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Nocxium: The Sleeping Giant

Author
Mr Blue
Lowlife.
Snuffed Out
#21 - 2012-03-28 15:18:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Mr Blue
swapped from Zyd to nocxium speculation 1 week ago . o/


Not because I dont belive in zyd, its prob gonna go up a lot due to pure speculation(mainly), but long term I belive nocxium gonna go up due to shortage, speculation alone can only keep price up so and so long.
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#22 - 2012-03-28 15:31:46 UTC
Chevalleis wrote:
This is totally on topic.



no kidding
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#23 - 2012-03-28 15:34:08 UTC
Mr Blue wrote:
swapped from Zyd to nocxium speculation 1 week ago . o/


Not because I dont belive in zyd, its prob gonna go up a lot due to pure speculation(mainly), but long term I belive nocxium gonna go up due to shortage, speculation alone can only keep price up so and so long.



no i believe zydrine is here to stay at 1700+ it was 2800 before drone regions. 40% of it comes from drone regions so it wont drop back to 750
Black Reagan
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#24 - 2012-03-28 15:40:36 UTC
Nocxium has already been drying up everywhere , how high do you think it will go?
SgtGoodEnd
BTSK
#25 - 2012-03-28 15:43:04 UTC
Riley Moore wrote:
Hands up if you have Nocxium stockpiles



o/




\o/
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#26 - 2012-03-28 15:47:24 UTC
Black Reagan wrote:
Nocxium has already been drying up everywhere , how high do you think it will go?



atleast double what it is now
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#27 - 2012-03-28 15:51:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Tasko Pal
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:
The rate they are killing miners with a new technique in Amarr:


Yea, nobody ever thought to gank lolfits before.

Added: Oh you're talking about being able to gank several targets before getting Concorded. That's old news too.
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#28 - 2012-03-28 15:57:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Krixtal Icefluxor
Tasko Pal wrote:

Yea, nobody ever thought to gank lolfits before.

Added: Oh you're talking about being able to gank several targets before getting Concorded. That's old news too.



**yawn**

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882

Kalipoli
State War Academy
Caldari State
#29 - 2012-03-28 16:04:22 UTC
Nocx will keep going up for a while before it tops off at around 700. I have no facts to back this its just a feeling. whatever the case ive been stockpiling for some time now all minerals, I knew they all would go up.


As for the two killing all the hulks. Good on you, thank you for pointing out that most miners are stupid. if you go out with less than 10k hp in your hulk, you deserve to blown the f up.
Black Reagan
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#30 - 2012-03-28 16:13:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Black Reagan
Casius Omega wrote:
Black Reagan wrote:
Nocxium has already been drying up everywhere , how high do you think it will go?



atleast double what it is now


I would imagine it spike higher then that since jita is pretty close to running out, 640 now with about 20m units available
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#31 - 2012-03-28 16:14:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Kalipoli wrote:
Nocx will keep going up for a while before it tops off at around 700. I have no facts to back this its just a feeling. whatever the case ive been stockpiling for some time now all minerals, I knew they all would go up.


As for the two killing all the hulks. Good on you, thank you for pointing out that most miners are stupid. if you go out with less than 10k hp in your hulk, you deserve to blown the f up.


Considering I have seen killboards with 1 catalyst doing 5600 damage, it'll take all of *two* of them to blow a tanked hulk that still does what it's meant to (which is not about being an all tank zero yeld bait ship).

Considering that to perform the "boomerang" gank tecniques they tend to use tier 3 BCs (those whith huge alpha), a 10k hulk is a non factor.


About Nocx, when I mined some years ago, there were amazing amounts of pyroxeres. They just happened to be ignored by everyone because of their low ISK/volume.

Once Nocx will rise past a certain value, suddenly the miners will start targetting pyroxeres and then guess what happens.
lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
#32 - 2012-03-28 16:26:12 UTC
If mining makes 18% of all nocxium, nothing much will happen when miners will target pyroxeres.

Nocxium already was at its peak price before zydrine saga. I suppose it is because of declining nocxium inflow from mission loot. The data was from 2008 and we know that many people have switched to incursions instead of running missions. Mining nocxium inflow is miserable and nocxium will become the new technetium. Sky is the limit for nocxium. There will be no new stable price, not at 700 and not even at 2000.
Black Reagan
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#33 - 2012-03-28 16:32:14 UTC
lafforet wrote:
If mining makes 18% of all nocxium, nothing much will happen when miners will target pyroxeres.

Nocxium already was at its peak price before zydrine saga. I suppose it is because of declining nocxium inflow from mission loot. The data was from 2008 and we know that many people have switched to incursions instead of running missions. Mining nocxium inflow is miserable and nocxium will become the new technetium. Sky is the limit for nocxium. There will be no new stable price, not at 700 and not even at 2000.


It will be interesting to see what happens when the nox supply runs out, think most people have already seen the writing on the wall and are stocking up for when the change happens.

only about 4m units left below 640 now
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#34 - 2012-03-28 16:50:55 UTC
The current bubble has nothing to do with the actual Nocx situation.

It's the usual "start manipulation, get as many lemmings in a sack as possible, forum post to gather more, then dump on their face".

Only later the actual shortage will show.
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#35 - 2012-03-28 16:54:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Casius Omega
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
The current bubble has nothing to do with the actual Nocx situation.

It's the usual "start manipulation, get as many lemmings in a sack as possible, forum post to gather more, then dump on their face".

Only later the actual shortage will show.


did you even read what i wrote in the OP?
given time for stock to run out price WILL go up.

sure there will be people who dump there stocks when it rises 10-25% but its those who are here to make dollars not pennies will be the most rewarded.
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#36 - 2012-03-28 17:13:52 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

About Nocx, when I mined some years ago, there were amazing amounts of pyroxeres. They just happened to be ignored by everyone because of their low ISK/volume.

Once Nocx will rise past a certain value, suddenly the miners will start targetting pyroxeres and then guess what happens.


That is indeed the key point.

Nocxium is not limited by supply, it's limited by the number of people harvesting that supply.

Once isk/hour of mining mineral X is better than mineral Y then mineral X will get mined. This being particularly true for nocx which has reasonable quantities in high sec.

Once isk/hour of mining in general becomes competitive with similar relatively mindless activities then people will switch to mining.

Will nocx go up? Undoubtedly. How much, I'm not able to say; personally I remember the price levels of nocx before the Noctis came along the christmas before last, so I'm a little cautious of it. What I can say for certain is that the limit for nocx (and indeed zyd) is lower than the sky.
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#37 - 2012-03-28 17:18:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Casius Omega
Tekota wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

About Nocx, when I mined some years ago, there were amazing amounts of pyroxeres. They just happened to be ignored by everyone because of their low ISK/volume.

Once Nocx will rise past a certain value, suddenly the miners will start targetting pyroxeres and then guess what happens.


That is indeed the key point.

Nocxium is not limited by supply, it's limited by the number of people harvesting that supply.

Once isk/hour of mining mineral X is better than mineral Y then mineral X will get mined. This being particularly true for nocx which has reasonable quantities in high sec.

Once isk/hour of mining in general becomes competitive with similar relatively mindless activities then people will switch to mining.

Will nocx go up? Undoubtedly. How much, I'm not able to say; personally I remember the price levels of nocx before the Noctis came along the christmas before last, so I'm a little cautious of it. What I can say for certain is that the limit for nocx (and indeed zyd) is lower than the sky.



The only rock that drops nocx in high sec is pyro and it has the least ammount of pyro among any of the rocks. Its 0.110 per m3 so every 10m3 you get 1.1 nocx
Yes once it goes up people will start to mine it but can they keep up with the demand for it? React fast enough? I doubt it
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#38 - 2012-03-28 17:35:18 UTC
Casius Omega wrote:

The only rock that drops nocx in high sec is pyro and it has the least ammount of pyro among any of the rocks. Its 0.110 per m3 so every 10m3 you get 1.1 nocx
Yes once it goes up people will start to mine it but can they keep up with the demand for it? React fast enough? I doubt it


If you're asking whether there are enough hi sec rocks, as low in nocx content as they are, in high sec to supply the market's needs then my guess is actually yes, throw in some from wormholes (which weren't around when drone regions were introduced) and resurgence of mining in null (thanks to zyd prices making it attractive) and supply/demand will be there - all it takes is people to harvest it.

And people will harvest it when the price is right.

If you're asking whether they'll be able to react fast enough and switch over to mining rock x instead of rock y or switch from mundane isk making activity X to mining then that's what the market is for.
lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
#39 - 2012-03-28 17:48:01 UTC
Sky is the limit does not mean that no one sell the mineral. It means that demand is higher than offer. With 18% and "pubbie miners" attitude I can clearly see that this can be the case.
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#40 - 2012-03-28 17:49:23 UTC
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:


**yawn**


That's the sound of stupid.

As to nocxium, my take is that the current bump is from people getting out of zydrine. Nocxium has the problem that it's trading at an all time high. It can't go up much more before the low sec roids become more valuable to mine than ABC. And ABC can't go up much more before they're more valuable to mine by players with multiple alts than various grinds like anomalies, WH stuff, and l4 missions.