he was only referring to that. The total number of suicide ganks would be far greater then 7, all those pods don't die without paying the concord.

Nope, you appear to have missed the follow up post, where I categorically state that I had excluded any suicide gank not hauler or freighter related.
I wrote:
lol bear in mind I only used the numbers for freighters and other haulers inc Orcas, so those figures exclude any other type of suicide gank, ie any pods or wandering miners.


Please attempt to actually read, and understand, things before you try to pick holes in them.


But you decided to leave total jumps for all ships, had you reduced that down to just haulers (excluding pods, random miners or anyone else just generally passing through) then your numbers would be credible.

I do thank you for clearing this up and proving my point that your numbers are utter trash.

Also did you take the hourly number of kills and the 24 hour number of jumps? Currently for the last 24 hours it's at 1500 kills + another 80 pods and 30k jumps. Unless i'm miss understanding something which is possible, going to double check on this now.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#1912 - 2014-07-14 18:58:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Organic Lager wrote:
But you decided to leave total jumps for all ships, had you reduced that down to just haulers (excluding pods, random miners or anyone else just generally passing through) then your numbers would be credible.
There is no way of doing that, if you know of one then please enlighten us.

Quote:
I do thank you for clearing this up and proving my point that your numbers are utter trash.
Yet still more credible than anything you've posted, especially the one where only 3 freighters jumped through Uedama in a 24 hour period.

Quote:
Also did you take the hourly number of kills and the 24 hour number of jumps? Currently for the last 24 hours it's at 1500 kills + another 80 pods and 30k jumps. Unless i'm miss understanding something which is possible, going to double check on this now.
That was the 24 hour number of kills, the kills in the last hour stood at 2 when I took the figures.

Now look into the 1580 kills inc the 80 pod kills. Now tell us how many are freighters, Orcas and other industrial ships, here's a hint it's not a huge amount.

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Organic Lager
Drinking Buddies
#1913 - 2014-07-14 19:14:43 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
But you decided to leave total jumps for all ships, had you reduced that down to just haulers (excluding pods, random miners or anyone else just generally passing through) then your numbers would be credible.
There is no way of doing that, of you know of one then please enlighten us.

Quote:
I do thank you for clearing this up and proving my point that your numbers are utter trash.
Yet still more credible than anything you've posted, especially the one where only 3 freighters jumped through Uedama in a 24 hour period.

Also did you take the hourly number of kills and the 24 hour number of jumps? Currently for the last 24 hours it's at 1500 kills + another 80 pods and 30k jumps. Unless i'm miss understanding something which is possible, going to double check on this now.
That was the 24 hour number of kills, the kills in the last hour stood at 2 when I took the figures. Now look into the 1500 kills + the 80 pods, then tell us how many where freighters or industrial ships, here's a hint it's not a huge amount.[/quote]

Well then I guess we can both agree don't travel to Uedama on a monday, eh?
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#1914 - 2014-07-14 19:30:05 UTC
Organic Lager wrote:


Well then I guess we can both agree don't travel to Uedama on a monday, eh?


Only if you have several billion in the hold.

My freighter is several years old and never once has been shot at despite being used several times a day near every day.

Fact is that the average number of freighter ganks stands at around 6-10 out of tens of thousands of trips a day.
Organic Lager
Drinking Buddies
#1915 - 2014-07-14 20:05:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Organic Lager
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:
But you decided to leave total jumps for all ships, had you reduced that down to just haulers (excluding pods, random miners or anyone else just generally passing through) then your numbers would be credible.
There is no way of doing that, if you know of one then please enlighten us.

Quote:
I do thank you for clearing this up and proving my point that your numbers are utter trash.
Yet still more credible than anything you've posted, especially the one where only 3 freighters jumped through Uedama in a 24 hour period.


You just made me facepalm so hard i nearly broke my nose.

There is no way to tell, that was exactly what I said in my first post. Your numbers are worthless because you don't know how many jumps were related to freighters, meaning you don't really know if the % killed is high or low.

I used 3 as an example of the other extreme, both are quite clearly and obviously wrong, the only difference is I actually knew mine was incorrect and only present it as an example. You seem to still believe that yours has some relevance, of what I'm not sure.

If you want to battle stupid points, 3 is actually going to be closer to the true number of freighter jumps then 35k, unless you honestly believe over 50% of the traffic through Uedama is freighters.
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#1916 - 2014-07-14 20:16:47 UTC
@Organic

I understand it's more fun to nitpick, but I already gave you a very reasonable estimate that confirms Jonah's guess (3 ganks out of around 500-600 freighters) and also happens to fit very well with freighter costs, Red Frog hauling rates and profitability based on gank-avoiding pilot skill.

Why are you still discussing this? Exact data is not necessary: gank probability for a freighter is less than 1% based on easily available figures / observable data.

That's an average, so if you're bad, you'll get ganked more. If you're good, probability is close to zero.

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#1917 - 2014-07-14 20:19:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Organic Lager wrote:
There is no way to tell, that was exactly what I said in my first post. Your numbers are worthless because you don't know how many jumps were related to freighters, meaning you don't really know if the % killed is high or low.
Yes my data is flawed, I've openly admitted it and said as much in the original post. That doesn't make it worthless, merely flawed which it shall remain until somebody can come up with a way of measuring how many of those jumps were actually related to freighters and other haulers.

Quote:
I used 3 as an example of the other extreme, both are quite clearly and obviously wrong, the only difference is I actually knew mine was incorrect and only present it as an example. You seem to still believe that yours has some relevance, of what I'm not sure.
The relevance is in that it compares the total amount of kills as well as the total amount of freighter and hauler kills to the total amount of traffic.

Quote:
If you want to battle stupid points, 3 is actually going to be closer to the true number of freighter jumps then 35k, unless you honestly believe over 50% of the traffic through Uedama is freighters.
Yet it is far more likely that the amount of traffic through Uedama that was freighters and other haulers, during that 24 hour period, was in the region of several hundred, not three.

It's a choke point between trade hubs, there is going to be an enormous amount of freighter traffic through there, just as there is Niarja.

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Ramona McCandless
Silent Vale
LinkNet
#1918 - 2014-07-14 20:27:24 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Organic Lager wrote:


[quote]If you want to battle stupid points, 3 is actually going to be closer to the true number of freighter jumps then 35k, unless you honestly believe over 50% of the traffic through Uedama is freighters.
Yet it is far more likely that the amount of traffic through Uedama that was freighters and other haulers, during that 24 hour period, was in the region of several hundred, not three.


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Organic Lager
Drinking Buddies
#1919 - 2014-07-14 20:29:12 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
@Organic

I understand it's more fun to nitpick, but I already gave you a very reasonable estimate that confirms Jonah's guess (3 ganks out of around 500-600 freighters) and also happens to fit very well with freighter costs, Red Frog hauling rates and profitability based on gank-avoiding pilot skill.

Why are you still discussing this? Exact data is not necessary: gank probability for a freighter is less than 1% based on easily available figures / observable data.

That's an average, so if you're bad, you'll get ganked more. If you're good, probability is close to zero.


I agree with you and based on the numbers, ganking once again seems to be in a good place, no changes required. 2 reasons I'm still talking

#1 jonah still doesn't seem to get it

#2 we only have 4 pages to go!
Carmen Electra
AlcoDOTTE
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#1920 - 2014-07-14 20:32:24 UTC
C'mon guys. 100 pages, we can do this! Roll