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An analysis of nullsec mining changes in Odyssey

First post
Author
Danni stark
#141 - 2013-05-09 13:29:18 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
Petya Gladiator wrote:
Odyssey is on sisi now, i just checked the ice anomaly in null, and it looks same amount as in high. 4 hour respawns, then cloacky campers, who will mine ice in null. http://i.imgur.com/22G88Ao.jpg



who will mine ice in null? any one with half a brain.

well, anyone with half a brain who doesn't live in a region blackops is hotdropping anything that moves in


*shrug* retrievers are cheap.
pmchem
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#142 - 2013-05-09 16:19:15 UTC
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
When there are too many ice miners the price of isotopes drops, and then people stop mining because the hourly rate is so low. I never saw this as a problem because the problem was self-correcting.

So I'm considering this desire to change the ice system as a desire to push ice miners into low/nullsec. Since the highsec situation wasn't broken,...


You're really just discrediting yourself here after a mostly good original post. Current highsec ice mining isn't a problem and isn't broken? heh.

https://twitter.com/pmchem/ || http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/community-spotlight-garpa/ || Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Sir Marksalot
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#143 - 2013-05-09 20:26:53 UTC
Danni stark wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
Petya Gladiator wrote:
Odyssey is on sisi now, i just checked the ice anomaly in null, and it looks same amount as in high. 4 hour respawns, then cloacky campers, who will mine ice in null. http://i.imgur.com/22G88Ao.jpg



who will mine ice in null? any one with half a brain.

well, anyone with half a brain who doesn't live in a region blackops is hotdropping anything that moves in


*shrug* retrievers are cheap.

why would you ever want to mine in that
Danni stark
#144 - 2013-05-09 20:35:48 UTC
Sir Marksalot wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
Petya Gladiator wrote:
Odyssey is on sisi now, i just checked the ice anomaly in null, and it looks same amount as in high. 4 hour respawns, then cloacky campers, who will mine ice in null. http://i.imgur.com/22G88Ao.jpg



who will mine ice in null? any one with half a brain.

well, anyone with half a brain who doesn't live in a region blackops is hotdropping anything that moves in


*shrug* retrievers are cheap.

why would you ever want to mine in that


because i'm lazy, poor, and no fucks are given if they get turned in to wrecks.

next question?
Sir Marksalot
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#145 - 2013-05-09 20:40:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir Marksalot
Masumi SinTe wrote:


1) Because you stop the logistics/intel nigthmare. These pilots making 7-10m isk/h in high sec could be doing 30/40m isk/h in 0.0 with close to 0 risk asuming that they are inside the blue donut field (Cloacky ***** are always a problem....but you could deal with that...)

2) And that's the problem


I understand the 0.0 logistics....they are 10 times easier than deep Wh's actually, and not a biggie, but a waste when you could potentially make a nice production now in 0.0 (WITH NEXT PATCH, that's what i'm talking about)

About CTA, i can't really argue with you since i don't know how big blobs manage that, so, maybe you are right. I was in a ****** corp probably, but i've been there, done that for almost a year....so yeah...at least SOME little 0.0 experience i do have.


What i can't understand about "0.0 people" like i said, it's how you don't want to totally cut off the high sec link, trully live in 0.0, make it your home, your life, your space, and forget about high sec.



30-40m/hr is actually terrible for a solo pilot. You do realize that, right? The waste would be for everyone to suddenly decide they want to put in twice the man-hours into getting anything done.

e: I forgot to mention something about how awful POS are, and how ****** stations can be(patch is fixing this). So here you go.
Sir Marksalot
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#146 - 2013-05-09 20:44:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir Marksalot
Danni stark wrote:


because i'm lazy, poor, and no fucks are given if they get turned in to wrecks.

next question?


Bad yield that makes a low-income activity even lower. If you don't have the skills (or isk) for an exhumer then fly a covetor at least, jesus.
Danni stark
#147 - 2013-05-09 21:07:18 UTC
Sir Marksalot wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


because i'm lazy, poor, and no fucks are given if they get turned in to wrecks.

next question?


Bad yield that makes a low-income activity even lower. If you don't have the skills (or isk) for an exhumer then fly a covetor at least, jesus.


i'm too lazy to even point out the parts of that which are just incorrect.
Masumi SinTe
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#148 - 2013-05-09 22:20:15 UTC
Sir Marksalot wrote:

30-40m/hr is actually terrible for a solo pilot. You do realize that, right? The waste would be for everyone to suddenly decide they want to put in twice the man-hours into getting anything done.

e: I forgot to mention something about how awful POS are, and how ****** stations can be(patch is fixing this). So here you go.


I totally realize that, AND you have a good point about, but for someone with 1m-1,5m Sp 30/40m /h is great. I'm not saying that you make combat pilots mine, what my message is here is "Why don't you get around 20-30 high sec miners - who are getting about 10m/h - and take them to mine in null with an ore buyback program", if the offer is in real deep 0.0, it's almost safer than high sec...and you can repay a hulk loss in a couple of hours.

Yes, cloacky campers are a problem, but it's a problem for 0.0 as a whole, not only mining (And a mechanic that should change, SOMETHING should be able to pinpoint them )


And yes, null industry just sucks right now, it will get better the nxt patch, and that's what i'm talking about.



But....i'm just daydreaming, i dream about a big war front of soldiers fighting away from home system while they industrial backbone keeps the ships coming for them. Right now is....go fight, import ships from HS, rinse and repeat, and i don't think it will change ^^
Danni stark
#149 - 2013-05-09 22:24:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Danni stark
25 day old character, 53.7m/hour in strong truesec ice anoms.

just throwing that out there.
Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#150 - 2013-05-10 06:49:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Jita Bloodtear
This is an analysis of ideal highsec ice product supply vs galaxy need. Most of the statistics I include here are just because players might find them interesting. Please enjoy the statistics:

These ice fields post-expansion:
Blue ice (Gallente): 17 systems with 23 ice belts
Clear Icicle (Amarr): 24 systems with 28 ice belts
White Glaze (Caldari): 25 systems with 30 ice belts

Glacial Mass (Minmatar): 16 systems with 17 ice belts

A fuel block takes:
10 isotopes
3.75 ozone
3.75 heavy water

A highsec ice field provides:
750k isotopes
62.5k ozone
125k HW
2500 stront

Let's examine our ice need
Based on Jita market history, towers are consumed in the ratio of 37% / 22% / 41% (S/M/L)
This implies the average tower consumes (37*10 + 22*20 + 41*40)/100 = 24.5 fuel blocks/hr
There were last reported 21,543 online towers
That's 13.26mil fuel blocks/day
Or 132.6mil isotopes/day

Let's look at isotopes:
98 ice belts cycled 5 times per day = 490 ice fields of supply
These numbers place highsec isotope production at 367.5mil/day
With the CCP estimated need at 459.375mil isotopes/day
This implies the galaxy has a leftover 326.8mil isotopes every day
Some of this will be lost in assets never to be found
The rest will be consumed by capital ship jump fuel
With an old estimate of 15k capital ship pilots at any given time
This implies the average cap pilot uses 21.8k isotopes/day
If this is true, then highsec technically could supply 80% of the isotopes to the game.

Let's look at the new highsec ozone supply for curiosity's sake:
We have a demand of 13.26mil fuel blocks/day
Which is 49.7mil ozone/day
We estimate cyno usage at 2mil/day
And JB usage at 4mil/day

This puts the galaxy at a 55.7mil ozone/day need.
Ideally highsec produces 30.6mil ozone/day
That's an estimated 55% of the galaxy's ozone need

Now for Heavy Water:
We have a demand of 13.26mil fuel blocks/day
Which is 49.7mil HW/day
We estimate an extra rorqual consumption of HW at 10mil/day
Placing a galaxy demand around 59.7mil/day
Ideally highsec produces 61.2mil HW/day
Highsec would satisfy 97.5% of galaxy heavy water need

Please note that these highsec supply numbers are based on the theory that 100% of all highsec ice belts will be mined to completion 5 times a day. I still consider this to be unreasonably idealistic. It implies any highsec ice belt anywhere in existence will only have an average life span of 48 minutes (20hrs spent respawning, 4hrs being mined out 5 times). Due to low population timezones, isolated highsec islands, piracy, ice miner locust swarm response/travel times and the such, the actual highsec supply will probably be 40-60% the numbers presented here.
Sir Marksalot
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#151 - 2013-05-10 07:21:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir Marksalot
Danni stark wrote:
Sir Marksalot wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


because i'm lazy, poor, and no fucks are given if they get turned in to wrecks.

next question?


Bad yield that makes a low-income activity even lower. If you don't have the skills (or isk) for an exhumer then fly a covetor at least, jesus.


i'm too lazy to even point out the parts of that which are just incorrect.


Retrievers mine faster than covetors and hulks? I wasn't aware they changed that in the new patch~

e:
Danni stark wrote:
25 day old character, 53.7m/hour in strong truesec ice anoms.

just throwing that out there.


If this was directed towards what Masumi and I were talking about then I'm just going to go out on a limb here and say I don't think many hulls are made out of ice.

But that is more or less the reason I'm taking up mining.
P3po
Perkone
Caldari State
#152 - 2013-05-10 07:58:20 UTC
I would say good advice is to mine TONS of DG right now, while it is available, refine and hold the LO :D
Danni stark
#153 - 2013-05-10 09:06:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Danni stark
Sir Marksalot wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
Sir Marksalot wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


because i'm lazy, poor, and no fucks are given if they get turned in to wrecks.

next question?


Bad yield that makes a low-income activity even lower. If you don't have the skills (or isk) for an exhumer then fly a covetor at least, jesus.


i'm too lazy to even point out the parts of that which are just incorrect.


Retrievers mine faster than covetors and hulks? I wasn't aware they changed that in the new patch~

e:
Danni stark wrote:
25 day old character, 53.7m/hour in strong truesec ice anoms.

just throwing that out there.


If this was directed towards what Masumi and I were talking about then I'm just going to go out on a limb here and say I don't think many hulls are made out of ice.

But that is more or less the reason I'm taking up mining.


depends on the fit, 3x mlu IIs is bigger than the covetor's hull bonus (but no i won't be pedantic and try and argue a retriever mines more based on that, neither of us are stupid enough to argue that point), but the difference is not sufficient so that it makes a **** of difference unless you have some one hauling for you, at which point it becomes very debatable which one truly mines faster.

you're correct again, they aren't made out of ice. however, i believe a lot of them were built pre... whatever expansion it was that rebalanced the barges. so i don't see the supply running out any time soon, especially if you love the ginger haired bastard child known as the procurer. besides, regular miners will still mine ore between anom spawns. even systems with 3 ice anomalies will have times when there are no ice anomalies active, and the miners will flock to the large grav sites once more.
Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#154 - 2013-05-10 10:07:31 UTC
Let's examine the changes to the supply of ozone in the galaxy.

This is a chart showcasing the changes to ice, and the new ice product yield from the ice anomalies.

The very last chart in that picture shows the relative ozone supply yield from mining in each of these systems before and after the changes. The "New" column is including the x2 mining rate, and the "Old" column is still the 1x mining rate. The mining yields compared in this chart assume that the new ice anomalies respawn instantly. And since they don't the actually supply of ozone will be substantially less than shown.

  • Lowsec will yield less than 16.18% the ozone it used to
  • Bad Nullsec will yield less than 44.88% the ozone it used to
  • Good Nullsec will yield less than 59.27% the ozone it used to


Points of Order:

Ozone and the other ice products will rise in value accordingly and you'll still make >= isk/hr
Probably. But the galaxy is still going to be massively shorted on the supply of ozone.

You mine twice as fast so you'll pull in ozone faster
False. You used to be able to mine pure ozone by mining pure Dark Glitter. Dark Glitter now constitutes a very small percentage of the new ice fields. And those ice fields are being artificially restricted with 4hr respawn timers that will restrict the supply of ozone even further.

But you get ozone from the other nullsec ices
True, but those ices are still far less than what Dark Glitter supplied to the galaxy in ozone before the expansion. Therefore the overall supply of ozone will still decrease substantially. The chart is including all those ozone sources in the calculations.

Why does CCP hate lowsec so much?
I don't know. But ice mining in lowsec is about to get a whole lot worse.

Why should we care that ozone is going to be expensive?
As an individual miner you don't need to. As a speculator it's a great time to invest in ozone. Increasing the value of ozone dramatically in relation to the other ice products is contrary to the intended design of sec status correlated ice spawns. As you can see here, ozone was meant to be a common product of low-end ices. While high-end ices were meant to favor an ultra rare and presumably expensive strontium. This is obviously not how things turned out. But it'd still be nice if the ices were restored to a tiered value system where Krystallos was actually the best ice. Inverted ozone output of each ice would have this effect.
Ajunta Thor
Tri-gun
An Alliance Has No Name
#155 - 2013-05-27 15:19:34 UTC
CCP Fozzie wrote:
Ice prices are not currently affected at all by supply, because supply is so high it might as well be infinite.

We're adjusting the supply to have a fairly mild (but noticeable) affect on prices.

Completely unnecessary analogy:

Currently since supply is practically infinite the ice market has no restrictions at all except people's desires to participate in the market.

After the patch we're giving the market some gentle supply restriction, like tying one wrist to the bedpost loosely with soft silk rope. Just enough to make things a bit more exciting for the market, not enough to make a safeword necessary.


Ok i think i see what your getting at here. Like you said ice prices are not effected by supply which makes the market for them basically not a market. Its a play thing for those with crazy enough to mine. By adding in these changes you will essentially begin bleeding off all the bulk ice on the market until it reaches a level in which the market itself becomes a "competitive virtual market" AKA supply comes in line with demand. That is great. I will say however that the changes themselves may be drastic enough to drop supply below if not well below demand thus driving prices through the roof. This will only be found out in time.

In my opinion its almost inevitable that supply will drop below demand simply because the way ice mining is structured right now its nearly impossible to know what the demand for ice is. (CCP could find that out but the amount of work and number crunching required would be too much to ask.)

When supply does drop below demand and we discover that the current amount of available ice is not enough for the pilots of eve would more ice then be added in kind of like the upcoming mineral changes?

To me this change seems like the very first step in a process to fine tune ice mining and make it more relevant. As it is right now there is no competition at all for ice mining. You warp to the belt mine ice dont even got to change your bookmark because its always there. This will make ice mining better fiscally and competitively but its going to need some fine tuning along the way. And unlike other aspects of eve if and when it needs fine tuning it wont be something that can be ignored until there is time for it because a lot of things all over eve could go disastrously wrong very fast and possibly alienate many players should the supply fall off enough.
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#156 - 2013-05-28 07:01:42 UTC
pmchem wrote:
And, of course, your statement that ice belts won't be around when people get home is too strong.


If a group of 30 miners can clear an anomaly in half an hour, that means for any time you are playing there is a 1/8 chance that there is still ice available to mine. If you want to harvest ice you will have to be prepared to wait for up to four hours for an anomaly to be available, and even when an anomaly is available you'll be rushing to harvest as much ice as possible before the belt expires.

So expect to see miners fitting for maximum yield, expect to see ganking increase, though I imagine gankers will be just as upset about having to wait four hours for targets to appear.

pmchem wrote:
You also discussed in various places the effort that people will have to go through to mine out fields and get them to respawn, like this quote: "an obstacle to harvesting the ice of true value. This will vastly hurt the profitability of nullsec ice miners and discourage them from mining." Yet, we do not know where prices will settle. Given supply (constrained) and demand (growing), it may be likely that the nullsec miners will be happy mining ice of any variant, because over a period of X days their expected value for the aggregate activity may be high. Kinda like ratting and finding faction/officer spawns. Not everything can be a faction spawn.


I fully expect ice prices to rise to the point where it's worth the nullsec miner's time to harvest ice. In fact I'd suggest that ice products will rise in value to the point where more miners will appear in nullsec as combat pilots switch to ice harvesting, at which point the forums will flood with tears about how "mining is boring", leading to CCP adjusting the game play of mining, leading to further increases in mining product prices as the people who previously enjoyed mining simply give up.
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#157 - 2013-05-28 07:10:32 UTC
Sir Marksalot wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


because i'm lazy, poor, and no fucks are given if they get turned in to wrecks.

next question?


Bad yield that makes a low-income activity even lower. If you don't have the skills (or isk) for an exhumer then fly a covetor at least, jesus.


Why would anyone fly a Covetor or Hulk when a Mackinaw has a far better tank and a huge ore bay meaning fewer trips back to station (with or without an Orca booster in the belt)?

Do you even harvest ice?
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#158 - 2013-05-28 07:23:24 UTC
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
Please note that these highsec supply numbers are based on the theory that 100% of all highsec ice belts will be mined to completion 5 times a day. I still consider this to be unreasonably idealistic. It implies any highsec ice belt anywhere in existence will only have an average life span of 48 minutes (20hrs spent respawning, 4hrs being mined out 5 times). Due to low population timezones, isolated highsec islands, piracy, ice miner locust swarm response/travel times and the such, the actual highsec supply will probably be 40-60% the numbers presented here.


Here's how it works from a hisec miner's perspective:

  • Hisec island or not, you have an ice harvesting fleet in the system which the ice spawns in. That's what alts are for. The anomalies aren't going to be in different systems. There will be no "locust swarm travel time".
  • If there is an anomaly present in the system, you undock and mine as much ice as you can before the belt despawns.
  • If there isn't an anomaly present, you check another ice system where you already have an ice harvesting fleet.
  • Once all the anomalies have been despawned you watch your X constellation mining intel channel for news of a new anomaly appearing, while focussing on your market, manufacturing and beer consuming activities.


Have a look at the fleets harvesting ice today. There are individuals with 20-30 strong ice harvesting fleets. I will be surprised if there are ice anomalies that routinely last longer than 45 minutes. Miners will disperse to find systems where ice anomalies are available for even a fraction of their usual daily play time. The folks who currently harvest while at work will use out of game comms to keep in touch with corp mates who are on during work hours, providing an equivalent to the "X constellation mining intel channel" I mentioned in that list.

There are no low population timezones where the population of ice miners is too low to field 30 high yield mining ships any time an ice anomaly appears. Regardless of timezone, the hisec anomalies will all be mined out well within 48 minutes. Expect to see the shortest lived hisec anomalies being popped in single-digit minutes.

The actual hisec supply will end up being about 99% of the theoretical maximum.
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#159 - 2013-05-28 07:42:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Mara Rinn
Sir Marksalot wrote:
e: Not to mention that there just isn't currently enough low-ends to do any meaningful production in 0.0 without importing tons. This is getting helped along quite a bit with the next big patch.


Erm... there are plenty of lowends in nullsec, it's just that nullsec miners only want to mine in grav sites, and they pick the two or three most lucrative sites to mine then ignore everything else (i.e.: the "hidden belts"). Mining in belts is a suicide wish. So it's not that there aren't enough low-ends to do meaningful production in nullsec.

The reason lowends are not mined in nullsec is because it's easier to import them as one freighter load of highly compressed minerals, rather than haul 40 freighter loads of lowends from mining systems to manufacturing systems (and that is assuming you can compress or refine the ore at the point of capture). You can verify this for yourself: head to any nullsec belt and run a survey scanner on the veldspar, scordite, pyroxeres and plagioclase. You'll see that there are mountains of the stuff out there which would keep any mining fleet busy for hours. The problem is that it's in belts that anyone can simply warp to without having to scan the system first, and then you have mountains of ore which you can't refine, so you can't do mineral compression. The best you can hope for is rorqual based ore compression which means having a rorqual in the system.

So what it comes down to is that the easy logistics of jump freighting a load of mineral compression modules down from Jita is far, far easier than acquiring those lowends locally. CCP could attempt to address this by making modules take up more volume than the minerals they were created from, which would mean things like the 425mm railgun take up 1500m3 of cargo space instead of 50m3.

While industry is broken, I don't see anyone in nullsec in a big rush to un-break mineral compression. Instead they whine about how hisec industry is too easy.

I have some ideas on how to fix industry in general, though they're not strictly related to ice harvesting.
Danni stark
#160 - 2013-05-28 07:52:29 UTC
Mara Rinn wrote:
Sir Marksalot wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


because i'm lazy, poor, and no fucks are given if they get turned in to wrecks.

next question?


Bad yield that makes a low-income activity even lower. If you don't have the skills (or isk) for an exhumer then fly a covetor at least, jesus.


Why would anyone fly a Covetor or Hulk when a Mackinaw has a far better tank and a huge ore bay meaning fewer trips back to station (with or without an Orca booster in the belt)?

Do you even harvest ice?


people probably fly a covetor or a hulk because if they are in a fleet then tank and cargo are both as relevant as a fruit cake is to a venus fly trap plant.