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Decline in numbers... starting to turn into RAPID!!!

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Bob Maths
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#461 - 2015-08-30 13:09:38 UTC
This might be due to age and what people are doing in real life, as the number of people grow older (and this has a linear progression) then they start falling into slots where they would have less time to play the game and thus demonstrably a lower player count would be shown. People get promotions, change jobs or lifestyle and subsequently change priorities.

On a per day basis it seems to be fairly consistent but a 30k difference over two years - what could that indicate? It could be the amount of real players have increased and the amount of boxers have progressively decreased.
Zozoll Neblyn
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#462 - 2015-08-30 13:56:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Zozoll Neblyn
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:


Enjoying a long tenure in EVE should not be a precious reward for the little 20% who meet the right players, get the right advices/ 3rd party resources/infomation/experiences and do the right things.





If I'm honest with myself, the fact I did meet up with a good alliance, by pure chance, is exactly what kept me in the game. Even though I'm not in it anymore.

I got to be a brand new noob operating in deep null sec, listening to veterans on Vox all day as I did any number of different things in null and high sec. And free to ask any question I needed an answer to.

Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Whitehound wrote:
It does not need a degree in psychology to understand that players set themselves limits on how much ISKs they want to spend on a PLEX. So when the price for a PLEX reached the 1b ISKs mark did this signal to many players to stop buying PLEX.


It also doesnt need an economics degree, to understand that if isk PLEX buyers left the game, that supply and demand would dictate a reduction in PLEX price, as a factor of reduced demand, rather than an increase as now.

For the second time now, you dont seem to grasp this.

If, as you state, there are less accounts ingame buying PLEX for isk, then demand drops, and so does the price (as controlled statistically against the fact that these players did not buy PLEX into the game, but rather bought it ingame with isk).

This didnt happen, which means the core reasons for PLEX price increase are somewhere else, than in isk PLEXing accounts leaving.


It's possible that this is their profit strategy, because hosting more players costs them more money, so if they can make the same amount of money hosting less people at once, that's good for them.

On the other hand, its also possible that the price of PLEX is being manipulated. They could be putting up NPC buy orders in Jita or something like that, to keep the PLEX price high. (However if they did that, it would probably lead to inflation in the rest of the market, which I'm not seeing happen.)
Sarayu Wyvern
The Bosena Accords
Round Table Assembly
#463 - 2015-08-30 14:27:27 UTC
Mir Jana wrote:
I was wondering about something...

January 2014 - average was 41k online
June 2014 - average was 32k online
December 2014 - average was 27k online
May 2015 - average was 21k online
August 2015 - average is 16k online

today I logged in at 14793 online.....

What can CCP do to re-build its populace cause obviously something is rotten in the state of Iceland...?

I'll repeat that last year you were still permitted to use ISBoxer and other such applications.

Now that you can't you're seeing only as many characters as each player can control one at a time.

People who play EVE tend to have a LOT of alts. Removing most of those from the picture as far as PCU counts makes a big difference.

Alt of MidnightWyvern. (Mobius Wyvern in Dust 514)
xxxTRUSTxxx
Galactic Rangers
#464 - 2015-08-30 14:31:00 UTC
Zozoll Neblyn wrote:


On the other hand, its also possible that the price of PLEX is being manipulated. They could be putting up NPC buy orders in Jita or something like that, to keep the PLEX price high. (However if they did that, it would probably lead to inflation in the rest of the market, which I'm not seeing happen.)


if it's being manipulated it's by players. people would have noticed an NPC buying from them by now. with no proof what you say means nothing and is nothing but speculation.

you are right though about retention and hanging with the right people. it's all about finding people who make you feel like playing more.
EVE is a team player game, we all know this, even solo players seek solo players for tips and intel Blink but will always find it that bit harder than others because EVE is all about being a team player. ( i support all styles of play)
so get with the wrong team and you won't stick with them or worse the game itself. doesn't matter what size the group is,, just a group of ding dongs lead by a ding dong is all it takes lol.

but like i always say, some will love EVE, some will hate it, some will be meh i'll play now and then. no different than any other game. I guess these EVE is dieing or in decline or is infact dead! threads are more about people wanting to be the one that made the call,, they where right kinda thing. it's a bit of a weird interest to have really, watching CCP's performance more than they put effort into the game, i don't get it?

if these people are so concerned with how many people are logged in,, why are they not?
also with the loss of interest in the game why would they care if less people are logged in?
i've played many games over the years and when i got bored of them and stopped playing,, they became good memories for the most part and where filed under goodtimes and pushed to the very back of my mind.
i didn't check their forums anymore, nor did i check how many people where playing daily.

seems to me like a lot of people who aren't playing, still subbed to train skills that tend to be on the forums because they can be, no interest in playing the game in it's current state because they don't like it at the moment and say they will play when it's the way they want, but still hop on here full of opinions on how it should be played even thought currently they are not playing. i might be wrong,, just a guess.Roll

defo an EVE thing. Roll
Salvos Rhoska
#465 - 2015-08-30 15:51:50 UTC
Zozoll Neblyn wrote:

It's possible that this is their profit strategy, because hosting more players costs them more money, so if they can make the same amount of money hosting less people at once, that's good for them.

On the other hand, its also possible that the price of PLEX is being manipulated. They could be putting up NPC buy orders in Jita or something like that, to keep the PLEX price high. (However if they did that, it would probably lead to inflation in the rest of the market, which I'm not seeing happen.)


Possible, but unlikely.
CCPs intervention in PLEX is only through two avenues:
-Sporadic PLEX cheaper sale on their site
-Reintroducing confiscated PLEX in to the market, at nominal value, because it belongs in the game, and CCPare bros.

I refuse to believe CCP would screw us like that, and CCP alone among many other developers.

Having said that, I do hope CCP receives more subs now.

But that is offset by the concrete fact, that PLEX costs more than a sub, even on special offer.
Meaning CCP is probably losing money now that apprently PLEX purchases are down, even if subs are up.
PLEX purchases are more lucrarive than subs, and now that they are apparently down (as indicated by reduced supply towards higher isk cost ingame), it doesnt look any better for CCP than it does for player activity on one or all/training accounts.

PvE v PvP <> Old School Exploration <> CODE Licenses <> CODE Special Agent
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#466 - 2015-08-30 16:05:22 UTC
Zozoll Neblyn wrote:
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:


Enjoying a long tenure in EVE should not be a precious reward for the little 20% who meet the right players, get the right advices/ 3rd party resources/infomation/experiences and do the right things.



If I'm honest with myself, the fact I did meet up with a good alliance, by pure chance, is exactly what kept me in the game. Even though I'm not in it anymore.

I got to be a brand new noob operating in deep null sec, listening to veterans on Vox all day as I did any number of different things in null and high sec. And free to ask any question I needed an answer to.

(...)


And of course you were inclined to null and PvP before meeting that people. Which is also a random thing.

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you
ISD Decoy
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#467 - 2015-08-30 17:07:12 UTC  |  Edited by: ISD Decoy
I have removed a couple off-topic/troll posts and those quoting them. Please stay on topic and keep personal altercations in EVE mail for the general user's sake.

Quote:
5. Trolling is prohibited.

Trolling is a defined as a post that is deliberately designed for the purpose of angering and insulting other players in an attempt to incite retaliation or an emotional response. Posts of this nature are disruptive, often abusive, and do not contribute to the sense of community that CCP promote.

27. Off-topic posting is prohibited.

Off-topic posting is permitted within reason, as sometimes a single comment may color or lighten the tone of discussion. However, excessive posting of off-topic remarks in an attempt to derail a thread may result in the thread being locked, or a forum warning being issued to the off-topic poster.

ISD Decoy

Captain

Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)

Interstellar Services Department
Whitehound
#468 - 2015-08-30 17:25:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Whitehound
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Whitehound wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
It also doesnt need an economics degree, to understand that if isk PLEX buyers left the game, that supply and demand would dictate a reduction in PLEX price, as a factor of reduced demand, rather than an increase as now. ...

Nevertheless would a degree have helped you, because you do not understand what is meant by demand. Demand is not the same as the number of players.

We now have more demand for PLEX, because it can be used for more (dual skill queues, ship skins, new clothes and remodelling services).


Ill ask you again.

Explain to me, how a reduction in alts/training, (powered by isk PLEX), due to passing 1bil, would not systemically result in a huge reduction in PLEX demand?

I already told you. See above.

Just like a child depends on its mother does a mother not depend on the child. A dependency does not need to work both ways.

In the same way does the number of players depend on the price of PLEX, but the price of PLEX does not depend on the number of players. This is because some players depend entirely on PLEX for their game even when they do not have to and could just pay for a subscription. At the same time do others purposely manipulate the price of PLEX and exploit their dependency.

I just bought 50 PLEX with ISKs, because of the 1b ISKs mark and I do not even depend on PLEX. It is simply a good investment. At the same time are there reportedly 200,000 PLEX in the game and countless of ISKs.

Do you still believe the price for PLEX depends on the number of players needing them?

Loss is meaningful. Therefore is the loss of meaning likewise meaningful. It is the source of all trolling.
Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#469 - 2015-08-30 17:32:27 UTC
There are so many better things to do with ISK than sitting on high value per unit items like PLEX. Even if it goes to 2.2 Bil that's a 100% return but EVE will also be dead.

Help, I can't download EVE

President of the Commissar Kate Fanclub

PLEX: A Giffen good? (It's 1B?)
Whitehound
#470 - 2015-08-30 18:21:12 UTC  |  Edited by: Whitehound
Rain6637 wrote:
There are so many better things to do with ISK than sitting on high value per unit items like PLEX. Even if it goes to 2.2 Bil that's a 100% return but EVE will also be dead.

We all try to kill EVE by what we do. And owning something others need is always great. You are a Goon. You should understand this.

Loss is meaningful. Therefore is the loss of meaning likewise meaningful. It is the source of all trolling.
Bagrat Skalski
Koinuun Kotei
#471 - 2015-08-30 18:31:47 UTC
Not EVE, a fellow player. There are conflicts and they should run the game, not kill it.

Ultimately what would kill EVE is boredom.

Custom ship skins, character creator style "repaint". Bring it!
Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#472 - 2015-08-30 18:34:29 UTC
Whitehound wrote:
Rain6637 wrote:
There are so many better things to do with ISK than sitting on high value per unit items like PLEX. Even if it goes to 2.2 Bil that's a 100% return but EVE will also be dead.

We all try to kill EVE by what we do. And owning something others need is always great. You are a Goon. You should understand this.

I mean the return is low and the holding period long.

Help, I can't download EVE

President of the Commissar Kate Fanclub

PLEX: A Giffen good? (It's 1B?)
Bagrat Skalski
Koinuun Kotei
#473 - 2015-08-30 18:39:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Bagrat Skalski
PLEX isnt ruining the game, its just an RMT by CCP, its in fact better if the price is rising, because you are making RMTers life outside the game harder. I mean those people who sell ISK for money.

Custom ship skins, character creator style "repaint". Bring it!
Salvos Rhoska
#474 - 2015-08-30 20:21:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Whitehound wrote:
Co plete failure to understand supply and demand, and where PLEX enters the game from


Then why has PLEX price risen, if there are now less accounts (multiplied per player) using isk to PLEX?

PvE v PvP <> Old School Exploration <> CODE Licenses <> CODE Special Agent
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#475 - 2015-08-30 20:25:44 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Whitehound wrote:
Co plete failure to understand supply and demand, and where PLEX enters the game from


Then why has PLEX price risen, if there are less accounts using isk to PLEX?



Are there less accounts using PLEX? There maybe less accounts, but are there less accounts using PLEX?

And don't forget supply. Supply can change resulting in a price increase as well.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Salvos Rhoska
#476 - 2015-08-30 20:31:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Teckos Pech wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Whitehound wrote:
Co plete failure to understand supply and demand, and where PLEX enters the game from


Then why has PLEX price risen, if there are less accounts using isk to PLEX?



Are there less accounts using PLEX? There maybe less accounts, but are there less accounts using PLEX?

And don't forget supply. Supply can change resulting in a price increase as well.


Why would less accounts using PLEX, raise prices?
Less accounts PLEXing means less demand for current supply, thereby reducing price.

Supply of PLEX is solely from people buying PLEX for real money.
Its value may change ingame, but its RLM value is fixed (except for sale periods).

Inversly, the huge 1bil value of PLEX should have increased RLM money purchase of PLEX, and flooded the market, which arguably it has, as we are now steady for the time being at approx. 1bil. Also whoever held onto PLEX before this rise, stands to make a 20-25% profit per unit, incentivising them also to dump now, unless they expect the price to go up even further.

Basic economics 101: Supply and demand.
Whenever supply drops below demand, prices increase.
Whenever supply exceeds demand, prices decrease.

Only three things can have caused the 20-25% rise in PLEX:
1) Less players are buying PLEX for RLM and bringing them to market. (Likely)
2) More players are PLEXing accounts, increasing demand, which doesnt make sense looking at server figures (barring the heuristic probability of en masse bored nullbears spamming training due to Sov ennui) (Unlikely)
2) Powers that be have managed to buy up enough stock to starve the ingame market. (Greatest CCP AWOX ever).

Its an easy mistake to make, to think that people turning off their alts, would increase PLEX price.
(Which I think is the stumbling stone you and the other guy are hitting)
It doesnt.
It means concretely that they remove those accounts from PLEX competition, and thereby reduce demand on PLEX.
The less amount of accounts per player, the lower PLEX will/should drop.
Even moreso if they then choose to sub one or more of those remaining accounts, which reduces PLEX demand even further.

PvE v PvP <> Old School Exploration <> CODE Licenses <> CODE Special Agent
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#477 - 2015-08-30 21:13:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Whitehound wrote:
Co plete failure to understand supply and demand, and where PLEX enters the game from


Then why has PLEX price risen, if there are less accounts using isk to PLEX?



Are there less accounts using PLEX? There maybe less accounts, but are there less accounts using PLEX?

And don't forget supply. Supply can change resulting in a price increase as well.


Why would less accounts using PLEX, raise prices?
Less accounts PLEXing means less demand for current supply, thereby reducing price.

Supply of PLEX is solely from people buying PLEX for real money.
Its value may change ingame, but its RLM value is fixed (except for sale periods).

Inversly, the huge 1bil value of PLEX should have increased RLM money purchase of PLEX, and flooded the market, which arguably it has, as we are now steady for the time being at approx. 1bil. Also whoever held onto PLEX before this rise, stands to make a 20-25% profit per unit, incentivising them also to dump now, unless they expect the price to go up even further.

Basic economics 101: Supply and demand.
Whenever supply drops below demand, prices increase.
Whenever supply exceeds demand, prices decrease.

Only two things can have caused the 20-25% rise in PLEX:
1) Less players are buying PLEX for RLM and bringing them to market. (Likely)
2) Powers that be have managed to buy up enough stock to starve the ingame market. (Greatest CCP AWOX ever).


Lets return to basic principles here. Supply and demand. How can we see prices going up, if demand is stable (i.e., not changing)? Supply has changed. Has the price of PLEX changed? No. Has the potential number of people buying PLEX changed? If that has gone down then we could see a change in the in game supply.

The picture below shows what happens (hopefully I did this right, for some reason I always screw up the drop box links P),

https://www.dropbox.com/s/jx24djmxvo6xeh5/supply-demand1.png?dl=0

We see a decline in the quantity on the market (going from Q1 to Q2). And an increase in price P1 to P2.

Now, if demand for PLEX in game shifts outward (increases at all price levels) then we get this graph.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/10du4so2zsow7m2/supply-demand2.png?dl=0

In this case we get an even higher price, P3, but with an increase in PLEX on the market Q3. Note the demand increase can be for a number of reasons, more players want to PLEX their accounts, or speculators thinking the price of PLEX hasn't reached its peak buy up PLEX as an investment. People taking a break from the game buy PLEX as a hedge against inflation.

As for people buying PLEX for RM and selling them in game, refer to this graph, note the price of PLEX has not changed, and the supply is perfectly elastic (i.e. CCP will sell as many as people want to buy, hence the line at the price $19.95 and the supply curve are the same).

https://www.dropbox.com/s/dx8n2gwvngpober/supply-demand3.png?dl=0

Note that for this reason the in game supply can decrease even though there is a substantial rise in price in game. In fact, that in game price rise is at least in part due to this out of game decrease in demand.

Always becareful about trying to draw conclusions from a price change alone, or even a change in the price an quantity seen on the market.

Could there be market maniuplation? Maybe, but if so it is the sort where somebody is buying up PLEX (and not being noticed) to drive up the price. But this comes with a real risk. If you are sitting on a big pile of PLEX and you decide to sell it you could crash the market before you clear out your inventory and if you bought PLEX all along, you could end up losing a lot of ISK.

And there is no need to develop convoluted conspiracies or theories for why PLEX prices are high. Keep in mind Ockham's razor, do not use more assumptions than you need.

Edit, that shift in the demand curve in the out of game market for PLEX might not be clear. For each individual (who plays the game) their demand function for PLEX is:

q = d(p,q,r,a,I).

Where P is the price of PLEX, $19.95, q is the price of all other goods they have in his consumption basket (i.e. if the price of food rises some people might forgo buying a PLEX to sell in game), r is the price of PLEX in game, ostensibly the higher that goes the more a person would be willing to buy a PLEX to convert to ISK, 'a' represent various "taste" parameters--i.e. we are all different so the parameter 'a' captures that effect, and I is income.

To get the market demand, you'd sum across all players. This would give us

Q = D(p,q,r,a,I,N)

Where Q is market demand, D(.) is our market demand function, and N is the number of people in that market. If N goes down, then Q goes down, and similarly if it goes up.

So the out of game market has two factors effecting it. First, fewer players. The second is the higher price. These two effects move in opposite directions, but if N has a bigger effect than r, then it is quite possible for r to increase quite a bit and still not offset the effect of a decline in N.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Salvos Rhoska
#478 - 2015-08-30 21:28:06 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:


Note that for this reason the in game supply can decrease even though there is a substantial rise in price in game. In fact, that in game price rise is at least in part due to this out of game decrease in demand.


Yes, supply can decrease, though there is a rise in price ingame.
Because:
A) Players who used to buy PLEX and introduce it to the market, or would have done so now, have left the game, and no longer do so. (causal)
B) Players hedging and buying PLEX before expected price increases (reactionary)
C) As is obvious, reduced supply leads to higher prices, assuming demand remains. (constant)

This all goes towards my primary option, that there simply have been less players buying PLEX with RLM, for whatever reason, leading to a reduced supply as measured against even a reduced activity figure (caveat: which doesn't account for training, as its not represented in activity figures)

Teckos Pech wrote:
Could there be market maniuplation? Maybe, but if so it is the sort where somebody is buying up PLEX (and not being noticed) to drive up the price. But this comes with a real risk. If you are sitting on a big pile of PLEX and you decide to sell it you could crash the market before you clear out your inventory and if you bought PLEX all along, you could end up losing a lot of ISK.

And there is no need to develop convoluted conspiracies or theories for why PLEX prices are high. Keep in mind Ockham's razor, do not use more assumptions than you need.

Im aware of that.
Im not tinfoil hatting. I included the possibility, remote as it is, just to be thorough.
And cos it would be an awesome CCP AWOX worthy of EVE.

PvE v PvP <> Old School Exploration <> CODE Licenses <> CODE Special Agent
Webvan
All Kill No Skill
#479 - 2015-08-30 22:01:54 UTC
Bagrat Skalski wrote:
PLEX isnt ruining the game, its just an RMT by CCP, its in fact better if the price is rising, because you are making RMTers life outside the game harder. I mean those people who sell ISK for money.

Yeah but
PLEX is going up = EVE is Dying™
Less multi-boxing = EVE is Dying™
Yearly summer slump = EVE is Dying™
Quicker publishing cycles = EVE is Dying™
A miner got ganked today = EVE is Dying™
Someday EVE is going to dye = EVE is Dying™
PCU in off hours is lower than peak = EVE is Dying™
PCU is higher today than yesterday = EVE is Dying™
CCP won't remove skills and make level classes = EVE is Dying™
EVE is Dying™ just bcuz EVE is Dying™ becuz EVE is Dying™ = EVE is Dying™

I'm in it for the money

Ctrl+Alt+Shift+F12
Whitehound
#480 - 2015-08-30 22:02:25 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Then why has PLEX price risen, if there are now less accounts (multiplied per player) using isk to PLEX?

One reason is of course that PLEX has always risen in value regardless of the number of active players, but with the introduction of more and better uses for PLEX did its demand increase, too. Suddenly could one do more with PLEX than just to use it once per month for more game time. It can now be used to turn ISK into AUR for clothes, ship skins, remodelling services and player transfers, and it can be used for two skill queues on one account (and without the previous 24h length limitation). So PLEX has become much more attractive and to all players, not just those who want to play for free. This is why we are seeing a more rapid increase in the PLEX price. Did it take over 3 years for PLEX to climb from 300m ISKs to 600m ISKs has it increased in only 2 years to 1b ISKs.

Loss is meaningful. Therefore is the loss of meaning likewise meaningful. It is the source of all trolling.