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ESS Discussion Thread

First post First post
Author
Infinity Ziona
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#641 - 2014-01-18 15:38:33 UTC
Tauranon wrote:
Infinity Ziona wrote:


I think its more likely that you're trying to argue a fallacy. Its a fallacy to say there are not enough anoms to go around. You're Goons, you guys used to undock enmasse in anything and everything and in doing so you managed to beat one of the most sophisticated and rich alliances in the game.



Ah you mean the lesser anomalies - the things you get when not in the 3 or 4 best rat holes in each region ?

Ishtar, 926 dps (5 damage mods, 4 guns, fast locking), presume your escalations are to safe space and you won't be camped/failed to get to one whatever, includes fetch plexboat and travel time in escalation and time to complete escalation.

hidden den. 13 minutes, 6.5m isk. 30m/hr raw with escalation (1 in 73**), 54m/hr. (ded 6 - 400m expected)
Rally point. 7 minutes, 3.5m isk. 27m/hr + escalation (1 in 100) 64m/hr. (ded 6 - 400m expected).
*Port. 9 minutes 8.3m isk, 55m/hr + escalation (1 in 25). 78m/hr. (ded 7 - 213m expected).
forsaken den. 8 minutes, 4.5m isk. 33.7m/hr + escalation (1 in 25). 66m/hr. (ded 7 - 213m expected).
forlorn den. 15 minutes, 11.4m isk, 45.6m/hr + escalation (1 in 50**). 55m/hr. (ded 7 - 213m expected).
forlorn rally point. 19 minutes, 16.5m isk, 52m/hr + escalation (1 in 40**). 62m/hr (ded 8 - 230m expected).

*nb ports gets royally screwed up at military 3.
**poor samples at this point.

Now what did tauranon shoot in her last 40 minutes of Ports you might ask.
2014.01.18 13:12:21 Bounty Prizes 13,113,566.00 ISK
2014.01.18 12:52:21 Bounty Prizes 8,997,563.00 ISK

What should tauranon shoot in her ports (military 2 before they stuff up at military 3).
2014.01.11 13:04:25 Bounty Prizes 19,752,193.00 ISK
2014.01.11 12:44:24 Bounty Prizes 19,023,755.00 ISK

Note that most of my ticks look like the former, and not the latter, and that is caused by traffic. L4 mission running is basically uninterrupted, and if you are talking about the average sov null holding line member, they will undoubtedly play largely during peak server hours, when traffic is pretty much a given. Even if 60m potential is there, it just never happens.

Tauranon needs to stop paying Goons for one system and go take them all. Tauranon has restricted them-self to one system so they suffer terrible consequences.

CCP Fozzie “We can see how much money people are making in nullsec and it is, a gigantic amount, a shit-ton… in null sec anomalies. “*

Kaalrus pwned..... :)

Fix Sov
#642 - 2014-01-18 15:40:37 UTC
Infinity Ziona wrote:
Tauranon needs to stop paying Goons for one system and go take them all. Tauranon has restricted them-self to one system so they suffer terrible consequences.

And magic fairies should pop up and shower them with jelly.

The current sov system is too heavily reliant on the defender saving systems by stuffing as many people as possible into the system for the final timer, instead of incentivizing attacking (and defending) multiple systems at the same time by splitting their forces into multiple fleets and using actual intelligence/strategy. This must change.

Infinity Ziona
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#643 - 2014-01-18 15:44:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Infinity Ziona
Fix Sov wrote:
Infinity Ziona wrote:
Tauranon needs to stop paying Goons for one system and go take them all. Tauranon has restricted them-self to one system so they suffer terrible consequences.

And magic fairies should pop up and shower them with jelly.

Magic fairies are not in yet. I meant take sigs n anoms not sov btw

I'm going to HED-GP! Let's continue this argument there.

CCP Fozzie “We can see how much money people are making in nullsec and it is, a gigantic amount, a shit-ton… in null sec anomalies. “*

Kaalrus pwned..... :)

Trii Seo
Goonswarm Federation
#644 - 2014-01-18 16:00:04 UTC
Infinity Ziona wrote:

Since I ran 6 sites and obtained 6 high end mods I can conclude that the probability is high for high end drops.


Okay, since I ran 10 sites and got nothing but OE I can also conclude there's 0% chance of high-end BPCs. Which disproves your theory of 100% rewards, through "science" but in reality is nothing but talking about edge cases and the sample size is simply too small to determine the reality. It's safe to assume that DED rewards are high, because they are - a BPC will set you up with a bit short of a billion ISK, and you can haul in more than just that.

It is not, however, a reliable income stream - the rewards are random and you are not guaranteed to find a DED anomaly in every system. If you're going for time to find a DED + Time to run it vs. equal time spent by an optimized ratter, optimized ratter is likely to haul more than you in your worst case (long time to find + OE only) and way less than you in your optimistic case (found quickly + good drop).

That said, both income streams over time should produce comparable results since both are exposed to certain risk. A plexing ship often less - gated pockets make it easier to run away if discovered, depots made it much easier to swap out to covert/nullified T3 subs and run a gatecamp and people who pull way too much money running plexes in hostile 0.0 often invest in a black ops with extraction cynos. That said, they can still be snuck up on and caught.

Ratters, on a similar note, need to remain in space for a long time - preferably within one system - to make their income worth their time.

Also, it's not an interesting module. Let's take a look at its value, what you get for 30 million ISK...

Offensive:

Drop one in hostile system to reduce ratting income by 20%

Issues:

Low HP pool (not being a ******** sov structure with a few million of them) means a pack of dedicated DPS ships (Taloses, for once) can burn one down quickly. Requires near-constant supervision to avoid investment loss. Supervision implies the presence of a cloaky scout, the presence of which already reduces system income to near-0 without the added cost of ESS and logistics of deploying it.

Defensive:

...bait? With it actually not being profitable to use, it will become like a drake ratting in a belt. Obvious bait is obvious. With a bomber being able to pop it in 5 min, a gang will be able to dispose of it in less meaning the ESS is already lost by the time you form a counter-gang. Unless a counter-gang is on standby, in which case you'd fight the bad guys anyway - if they picked on the ESS, they're taking the bait anyway so they're balls deep in for it.

There's nothing interesting in this module, it's a waste of dev time and that - is its main problem.

Proud pilot of the Imperium

Arek'Jaalan: Heliograph

La Nariz
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#645 - 2014-01-18 16:43:05 UTC
Infinity Ziona wrote:

So your argument is "That TNT guy knows his stuff". You follow up with a statement inferring I am dishonestly presenting something but with no specifics. You infer there is a requirement for a breakdown of bounties by sec status despite my stating that my income is sec status independent since I roam and ignore sec status entirely. Also given I am un-affiliated I am usually in higher sec status as the majority of affiliated prefer lowest sec for maximal profits precluding my operating in those systems.

You state I have shown that nullsec could use a buff despite my showing that even a soloer such as myself can make billions operating in null with minimal effort. That doesn't quite make sense to me and I think the average non-goon person is intelligent enough to see through your obfuscation of the facts.

I recently wrote a guide, which can be found on Missions and Complexes regarding making absurd amounts of isk in Null. You should probably read it before ignorantly commenting again.


Yes he knows his stuff, he knows why anecdotes aren't scientific evidence. He understands sample size and the importance of reproducible methodology. He also doesn't flip to another point as soon as a point gets shot down or refuted. Considering all of the above, he knows his stuff.

I am not the one who moved from doing some science to provide data on nullsec income to ":goonspiracy: your alliance is deliberatly telling you to do things suboptimally so nullsec gets a buff :goonspiracy:."

I agreed with the TNT guy because his reasoning is sound and he was willing to put far more effort into showing you how you were wrong as well as what your data actually showed. I told you how to get the data you need, the TNT guy told you why your anecdote was wrong and what you actually show. So now its on you to actually bring something back to us other that "lol, no my anecdote trumps any data." Until you do that none of us will take what you say seriously.

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La Nariz
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#646 - 2014-01-18 16:59:23 UTC
Infinity Ziona wrote:

You missed the part about bounties and OE which are 100% probability.

Also randomness and predictability. If I set a random variable which pulls 10 numbers from 1 to 100 and another from 1 to 1,000 I can accurately predict that 5 will appear 10 times more often from the first variable than the second.

Since I ran 6 sites and obtained 6 high end mods I can conclude that the probability is high for high end drops.

Since I have repeated this and consistently obtained the same results this confirms my conclusion that mod drops are high. This is called science. Science is not about proving its about consistency in theory. Even a law is not required to be proven, it requires that it hasn't been disproven.



Your sample size is too small and very cherry picked hence why that is an anecdote and means literally nothing. If you had proof of running >100 sites and received >100 high end mods you have a point. Again I already told you how to get something that isn't an anecdote, if you want to prove your point you are more than capable especially since I've already given you a statistically relevant method.

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Roxie Glitz
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#647 - 2014-01-18 17:10:21 UTC
If you get less paid for NPC-Pirats, the four factions have to pay less for bounties.
Is there any relevant Summit between Amarr, Minmatar, Caldari and Gallente, where the decision was made, to pay less for safety?
Trii Seo
Goonswarm Federation
#648 - 2014-01-18 17:37:07 UTC
Roxie Glitz wrote:
If you get less paid for NPC-Pirats, the four factions have to pay less for bounties.
Is there any relevant Summit between Amarr, Minmatar, Caldari and Gallente, where the decision was made, to pay less for safety?


Those bounties are paid by CONCORD.

The base lore behind this is that the recent events (failure to raid the Serpentis/Angel facilities, namely) are making the Empires lose faith in CONCORD's ability to protect them. With the POCOs yanked away from under their jurisdiction, CONCORD funding is going down and they can't afford to pay you as much for blasting NPCs.

The raw implementation of it however is just plain bad, and at best case useless. The lore is fun - CONCORD tries to tighten its grasp, capsuleers are like "lol no", CONCORD/Navy fleets get stomped by major nullsec warlords. Overall people are unhappy with each other.

One thing makes me wonder though. A lot of 0.0 entities decided to support the pirates and helped them evacuate their research. While it was a truly piratey pact between them, as both sides opened up on each other when the field was clear, we clearly did side with a force opposing the empire interests, to the benefit of Serpentis/Angels.

How about having them realize the potential in Capsuleers that have been raiding them for years now? An ESS equivalent, perhaps a sov upgrade, that flips the sides in your system. You shoot CONCORD/Empire navy instead of pirates, and unique anomalies - ones offering pirate LP payouts spawn in the system.

Proud pilot of the Imperium

Arek'Jaalan: Heliograph

Roxie Glitz
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#649 - 2014-01-18 17:44:38 UTC
Thank you very much for your explanation and your new point of viewsSmile
Thead Enco
Thunderwaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#650 - 2014-01-18 22:04:35 UTC
Bump
Fix Lag
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#651 - 2014-01-18 22:06:44 UTC
Lore is not a tool to justify bad mechanics.

CCP mostly sucks at their job, but Veritas is a pretty cool dude.

Desmond Strickler
#652 - 2014-01-18 22:26:16 UTC
Angelica Dreamstar wrote:
Desmond Strickler wrote:
The Black Prince of Wormholes a.k.a The Black Prince of The East
THE PRINCE OF THE EAST !



I am here to free my children and restore peace to the kingdom! Join me on my journey if you wish fellow traveler!

[b]Part-Time Moon Bear and Full-Time Black Guy

"My other dread is a Swaglafar"[/b]

Omega Crendraven
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#653 - 2014-01-19 01:33:20 UTC
OHHHHHHH THE TEARS! THE TEARS ARE WONDERFUL!!!! LET THEM FLOW INTO MY WALLET!



TwistedTwistedTwistedTwistedTwistedTwistedTwistedTwistedTwistedTwistedTwistedTwisted
Tronjay the'3rd
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#654 - 2014-01-19 01:50:10 UTC
you forgot Cult of War on your list

兵者,詭道也。故能而示之不能,用而示之不用,近而示之遠,遠而示之近

**Sun Tzu **©

MatrixSkye Mk2
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#655 - 2014-01-19 02:20:14 UTC
MatrixSkye Mk2 wrote:
Zloco Crendraven wrote:
The default nerf should be 10%. The module drops the income for another 10% but it can rise to 120% eventually.
That would be perfect balance and made everyone happy.

120% is way over the top (in my opinion). And a nerf isn't even necessary. Or, if they insist on a nerf, then build it into the structure. In other words, if the intent is to award players with say, a 15 - 25% bonus for installing the structure, instead make it 10 - 20%. The nerf, in my opinion (and I may be missing something), is just an extra and unnecessary part to the machine.

Actually Zloco Crendraven, I misread your post and have to apologize. I thought I read "by 120%", but you actually wrote "to 120%", which is actually a very reasonable number and I'd fully support it. Here's to hoping, if nothing else.

Successfully doinitwrong™ since 2006.

Infinity Ziona
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#656 - 2014-01-19 05:50:29 UTC
Trii Seo wrote:
Infinity Ziona wrote:

Since I ran 6 sites and obtained 6 high end mods I can conclude that the probability is high for high end drops.


Okay, since I ran 10 sites and got nothing but OE I can also conclude there's 0% chance of high-end BPCs. Which disproves your theory of 100% rewards, through "science" but in reality is nothing but talking about edge cases and the sample size is simply too small to determine the reality. It's safe to assume that DED rewards are high, because they are - a BPC will set you up with a bit short of a billion ISK, and you can haul in more than just that.

It is not, however, a reliable income stream - the rewards are random and you are not guaranteed to find a DED anomaly in every system. If you're going for time to find a DED + Time to run it vs. equal time spent by an optimized ratter, optimized ratter is likely to haul more than you in your worst case (long time to find + OE only) and way less than you in your optimistic case (found quickly + good drop).

That said, both income streams over time should produce comparable results since both are exposed to certain risk. A plexing ship often less - gated pockets make it easier to run away if discovered, depots made it much easier to swap out to covert/nullified T3 subs and run a gatecamp and people who pull way too much money running plexes in hostile 0.0 often invest in a black ops with extraction cynos. That said, they can still be snuck up on and caught.

Ratters, on a similar note, need to remain in space for a long time - preferably within one system - to make their income worth their time.

Also, it's not an interesting module. Let's take a look at its value, what you get for 30 million ISK...

Offensive:

Drop one in hostile system to reduce ratting income by 20%

Issues:

Low HP pool (not being a ******** sov structure with a few million of them) means a pack of dedicated DPS ships (Taloses, for once) can burn one down quickly. Requires near-constant supervision to avoid investment loss. Supervision implies the presence of a cloaky scout, the presence of which already reduces system income to near-0 without the added cost of ESS and logistics of deploying it.

Defensive:

...bait? With it actually not being profitable to use, it will become like a drake ratting in a belt. Obvious bait is obvious. With a bomber being able to pop it in 5 min, a gang will be able to dispose of it in less meaning the ESS is already lost by the time you form a counter-gang. Unless a counter-gang is on standby, in which case you'd fight the bad guys anyway - if they picked on the ESS, they're taking the bait anyway so they're balls deep in for it.

There's nothing interesting in this module, it's a waste of dev time and that - is its main problem.

I think its unlikely that you ran 10 sites and only got OE and bounties. However even if you did you made a good between 600 to 1.3 billion discounting bounties.

But yes you could conclude based on your sample that there is a very low chance of getting a high end mod. Remember a conclusion is not proof its simply based on an analysis of your results. A conclusion on a sample size of 10 is as valid as a conclusion on a sample size of 1000 even if the conclusions are different.

In regards to reliable income streams, after spending months in nullsec and obtaining multiple sample sets I can say that though there are occasions where one only gets an OE + bounties, which are still better then mission income, the majority of the time based on my experience one gets high end drops.

The more data one has the more able one is to presume predictability of a random drop based system, to the point it becomes non-random. Its somewhat similiar to how retail outlets can predict consumer trends and thus future income streams even though even though its impossible to predict individual customer behaviour.

Since I have spent so much time out in null, and run so many sites, I can conclude based on my income so far my future income.

As for the module it certainly is an interesting module:

* It can be used for smart bombing intie traps.
* It can be used to set up no ewarp log on traps.
* It can be set up at a POS with a bit of grid fu for manual gunner killing.
* It can be set up in line with a death or **** star and a strategically placed bubble for auto-pos killing clueless nuets.
* It can just be ignored and you lose a tiny fraction of your ratter bounties.
* It can boost your income from ratting by a tiny fraction.
* It can be used to start conflict in hostile systems and cost your enemy 20% or force them to engage you.
* It can be used to siphon bounties from your enemies.

How is that not interesting?

CCP Fozzie “We can see how much money people are making in nullsec and it is, a gigantic amount, a shit-ton… in null sec anomalies. “*

Kaalrus pwned..... :)

baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#657 - 2014-01-19 06:10:27 UTC  |  Edited by: baltec1
Infinity Ziona wrote:

* It can be used for smart bombing intie traps.
* It can be used to set up no ewarp log on traps.
* It can be set up at a POS with a bit of grid fu for manual gunner killing.
* It can be set up in line with a death or **** star and a strategically placed bubble for auto-pos killing clueless nuets.
* It can just be ignored and you lose a tiny fraction of your ratter bounties.
* It can boost your income from ratting by a tiny fraction.
* It can be used to start conflict in hostile systems and cost your enemy 20% or force them to engage you.
* It can be used to siphon bounties from your enemies.

How is that not interesting?


*Cepters can warp in at any range, only a fool would warp in at that range.
*Cepters can still warp, they will be used to access the ESS
*Ties up an alt that can be used for ratting more isk than the ESS will ever pull in and is unlikely to work anyway.
*Again, interceptors and cloaky ships render this tactic invalid. The ESS will not not be on the same grid as the POS.
*Another nerf to null income at a time when high sec offers better payouts
*The boost from the ESS isnt worth keeping an alt tied up baby sitting it and anyone who does use it without an alt sitting on it is all but garenteed to lose 20% of their earnings.
*They will dock up, the moment we leave they will destroy the ESS. It will be a wasted 30 mil.
*Nobody will allow it to stay up, it will siphon nothing.
Infinity Ziona
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#658 - 2014-01-19 06:40:00 UTC
baltec1 wrote:

*Cepters can warp in at any range, only a fool would warp in at that range.
*Cepters can still warp, they will be used to access the ESS
*Ties up an alt that can be used for ratting more isk than the ESS will ever pull in and is unlikely to work anyway.
*Again, interceptors and cloaky ships render this tactic invalid. The ESS will not not be on the same grid as the POS.
*Another nerf to null income at a time when high sec offers better payouts
*The boost from the ESS isnt worth keeping an alt tied up baby sitting it and anyone who does use it without an alt sitting on it is all but garenteed to lose 20% of their earnings.
*They will dock up, the moment we leave they will destroy the ESS. It will be a wasted 30 mil.
*Nobody will allow it to stay up, it will siphon nothing.

You must be in 2500 of the ESS to access it. You must stay there for 40 seconds. I often cloaky Rokh smartbomb in exploration sites. No decloak recal time on smartbomb activation.

Grid-fu the grid out to 500km, drop the ESS at its minimal distance, likely 200-500km. Blap with manual POS guns.

Make up your mind, they will dock up and then you say they will destroy it. If they dock up then you're costing them isk, if they fight then you can kill them. Dropping one with a CFC cloaky alt will literally garantee they'll not undock and shoot it because 'hotdrop'.




CCP Fozzie “We can see how much money people are making in nullsec and it is, a gigantic amount, a shit-ton… in null sec anomalies. “*

Kaalrus pwned..... :)

baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#659 - 2014-01-19 08:30:18 UTC
Infinity Ziona wrote:

You must be in 2500 of the ESS to access it. You must stay there for 40 seconds. I often cloaky Rokh smartbomb in exploration sites. No decloak recal time on smartbomb activation.

Grid-fu the grid out to 500km, drop the ESS at its minimal distance, likely 200-500km. Blap with manual POS guns.

Make up your mind, they will dock up and then you say they will destroy it. If they dock up then you're costing them isk, if they fight then you can kill them. Dropping one with a CFC cloaky alt will literally garantee they'll not undock and shoot it because 'hotdrop'.






Just wondering, do you know what range these things can be put down at from a POS?

As for the rest, we dont need to drop an ESS to get them to dock up the ratting ships, just having a neut in system is enough.
Wyn Pharoh
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#660 - 2014-01-19 08:43:02 UTC
Wyn Pharoh wrote:
I read somewhere that improving the new player experience, from Hisec to Null aught to be a serious priority. Even over the concerns of those caught in Soul Crushing Lag in HED today. That was posted in fact by someone in that very fight. I admire some of the rather clever mechanics of the ESS concept, to be brutally honest. I like that CCP wants to shake up some of the status quo, and give a bone to small gang dogs along the way. We haven't heard much from Team CCP, but I'm pretty sure that its been posted, or at least implied that piecemeal explanations haven't been winning anyone over to seeing things 'their' way. I'm hoping that there are charts, graphs and an entire new devblog in the works, because I really want New Eden to be a great place to play.

If making the game better for newbros is a high level priority, this isn't the right implementation. Not as presented at least. There are too many 'outs' for those that can afford to not play the 'ESS game'. The richest parts of New Eden will just get richer, while the divide separating them from those on the margins will rise, partially as a direct result of trying to 'improve' their own fields with this new 'farms and fields' content. This hits the cellar of an already broken Trickle Down economic system in a way that, with too little upside, fails to inspire a willingness to endure. The ESS should be a lot more like the Combine was to all those before then that relied upon the yoke and oxen. Something that doesn't nerf fundamental 0.0 life so far below the crude income potential of Hisec that 0.0 is only a playplace for terribly spacerich nerds to posture over.

What an ESS like module aught to do, is give those tending the farms and fields enough upside to do something radically different. It should inspire them to farm in COMBAT SHIPS. Now that would be mindblowing, it would be lots of fun, and I have no idea at all how CCP could possibly make that happen, but it would be WOW, that was a GREAT idea CCP. If you look close enough, that is basically what they want out of the ESS as it is. As it is, it won't work. All the fears of isk faucet and whatnot is just gimping this thing into the ground so badly that 99% of the negrep community just won't use the thing, and have stated bluntly at the alliance level this thing will not be allowed. At all. Provibloc won't even touch it, and having lived there, that's some dirt poor folks saying, no, no way and maybe even never. If any part of New Eden should be embracing a potential wow, +5% TO ratting feature, it should be those guys. If Lol roleplayers and Lol some guy from Drones can't get behind this feature, then there has got to be something terribly terribly wrong.

If the ESS made enough of an impact that ratting in a PVP ship was preferable to being in a PVE ship, every FC in this game would love you. If I was in a small gang, looking at Dotlan for a high NPC kill area, and I had to send in a scout to check if there was an ESS, and then have to seriously consider if it was worth getting the fight that was sure to come, then the ESS would really be working as intended. Those gangs then would either get to pillage failfit PVE ships that thought they could get away with it, or they'd see ready formups happen, gudfites would be had and no one would be complaining about TIDI in HED, because they were just having too much fun elsewhere in New Eden.


I can't understand why this discussion isn't happening in the Dev blog thread itself, but if we tacked these 30+ pages onto the 80+ pages there, then this has reached threadnaught proportions Twisted