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Countering Risk Aversion

First post
Author
Jori McKie
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#61 - 2015-05-01 08:43:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Jori McKie
From my experience and i did train a lot of newbies into solo/small scale PvP it isn't really risk aversion.
It is failure aversion.

The biggest problem i encountered so far is knowledge, if you have no clue about PvP mechanics, about EVE mechanics, about ships abilities and possible fittings you won't engage in PvP because you fear to lose anyway. Give pilots enough basic knowledge and train them a little then let them make their own experiences it will change their whole world. How much fun is it for a Pilot to be a F1 monkey? Maybe the first 100x times he is in a fleet and shooting stuff because it is new. After that it is just boring but the worst thing is the Pilot did learn nothing, nada, zero.

You train your own Pilots to be clueless monkeys, do you think a clueless monkey is risking anything? Consequences? As described in this topic.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar

Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#62 - 2015-05-01 09:02:14 UTC
Kashadin wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
Akirei Scytale wrote:
in short, KBs don't tell you squat except "hes blown **** up before" or "he's died before".
Nope.

Kill count can be misleading, but losses are straightforward: if you lose just 2 ships/month, you're rarely putting your ship in real danger. Doesn't get any clearer than that.

If you're not putting your ship in danger, you're personal contribution to internet space explosions is poor. Unless, of course, you're one of those heroic space truckers that spend their time buying/hauling/fitting ships for others to have fun with!




Unless that person is just not losing fights...i mean, like I said to get kills you have to put your ships in danger of being blown up.
Sure.

To be clear: I have nothing against cautious, careful PVP-ing and trying to maximise kills per loss.

It's a valid playstyle as any other. But it is, in fact a playstyle. A player's choice. Game mechanics (including insurance) won't change that!


To your point: if you're always winning fights, you're not really risking. There's no way around it. Because in EVE you can choose your fights.

Say you're a really really good PVPer. You know your sh*t, you're always on the ball, you put countless hours into perfecting your game.

So do you always win fights?

Well, it depends. Yes you're better than most other players. You'd beat them all in a 1v1 with same ships/fits. But EVE isn't about 1v1 battles. If you want a challenge, you can still go pick 1v10s, with competent players. Have fun, keep the adrenaline pumping, and yes - most probably lose several ships.

On the other hand, even if you're bad at PVP, you can always limit yourself to 10v1 ganks and win.


TL;DR: taking risks or not is a personal choice, more insurance won't change that much, and my hunch is that the OP's choice is - and always will be - risk-averse PVP.

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#63 - 2015-05-01 09:20:28 UTC
Akirei Scytale wrote:
You're drastically oversimplifying things to try to make them fit your preference. That's like sorting the most aggressive footballers by goals missed. Some are just more accurate than others.
LOL, no. I'm afraid you missed the point entirely.

To use your example, I'm talking about professional footballers that decide to drop their premier league team and go play with amateurs, because they can't take the pressure. And then complain that the amateurs are risk-averse because they don't enjoy being dunked by them every single time.

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Akirei Scytale
Okami Syndicate
#64 - 2015-05-01 09:29:54 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
Akirei Scytale wrote:
You're drastically oversimplifying things to try to make them fit your preference. That's like sorting the most aggressive footballers by goals missed. Some are just more accurate than others.
LOL, no. I'm afraid you missed the point entirely.

To use your example, I'm talking about professional footballers that decide to drop their premier league team and go play with amateurs, because they can't take the pressure. And then complain that the amateurs are risk-averse because they don't enjoy being dunked by them every single time.


Wat. That isn't even close to the discussion. You're now referring to one specific case, and not talking in general terms like everyone else here. I assure you, plenty of people don't even enter places like highsec or lowsec and have those "crazy efficient" records. That's hardly stepping down a league to fight people who can't fight back. It's just a mark of someone who carefully considers when to engage, and doesn't leave openings for others to take advantage of. An aware, cautious player.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#65 - 2015-05-01 09:42:03 UTC
Feyd Rautha Harkonnen wrote:
I hear you, I do; so while the 95% used in another game is a point of reference, it doesn't mean we have to go to that level. We have insurance already today though -- so I am not advocating anything new here. The sky hasn't already fallen because people can today buy hull insurance...
The problem with rebalancing insurance is that it's nearly impossible to increase it without creating a situation where it's profitable to kill yourself. It certainly wouldn't ever get to a point where it's beneficial enough to encourage people to lose more ships frequently while maintaining a healthy economy. I think a lot of the problem lies in people not wanting to lose anything, and so without making the loss negligible, most people will still refuse to fight when they believe they have a decent chance of losing.

The real solution is to make it more rewarding to win. People will take risks, but they need to be rewarded. As it stands, much of the PvP in the game has flat rewards, meaning your best choice is always to take the weaker targets as you'll be rewarded by their loot drops all the same. The reward should be curved so you take on easy targets and get less, while you take on larger risks and get more. How they accomplish that though I do not know. One thing that will always remain though is that people who don't want to fight won't, even if you remove a lot of the risk.

Feyd Rautha Harkonnen wrote:
More heresy? Pure PVE careers are viable in EvE, but pure-PVP careers not so much, you eventually run out of starting capital and have to run incursion/etc alts to fund your pvp, unless that is you limit yourself to flying T1 crap or (you guessed it) being risk averse and only fight when you know you will win..bah. We don't force PVE players to have PVP alts, but we kinda force PVP players to have PVE alts (or be very risk averse)...hmmm
That really depends on the PvP. Ganking is quite profitable when done right and merc corps have proven they can earn a good sum through PvP just to name a couple. The problem again though is with the flat rewards from PvP. If you take riskier PvP you won't be more rewarded, so at a certain level of risk PvP stops being profitable, which in turn encourages risk aversion.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

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Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#66 - 2015-05-01 09:45:06 UTC
"Risk" is a concept hard to grasp. CCP mostly fails to get it, for an instance.

"Risk" is what makes you stop doing a thing. Every player haves a threshold for it. And that threshold, contrary to what most stupid in the game believe (with CCP ahead of them), haves nothing to do with "reward". Among other things, because "reward" is also what a player defines as what makes him to do something.

A developer may think that adding better rewards to a mechanic will increase the risks being taken by the individuals engaging into that activity. But that's wrong. It's horribly wrong. Increasing the rewards for a increased risk will attract a different kind of player -not the players doing that thing with the old rweward/risk ratio.

Upping the risk for a higher reward essentially evicts players from a niche and opens it to a different kind of players. That is, in case that those players are not already doing something more satisfactory than the proposed new activity.

Take Drifter missions. Who are running them? Mission runners? Or people who never ran a mission before?

According to CCP, they've added more content for mission runners; yet according to mission runners, CCP has done **** for them, but has given a new toy to some other guys who already where doing something else.

So the net effect of Drifter missions is: mission runners still quit for lack of new content (fit to their risk/reward balance), and some people who was doing something different now will run Drifter missions occasionally as it suits to their already set risk/reward ratio. So all in all, CCP losses players even while adding new content for the wrong players.

The usual HTFU explanation is "meh, we didn't want those players!". But nothing could be wronger in the land where TQ activity is down to 2007 levels and shrinking despite the massive stimuli package being applied.

CCP should start taking their players at face value. Some people just want to shoot red crosses and get bacon. "Some" as in "25% of their subscribers and 40% of the players they're losing in the first month".

They're not "risk averse". They are paying customers who are paying for a risk/reward ratio and don't give a rat's ass of anybody else's speculations and fantasizing about that. And either CCP starts giving ALL players a reason to stay subbed, or they're gonna be in big trouble.

Because as much as the new release pace keeps players interested, it also adds salt to the injury of players who get nothing... Blink

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you

Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#67 - 2015-05-01 09:51:19 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
As it stands, much of the PvP in the game has flat rewards, meaning your best choice is always to take the weaker targets as you'll be rewarded by their loot drops all the same. The reward should be curved so you take on easy targets and get less, while you take on larger risks and get more. How they accomplish that though I do not know.
Good point!

I wonder if it would be possible to greatly increase the value of salvaging PVP ships, without breaking the salvage market or making it easily exploitable.

For example, having certain salvage materials, essential for many kinds of rigs, only drop from salvaging PVP ships.

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#68 - 2015-05-01 10:00:33 UTC
Akirei Scytale wrote:
It's just a mark of someone who carefully considers when to engage, and doesn't leave openings for others to take advantage of. An aware, cautious player.
Aware, cautious, risk-averse. It's just semantics. And it's ok to be 'aware', no problem with that.

My point is simply: if you're 'aware' now, you'll be just as 'aware' with higher insurance payouts.

You'll take the same fights you take today, and avoid the same fights you avoid today.


And as today, you will only engage PVEers or PVPers that have more balls - sorry, are less 'aware' - than you. Because if everyone was highly 'aware', there wouldn't be many fights, would there?

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

bonkerss
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#69 - 2015-05-01 10:09:14 UTC
eve pvp is paper rock scissors. so most fleets which dont run the specific counter to your ship comp will not engage because the outcome would be bad. also its cyno online. as long as you probably getting blobbed by a bigger fleet its usually better to avoid a lot of situations. the problem with eve is not that people dont want to risk their ships. its just that people are not dumb and dont risk stuff in a situation where the odds are stacked against them. which is almost always the case.

i dont really see a way to make people risk more except if you extremely dumb down the game. even if you get free ships you not gonna risk them in a situation where its very very likely to loose them. so fights in eve will only happen if both sides think they can win it and this only gonna be the case if one side has ever/more numbers and a matching fleet comp to the opposite gang. pvp also will happen if you found yourself a helpless prey. pvp will almost never happen if fleet comps make it impossible to win in the first place. so in a average roam you probably won't engage half of the stuff you encounter because it just makes no sense to have a go at rml cerbs with your harpys for example.

so at the end of the day eve pvp is very unlikely to happen in the first place. and is only gonna happen if you are feeling certain enough that you can win it. considering the paper rock scisors aspect compared with the number game and a possible hot drop it does not give you alot of opportunities to actually engage in the end if you want to ensure victory.

Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#70 - 2015-05-01 10:10:36 UTC
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
Take Drifter missions. Who are running them? Mission runners? Or people who never ran a mission before?

According to CCP, they've added more content for mission runners; yet according to mission runners, CCP has done **** for them, but has given a new toy to some other guys who already where doing something else.

So the net effect of Drifter missions is: mission runners still quit for lack of new content (fit to their risk/reward balance), and some people who was doing something different now will run Drifter missions occasionally as it suits to their already set risk/reward ratio. So all in all, CCP losses players even while adding new content for the wrong players.
I agree with your general point. As long as EVE doesn't lose it's fundamental roots, I'm happy if there are more and more career paths and content to attract all kinds of players.

But I really don't get this point on missions. I don't mission, but I'm assuming these new missions are more challenging than the usual ones.

What else could CCP do add new content to missions??? Make you rescue a dude sometimes instead of a damsel???

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#71 - 2015-05-01 10:23:02 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
But I really don't get this point on missions. I don't mission, but I'm assuming these new missions are more challenging than the usual ones.

What else could CCP do add new content to missions??? Make you rescue a dude sometimes instead of a damsel???
They could make the number and size of rats more dynamic, they could mix objectives, even do in mission escalations "Oh no, you got the damsel but this guys is escaping with vital information about his gang, chase him down!" *new encounter area* - additional rewards for completing this section. Adding time critical pieces could be good too, like you have choices of how to deal with a given mission, but if you take too long they get away and you fail it. To be honest, failure states don't really exist in missions beyond "I lost my mission item", so just those alone would be good to see added.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

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Aralyn Cormallen
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#72 - 2015-05-01 10:28:26 UTC
Akirei Scytale wrote:
That's hardly stepping down a league to fight people who can't fight back. It's just a mark of someone who carefully considers when to engage, and doesn't leave openings for others to take advantage of. An aware, cautious player.


What would be a simple catch-all term for that sort of player. Hmm, maybe "risk averse"? Blink
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#73 - 2015-05-01 10:28:35 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
But I really don't get this point on missions. I don't mission, but I'm assuming these new missions are more challenging than the usual ones.

What else could CCP do add new content to missions??? Make you rescue a dude sometimes instead of a damsel???
They could make the number and size of rats more dynamic, they could mix objectives, even do in mission escalations "Oh no, you got the damsel but this guys is escaping with vital information about his gang, chase him down!" *new encounter area* - additional rewards for completing this section. Adding time critical pieces could be good too, like you have choices of how to deal with a given mission, but if you take too long they get away and you fail it. To be honest, failure states don't really exist in missions beyond "I lost my mission item", so just those alone would be good to see added.
Makes sense, thanks for the reply!

Yeah, I hope CCP does something like that. More people shooting red crosses while paying for 'my' PVP servers is always good!

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#74 - 2015-05-01 10:40:39 UTC
bonkerss wrote:
so at the end of the day eve pvp is very unlikely to happen in the first place. and is only gonna happen if you are feeling certain enough that you can win it. considering the paper rock scisors aspect compared with the number game and a possible hot drop it does not give you alot of opportunities to actually engage in the end if you want to ensure victory.
Look, I don't know how it works in null, but here's how it works in lowsec.

We fly anything from solo to small gang to small (doctrine) fleets usually less than 30 people. Frigates to battleships and, occasionally, caps.

To get fights we upship, downship, fight in FW plexes (that limit both the size of ships that can enter and the possibility to cyno-in or even warp-in), vary the logi-to-dps and ewar-to-dps ratio, etc. etc.

When I'm solo, I often engage 1v many. Sometimes I win, sometimes I get a few shots then run, sometimes I pop (often Lol). Whatever happens, a couple of people (including me) had more fun than ship-spinning.

And from my experience I can say this with 100% certainty: assuming a minimum of competence, an aggressive (aka risk-taking) FC and pilots will ALWAYS get more kills than a cautious FC/group that hesitates. Sure, lose some, but kill much more (number-wise and - even more so - ISK-wise).


So that's why I get a little worked up when another 'suggestion to counter risk aversion' comes up. Because all you need is already in the game. Just get out there and fight, ffs!!! Roll

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Nicolai Serkanner
Incredible.
Brave Collective
#75 - 2015-05-01 10:46:19 UTC
Feyd Rautha Harkonnen wrote:
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:

...
Your example is of lower-skilled newbies not wanting to undock without an FC in to a high-skilled fleet with a talented FC in a tightly specialised comp. It had nothing to do with SRP, they just didn't want to get mown down by a clearly superior fighting force. ...

Strange...That's not what the two Brave Newbies that were so disgusted with their brethren told us, when they joined our fleet and comms and raged about how their buds were so risk adverse and unwilling to fight until they had SRP confirmed first.... :)

Hell, one of our richer dudes even offered to do the SRP for them... lolzors.



Out of the 250 Newbies in system you have chosen to take the word of two of them ...LOL ... go away!
Nicolai Serkanner
Incredible.
Brave Collective
#76 - 2015-05-01 10:54:58 UTC
Ma'Baker McCandless wrote:
I still dont understand why risk aversion is a bad thing.

The first thing that people like me who PvP badly do is discount KMs and Reputation as these are impossible to recover once lost and so are meaningless.

And while replacing the ship itself may or may not be hard, I cant say I keep 10 fitted replacement ships handy in every system I plan on fighting in, not counting the places I dont plan on it.


Risk aversion isn't a bad thing. Risk aversion is the normal thing to do. We do it all the time in game and out of game.
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#77 - 2015-05-01 11:05:32 UTC
Nicolai Serkanner wrote:
Risk aversion isn't a bad thing. Risk aversion is the normal thing to do. We do it all the time in game and out of game.
Nope.

Risk aversion is innate to human beings because nature, survival and all that jazz. But generally speaking it doesn't really make sense: why should you over-estimate risks compared to opportunities (pretty much the definition of risk-aversion)? Why not do the opposite? Or do your best to get a balanced viewpoint? Or make - say - one risky decision for every cautious decision?

When your own (real) life isn't at risk, it's just an unnecessary hindrance. Especially in a game, FFS!

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!

Leannor
State War Academy
Caldari State
#78 - 2015-05-01 12:09:39 UTC
for me there's three elements to this - it's not a simple thing at all.

1) there's the view of the angry that those not willing to fight (to either encounter them or assist them) is because they think others are cowards and not wanting to fight. May be true, might not be. But this first category are those people. Where there's a fair fight and they're able and 'avaialbe', then, yes, they're risk adverse.

2) Being risk adverse when a gang of 100 enter system and you have 10 people, ... is the age old problem in that many fight in eve( if not all bar a few) are heavily out-balanced. To the degree that you know in advance who will win, so what's the point. Ergo, there is no 'risk' just 'certainty'. and all you're going to do is prove you were right. THis isn't risk adverse, though many will think it is. It's actually suicide adverse.

3) Thene there's the percieved risk adverse when people just can't be bothered, at that point in time, or generally, to go through the hassle of picking a ship, undocking, hunting, or concentrating about attacking at that time ... these people are just wrong place wrong time for a fight. They'#re not risk adverse, they're lethargic, or just caught at a bad time.

point 2) is around 90%, point 3 is around 50% (yes, overlap with point 2), and point 1) I rekon is around 20%, again overlap.

just in my experience ... and I've been around alot.

"Lykouleon wrote:

STOP TOUCHING ICONIC SHIP PARTS"

BeBopAReBop RhubarbPie
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#79 - 2015-05-01 12:26:19 UTC
Feyd, I have to strongly disagree with you here. I would rather see insurance removed entirely and bounties turned into a usable system. Because of the existence of friends/alt accounts the total payout on a destroyed ship cannot be higher than the ship hull + modules is worth. This payout includes the modules that drop from the ship. Currently in eve there is no real incentive for winning a fight, however there is a huge incentive to not lose. If you win you get what? A fraction of the ship's hull's value IF they even have a bounty? And if they're flying a faction ship its even less? When you lose, you get a pitiful amount returned. Players already create 100% SRP programs, so why is it more profitable for a player in a larger alliance to lose a ship than it is to kill someone?

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Feyd Rautha Harkonnen
Doomheim
#80 - 2015-05-01 14:12:11 UTC
BeBopAReBop RhubarbPie wrote:
Feyd, I have to strongly disagree with you here. I would rather see insurance removed entirely and bounties turned into a usable system. Because of the existence of friends/alt accounts the total payout on a destroyed ship cannot be higher than the ship hull + modules is worth. This payout includes the modules that drop from the ship. Currently in eve there is no real incentive for winning a fight, however there is a huge incentive to not lose. If you win you get what? A fraction of the ship's hull's value IF they even have a bounty? And if they're flying a faction ship its even less? When you lose, you get a pitiful amount returned. Players already create 100% SRP programs, so why is it more profitable for a player in a larger alliance to lose a ship than it is to kill someone?

Consider...

Not everyone has SRP, there are many not in alliances with good SRP's.
Alliance SRP doesn't always cover a fight, nor will fight even happen, when a sanctioned FC isn't on to approve it.
Alliance SRP typically doesn't cover 1 v 1 or small gang shenanigans.
PVE players aren't forced to run PVP alts to fund their PVE, yet pure-PVP players are 'forced' to have PVE alts to fund a pure-PVP career, or forced to inject real $ into their accounts to replace lost ships, above and beyond monthly subscription. That, or they go risk-averse and avoid losses (and edge-case fights) like the plague.
Etcetera. Etcetera...

So, whether its insurance, bounties, better salvage drops..whatever, ideally we would have a mechanism that incentivizes pure-PVP pilots to...pvp more. When I observe daily risk aversion in others (and myself!) to bringing a fight in that middle-ground of 'i'm not sure we will win/lose, and I just lost a Navy Mega yesterday...so I am just going to undock a crappy T1 today..or not at all...', I think thats a problem for a spaceship combat came who markets itself in 95% of all youtube videos based on rawr! spaceship combat.

The 'loss is good' zealots will say 'working as intended', and in many ways I agree loss should be 'felt', but I would rather be inspired to undock another Navy Mega and fight again, than count my shekels in angst over the first loss. I would rather other pilots do the same, culminating in a general mindshift in risk-averse EVE pvp to one that is more truly 'come at me bro!', in good ships, not T1 crap, all the time.

Thats the paradox for people smarter than I to figure out. How do we get a middle ground between the Elite:Dangerous model of *true* PVP YOLO (and 95% replacement coverage), and the risk-averse high-ISK-loss based model we have in EVE?

I think addressing the ISK lost part of the equation is a big part of it.

I also think if we don't seek change, and said middle ground is not sought, then PVP'ers need to shut the hell up about constantly bemoaning risk-aversion in other pilots, and focus on just making strategic PVP goals more compelling. I'm not sure Fozzie SOV alone will do that.

F