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Nocxium: The Sleeping Giant

Author
Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
#81 - 2012-04-01 17:41:12 UTC
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I completely missed WHY nocx is going up. What happened with supply?


CCP removed npc sold item that reprocessed into nocx. That item allowed for an unlimited supply of nocx putting the nocx price at a cap of around 530. (if price = higher, it's profitable to buy the npc good and reprocess to sell on market)

Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524

Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#82 - 2012-04-01 17:57:12 UTC
Riley Moore wrote:
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I completely missed WHY nocx is going up. What happened with supply?


CCP removed npc sold item that reprocessed into nocx. That item allowed for an unlimited supply of nocx putting the nocx price at a cap of around 530. (if price = higher, it's profitable to buy the npc good and reprocess to sell on market)

Ah, another artificial price cap removed, huzzah! \o/

Thank you for your information good sir :)
Tanya Powers
Doomheim
#83 - 2012-04-02 07:19:54 UTC
SgtGoodEnd wrote:
Riley Moore wrote:
Hands up if you have Nocxium stockpiles



o/




\o/



o/
Danari
Syncore
#84 - 2012-04-02 10:01:22 UTC
Riley Moore wrote:
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I completely missed WHY nocx is going up. What happened with supply?


CCP removed npc sold item that reprocessed into nocx. That item allowed for an unlimited supply of nocx putting the nocx price at a cap of around 530. (if price = higher, it's profitable to buy the npc good and reprocess to sell on market)


Since the cap has been removed, would anyone tell us who are lazy what the item was?
Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
#85 - 2012-04-02 10:31:09 UTC
Danari wrote:
Riley Moore wrote:
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I completely missed WHY nocx is going up. What happened with supply?


CCP removed npc sold item that reprocessed into nocx. That item allowed for an unlimited supply of nocx putting the nocx price at a cap of around 530. (if price = higher, it's profitable to buy the npc good and reprocess to sell on market)


Since the cap has been removed, would anyone tell us who are lazy what the item was?



Pax Amarria

Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524

Raven Ether
Doomheim
#86 - 2012-04-02 11:24:17 UTC
it's going up , buy the cheap orders NOW!!
Scott Ryder
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#87 - 2012-04-02 11:30:41 UTC
Tanya Powers wrote:
SgtGoodEnd wrote:
Riley Moore wrote:
Hands up if you have Nocxium stockpiles



o/




\o/



o/



\o (but sadly way to little)
Nirnias Stirrum
UberWTFBBQ and Battle Technologies
#88 - 2012-04-02 12:05:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Nirnias Stirrum
Scott Ryder wrote:
Tanya Powers wrote:
SgtGoodEnd wrote:
Riley Moore wrote:
Hands up if you have Nocxium stockpiles



o/




\o/



o/



\o (but sadly way to little)


0/ (i have a bigger head)
Raven Ether
Doomheim
#89 - 2012-04-02 19:05:04 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
corestwo wrote:
I can't remember if you've explained your numbers elsewhere or not. Care to?


Mine approach it from the point of view that if certain ores get too pricey, the miners will flock to them driving up supply and driving down prices. Assuming that a solo hulk can pull in 90-95k m3 of ore per hour, and that once a solo hulk's income gets above 20-25M ISK/hr in hi-sec, the market reacts. Because it's not hard to dual or triple-box solo hulks and start pulling in 60-70M ISK/hr when hi-sec ore gets above 200 ISK/m3.

(Keeping in mind that hi-sec orca can boost yields by 40-65% per hour if a small fleet is setup. I used to run 3 hulks + orca and figured that I was topping out at around 350-360k m3/hr of raw ore.)

For null sec, a solo hulk that pulls in 50-60M ISK/hr starts to look very attractive (more so once you toss Rorqual boosts into the mix) - which is around 600 ISK/m3. So once again, I'm not sure that ores can get above 600 ISK/m3 and stay there for very long before the market balances back out.

I really don't expect hi-sec ores to stay above 150 ISK/m3 past mid-June / mid-July. Maybe they will if CCP keeps the botters at bay.


So, here is why I think you are wrong.



Lowsec is a player desert. There are very, very few people there, basically because the risk:reward is crap given hisec incursions, hisec missions, and all that other stuff. To make the risk worthwhile, the reward has to rise, and frankly, at your prices, it just isn't.

With your top-end case, lowsec ores are pretty much identical to highsec ores. Maybe a little better, but not enough to get people to venture out. They're in the 24-25m/hr range for Hedbergite and Hemorphite, 20-21m for Jaspet, assuming a hulk with average skills & T1 strip miners.

Now on the other hand, if we keep your prices the same but inflate Nocxium in a way that is out of proportion for your model, interesting things happen. At 1500/unit, say, suddenly hedbergite is worth about 35m/hr, hemorphite 38m/hr, and jaspet 33m/hr. Additionally, Dark Ochre gets up to about 35m/hr, so people in 0.0 might actually notice it, and crokite actually passes Arkonor and Bistot, exceeding 45m/hr, guaranteeing that it gets mined first.

At 1700/unit the nocx-bearing lowsec ores actually approach 0.0 ores.


So that's my bet. I'd put nocx at 1200/unit on the low end, with 1700/unit as my top end call.


e: It was pointed out that I'd overlooked pyroxeres. It's a non-issue. My top end makes it quite attractive (24m/hr) to highsec miners, but the actual output per refine is low - 11 units - and the asteroids are always small and get cleared quickly. I do not consider it to be a significant contributor.



I'm sitting on millions of nocxium, posts like these make me tingly.

I think I'll buy more nocxium now that it is still cheap.
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#90 - 2012-04-03 15:39:49 UTC
http://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/rnxrv/ccp_removes_pax_amarria_npc_orders_nocxium_prices/

Reddit post about how they removed the npcs item.

WOWO go go nocxium!
Mantra Achura
Stammtisch
#91 - 2012-04-03 20:08:17 UTC
Patch notes for EVE Online: Crucible 1.6.3

Released on Tuesday, April 3, 2012.
Fixes

[...]

World Shaping

Pax Amarria is back in print, now using an optimized production process.
Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
#92 - 2012-04-03 20:50:31 UTC
Mantra Achura wrote:
Patch notes for EVE Online: Crucible 1.6.3

Released on Tuesday, April 3, 2012.
Fixes

[...]

World Shaping

Pax Amarria is back in print, now using an optimized production process.



It refines into 3 trit a unit putting a hardcap of 1109.33 isk per trit not including sales tax and broker fees. I think it's safe to say, it's a non issue.

Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524

lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
#93 - 2012-04-05 06:59:52 UTC
I am not the one who actively manipulated the nocx market. However, check the price now! Big smile
Raven Ether
Doomheim
#94 - 2012-04-05 10:14:53 UTC
http://community.eveonline.com/en/inferno/features/

Looks like the price will get even higher, MORE than expected.

No more alloys
More mineral demand from newly announced removal of T1 meta 0 from drops
WuMaTih
SovNarKom.
Legion of xXDEATHXx
#95 - 2012-04-05 13:43:30 UTC
damn **** spiked
Taedrin
Virtues Corporation
#96 - 2012-04-05 13:47:09 UTC
It should be noted that low sec ores are the best supply of nocx - which is also where the least amount of mining is done. It might be interesting if nocx prices rise enough to make low sec mining lucrative enough to offset the risk.
Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#97 - 2012-04-05 14:46:48 UTC
And the winner is........

The first one that dumps.

Oo

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#98 - 2012-04-05 15:24:45 UTC
Taedrin wrote:
It should be noted that low sec ores are the best supply of nocx - which is also where the least amount of mining is done. It might be interesting if nocx prices rise enough to make low sec mining lucrative enough to offset the risk.

This is part of the reason for my argument for 1200-1700/unit. Get up in that range and (provided my math is correct) a max skills max yield hulk with bonuses can get 60m/hr or more mining jaspet, hemorphite or hedbergite. That might just be enough to get some people to come out of their safe little highsec shell.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
#99 - 2012-04-05 15:51:54 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Taedrin wrote:
It should be noted that low sec ores are the best supply of nocx - which is also where the least amount of mining is done. It might be interesting if nocx prices rise enough to make low sec mining lucrative enough to offset the risk.

This is part of the reason for my argument for 1200-1700/unit. Get up in that range and (provided my math is correct) a max skills max yield hulk with bonuses can get 60m/hr or more mining jaspet, hemorphite or hedbergite. That might just be enough to get some people to come out of their safe little highsec shell.


... where goons are waiting for you in cheap pvp ships. Big smile
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#100 - 2012-04-05 15:55:01 UTC
Lowsec is beneath us.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo