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An analysis of nullsec mining changes in Odyssey

First post
Author
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#21 - 2013-05-01 17:08:56 UTC
According to Fozzie, the ice anoms will be found only in systems that used to have static ice belts and there will be as many anoms as there were static ice belts in that system. So systems that currently have 1 static ice belt will have one ice anom that once mined out respawns 4 hours later, systems that had 2 static belts will have 2 ice anoms, etc.
Danni stark
#22 - 2013-05-01 17:14:26 UTC
PotatoOverdose wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you assuming that there would only be one ice anom active at a time per system?

In null it is not uncommon to have multiple grav sites in a single system. In sov it is possible for an upgraded system to have many respawning anoms simultaneously.

Do we know that each system will have only one respawning ice anom? They could just as easily have two or three, no?


the number of ice anoms will be equal to the number of static belts the system currently has.

which makes a system like osmon in the forge a gold mine, it's going to have 3 anoms.
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#23 - 2013-05-01 18:09:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Bugsy VanHalen
Ekaterina 'Ghetto' Thurn wrote:


The prices of high sec obtainable minerals are currently falling and the price of ice products are increasing. These are both both correct statements but as your analysis states miners want to mine whatever makes the best ISK. Most miners mine to make ISK so nul sec miners will continue to target rocks heavy with Morphite, Megacyte, Zydrine, & Nocxium. The Spod will still be last on their list if mined at all. Once the changes come in on June 4th high sec miners will look to mine ice only as much as possible as the prices for ice products will have risen further by then. As a result of all of this the prices for high sec obtainable minerals will rise back up and maybe even go above the previous higher price levels.

I agree with what you say here. But you miss the key factor. Even if low end minerals rise due to high sec miners switching to ICE, the lowe end ores in high sec will not increase in value over the new composition null sec ores.Why? because the changes to the ore was the addition of low end minerals. If the price of low end minerals goes way up, even higher than it was, this will also drive up to price of the null sec ores as they have both low end and high end minerals in them.

Just for example look as the basic null sec mining system. The lowest industry level giving only the small hidden belt. These composition changes have drastically affected these belts. The small belt has to be completely mined out to get it to respawn. You can not just cherry pick the A,B,C's as they are limited and you need to flip the belt to get more A,B,C's to mine. The SPOD has to be mined to flip the belt and get more A,B,C's.

As far as low end minerals go, based on the OP's data, currently a small hidden belt yields a little over 6 million trit, over 1 million pyrite, and about 1 million mexallon. With the changes that jumps to over 91 million trit, over 12 million pyrite, and well over 1 million mexallon. This is not an increase in the volume of ore than needs to be mined, but in the resulting minerals after refining. This is a huge increase for the average null sec miner/industrialist.

To put this in perspective, say a null sec industrial player has 4 accounts. He has his own little corner in the alliance space he lives in, a couple systems in a dead end area protected by his alliance. With his 4 accounts, 3 HULKS and a Roqual he is able to maintain an industry level of 2 easily solo mining with his 4 accounts. With the changes to ore composition is is well worth while to flip the small hidden belts, especially if they are all you have. Previously completely mining out the small hidden belt would not even give enough low end minerals to build a single battleship. but with the changes you get enough trit to build several, pyrite is still a little lean, and mexallon will still be in short supply, but if the industrial player is building ships for his alliance he now only needs 1 jump freighter load of make up materials from high sec where he previously would have needed 3-4 loads.

Titanium was the biggest bottleneck for null sec industry, with the new ore compositions it will be in abundance for the average industrial player. They may still need to bring in bulk materials for capital ship building, but the average industrial player who mines there own minerals tritanium will not be such a problem anymore.
l0rd carlos
New Order Outreach Division
CODE.
#24 - 2013-05-01 18:22:32 UTC
Peter Tjordenskiold wrote:
l0rd carlos wrote:
Why should the Rorqual get better in compression? Isn't the whole point of those changes that the minerals/ores/ice should be used localy rather then shipping _everything_ to jita?

Same with HS Ice belt, those are not there to **** of botters, the change is made so people in 0.0 start mining it more for their local demand.


Read the forums and dont make silly assumptions

Vice versa
I was asking questions because i don't know much about this matter.

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CCP Fozzie
C C P
C C P Alliance
#25 - 2013-05-01 18:40:26 UTC
Thank you very much for your analysis Jita Bloodtear, I'm gonna spend some time considering you perspective and will continue watching this thread.

I'm on vacation today so I'll keep my post short, but I do want to make clear that no aspects of these changes are designed to combat botting. I leave that work to our excellent Team Security and I focus on game systems balance.

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EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#26 - 2013-05-01 18:58:14 UTC
I would like to reiterate something I said before: I approve of ice compression being difficult and time-consuming as it increases the ability of nullsec entities to actually tax it. Making it easy to simply compress and jump out ice makes it far less likely that ice will be refined in nullsec stations with a tax, weakening the ability of nullsec entities to fund themselves through taxing local economic activity (instead of things like moons).
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#27 - 2013-05-01 19:00:45 UTC
Also some info on the composition of the null/low ice fields would be handy so we can analyze the changes with those numbers, instead of just the highsec numbers, would be handy.
Makari Aeron
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#28 - 2013-05-01 19:01:39 UTC
My worry is that folks who have racial towers in null that do not line up with the area's racial isotope will incur a cost astronomically higher. I strongly believe that this change in ice (mainly the 4 hour respawn) will kill tower diversity in null, not to mention smaller corporations who want POS production. To me, this change makes it harder for your average joe new player to start up a POS manufacturing endeavor.

I would also highly recommend speeding up rorq compression for ice from 1 block per cycle to 5 blocks per cycle. This would in theory enable a rorqual to keep up with 10 ice miners thus catering to corporate mining ops (and incidentally to those with multiple accounts).

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pmchem
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#29 - 2013-05-01 19:07:51 UTC  |  Edited by: pmchem
Jita Bloodtear wrote:

The new ice changes have the effect of turning a relaxing night of mining into frustrating repeated 4hr downtimes - which means players will log out and go play other games. "The high sec anoms contain 2500 units of their racial isotope ice." The estimated time to completion of these belts was given to be around 45 mins for 30 highsec miners. This means for the timezones that people play they'll be able to mine for less than 16% of the time. Friendly group mining with corpmates will become competitively inhibitive and discourage the formation of player industry operations.

...but real players with busy schedules will no longer be able to mine at all when they get home. In short, the 4hr respawn timer on ice belts is not a good idea.

Right now a perfect low/nullsec ice miner pulls in 90 blocks/hr. After Odyssey the ice mining yield will double up to 180 blocks/hr. A necessity of low/nullsec ice mining is compressing the ice so you can ship it to empire for sale. Right now the rorqual can compress ore fast enough to keep up with 20 perfect ore miners. But right now it can only compress ice fast enough to keep up with 4 ice miners. After Odyssey the rorqual will ONLY BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH 2 ICE MINERS. This is highly detrimental to the goals of shifting ice mining into low/nullsec.


While in general I liked your analysis and certainly respect your opinion, I think your statements about ice are a little too speculative. I think things will not turn out as you predict.

You assume 30 ice miners will be at each highsec belt, and that group mining with corpmates will die out and discourage player industry ops. However, a counter-argument could be made that player cooperation will become only more important, as corpmates scout out different ice belts and then summon aid to mine the ice before other corps can do it. You could even see more wardecs as people try to protect "their turf" from other corps, leading to increased player interaction and cooperation beteween pvp and industry players -- prelude to a corp ready to move to low/nullsec. These are good things. And, of course, your statement that ice belts won't be around when people get home is too strong. In reality, there will be a distribution of outcomes on that front and people may need to interact with friends to find out where the ice is when they get home. What kind of gameplay is it to have a static objective which never changes, never depletes -- can never really be accomplished? Bots aside, this is a great gameplay change.

In nullsec, your rorq point is interesting, but in reality most of the ice mining will be happening in station systems where players can cooperate to haul goods back to station instead of rorq'ing it. You also discussed in various places the effort that people will have to go through to mine out fields and get them to respawn, like this quote: "an obstacle to harvesting the ice of true value. This will vastly hurt the profitability of nullsec ice miners and discourage them from mining." Yet, we do not know where prices will settle. Given supply (constrained) and demand (growing), it may be likely that the nullsec miners will be happy mining ice of any variant, because over a period of X days their expected value for the aggregate activity may be high. Kinda like ratting and finding faction/officer spawns. Not everything can be a faction spawn.

Anyway, I'd like to see how things play out on sisi, or even for a few weeks on TQ, before calling for more ice.

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EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#30 - 2013-05-01 19:11:22 UTC
Makari Aeron wrote:
My worry is that folks who have racial towers in null that do not line up with the area's racial isotope will incur a cost astronomically higher.

I disagree, and here's why. Shipping has a fixed m3 cost. For our purposes, we'll use 300m3 (this is what our local shipping service charges for shipments to and from our space to jita now that they've raised their prices to match anticipated fuel costs, so not only does it cover fuel it covers time, effort, and profit). If you're doing it yourself it costs a lot less.

Fuel is .15m3. That means that shipping adds 45 isk to the cost of the fuel to bring it from jita. Even if we assume that isotope was shipped from nullsec to jita, that's an extra 90 isk per isotope. That will matter somewhat (if you're throwing up a ratting tower you'll use the local ice) but is not at all "astronomically higher".
Vincent Athena
Photosynth
#31 - 2013-05-01 19:22:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Vincent Athena
High sec has to continue to work because that is where new players start. To bring them into part of the game that's basically broken would cause fewer of them to stay with the game.

A bad way to solve the compression issue: What if you swapped all the POSes for ones that use the ice that you got? Then you do not need to export 75% and import other ice to cover the "out of area" POSes. Yes its a overwhelming thing to do, 1000's of POSes, but it does solve the issue. (Ive been involved with the setup and take down of a few POSes. I know the magnitude of what I'm saying. Also that some POSes just are not that good for some applications). Then you just ship the ozone to high sec.

Somewhere it was stated that low and Null ice fields will be slightly bigger. This implies something much less than your recommendation of 10x.

I foresee blobs of 100 ice miners going from system to system, stripping each belt in just a few minutes. Then locust like, moving to the next. Others log in: No ice. Their only choice: Join the locust blob.

In any event, the amount of ice in high sec can only support about 35% of the ice miners that are currently operating there. The ice just will not spawn fast enough to support more, and the faster miner cycle will cause what does spawn to go away quickly. How many will do other activities? Or just log out? Drop alt accounts? Quit the game? Time will tell.

Here's an idea:
1) Keep the current miner cycle speed, or maybe buff it 25% to 50%
2) Make Null belts all contain the better isotope ice, like Thick Blue Ice, and none of the basic ice.
2a) Low sec could all be the better type too.
3) Make the better isotope ice be twice as good as high sec ice.


I liked your 4^n analysis. I note that the high ends will still be overproduced in Null, giving Null an income source selling it to high sec, and giving industrialists in High a source of those minerals. Ore actually seems to be in good shape from this change.

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Emma Royd
Fusion Enterprises Ltd
Reckless Contingency.
#32 - 2013-05-01 19:26:36 UTC
Surely you don't mean to say that CCP have come up with a half-baked idea without thinking it all the way through? I'm shocked Roll

The rorqual has always struggled to compress ice, it's been mentioned so many times on the forum but nothing changes, and it's so ridiculously easy to change, just change the production time of the blueprints. I know people have them researched for PE, but surely it's not that difficult to change a few figures in a database to reflect the change.

The future of mining in nullsec for ice seems to be very unstable, and the general costs will be rising due to having to ship more ice up from empire, but I guess everyone living in null who uses ice will be in the same situation so there won't be many with the upper hand.

I don't like the 4 hour thing, that's a big mistake, you kill the anom and if you're not a PvP'er or PVE'er you might as well log.

Personally, I've not mined anything for a while, but the thoughts of going into an anomaly with a couple of skiffs and have it die on me in a few minutes because someone else was mining it earlier, and me having to wait 4 hours for another anom to spawn will be too frustrating and I'd probably just give it up as a bad job.

These changes don't make me feel like joining a nullsec corp for the riches they can provide, they have me doubting my future.
mkint
#33 - 2013-05-01 19:52:04 UTC
ozone is the new technetium.

wanna have sov? can't, gotta have a supercap, which you can only get if you have sov.

wanna fly *any* cap, or run *any* POS? can't, have to have sov because of prohibitively expensive ice prices.

Sounds like these changes are breaking EVE even more than it already is.

Maxim 6. If violence wasn’t your last resort, you failed to resort to enough of it.

DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#34 - 2013-05-01 19:53:43 UTC
ICE belts are begining to get gett crowded! So crowded you may want to look into purchasing the ORE Faction ICE harvestors I put up for sale in Jita that increase your range & make bumping that much more difficult!

Also once Odyssy hits & ICE starts depleteing faster then an ice cube in hell these ORE Faction harvetors will give you an edge in fast draining the next ICE slab thats just out of reach to the poor noobs that don't have the boosted range you'll have!
An' then [email protected], he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
mynnna
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#35 - 2013-05-01 19:57:37 UTC  |  Edited by: mynnna
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
Right now a perfect low/nullsec ice miner pulls in 90 blocks/hr. After Odyssey the ice mining yield will double up to 180 blocks/hr. A necessity of low/nullsec ice mining is compressing the ice so you can ship it to empire for sale. Right now the rorqual can compress ore fast enough to keep up with 20 perfect ore miners. But right now it can only compress ice fast enough to keep up with 4 ice miners. After Odyssey the rorqual will ONLY BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH 2 ICE MINERS. This is highly detrimental to the goals of shifting ice mining into low/nullsec.

Or you just ship it raw and pass the markup on to the consumer.

There's also the point pmchem made. As CCP does more and more to de-emphasize top down (eg moon) income as a source of alliance income in the future, bottom up income, including mining taxes, will be more and more important. Right now buffing the Rorqual would be a means to evading those taxes more easily, thanks to how taxation works. Now if we want to discuss changing how mining taxes are collected (say, automatically at point of collection; I'm sure we can come up with a reasonable lore based explanation), then I'd be happy to talk about and advocate for compression buffs.

Jita Bloodtear wrote:
Comparing the new ice anomalies to the nullsec ore belts. In terms of manhours needed to complete each belt we can see a startling difference in size. Even if CCP upholds the small 2500 ice fields in empire, the nullsec ice fields need to be expanded in size by at least a factor of 4x-8x to remain on par with other nullsec mining activities. An increase in nullsec ice field size would also go a long ways to moving that desired 20% ice mining out to low/nullsec. Likewise, the 4hr respawn timer for low/nullsec ice fields makes little sense because the location you're attempting to throttle is highsec only.

I think you're getting ahead of yourself. We don't actually have the details about the belt volumes yet. If it proves to be an issue, I'll make a note of it and bring it up with Fozzie directly Blink

As to the respawn timer, there should be about 650 nullsec anomalies by my count, compared to the ~100 that will exist in highsec. Those ~100 will supply 80% of the game's ice, which means nullsec would be capable of supplying about 500% of the game's ice, even if those belts are only 2500 block belts. That number goes higher, of course, if the block count climbs. So, I don't really see the need for them to respawn instantly.

Jita Bloodtear wrote:
The nullsec ore belts actually do have massive timezone imbalance issues because fresh belts will only spawn during downtime. Which means that the euro players are able to consume all the valuable ores long before any other timezone even wakes up. During the question answer session at fanfest it was stated that the new nullsec ice anoms will maintain their current variety of ice types. The demo from the presentation showed an ice anom as "Pristine White Glaze field" rather than a more generic "Medium Ice Field" which implied a homogeneous assortment of ice inside. But many quotes since indicate that each ice anom will contain many mixed types of ice ("The best ice anoms found in the lowest truesec in all areas of space will contain all three non-racial ice types.")

The timezone imbalance in the ore sites is a good point here.

Jita Bloodtear wrote:
There are also concerns that nullsec miners will be forced to mine terrible "highsec ice" rather than the nullsec variants, just to force a respawn of that ice belt into something worth more.

Jita Bloodtear wrote:
It seems that the intention is to force nullsec miners into mining the racial variants of ice by placing it as an obstacle to harvesting the ice of true value. This will vastly hurt the profitability of nullsec ice miners and discourage them from mining at this greatly increased risk, when they could just mine safely in highsec for the same profit.


Before prices went bonkers a couple months ago, dark glitter looks to have been worth 25-30m/hr, and the racial ices around 10m (with a mackinaw and max boosts.)

At today's prices, that's 16-19m/hr for the racial ices and about 36m/hr for the dark glitter.

That means that post-patch, at today's prices, the racial ices will be in the 32-38m/hr range and the dark glitter will be worth 72m/hr.

So, excuse me while I express absolutely zero sympathy that you will be "forced" to mine something so "terrible" that it will be worth more than dark glitter is now. Your income is going to be considerably higher overall than a highsec ice miner's will be, even if the sites are still only 2500 blocks, so there's no actual risk/reward imbalance between ice. If a risk/reward imbalance exists, its between the highsec ice sites and the nullsec ore sites, but given that the ore sites have 4-8x the volume and respawn instantly, I'd say that the nullsec ore sites still have the competitive edge.

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DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#36 - 2013-05-01 20:01:30 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
mynnna wrote:

stuff


How come you don't have a CSM tag yet? Hurry up & sign that NDA LolBlink

EDIT: HA I just realized I got more likes then a CSM member P
An' then [email protected], he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#37 - 2013-05-01 20:07:57 UTC
mynnna wrote:

That means that post-patch, at today's prices, the racial ices will be in the 32-38m/hr range and the dark glitter will be worth 72m/hr.


It'll be interesting to see how fast these NULL SEC ice fields deplete versus HI SEC fields.
Do NULL SEC ICE bears ISBOX like you see in HI SEC with 20 odd ships?
An' then [email protected], he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Mathrin
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#38 - 2013-05-01 20:24:04 UTC
You guys need to get away from compression, and exporting to jita. This system is not made for that. The new changes are to encourage local markets independent of highsec trade hubs. Ice isn't supposed to be compressed . It's supposed to be used to manufacture things like fuel blocks to be sold to your alliance and alles in your area.
mynnna
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#39 - 2013-05-01 20:28:02 UTC
DarthNefarius wrote:
mynnna wrote:

stuff


How come you don't have a CSM tag yet? Hurry up & sign that NDA LolBlink

EDIT: HA I just realized I got more likes then a CSM member P


Because we haven't officially taken office yet or something. And, I've got 1100 more likes on the other character that I used to post on. And, I've only been posting on this character for a couple of months, so I'd pass you in short order anyway.

So there.

DarthNefarius wrote:
mynnna wrote:

That means that post-patch, at today's prices, the racial ices will be in the 32-38m/hr range and the dark glitter will be worth 72m/hr.


It'll be interesting to see how fast these NULL SEC ice fields deplete versus HI SEC fields.
Do NULL SEC ICE bears ISBOX like you see in HI SEC with 20 odd ships?

I know plenty of miners in null multibox just the same way that many in highsec do. How fast the belts deplete will depend on their size.

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CCP Fozzie
C C P
C C P Alliance
#40 - 2013-05-01 20:49:37 UTC
I hear we're comparing like totals in this thread now so I came running.

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