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Plex Prices

First post
Author
Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#221 - 2014-12-27 00:57:06 UTC
Diomedes Calypso wrote:
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:



So it is your theory then that Plex is a horrible investment because the price IRL monies has always dropped and the value of In Game Isk has always decreased as well?

Plex is a horrible investment because we cannot control the supply, or the utility. I think this recent week's price crash backs up at least some of what I have been saying.


Well sort of,

I think I'm saying what you are another way. Even if you don't agree with my thinking as I expressed it (in my wordy manner) I do agree with exactly what you are saying.

"we cannot control the supply or utility" Exactly (I explained why I thought supply would increase for Meta reasons and utility would become less scarce)

BUT

I wouldn't call it a "horrible investment" because it is as good or better as the next best ideas I have for PASSIVE (like unsubscibed holdings type of passive) parking of game assets. I anticipate game time coming down to maybe $10 a month

... so I know I'll lose half of the theoretical RMT value...but I don't see doing much better with other assets and at least I see a bottom.


Trit ? yes that does make a fair bit of sense to me. that might be a better bet than holding characters or game time tokens... maybe I will put 1/4 of my game assets there.

My main theory was that Player Time ingame.. not character time, is the greatest constant and so an asset that will take just as much time to collect in the future as the present would be the best investment. I'd need to trust that it doesn't become easier to mine Trit per player hour...or that the game requires less trit but some players continue to collect it as a by product of some other activity, and that is something I am wary about.


I see what you are saying now.

Well my problem with Plex is multi-faceted and stems from two problems, one the demand is dropping as the player base becomes "younger" and new accounts buy old ones which requires Isk. Demand is dropping because subscription numbers are taking a beating and have been naturally declining for 3.5 years.

But two, my problem is also that while the argument that Plex has utility as game time is valid on its face, when one looks at the history of CCP and the decisions as of late, I wouldn't put much stock into anything being the same in 6 months as it is today. Look at the mutlibox rule changes, team industry reversal, the sudden inclusion of dual skill training, training itself was massively changed and of course the GTC change which was huge and was game altering.

And last like you said the supply cannot be controlled. Realize it would only take one Eve player winning the lottery, or inheiriting a lot of money to crash the market down to 0. 3600 buy orders up today, 4000 sell orders. If someone had say 50k euro they could sell to every buy order and leave 4000 units to trickle through the next few weeks in an already over supplied market.

The only sound reason for why Plex has "always gone up" is that the economy worldwide was in shambles when they released it and continued to stagnate along with massive inflation in the game from WH's and Incursions. If CCP were to nerf Incursions or WH's the value of isk would start to tighten again, Economics 101. If the global economy continues to improve like it already has in the US and Canada and Australia, then people will have disposable income for Plex again and your oversupply starts to become a real problem.

Anyways, Plex is being propped up by another valiant effort tonight @770 with several large buy orders... those will be filled by morning :) Crash continues
Tear Jar
New Order Logistics
CODE.
#222 - 2014-12-27 06:38:00 UTC
Diomedes Calypso wrote:
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:



So it is your theory then that Plex is a horrible investment because the price IRL monies has always dropped and the value of In Game Isk has always decreased as well?

Plex is a horrible investment because we cannot control the supply, or the utility. I think this recent week's price crash backs up at least some of what I have been saying.


Well sort of,

I think I'm saying what you are another way. Even if you don't agree with my thinking as I expressed it (in my wordy manner) I do agree with exactly what you are saying.

"we cannot control the supply or utility" Exactly (I explained why I thought supply would increase for Meta reasons and utility would become less scarce)

BUT

I wouldn't call it a "horrible investment" because it is as good or better as the next best ideas I have for PASSIVE (like unsubscibed holdings type of passive) parking of game assets. I anticipate game time coming down to maybe $10 a month

... so I know I'll lose half of the theoretical RMT value...but I don't see doing much better with other assets and at least I see a bottom.


Trit ? yes that does make a fair bit of sense to me. that might be a better bet than holding characters or game time tokens... maybe I will put 1/4 of my game assets there.

My main theory was that Player Time ingame.. not character time, is the greatest constant and so an asset that will take just as much time to collect in the future as the present would be the best investment. I'd need to trust that it doesn't become easier to mine Trit per player hour...or that the game requires less trit but some players continue to collect it as a by product of some other activity, and that is something I am wary about.


A big issue with this theory is alts. People with alts are almost always going to plex that alt. And you will see a lot of variance in the value of alts.

For instance, the multibroadcasting changes saw a big downswing in the number of alts and thus plex demand. Multibox mining is still viable, but if CCP made that more difficult, we would see another downswing in the price of plex.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#223 - 2014-12-27 11:03:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Elizabeth Norn
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
Well my problem with Plex is multi-faceted and stems from two problems, one the demand is dropping as the player base becomes "younger" and new accounts buy old ones which requires Isk. Demand is dropping because subscription numbers are taking a beating and have been naturally declining for 3.5 years.


[citation needed]

Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
But two, my problem is also that while the argument that Plex has utility as game time is valid on its face, when one looks at the history of CCP and the decisions as of late, I wouldn't put much stock into anything being the same in 6 months as it is today. Look at the mutlibox rule changes, team industry reversal, the sudden inclusion of dual skill training, training itself was massively changed and of course the GTC change which was huge and was game altering.


Do you have any idea how many multiboxers there are (note that the rule changes are still not in effect), that teams are being removed because no one used them, that dual character training probably increased PLEX demand and what GTC change that was huge and game altering? The one that put out of game GTCs sold for ISK in game as PLEX and still sold for ISK?

Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
And last like you said the supply cannot be controlled. Realize it would only take one Eve player winning the lottery, or inheiriting a lot of money to crash the market down to 0. 3600 buy orders up today, 4000 sell orders. If someone had say 50k euro they could sell to every buy order and leave 4000 units to trickle through the next few weeks in an already over supplied market.


Can you control the supply or utility of any item in the game? Also I've heard that we've already had an aluminium magnate fund his alliance via PLEX.

Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
The only sound reason for why Plex has "always gone up" is that the economy worldwide was in shambles when they released it and continued to stagnate along with massive inflation in the game from WH's and Incursions. If CCP were to nerf Incursions or WH's the value of isk would start to tighten again, Economics 101. If the global economy continues to improve like it already has in the US and Canada and Australia, then people will have disposable income for Plex again and your oversupply starts to become a real problem.


[citation needed] According to Dr. Eyjo, the EVE economy is in slight deflation.
Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#224 - 2014-12-27 12:17:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Toad The Hitchhiker
ITT: Elizabeth Norm trying desperately to keep the value of her Plex hording up. Roll

I and others have explained all those reasons, but yet you want citation. Even the goons wrote about this back in July and after the CSM8 discussion on Plex. They said it then, most plex are consumed by accounts, however a lot of oversupply is sitting in hangers as investments, and that number has increased.

Overall demand for Plex has been steadily dropping and the amount purchased from CCP has increased but the price still went up. Dr. EyjoG explained that speculators had driven up the price and did it with the massive influx of Incursion and FW isk.

Also: "The final discussion point turned to PLEX. The graph very clearly showed both the FW driven spike and intervention by CCP - no further intervention has occurred since. EyjoG confirmed that their goal with plex is to prevent dramatic changes. Their preferred metric is PLEX price divided by subscriptions - maintaining a particular price is not a concern."

It was confirmed that CCP used banned accounts storage of Plex to seed the market at the end of last year and into this year.

Again, you cannot control the supply of Plex, if CCP magically decides the price is too high it drops it on it's own through Sales and Seeds.

You cannot control Utility. Plex is used for many things now, but that isn't always going to be the case. Trit is always used for ship and mod building until day this game ends. Some things have changed over time (pos fuel) but Plex is the only one that crosses RL and InG boundaries.

And we aren't in deflation yet... more like Stagnation: http://cdn1.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/65910/1/Indices_2014-02.png
Keep trying Liz... those blocking orders at 770 were gobbled up quick. 768 new block but only one set of 50 left.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#225 - 2014-12-27 13:02:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Elizabeth Norn
You've just made unsubstantiated claims, most likely pulled out of your arse.

I'm just here to make ISK, whether that's through PLEX or otherwise (my investments are more diverse than just PLEX) and so far I'm doing okay. If PLEX goes down, that just means Fanfest and EVE Vegas are cheaper for me. You're the one with a vendetta against PLEX and shouting random things.

You said inflation, Eyjo said deflation, now you say stagnation.
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#226 - 2014-12-27 13:05:49 UTC
ITT: Toad looks on from the backrow in amazement as plex prices get pumped and dumped.

(hes also been waiting for the popcorn guy to come up for the last 2 hours, he wonders the rest of the evening if when he went to take a ****, that the guy had been then and he missed his window, he will never know.)

spreading it a little thick, your posts are tl:dr you want a cookie dude?

@JerryTPepridge

Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#227 - 2014-12-27 13:13:15 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
You've just made unsubstantiated claims, most likely pulled out of your arse.

I'm just here to make ISK, whether that's through PLEX or otherwise (my investments are more diverse than just PLEX) and so far I'm doing okay. If PLEX goes down, that just means Fanfest and EVE Vegas are cheaper for me. You're the one with a vendetta against PLEX and shouting random things.

You said inflation, Eyjo said deflation, now you say stagnation.


General Economy = Stagflation
Certain areas pertinent to this discusion = ... guess for yourself

I personally couldn't care less what Eyjo said except that he confirmed that CCP intervene's in Plex prices by seeding the market with confiscated Plex... hence even more reason not to use it as an Isk Park.

And if you truly believe the game is experiencing Deflation the LAST place you want to park your isk is in an item, you want to park it liquid.
Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#228 - 2014-12-29 11:23:06 UTC
Well over 800 again now in Jita. Trend break or correction after steep price fall? Time will tell but I'm not holding my breath that we'll be seeing prices go down much more...
Koniforous
Tauren Transit
#229 - 2014-12-29 11:51:32 UTC
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#230 - 2014-12-29 11:59:10 UTC
Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:
Well over 800 again now in Jita. Trend break or correction after steep price fall? Time will tell but I'm not holding my breath that we'll be seeing prices go down much more...


and less than 2 hours ago it was :

797 / 780 in Jita, (now (814 / 792)
780 / 764 in amarr (now 814 / 764)

Dodixie is still at (797 / 768)

would love to hear from toadfish the hitchhiker to get a professional opinion.

@JerryTPepridge

Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#231 - 2014-12-29 12:34:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Toad The Hitchhiker
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:
Well over 800 again now in Jita. Trend break or correction after steep price fall? Time will tell but I'm not holding my breath that we'll be seeing prices go down much more...


and less than 2 hours ago it was :

797 / 780 in Jita, (now (814 / 792)
780 / 764 in amarr (now 814 / 764)

Dodixie is still at (797 / 768)

would love to hear from toadfish the hitchhiker to get a professional opinion.


Sunday has more players log in and therefore more demand. I was expecting demand stripped so far down that it woudn't matter. Expect a fall throughout the week, especially on holiday.

Also outside of Jita (hubs) the true price of plex is still being reflected down faster.

Also there was that little problem where some RMT got blown up in a rookie ship with 86 plex in his hold and of course not one of them dropped. (Tin Foil)


There does seem to be a huge disconnect between sellers and buyers at the moment. On two different Incursion group channels last night and the night before the discussion of massive Plex price drops was the consensus and these are the people that can most afford it. The Buyers feel the market needs strong downwards correction and the sellers think it is their god given right to prop the price up. This is resulting in some hilarious margins throughout the day and hub price discrepancies of funny levels.
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy
Caldari State
#232 - 2014-12-29 17:04:13 UTC
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
ITT: Elizabeth Norm trying desperately to keep the value of her Plex hording up. Roll

I and others have explained all those reasons, but yet you want citation. Even the goons wrote about this back in July and after the CSM8 discussion on Plex. They said it then, most plex are consumed by accounts, however a lot of oversupply is sitting in hangers as investments, and that number has increased.

Overall demand for Plex has been steadily dropping and the amount purchased from CCP has increased but the price still went up. Dr. EyjoG explained that speculators had driven up the price and did it with the massive influx of Incursion and FW isk.

Also: "The final discussion point turned to PLEX. The graph very clearly showed both the FW driven spike and intervention by CCP - no further intervention has occurred since. EyjoG confirmed that their goal with plex is to prevent dramatic changes. Their preferred metric is PLEX price divided by subscriptions - maintaining a particular price is not a concern."

It was confirmed that CCP used banned accounts storage of Plex to seed the market at the end of last year and into this year.

Again, you cannot control the supply of Plex, if CCP magically decides the price is too high it drops it on it's own through Sales and Seeds.

You cannot control Utility. Plex is used for many things now, but that isn't always going to be the case. Trit is always used for ship and mod building until day this game ends. Some things have changed over time (pos fuel) but Plex is the only one that crosses RL and InG boundaries.

And we aren't in deflation yet... more like Stagnation: http://cdn1.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/65910/1/Indices_2014-02.png
Keep trying Liz... those blocking orders at 770 were gobbled up quick. 768 new block but only one set of 50 left.



If that chart is your demonstration of "stagflation",I can only conclude you have no idea what stagflation is. How does one determine unemployment in eve btw?
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#233 - 2014-12-29 18:17:01 UTC
Alexi Stokov wrote:

If that chart is your demonstration of "stagflation",I can only conclude you have no idea what stagflation is. How does one determine unemployment in eve btw?


lets see toad wiggle out of this one. Smile

@JerryTPepridge

Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#234 - 2014-12-29 20:42:11 UTC
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
Alexi Stokov wrote:

If that chart is your demonstration of "stagflation",I can only conclude you have no idea what stagflation is. How does one determine unemployment in eve btw?


lets see toad wiggle out of this one. Smile



Easy, I never used the word "Stagflation"

I said STAGNATION... meaning not up or down.
Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#235 - 2014-12-29 20:43:35 UTC
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
Alexi Stokov wrote:

If that chart is your demonstration of "stagflation",I can only conclude you have no idea what stagflation is. How does one determine unemployment in eve btw?


lets see toad wiggle out of this one. Smile

I still haven't figured out yet WHAT he is trying to wiggle exactly.... If I had to make a guess I'd say he's basicly a PLEX hater. If he hates them out of principle (some PPL do) or that he just hates ppl making isk off of them I dunno...

He also made a case out of ANYTHING being a bad idea to invest in cuz of 'everything could change!1!!!11one!' (which I'm sure the average trader/invester is quite aware of and keeps his eggs in several baskets) and whatnot....

OT: jita price seems to be settling nicely above 800. If this upward trend is not followed by a renewed downward trend soon the 'Great PLEX Price Crash of Fall 2014' will not have been a great crash at all and will go down in history as a correction, a rather big correction in PLEX history but just a correction nontheless.


Interesting historical price comparison on X-mas PLEX price: http://nosygamer.blogspot.nl/2014/12/a-quick-history-of-christmas-plex-prices.html
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#236 - 2014-12-29 20:58:46 UTC
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
General Economy = Stagflation
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
Easy, I never used the word "Stagflation"
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
lets see toad wiggle out of this one. Smile

Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#237 - 2014-12-29 21:45:25 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
General Economy = Stagflation
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
Easy, I never used the word "Stagflation"
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
lets see toad wiggle out of this one. Smile




Yep I did mistype that one time, The quoted post, the quoted post when I responded, the initial post all were stagnation.

Anyways, does this detract from the fact that Jita is lone prop up of the cost of Plex? All of Eve just dropped to 771 again, so the attempt to holdup the price is starting to crumble.


There are some very wealthy people trying to keep this price up. I think they just don't like me Lol

Anyways, I am signing off, too much hate and I don't benefit from voicing my opinion. And that is all this is, opinion. No one knows the future.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#238 - 2014-12-29 21:46:12 UTC
Also:-

Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
The only sound reason for why Plex has "always gone up" is that the economy worldwide was in shambles when they released it and continued to stagnate along with massive inflation in the game from WH's and Incursions. If CCP were to nerf Incursions or WH's the value of isk would start to tighten again, Economics 101. If the global economy continues to improve like it already has in the US and Canada and Australia, then people will have disposable income for Plex again and your oversupply starts to become a real problem.
Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#239 - 2014-12-29 21:49:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Toad The Hitchhiker
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Also:-

Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
The only sound reason for why Plex has "always gone up" is that the economy worldwide was in shambles when they released it and continued to stagnate along with massive inflation in the game from WH's and Incursions. If CCP were to nerf Incursions or WH's the value of isk would start to tighten again, Economics 101. If the global economy continues to improve like it already has in the US and Canada and Australia, then people will have disposable income for Plex again and your oversupply starts to become a real problem.



What did you discover Matlock?

I said it before. Isk supply is inflated, massively. Prices have been stagnant.... Plex is not a normal Eve commodity. Plex is injected from outside the game, the rest of the items are from inside the game.

So again, what would you like to show the Jury as exhibit A?
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy
Caldari State
#240 - 2014-12-29 22:35:22 UTC
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
General Economy = Stagflation
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
Easy, I never used the word "Stagflation"
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
lets see toad wiggle out of this one. Smile




Yep I did mistype that one time, The quoted post, the quoted post when I responded, the initial post all were stagnation.

Anyways, does this detract from the fact that Jita is lone prop up of the cost of Plex? All of Eve just dropped to 771 again, so the attempt to holdup the price is starting to crumble.


There are some very wealthy people trying to keep this price up. I think they just don't like me Lol

Anyways, I am signing off, too much hate and I don't benefit from voicing my opinion. And that is all this is, opinion. No one knows the future.



Yes I did see the stagflation post then scrolled and saw the stagnation chart as one in the same. It was all typo and misreadOops