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Nocxium: The Sleeping Giant
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Dirk Culliford
Zero G Universal Enterprises
#61 - 2012-03-29 06:43:37 UTC
Patri Andari wrote:
yawn

If only there were something I could buy ad nauseum from NPC markets that supplied this mineral.

Nocxium has a cap you mullets.




And as one, veteran MD players did despair and cry out 'you stupid idiot! Why did you have to go and tell them!'
Professor Clio
Apocalypse Lancers
#62 - 2012-03-29 06:46:03 UTC
Patri Andari wrote:
yawn

If only there were something I could buy ad nauseum from NPC markets that supplied this mineral.

Nocxium has a cap you mullets.



educate us, please
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#63 - 2012-03-29 12:24:57 UTC
Professor Clio wrote:
Patri Andari wrote:
yawn

If only there were something I could buy ad nauseum from NPC markets that supplied this mineral.

Nocxium has a cap you mullets.



educate us, please


Figure it out yourself.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Professor Clio
Apocalypse Lancers
#64 - 2012-03-29 14:59:04 UTC
But I'M LAZY
Hemmo Paskiainen
#65 - 2012-03-29 15:03:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Hemmo Paskiainen
buy morphite i tell you, as after the drone regions will be changed, only way of mining it will be in special ships in 0.0 or wh's

before drone regions introduction morphite was at 17k isk pu. And this is before loot table reprocess nerf and incursions.... and ave i mentioned that T2 mods are more populair and more expensive T2 mods / ships destroyed = ccp favourite isk sink?

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?
Wukulo
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#66 - 2012-03-29 15:44:17 UTC
Casius Omega wrote:
So with all the mineral price speculation and chances to make big isk i thought i would try and seek out your thoughts on nocxium. It seems people are starting to figure out this mineral is going to go UP UP UP and i agree with them.

Lets look where nocxium comes from.
Crokite | 0,0
Dark Ochre| 0,0
Hedbergite | 0,0 / low sec
Hemorphite | 0,0 / low sec
Jaspet | 0,0 / low sec
Pyroxeres | highsec 0,0 / low sec

As you can see the only way to get it in high sec is from Pyroxeres which needless to say isn't really mined by miners. Also the amount you get from pyro isn't a lot of nocxium at all. Not to mention you dont find many miners going after these kinds of rocks above except crokite of course but crokite is rare and only in 0,0. So where is all this nocxium coming from?? You guessed it Drone regions.

Where are minerals come from
|| Mineral || Ore% || Loot% || Drone Compounds% ||
||-----------||------||-------||------------------||
|| Tritanium || 46% || 43% || 11% ||
|| Pyerite || 29% || 60% || 10% ||
|| Mexallon || 30% || 59% || 11% ||
|| Isogen || 21% || 56% || 23% ||
|| Nocxium || 18% || 32% || 51% ||
|| Zydrine || 43% || 18% || 40% ||
|| Megacyte || 44% || 39% || 16% ||
|| Morphite || 77% || 1% || 22% ||

As you can see over 50% of nocxium came from drone regions. 40% of zydrine comes from drones and that mineral has already doubled and probably will triple in value. Im predicting this will happen to nocxium at the least it will double maybe triple.



TL:DR
Nocxium is going to go up a lot in the coming months


I'd LOVE to know where you pulled those numbers from.

Posted on main because I'm not a coward like the rest of you.
Irisa Selenia
Doomheim
#67 - 2012-03-29 16:40:51 UTC
Tornado's don't need nocxium, your argument is invalid.
Skye Aurorae
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#68 - 2012-03-29 17:02:09 UTC
In many situations the Talos and naga are technically superior suicide gang ships but most of the time an arty tornado is preferred since you only need one shot.

Skye Aurora is a 7 year old Girl Who Wants to be on the CSM! Unfortunately, the Lawyers say you have to be 21 - oh well.
Dirk Culliford
Zero G Universal Enterprises
#69 - 2012-03-29 17:45:29 UTC
Wukulo wrote:
Casius Omega wrote:
So with all the mineral price speculation and chances to make big isk i thought i would try and seek out your thoughts on nocxium. It seems people are starting to figure out this mineral is going to go UP UP UP and i agree with them.

Lets look where nocxium comes from.
Crokite | 0,0
Dark Ochre| 0,0
Hedbergite | 0,0 / low sec
Hemorphite | 0,0 / low sec
Jaspet | 0,0 / low sec
Pyroxeres | highsec 0,0 / low sec

As you can see the only way to get it in high sec is from Pyroxeres which needless to say isn't really mined by miners. Also the amount you get from pyro isn't a lot of nocxium at all. Not to mention you dont find many miners going after these kinds of rocks above except crokite of course but crokite is rare and only in 0,0. So where is all this nocxium coming from?? You guessed it Drone regions.

Where are minerals come from
|| Mineral || Ore% || Loot% || Drone Compounds% ||
||-----------||------||-------||------------------||
|| Tritanium || 46% || 43% || 11% ||
|| Pyerite || 29% || 60% || 10% ||
|| Mexallon || 30% || 59% || 11% ||
|| Isogen || 21% || 56% || 23% ||
|| Nocxium || 18% || 32% || 51% ||
|| Zydrine || 43% || 18% || 40% ||
|| Megacyte || 44% || 39% || 16% ||
|| Morphite || 77% || 1% || 22% ||

As you can see over 50% of nocxium came from drone regions. 40% of zydrine comes from drones and that mineral has already doubled and probably will triple in value. Im predicting this will happen to nocxium at the least it will double maybe triple.



TL:DR
Nocxium is going to go up a lot in the coming months


I'd LOVE to know where you pulled those numbers from.


Actually, they came from the devs in a qen. However, theyre a bit old (from before wormholes iirc)
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#70 - 2012-03-29 17:48:25 UTC
Irisa Selenia wrote:
Tornado's don't need nocxium, your argument is invalid.


This is so not relevant it's not even funny.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#71 - 2012-03-29 23:38:24 UTC
Last week:
Trit 4.58 Pye 5.31 Mex 54.96 Iso 73.74 Nocx 567 Zyd 1173 Mega 2733 Morph 4980

Today:
Trit 4.80 Pye 5.75 Mex 54.25 Iso 81.00 Nocx 595 Zyd 1750 Mega 3300 Morph 7500
Veld 144 Scor 128 Pyro 175 Plag 155 Omb 90 Kern 156 Jasp 186 Hemo 218 Hedb 217
DarkO 230 Croc 340 Bist 362 Ark 435

Estimates 1:
Trit 5.00 Pye 6.00 Mex 60.00 Iso: 90.00 Nocx: 750 Zyd: 2500 Mega: 4000
Veld 150 Scor 133 Pyro 200 Plag 169 Omb 100 Kern 173 Jasp 229 Hemo 277 Hedb 274
DarkO 313 Croc 477 Bist 479 Ark 546

Estimates 2:
Trit 5 Pye 6 Mex 65 Iso 100 Nocx 900 Zyd 2800 Mega 4500 Morph 7500
Veld 150 Scor 133 Pyro 223 Plag 180 Omb 110 Kern 189 Jasp 271 Hemo 327 Hedb 320
DarkO 360 Croc 539 Bist 538 Ark 614

That's about the upper limit I think for the ABCs. At those price points, there will be mining a-plenty.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#72 - 2012-03-30 02:23:13 UTC
I can't remember if you've explained your numbers elsewhere or not. Care to?

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#73 - 2012-03-30 03:08:50 UTC
corestwo wrote:
I can't remember if you've explained your numbers elsewhere or not. Care to?


Mine approach it from the point of view that if certain ores get too pricey, the miners will flock to them driving up supply and driving down prices. Assuming that a solo hulk can pull in 90-95k m3 of ore per hour, and that once a solo hulk's income gets above 20-25M ISK/hr in hi-sec, the market reacts. Because it's not hard to dual or triple-box solo hulks and start pulling in 60-70M ISK/hr when hi-sec ore gets above 200 ISK/m3.

(Keeping in mind that hi-sec orca can boost yields by 40-65% per hour if a small fleet is setup. I used to run 3 hulks + orca and figured that I was topping out at around 350-360k m3/hr of raw ore.)

For null sec, a solo hulk that pulls in 50-60M ISK/hr starts to look very attractive (more so once you toss Rorqual boosts into the mix) - which is around 600 ISK/m3. So once again, I'm not sure that ores can get above 600 ISK/m3 and stay there for very long before the market balances back out.

I really don't expect hi-sec ores to stay above 150 ISK/m3 past mid-June / mid-July. Maybe they will if CCP keeps the botters at bay.
Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
#74 - 2012-03-30 19:24:11 UTC
I really like your numbers Bob, quite realistic prospects.

Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524
Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
#75 - 2012-04-01 12:37:16 UTC
The giant AWAKES!
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#76 - 2012-04-01 15:48:31 UTC  |  Edited by: corestwo
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
corestwo wrote:
I can't remember if you've explained your numbers elsewhere or not. Care to?


Mine approach it from the point of view that if certain ores get too pricey, the miners will flock to them driving up supply and driving down prices. Assuming that a solo hulk can pull in 90-95k m3 of ore per hour, and that once a solo hulk's income gets above 20-25M ISK/hr in hi-sec, the market reacts. Because it's not hard to dual or triple-box solo hulks and start pulling in 60-70M ISK/hr when hi-sec ore gets above 200 ISK/m3.

(Keeping in mind that hi-sec orca can boost yields by 40-65% per hour if a small fleet is setup. I used to run 3 hulks + orca and figured that I was topping out at around 350-360k m3/hr of raw ore.)

For null sec, a solo hulk that pulls in 50-60M ISK/hr starts to look very attractive (more so once you toss Rorqual boosts into the mix) - which is around 600 ISK/m3. So once again, I'm not sure that ores can get above 600 ISK/m3 and stay there for very long before the market balances back out.

I really don't expect hi-sec ores to stay above 150 ISK/m3 past mid-June / mid-July. Maybe they will if CCP keeps the botters at bay.


So, here is why I think you are wrong.



Lowsec is a player desert. There are very, very few people there, basically because the risk:reward is crap given hisec incursions, hisec missions, and all that other stuff. To make the risk worthwhile, the reward has to rise, and frankly, at your prices, it just isn't.

With your top-end case, lowsec ores are pretty much identical to highsec ores. Maybe a little better, but not enough to get people to venture out. They're in the 24-25m/hr range for Hedbergite and Hemorphite, 20-21m for Jaspet, assuming a hulk with average skills & T1 strip miners.

Now on the other hand, if we keep your prices the same but inflate Nocxium in a way that is out of proportion for your model, interesting things happen. At 1500/unit, say, suddenly hedbergite is worth about 35m/hr, hemorphite 38m/hr, and jaspet 33m/hr. Additionally, Dark Ochre gets up to about 35m/hr, so people in 0.0 might actually notice it, and crokite actually passes Arkonor and Bistot, exceeding 45m/hr, guaranteeing that it gets mined first.

At 1700/unit the nocx-bearing lowsec ores actually approach 0.0 ores.


So that's my bet. I'd put nocx at 1200/unit on the low end, with 1700/unit as my top end call.


e: It was pointed out that I'd overlooked pyroxeres. It's a non-issue. My top end makes it quite attractive (24m/hr) to highsec miners, but the actual output per refine is low - 11 units - and the asteroids are always small and get cleared quickly. I do not consider it to be a significant contributor.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
cuoredipietra famedoro
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#77 - 2012-04-01 16:39:00 UTC
corestwo wrote:

So that's my bet. I'd put nocx at 1200/unit on the low end, with 1700/unit as my top end call.


Interesting... however you should keep in mind there is a lot of speculation and volatility.
It is not impossible that the price goes above your price braket to fall back in when the speculation subsides.

Also interesting to not that actually nox is @750isk/u in Jita, and was somewhere 600isk/u a week ago. Nice jump in price, but not that dramatic.

Caeci caecos ducentes 
Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
#78 - 2012-04-01 16:50:20 UTC
cuoredipietra famedoro wrote:
corestwo wrote:

So that's my bet. I'd put nocx at 1200/unit on the low end, with 1700/unit as my top end call.


Interesting... however you should keep in mind there is a lot of speculation and volatility.
It is not impossible that the price goes above your price braket to fall back in when the speculation subsides.

Also interesting to not that actually nox is @750isk/u in Jita, and was somewhere 600isk/u a week ago. Nice jump in price, but not that dramatic.


A week ago, nocx had a price cap, so it couldnt really go up, not for long. (hell I only learned this a day or two ago). That cap is removed since this downtime, so price will go up. There's no unlimited npc supply anymore.

Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#79 - 2012-04-01 16:50:53 UTC
cuoredipietra famedoro wrote:
corestwo wrote:

So that's my bet. I'd put nocx at 1200/unit on the low end, with 1700/unit as my top end call.


Interesting... however you should keep in mind there is a lot of speculation and volatility.
It is not impossible that the price goes above your price braket to fall back in when the speculation subsides.

Also interesting to not that actually nox is @750isk/u in Jita, and was somewhere 600isk/u a week ago. Nice jump in price, but not that dramatic.

More like 800/unit now.

Keep in mind that my call there is a longer term call and is dependent on them removing drone alloys come the 24th. Speculation and volatility may well take it to or beyond my prediction before then, but I wouldn't count on it staying until after drone nerfs.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#80 - 2012-04-01 17:34:39 UTC
I completely missed WHY nocx is going up. What happened with supply?