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Can we get rid of CSM after the recent PLEX insider trading fiasco?

First post
Author
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#221 - 2017-03-23 16:38:20 UTC
KaarBaak wrote:


You missed a very important group. Some might say the KEY group: People selling ISK/PLEX for RL money. aka RMTers.

It's not like that has ever been a problem before, right? And certainly not involving the CSM. Roll


Oh, so you are butt hurt because of players deliberately violating the EULA....that a price increase in PLEX makes that slightly more appealing. Roll

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Girka Kring
Doomheim
#222 - 2017-03-29 14:09:43 UTC
Just a reminder for all those believing that it was a normal market fluctuation:

PLEX price is currently at 1,219 bil ISK and still rising every day, every hour...
Pretty weird given that all the AUR will be converted into PLEX in the future.
Guess all the involved ppl are cashing out right now.

Please tell me again how it wasn't an intentional manipulation.
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#223 - 2017-03-29 14:11:41 UTC
Girka Kring wrote:
Just a reminder for all those believing that it was a normal market fluctuation:

PLEX price is currently at 1,219 bil ISK and still rising every day, every hour...
Pretty weird given that all the AUR will be converted into PLEX in the future.
Guess all the involved ppl are cashing out right now.

Please tell me again how it wasn't an intentional manipulation.



Uh, you know that cashing out involves increasing the supply, right? Which leads to a drop in prices.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

Nicolai Serkanner
Incredible.
Brave Collective
#224 - 2017-03-29 15:13:50 UTC
Girka Kring wrote:

Pretty weird given that all the AUR will be converted into PLEX in the future.
Guess all the involved ppl are cashing out right now.



Shocked ... hahaha
Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
#225 - 2017-03-29 20:11:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Zarek Kree
What you have is an economic conspiracy theory that isn't rooted in any kind of actual economic theory (except for possibly some weird behavioral economics). Had there been a massive sell-off, you might have convinced me, but massive BUYING? Yeah, no.

Somebody please connect the dots and explain to me how insider trading led to an INCREASE in plex prices when all indications point to MORE plex entering the market based on this decision, because the economic logic escapes me.
Salvos Rhoska
#226 - 2017-03-29 20:23:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Zarek Kree wrote:
Somebody please connect the dots and explain to me how insider trading led to an INCREASE in plex prices when all indications point to MORE plex entering the market based on this decision, because the economic logic escapes me.


Pending division of PLEX into 500 units, its a good time to buy them up now, before the change.

Afterwards its far more flexible to trade PLEX as x/500 units, rather than in 500 unit blocks as equivalent to now.

So instead of -0.1isk game on PLEX, you can game -0.1isk on x/500 individual units of PLEX.
xXdongbenderXx
Doomheim
#227 - 2017-03-29 20:29:53 UTC
Is now a good time to buy plex in its current form i'm looking to sell to the market in order to get started....
Salvos Rhoska
#228 - 2017-03-29 20:31:20 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
xXdongbenderXx wrote:
Is now a good time to buy plex in its current form i'm looking to sell to the market in order to get started....


With isk? Buy now as fast as you can.
With cash, wait.

Its only going to go up.

I estimate 1.5-1.8 by the autumn.
Maybe even 2bil.
Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
#229 - 2017-03-29 20:47:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Zarek Kree
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Zarek Kree wrote:
Somebody please connect the dots and explain to me how insider trading led to an INCREASE in plex prices when all indications point to MORE plex entering the market based on this decision, because the economic logic escapes me.


Pending division of PLEX into 500 units, its a good time to buy them up now, before the change.

Afterwards its far easier to trade PLEX as x/500 units, rather than in 500 unit blocks as equivalent to now.


What? What you're describing makes absolutely no economic sense because 1 PLEX today will be exactly the same as those 500 PLEX following the change. In fact, it will be worth LESS because of the additional PLEX getting dumped into the market from the aurum conversions.

This is exactly like a stock split and economic advisers and investment bankers will tell you that it makes no difference whether you buy before or after a split. Now if CCP was allowing shorter subscriptions or training time buys, then those smaller chunks might see higher demand - but they're not, so demand should be fairly constant. Only the trade volumes change - not the stock value.

However, I mentioned behavioral economics as a possible explanation because it describes non-rational economic decision-making. Your theory isn't true in any kind of classical economic sense, but the fact that you THINK it's true can drive you to buy PLEX despite that being completely irrational.

But still, the smart money dumps it - and insider trading is always built around smart money plays. So if anybody DID have advance notice of the announcement, they got burned because they dumped their ISK. They certainly didn't buy more of it.
Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
#230 - 2017-03-29 20:50:17 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
xXdongbenderXx wrote:
Is now a good time to buy plex in its current form i'm looking to sell to the market in order to get started....


With isk? Buy now as fast as you can.
With cash, wait.

Its only going to go up.

I estimate 1.5-1.8 by the autumn.
Maybe even 2bil.


Please tell me you're trolling. Given some of the ridiculous things said in this thread so far, it's really hard to tell.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#231 - 2017-03-30 00:31:29 UTC
Zarek Kree wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Zarek Kree wrote:
Somebody please connect the dots and explain to me how insider trading led to an INCREASE in plex prices when all indications point to MORE plex entering the market based on this decision, because the economic logic escapes me.


Pending division of PLEX into 500 units, its a good time to buy them up now, before the change.

Afterwards its far easier to trade PLEX as x/500 units, rather than in 500 unit blocks as equivalent to now.


What? What you're describing makes absolutely no economic sense because 1 PLEX today will be exactly the same as those 500 PLEX following the change. In fact, it will be worth LESS because of the additional PLEX getting dumped into the market from the aurum conversions.

This is exactly like a stock split and economic advisers and investment bankers will tell you that it makes no difference whether you buy before or after a split. Now if CCP was allowing shorter subscriptions or training time buys, then those smaller chunks might see higher demand - but they're not, so demand should be fairly constant. Only the trade volumes change - not the stock value.

However, I mentioned behavioral economics as a possible explanation because it describes non-rational economic decision-making. Your theory isn't true in any kind of classical economic sense, but the fact that you THINK it's true can drive you to buy PLEX despite that being completely irrational.

But still, the smart money dumps it - and insider trading is always built around smart money plays. So if anybody DID have advance notice of the announcement, they got burned because they dumped their ISK. They certainly didn't buy more of it.


The train of thought might be as follows:

Because they are dumping Aurum as a form of currency and allowing PLEX to be sub-divided and for these sub-divided PLEX to take the place of Aurum there will be increase demand for the new sub-divided PLEX.

You are also correct that since Aurum balances will be converted over to PLEX it will increase the supply of PLEX as well.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Frostys Virpio
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#232 - 2017-03-30 13:19:58 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
xXdongbenderXx wrote:
Is now a good time to buy plex in its current form i'm looking to sell to the market in order to get started....


With isk? Buy now as fast as you can.
With cash, wait.

Its only going to go up.

I estimate 1.5-1.8 by the autumn.
Maybe even 2bil.


Why would you wait to buy with cash? There is no need to wait. Just don't offload them on the market until you think the rise is over...
Salvos Rhoska
#233 - 2017-03-30 13:27:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
xXdongbenderXx wrote:
Is now a good time to buy plex in its current form i'm looking to sell to the market in order to get started....


With isk? Buy now as fast as you can.
With cash, wait.

Its only going to go up.

I estimate 1.5-1.8 by the autumn.
Maybe even 2bil.


Why would you wait to buy with cash? There is no need to wait. Just don't offload them on the market until you think the rise is over...


Pffft...

PLEX cash price isnt going to change.
No point in tying up your liquidity in a games virtual asset until you intend to sell them.

PLEX sitting in your soon to be vault earns/gains you nothing till you sell it, and then too only as space currency.

Go out and have a nice dinner, buy your mother a gift, buy cheap stock with your spare cash.
Whether you buy PLEX with cash today, last year, or next year, is arbitrary.
Nicola Romanoff
Lucifer's Hammer
A Band Apart.
#234 - 2017-03-30 14:35:10 UTC
I thought they altered that and were now going to wait several months after the 1000+ aur balances are converted to then convert the ones below 1000 to whatever they would be under the new microplex, somno one will be getting any aur wiped out.
Salvos Rhoska
#235 - 2017-03-30 14:39:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Nicola Romanoff wrote:
I thought they altered that and were now going to wait several months after the 1000+ aur balances are converted to then convert the ones below 1000 to whatever they would be under the new microplex, somno one will be getting any aur wiped out.


If you have less than 1000 AUR, you will lose it all.
No PLEX conversion. No AUR conversion, beyond or after.

If you have less than 1000 AUR, it will be deleted.
Period.
Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
#236 - 2017-03-30 14:46:11 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Because they are dumping Aurum as a form of currency and allowing PLEX to be sub-divided and for these sub-divided PLEX to take the place of Aurum there will be increase demand for the new sub-divided PLEX.


That's a legit point. The demand for Aurum will be shifted to PLEX, which will put some upward pressure on the price over the long term. However, I'd argue that such pressure will be entirely offset by the introduction of the PLEX Vault which should almost entirely eliminate PLEX losses through ganking because it eliminates the need to manually move PLEX in-game. So the supply is also increased over the long term because PLEX will no longer be getting blown up and wasted.
Salvos Rhoska
#237 - 2017-03-30 14:49:39 UTC
Zarek Kree wrote:
However, I'd argue that such pressure will be entirely offset by the introduction of the PLEX Vault which should almost entirely eliminate PLEX losses through ganking because it eliminates the need to manually move PLEX in-game.


There is no need, whatsoever, to manually move PLEX in-game.
Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
#238 - 2017-03-30 15:11:03 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Zarek Kree wrote:
However, I'd argue that such pressure will be entirely offset by the introduction of the PLEX Vault which should almost entirely eliminate PLEX losses through ganking because it eliminates the need to manually move PLEX in-game.


There is no need, whatsoever, to manually move PLEX in-game.


That's not entirely true. There's no need to move it If people are buying and selling it for their personal use. But if you're buying and selling it speculatively, then you have to manually move it from low value stations to high value stations. It's no different than any other commodity in that regard. PLEX traders have no choice but to load it onto a ship and move it. That's why people do it and why it's so frequently blown up in space.

But, the PLEX Vault will eliminate that because all PLEX will reside there and will be accessible from any station. So even high volume speculative PLEX traders will be able to take it from one market to another without risk. Then there TRULY won't be any reason whatsoever to manually move PLEX in-game.

PLEX currently gets blown up everyday, thus reducing the supply and putting upward pressure on the price. The PLEX Vault reverses that pressure.
Nicolai Serkanner
Incredible.
Brave Collective
#239 - 2017-03-30 17:15:13 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Frostys Virpio wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
xXdongbenderXx wrote:
Is now a good time to buy plex in its current form i'm looking to sell to the market in order to get started....


With isk? Buy now as fast as you can.
With cash, wait.

Its only going to go up.

I estimate 1.5-1.8 by the autumn.
Maybe even 2bil.


Why would you wait to buy with cash? There is no need to wait. Just don't offload them on the market until you think the rise is over...


Pffft...

PLEX cash price isnt going to change.
No point in tying up your liquidity in a games virtual asset until you intend to sell them.

PLEX sitting in your soon to be vault earns/gains you nothing till you sell it, and then too only as space currency.

Go out and have a nice dinner, buy your mother a gift, buy cheap stock with your spare cash.
Whether you buy PLEX with cash today, last year, or next year, is arbitrary.


It just did... there is a discount the next few days.
Cade Windstalker
#240 - 2017-03-30 17:28:04 UTC
Girka Kring wrote:
Just a reminder for all those believing that it was a normal market fluctuation:

PLEX price is currently at 1,219 bil ISK and still rising every day, every hour...
Pretty weird given that all the AUR will be converted into PLEX in the future.
Guess all the involved ppl are cashing out right now.

Please tell me again how it wasn't an intentional manipulation.


OP this makes literally zero sense in addition to being factually inaccurate... PLEX has been going up and down since the patch landed, and it *still* isn't back up to Pre-Citadel levels.

Oh, and people "cashing out" tends to drop the price of something, and is not generally associated with a rise in the price of an item, it's generally done when the price has peaked or is dropping. There is literally zero evidence of *anyone* "cashing out" here. If anything volume is slightly down this week, not up.

What are you even on about???