These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Science & Industry

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
123Next pageLast page
 

An analysis of nullsec mining changes in Odyssey

First post
Author
Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#1 - 2013-05-01 07:26:00 UTC
I'm the author of the nullsec sov mining guide (which you can find here). This thread is going to present data relevant to nullsec mining post-Odyssey.

Firstly, the various ores are going to refine into a different set of minerals than they currently do (the details can be found here). The goal of this was to provide more low-end minerals (tritanium, pyerite, and mexallon) to nullsec to help with local manufacturing. Right now all major nullsec manufacturing jobs have to import these low-end minerals from empire using compression techniques (425mm railguns, 800mm artillery, etc).

Since my expertise is in the nullsec mining belts, here are the stats on the current supply of minerals from the belts today, and what they will supply after the expansion. You'll note that the low-end mineral supply to nullsec has increased by a factor of 10. Comparing the isk yields/hr is meaningless, but here it is anyways.

Manufacturing was originally planned for mineral consumption ratios of 1x/4x/16x/64x for mega/zydr/nocx etc. You will see this reflected in the mineral requirements for BPOs, and the global consumption in Eve is close to this ratio even today. Local manufacture is hence dependent on having a balanced supply of minerals in these 4^n ratios (i.e. if you have 64mil tritanium you'll need around 8mil pyerite). Since tritanium is the traditional nullsec manufacturing bottleneck I've decided to balance the supply relative to how much tritanium you can pull out of the first three hidden belts. As you can see, post-Odyssey nullsec will be much more balanced in terms of minerals that can be used for local construction. You are no longer pulling up 131x more megacyte than you can possibly use.

Analysis of changes:
- The new ore compositions will create a better balance of manufacturable minerals
- Slightly more mexallon is needed
Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#2 - 2013-05-01 07:26:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Jita Bloodtear
"CCP Fozzie" wrote:
When Odyssey is released, the current static ice belts spread throughout space will be removed from the game, and replaced by a series of Ore Anomalies that will spawn and respawn only in systems that previously contained the aforementioned static ice belts. These belts will respawn in exactly the same system four hours after they are completed, to ensure that players from all time zones will be able to partake.

The new ice changes have the effect of turning a relaxing night of mining into frustrating repeated 4hr downtimes - which means players will log out and go play other games. "The high sec anoms contain 2500 units of their racial isotope ice." The estimated time to completion of these belts was given to be around 45 mins for 30 highsec miners. This means for the timezones that people play they'll be able to mine for less than 16% of the time. Friendly group mining with corpmates will become competitively inhibitive and discourage the formation of player industry operations.

This is stated to be a means of throttling the supply of highsec ice into the game, but is believed to be an anti-bot measure. The new system is making mining operations miserable for everyone in order to mildly inconvenience mining bots. Bots don't care about mining during off-hours, but real players with busy schedules will no longer be able to mine at all when they get home. In short, the 4hr respawn timer on ice belts is not a good idea.

Right now a perfect low/nullsec ice miner pulls in 90 blocks/hr. After Odyssey the ice mining yield will double up to 180 blocks/hr. A necessity of low/nullsec ice mining is compressing the ice so you can ship it to empire for sale. Right now the rorqual can compress ore fast enough to keep up with 20 perfect ore miners. But right now it can only compress ice fast enough to keep up with 4 ice miners. After Odyssey the rorqual will ONLY BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH 2 ICE MINERS. This is highly detrimental to the goals of shifting ice mining into low/nullsec.

Comparing the new ice anomalies to the nullsec ore belts. In terms of manhours needed to complete each belt we can see a startling difference in size. Even if CCP upholds the small 2500 ice fields in empire, the nullsec ice fields need to be expanded in size by at least a factor of 4x-8x to remain on par with other nullsec mining activities. An increase in nullsec ice field size would also go a long ways to moving that desired 20% ice mining out to low/nullsec. Likewise, the 4hr respawn timer for low/nullsec ice fields makes little sense because the location you're attempting to throttle is highsec only.

There are also concerns that nullsec miners will be forced to mine terrible "highsec ice" rather than the nullsec variants, just to force a respawn of that ice belt into something worth more.

The nullsec ore belts actually do have massive timezone imbalance issues because fresh belts will only spawn during downtime. Which means that the euro players are able to consume all the valuable ores long before any other timezone even wakes up. During the question answer session at fanfest it was stated that the new nullsec ice anoms will maintain their current variety of ice types. The demo from the presentation showed an ice anom as "Pristine White Glaze field" rather than a more generic "Medium Ice Field" which implied a homogeneous assortment of ice inside. But many quotes since indicate that each ice anom will contain many mixed types of ice ("The best ice anoms found in the lowest truesec in all areas of space will contain all three non-racial ice types.");

It seems that the intention is to force nullsec miners into mining the racial variants of ice by placing it as an obstacle to harvesting the ice of true value. This will vastly hurt the profitability of nullsec ice miners and discourage them from mining at this greatly increased risk, when they could just mine safely in highsec for the same profit.

"We want to make sure that for those miners and industrialists that do want to move to nullsec, they have available opportunities that support their playstyle."
Right now the nullsec ice miner play style is being hurt significantly by the proposed changes.

Summary:

  • The 4hr respawn timer on ice fields will hurt all players clustered around the two peak primetimes of the game (EU and US) and make mining an unavailable activity for anyone within those timezones.
  • The size of low/nullsec ice fields needs to be increased by an order of magnitude
  • Rorqual ice compression needs to be increased in speed by a factor of 10
  • 4 hour respawn timers on low/nullsec ice fields do not make sense and are counter-productive
  • This will force nullsec miners into mining racial ice at highsec income levels. The risk/reward balance is not balanced.
Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#3 - 2013-05-01 07:26:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Jita Bloodtear
Financial Impacts:

  • The highsec ice (racial ice) supply is going to be cut significantly leading to an increase in isotope and fuel block prices. This has already happened.
  • Ozone will become one of, if not the most valuable ice product. Nullsec miners will be forced into mining racial ice in order to force respawns of their ice anomalies so they can mine the valuable nullsec ices like Dark Glitter. With this added obstacle, and the mandatory 4hr respawn times on their ice field the galaxy supply of ozone will drop dramatically. Dark Glitter is a primary source of ozone in the galaxy, and its removal from lowsec and these combined factors will lead to a large spike in the value of ozone once the expansion hits. This is beginning to happen.
  • Low-end mineral prices will drop due to an increased supply. This is happening.
  • High-end mineral prices will rise slightly due to increased local manufacturing. This is happening.
  • Strontium should technically rise because it's mainly derived from Dark Glitter. But the demand for stront is so low that the effective price difference will be minimal
  • Morphite should not change
l0rd carlos
New Order Outreach Division
CODE.
#4 - 2013-05-01 09:43:49 UTC  |  Edited by: l0rd carlos
Why should the Rorqual get better in compression? Isn't the whole point of those changes that the minerals/ores/ice should be used localy rather then shipping _everything_ to jita?

Same with HS Ice belt, those are not there to **** of botters, the change is made so people in 0.0 start mining it more for their local demand.

Youtube Channel about Micro and Small scale PvP with commentary: Fleet Commentary by l0rd carlos

Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#5 - 2013-05-01 10:12:14 UTC
l0rd carlos wrote:
Why should the Rorqual get better in compression? Isn't the whole point of those changes that the minerals/ores/ice should be used localy rather then shipping _everything_ to jita?

Same with HS Ice belt, those are not there for **** of botters, the change is made so people in 0.0 start mining it more for their local demand.

While those sentiments are romantic in the eyes of CCP, the realities of the game do not support those ideals.


  • Highsec only contains racial ice, which contains 300 racial isotopes, 50 heavy water, 25 ozone, and 1 strontium. Heavy water is not used in much besides construction of fuel blocks for towers or rorqual siege cycles. The construction of these fuel blocks requires an equal amount of ozone to match the heavy water. Since the racial ice contains 2:1 HW:ozone this creates a large imbalance that demands the import of ozone from nullsec. Dark Glitter produces 1000 ozone and 500 HW per block, vs the 25 and 50 per block in highsec. In this way the nullsec ices are the only thing that provides enough ozone to highsec to function properly. Thus it's mandatory for nullsec ices to be shipped to highsec.

  • The only way to effectively ship the nullsec blocks to empire is via compression. Therefore the rorqual ice compression speed needs to be increased to enable this mandatory activity. If they want nullsec ice miners, this needs to happen.

  • Selling locally is also a nice idea, but utterly fails in practice. Nullsec ice fields only contain a single type of racial ice, yielding only a single type of faction isotope. This isotope could be sold locally, but fuel for the other 3 races still have to be imported by necessity. Thus, even at best you're still left importing 75% of your isotopes from highsec.

  • My point about the highsec ice belts was that the proposed changes are catering to the botting community more so, by making it impossible for real players to find the leftover scraps during their primetime thanks to the bots having cleared everything out. The bots are quite happy mining during all other hours after the players ragequit in frustration.

  • Local consumption of minerals is completely valid. My only gripes are with the ice changes right now.


For these reasons it's completely impossible to break the ties between highsec and nullsec. The changes to the game should understand and support these realities
Danni stark
#6 - 2013-05-01 10:20:34 UTC
l0rd carlos wrote:
Why should the Rorqual get better in compression? Isn't the whole point of those changes that the minerals/ores/ice should be used localy rather then shipping _everything_ to jita?


high sec cannot supply 100% of null sec's isotopes, let alone high sec on top of that. therefore ice isn't being jumped to jita, at all. it's being umped FROM jita, and it'll be refined and in jfs and totally irrelevant.
OP only wants increased compression speed on ice, which is perfectly reasonable.
Thorn Galen
Bene Gesserit ChapterHouse
Curatores Veritatis Alliance
#7 - 2013-05-01 11:16:53 UTC
@Jita Bloodtear

Excellent analysis and comments, thank you very much.

o7
Zifrian
The Pannion Domin
Ghostbirds
#8 - 2013-05-01 11:22:11 UTC
Null sec ice needs to be drastically increased. Everything will grind to a halt if we have to constantly run around to find ice products all day long. T2 stands to take a huge hit from this since moon mining requires a tower to do.

Compression times are far too long for ice. Anyone that's ever done it knows this and it's not really a point of argument.

Maximze your Industry Potential! - Download EVE Isk per Hour!

Import CCP's SDE - EVE SDE Database Builder

Karak Bol
Low-Sec Survival Ltd.
#9 - 2013-05-01 12:15:07 UTC
Well, the Rorqual can surely compress the leftover ice in the 4 h downtime, can´t it?
Peter Tjordenskiold
#10 - 2013-05-01 12:52:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Peter Tjordenskiold
l0rd carlos wrote:
Why should the Rorqual get better in compression? Isn't the whole point of those changes that the minerals/ores/ice should be used localy rather then shipping _everything_ to jita?

Same with HS Ice belt, those are not there to **** of botters, the change is made so people in 0.0 start mining it more for their local demand.


Read the forums and dont make silly assumptions
Peter Tjordenskiold
#11 - 2013-05-01 12:56:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Peter Tjordenskiold
Karak Bol wrote:
Well, the Rorqual can surely compress the leftover ice in the 4 h downtime, can´t it?


You have more than one system with ice in every region. ICE miners have to travel around to get the needed amounts. With todays rorqual it isnt possible to compresse the necessary amounts.
Wibla
Tactical Narcotics Team
#12 - 2013-05-01 13:41:10 UTC
How much ice will the nullsec ice belts contain, though?

Also mixing all the non-racial ice types in nullsec anoms will mean that people will just let the anoms wither on the vine until they respawn with the ice they want to mine.
ComDS
Eve Engineering Authority
Eve Engineering
#13 - 2013-05-01 14:39:07 UTC  |  Edited by: ComDS
Good job to the OP for a very thoughtful analysis.

The Ice changes cater to bots not hinder them. Making things harder on humans make it easier on bots.

The 4 hour downtime are insufferable by certain ice mining cultures. Casual mining is effectively dead with this release, but maybe that is the point?

Those of you that say "just travel" obviously have never played dodge ball.
Ekaterina 'Ghetto' Thurn
Department 10
#14 - 2013-05-01 14:48:22 UTC
Your analysis is a variant on the usual 'I want more yield' request as far as I can see. Regarding your comment that we should be looking to disconnect the economies in high & nul sec is daft when CCP is looking to link DUST and EVE together into an amazing web.

The prices of high sec obtainable minerals are currently falling and the price of ice products are increasing. These are both both correct statements but as your analysis states miners want to mine whatever makes the best ISK. Most miners mine to make ISK so nul sec miners will continue to target rocks heavy with Morphite, Megacyte, Zydrine, & Nocxium. The Spod will still be last on their list if mined at all. Once the changes come in on June 4th high sec miners will look to mine ice only as much as possible as the prices for ice products will have risen further by then. As a result of all of this the prices for high sec obtainable minerals will rise back up and maybe even go above the previous higher price levels.

" They're gonna feel pretty stupid when they find out. " Rick. " Find out what ? " Abraham. " They're screwing with the wrong people. " Rick. Season four.   ' The Walking Dead. ' .

ngaly
Doomheim
#15 - 2013-05-01 15:22:42 UTC  |  Edited by: ngaly
nvm
Moon Dogg
30plus
Goonswarm Federation
#16 - 2013-05-01 16:03:16 UTC
So basically we should expect the following for null-sec ice mining?
- Ice miner scans for ice anomaly
- Find anomaly in system x
- Grabs barge/exhumer and starts mining for 4 hours or less before it is exhausted
- Go fleet up for pvp, rat, exploration sites, P.I., etc instead, or log

That's easy to grasp/accept, I suppose. Now, If the ice anomaly ship/fleet isn't in your system you:
- Don't bother mining until an ice anomaly shows up in your system [or]
- Fly your ship(s) to the system with an ice anomaly
- If the number of jumps to reach system x is excessive, grab cyno and carriers to run fleet to system x
- Now jump Rorqual to system x, because you can't use gates to just run to the systems two jumps over [or]
- Use an Orca, slowboating it to the system or use a command ship/T3 booster instead, sacrificing bonuses for mobility

This would make ice mining much closer to what someone mining ore gravimetric sites in null would experience, correct?

Of course, if you choose to mine ore in null sec, you can eventually hope to get the Giant Spodumain Rock o' Doom, set up shop, and mine happily for a day or two before it pops :-P

Would it be bad to have ice fields merely deplete and respawn, like current asteroid belts do? And then perhaps offer ice sites that could be scanned out? Or be have ice be part of what can be generated through the industry upgrading that can be done to null systems?
Iosue
Black Sky Hipsters
#17 - 2013-05-01 16:12:13 UTC
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
l0rd carlos wrote:
Why should the Rorqual get better in compression? Isn't the whole point of those changes that the minerals/ores/ice should be used localy rather then shipping _everything_ to jita?

Same with HS Ice belt, those are not there for **** of botters, the change is made so people in 0.0 start mining it more for their local demand.

While those sentiments are romantic in the eyes of CCP, the realities of the game do not support those ideals.


  • Highsec only contains racial ice, which contains 300 racial isotopes, 50 heavy water, 25 ozone, and 1 strontium. Heavy water is not used in much besides construction of fuel blocks for towers or rorqual siege cycles. The construction of these fuel blocks requires an equal amount of ozone to match the heavy water. Since the racial ice contains 2:1 HW:ozone this creates a large imbalance that demands the import of ozone from nullsec. Dark Glitter produces 1000 ozone and 500 HW per block, vs the 25 and 50 per block in highsec. In this way the nullsec ices are the only thing that provides enough ozone to highsec to function properly. Thus it's mandatory for nullsec ices to be shipped to highsec.

  • The only way to effectively ship the nullsec blocks to empire is via compression. Therefore the rorqual ice compression speed needs to be increased to enable this mandatory activity. If they want nullsec ice miners, this needs to happen.

  • Selling locally is also a nice idea, but utterly fails in practice. Nullsec ice fields only contain a single type of racial ice, yielding only a single type of faction isotope. This isotope could be sold locally, but fuel for the other 3 races still have to be imported by necessity. Thus, even at best you're still left importing 75% of your isotopes from highsec.

  • My point about the highsec ice belts was that the proposed changes are catering to the botting community more so, by making it impossible for real players to find the leftover scraps during their primetime thanks to the bots having cleared everything out. The bots are quite happy mining during all other hours after the players ragequit in frustration.

  • Local consumption of minerals is completely valid. My only gripes are with the ice changes right now.


For these reasons it's completely impossible to break the ties between highsec and nullsec. The changes to the game should understand and support these realities


great analysis. i only have a couple of questions regarding your assumptions. can you elaborate on two factors that might mitigate the need for rorqual compression altogether? 1) the use of station refining in null and 2) the use of POS refining in null. I'm really interested in 2. since my understanding is that POSs can refine ice at 100% with the proper chars and equipment. thanks.
Xavier Thorm
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#18 - 2013-05-01 16:19:17 UTC
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
l0rd carlos wrote:
Why should the Rorqual get better in compression? Isn't the whole point of those changes that the minerals/ores/ice should be used localy rather then shipping _everything_ to jita?

Same with HS Ice belt, those are not there for **** of botters, the change is made so people in 0.0 start mining it more for their local demand.

While those sentiments are romantic in the eyes of CCP, the realities of the game do not support those ideals.


  • Highsec only contains racial ice, which contains 300 racial isotopes, 50 heavy water, 25 ozone, and 1 strontium. Heavy water is not used in much besides construction of fuel blocks for towers or rorqual siege cycles. The construction of these fuel blocks requires an equal amount of ozone to match the heavy water. Since the racial ice contains 2:1 HW:ozone this creates a large imbalance that demands the import of ozone from nullsec. Dark Glitter produces 1000 ozone and 500 HW per block, vs the 25 and 50 per block in highsec. In this way the nullsec ices are the only thing that provides enough ozone to highsec to function properly. Thus it's mandatory for nullsec ices to be shipped to highsec.

  • The only way to effectively ship the nullsec blocks to empire is via compression. Therefore the rorqual ice compression speed needs to be increased to enable this mandatory activity. If they want nullsec ice miners, this needs to happen.

  • Selling locally is also a nice idea, but utterly fails in practice. Nullsec ice fields only contain a single type of racial ice, yielding only a single type of faction isotope. This isotope could be sold locally, but fuel for the other 3 races still have to be imported by necessity. Thus, even at best you're still left importing 75% of your isotopes from highsec.

  • My point about the highsec ice belts was that the proposed changes are catering to the botting community more so, by making it impossible for real players to find the leftover scraps during their primetime thanks to the bots having cleared everything out. The bots are quite happy mining during all other hours after the players ragequit in frustration.

  • Local consumption of minerals is completely valid. My only gripes are with the ice changes right now.


For these reasons it's completely impossible to break the ties between highsec and nullsec. The changes to the game should understand and support these realities



Emphasis mine.

I really appreciate your posts regarding industry, as I'm not an industrial expert and I feel like I've learned a lot by reading your words. My gut response to the bolded segments, however, is this: Why does hisec have to "function properly"? It seems that what CCP is trying to do with these changes is to shake up the way that hisec and nullsec interact, so maybe a drastic change is just what they want.

I do agree that the removal of hisec ice belts is probably not going to help the botting situation at all, but maybe CCP has some trick up their sleeve that we don't know about yet.
Mara Pahrdi
The Order of Anoyia
#19 - 2013-05-01 16:43:25 UTC
Guess I'm lucky I shopped a 2 years supply of fuel blocks at this years low for my large tower. I'll mine some ice leisurely now and then to prolong this period and watch the show.

2 years for CCP to sort out the mess Lol.

Remove standings and insurance.

PotatoOverdose
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
#20 - 2013-05-01 16:58:59 UTC
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you assuming that there would only be one ice anom active at a time per system?

In null it is not uncommon to have multiple grav sites in a single system. In sov it is possible for an upgraded system to have many respawning anoms simultaneously.

Do we know that each system will have only one respawning ice anom? They could just as easily have two or three, no?
123Next pageLast page