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New dev blog: The FW Exploit 2012 (or: How I learned about FOREX)

First post
Author
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#101 - 2012-06-28 17:36:09 UTC
CCP Sreegs wrote:

I don't disagree at all I'm just tired and really not prepared to compare one to the other. I'm still heads down in fixing this one.

Understandable - thanks!

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Aryth
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#102 - 2012-06-28 17:38:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Aryth
corestwo wrote:
Gogela wrote:
While I'm sure this is destined to be a goon-run threadnaught, I personally think CCP handled this perfectly. They could have gone extreme and seized all of their assets and isk and banned them, or they could have just ignored the problem (old CCP), but this explanation and the consequences seem very well balanced and *gasp*... fair.

Whoever was in charge of dealing with this... should be given more freedom to deal with things.

+1


You may not have noticed, but all five of us involved (or the ones posting, anyway) are satisfied with CCP's judgement. I mean, we'd prefer our trillions, but we're all capable market players...I'm sure we'll get there on our own soon enough. Cool

The other goons posting are posting because posting is what goons do.


Not only that, but I was already a trillionaire before this. It's not like I am crying all the way to the poor house if CCP just unwinds me. I will remain one of the riches players in EVE. Sure, I would more like trillions, but I got many news articles, a 160 page thread or whatever, multiple blogs/news annoucements and the most hilarious graph to ever exist in the history of EVE play.

Throw in the most ISK in kills/deaths records, and goddamn. I am pretty smug.


But really. The true reward is to dunk on Stoffer. If there is one things goons love, it's trolling goons. Even Ex-goons.

CCP gets press, we get our capital back, EVE gets another hilarious footnote in history. Everyone won here. We just won less than we woulda liked.

Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

Creator of Burn Jita

Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.

Mme Pinkerton
#103 - 2012-06-28 17:39:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Mme Pinkerton
CCP Sreegs wrote:
What we said was that this could be done in such a way that lead to an artificial disparity (albeit one created by our own systems) between the real value of an item and the number we were calculating value based upon to magically die over and over again to gain another currency.

Inquiring minds want to know how you determine the "real value" of an item.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
Goonswarm Federation
#104 - 2012-06-28 17:40:18 UTC
Aryth wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Gogela wrote:
While I'm sure this is destined to be a goon-run threadnaught, I personally think CCP handled this perfectly. They could have gone extreme and seized all of their assets and isk and banned them, or they could have just ignored the problem (old CCP), but this explanation and the consequences seem very well balanced and *gasp*... fair.

Whoever was in charge of dealing with this... should be given more freedom to deal with things.

+1


You may not have noticed, but all five of us involved (or the ones posting, anyway) are satisfied with CCP's judgement. I mean, we'd prefer our trillions, but we're all capable market players...I'm sure we'll get there on our own soon enough. Cool

The other goons posting are posting because posting is what goons do.


Not only that, but I was already a trilloinare before this. It's not like I am crying all the way to the poor house if CCP just unwinds me. I will remain one of the riches players in EVE. Sure, I would more like trillions, but I got many news articles, a 160 page thread or whatever, multiple blogs/news annoucements and the most hilarious graph to ever exist in the history of EVE play.

Throw in the most ISK in kills/deaths records, and goddamn. I am pretty smug.


But really. The true reward is to dunk on Stoffer. If there is one things goons love, it's trolling goons. Even Ex-goons.

CCP gets press, we get our capital back, EVE gets another hilarious footnote in history. Everyone won here. We just won less than we woulda liked.


Can't quote this enough.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Dramaticus
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#105 - 2012-06-28 17:40:37 UTC
There were non-monetary gains to be made that can never be revoked

The 'do-nothing' member of the GoonSwarm Economic Warfare Cabal

The edge is REALLY hard to see at times but it DOES exist and in this case we were looking at a situation where a new feature created for all of our customers was being virtually curbstomped by five of them

CCP Sreegs
CCP Retirement Home
#106 - 2012-06-28 17:41:41 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:
Nagapito wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:

Nobody ever said anything about manipulating the market prices. What we said was that this could be done in such a way that lead to an artificial disparity (albeit one created by our own systems) between the real value of an item and the number we were calculating value based upon to magically die over and over again to gain another currency.

That's not "Market Manipulation" that's blowing someone up over and over again to magically get more money out of the same item.


So... This means that insurance fraud is actually an exploit?
If, somehow, mineral prices hit the ground tomorrow and we start building and blowing ships for the insurance ISK, we are exploiting?


As I said I won't deal in hypotheticals. That could certainly be the case but it could also not be. Are you printing money from nowhere? Is that printing being done in a tremendous volume? If either or both of those is yes then I think it's pretty fair to say we'd be pretty displeased.


Insurance fraud was anything but Hypothetical. Those exact circumstance happened and was abused on a very large scale. If it's an exploit, why no rollback?


I'm discussing this exploit not any one of a number of hypothetical past or future exploits. (or non-exploits)


Fair enough. Insurance fraud just happened to hit both of your Xes in your IF X THEN CCP=Mad statement.

In fact, Insurance Fraud occurred the exact same way that the FW exploit started (with the freighters full of minerals).

The market fell >> The CCP value of minerals stayed higher than the market >> People committed blew up their ships to make tons of money. In this case it was LP, with insurance fraud it was ISK, and instead of having to pay for insurance, all you had to do was join FW.

The furtherance of the exploit was due to the small size of the EvE market and the presence of totally useless, rare items.


Yeah and what I'm trying to get at is that I didn't compare how we felt with handling this decision based on past decisions others might have made. We looked at the situation and did what we felt was the right thing for the game as a whole, so I'm not really prepared to discuss x vs. y because we didn't ever discuss it internally and these decisions aren't made solo.

"Sreegs has juuust edged out Soundwave as my favourite dev." - Meita Way 2012

Gogela
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#107 - 2012-06-28 17:42:50 UTC
Aryth wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Gogela wrote:
While I'm sure this is destined to be a goon-run threadnaught, I personally think CCP handled this perfectly. They could have gone extreme and seized all of their assets and isk and banned them, or they could have just ignored the problem (old CCP), but this explanation and the consequences seem very well balanced and *gasp*... fair.

Whoever was in charge of dealing with this... should be given more freedom to deal with things.

+1


You may not have noticed, but all five of us involved (or the ones posting, anyway) are satisfied with CCP's judgement. I mean, we'd prefer our trillions, but we're all capable market players...I'm sure we'll get there on our own soon enough. Cool

The other goons posting are posting because posting is what goons do.


Not only that, but I was already a trillionaire before this. It's not like I am crying all the way to the poor house if CCP just unwinds me. I will remain one of the riches players in EVE. Sure, I would more like trillions, but I got many news articles, a 160 page thread or whatever, multiple blogs/news annoucements and the most hilarious graph to ever exist in the history of EVE play.

Throw in the most ISK in kills/deaths records, and goddamn. I am pretty smug.


But really. The true reward is to dunk on Stoffer. If there is one things goons love, it's trolling goons. Even Ex-goons.

CCP gets press, we get our capital back, EVE gets another hilarious footnote in history. Everyone won here. We just won less than we woulda liked.

Wow... frickin' goon... you actually have a really good attitude about this game. Shocked

Signatures should be used responsibly...

Lyron-Baktos
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#108 - 2012-06-28 17:44:22 UTC
The 5 players involved should be glad nothing serious happened to their accounts. Not reporting it for 2 weeks is unbelievable. On day one when they saw how crazy it was, it should have been reported
CCP Sreegs
CCP Retirement Home
#109 - 2012-06-28 17:44:42 UTC
Mme Pinkerton wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:
What we said was that this could be done in such a way that lead to an artificial disparity (albeit one created by our own systems) between the real value of an item and the number we were calculating value based upon to magically die over and over again to gain another currency.

Inquiring minds want to know how you determine the "real value" of an item.


It's in the blog. There's the current cost you pay for an item and there's the rolling average of the item's value. LP gain was tied to the long term average cost which is calculated by us. By causing disparity in the two values, whether on purpose or if it happens naturally, you can be in a position where you can print LP (corrected :)) by just buying things and shooting yourself.

The destruction of items to harvest LP is the main issue here. The manipulation of the average cost in and of itself is not at this point in time considered problematic. It's merely how much that can be used to amplify the damage caused by the destruction.

"Sreegs has juuust edged out Soundwave as my favourite dev." - Meita Way 2012

Liam Mirren
#110 - 2012-06-28 17:45:59 UTC
Goon tears best tears.

Excellence is not a skill, it's an attitude.

Bienator II
madmen of the skies
#111 - 2012-06-28 17:47:34 UTC
this kind of market/LP payout/whatever anomalies should have been detected by CCP long before anyone admited the exploit.

this was basically a best case scenario, a small group of people creates an exceptional LP payout anomaly. If something changes by factor 1000 repeatedly every light should blink at the monitoring tools.

you are monitoring FW, aren't you?

how to fix eve: 1) remove ECM 2) rename dampeners to ECM 3) add new anti-drone ewar for caldari 4) give offgrid boosters ongrid combat value

Sofia Wolf
Ubuntu Inc.
The Fourth District
#112 - 2012-06-28 17:48:39 UTC
While I can see CCP Sreegs did his best to deal with situation fairly I think he forgot something. In order to manipulate LP prices in faction store bunch of LP was invested in to system upgrades that strongly benefited Minmatar at the expense of Amarr side of FW. Given that now it was decided this LP was gained through exploit IMHO CCP should also remove system upgrades gained by those LP, assuming CCP can track which upgrades where bought with legitimate LP and which were acquired by exploit LP.

Jessica Danikov > EVE is your real life. the rest is fantasy. caught in a corporation. no escape from banality. open up yours eyes, peer through pod good and seeeeeee. I'm just a poor pilot, I need no sympathy. because I'm easy scam, easy go, little isk, little know. anyway the solar wind blows...

Aryth
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#113 - 2012-06-28 17:48:39 UTC
CCP Sreegs wrote:
Mme Pinkerton wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:
What we said was that this could be done in such a way that lead to an artificial disparity (albeit one created by our own systems) between the real value of an item and the number we were calculating value based upon to magically die over and over again to gain another currency.

Inquiring minds want to know how you determine the "real value" of an item.


It's in the blog. There's the current cost you pay for an item and there's the rolling average of the item's value. LP gain was tied to the long term average cost which is calculated by us. By causing disparity in the two values, whether on purpose or if it happens naturally, you can be in a position where you can print LP (corrected :)) by just buying things and shooting yourself.

The destruction of items to harvest LP is the main issue here. The manipulation of the average cost in and of itself is not at this point in time considered problematic. It's merely how much that can be used to amplify the damage caused by the destruction.


I hope when you guys do the redesign, using it as a matter convertor is still possible. I felt it was the most interesting part of this mechanic in the long run. It will provide some creative ways to run manips on item prices as well as create artificial scarcity for items if you are willing to put ISK behind it.

If you think permageddon is bad, wait until you see what we can do with a matter converter.

Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

Creator of Burn Jita

Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
Goonswarm Federation
#114 - 2012-06-28 17:48:54 UTC
Aryth wrote:
Not only that, but I was already a trillionaire before this. It's not like I am crying all the way to the poor house if CCP just unwinds me. I will remain one of the riches players in EVE. Sure, I would more like trillions, but I got many news articles, a 160 page thread or whatever, multiple blogs/news annoucements and the most hilarious graph to ever exist in the history of EVE play.

Throw in the most ISK in kills/deaths records, and goddamn. I am pretty smug.


But really. The true reward is to dunk on Stoffer. If there is one things goons love, it's trolling goons. Even Ex-goons.

CCP gets press, we get our capital back, EVE gets another hilarious footnote in history. Everyone won here. We just won less than we woulda liked.

Liam Mirren wrote:
Goon tears best tears.

Does not compute...

Bienator II wrote:
this kind of market/LP payout/whatever anomalies should have been detected by CCP long before anyone admited the exploit.

this was basically a best case scenario, a small group of people creates an exceptional LP payout anomaly. If something changes by factor 1000 repeatedly every light should blink at the monitoring tools.

you are monitoring FW, aren't you?

If they weren't before, they certainly are now.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Dramaticus
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#115 - 2012-06-28 17:50:46 UTC
Aryth wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:
Mme Pinkerton wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:
What we said was that this could be done in such a way that lead to an artificial disparity (albeit one created by our own systems) between the real value of an item and the number we were calculating value based upon to magically die over and over again to gain another currency.

Inquiring minds want to know how you determine the "real value" of an item.


It's in the blog. There's the current cost you pay for an item and there's the rolling average of the item's value. LP gain was tied to the long term average cost which is calculated by us. By causing disparity in the two values, whether on purpose or if it happens naturally, you can be in a position where you can print LP (corrected :)) by just buying things and shooting yourself.

The destruction of items to harvest LP is the main issue here. The manipulation of the average cost in and of itself is not at this point in time considered problematic. It's merely how much that can be used to amplify the damage caused by the destruction.


I hope when you guys do the redesign, using it as a matter convertor is still possible. I felt it was the most interesting part of this mechanic in the long run. It will provide some creative ways to run manips on item prices as well as create artificial scarcity for items if you are willing to put ISK behind it.

If you think permageddon is bad, wait until you see what we can do with a matter converter.


This was unironically a better market correction tool than anything else CCP has tried.

The 'do-nothing' member of the GoonSwarm Economic Warfare Cabal

The edge is REALLY hard to see at times but it DOES exist and in this case we were looking at a situation where a new feature created for all of our customers was being virtually curbstomped by five of them

Pipa Porto
#116 - 2012-06-28 17:52:37 UTC
CCP Sreegs wrote:

Yeah and what I'm trying to get at is that I didn't compare how we felt with handling this decision based on past decisions others might have made. We looked at the situation and did what we felt was the right thing for the game as a whole, so I'm not really prepared to discuss x vs. y because we didn't ever discuss it internally and these decisions aren't made solo.


Fair enough. I hope you're having a good long conversation about how to fix Forex markets to keep them from being manipulated.

It would be spectacular to see CCP be the first Gaming company win the Nobel Prize for Economics.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#117 - 2012-06-28 17:55:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Weaselior
By the way, if I were you I might fix the ibis price (141k last I checked). I can't think of a way to abuse it (it's too big to blow up lots of them) but given it's free, once someone does boy will it be hilarious.

(I wasn't ever going to use that no matter what was or was not kosher because given it's free im pretty sure i would wind up banned :v:)

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Aryth
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#118 - 2012-06-28 17:57:04 UTC
Dramaticus wrote:
Aryth wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:
Mme Pinkerton wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:
What we said was that this could be done in such a way that lead to an artificial disparity (albeit one created by our own systems) between the real value of an item and the number we were calculating value based upon to magically die over and over again to gain another currency.

Inquiring minds want to know how you determine the "real value" of an item.


It's in the blog. There's the current cost you pay for an item and there's the rolling average of the item's value. LP gain was tied to the long term average cost which is calculated by us. By causing disparity in the two values, whether on purpose or if it happens naturally, you can be in a position where you can print LP (corrected :)) by just buying things and shooting yourself.

The destruction of items to harvest LP is the main issue here. The manipulation of the average cost in and of itself is not at this point in time considered problematic. It's merely how much that can be used to amplify the damage caused by the destruction.


I hope when you guys do the redesign, using it as a matter convertor is still possible. I felt it was the most interesting part of this mechanic in the long run. It will provide some creative ways to run manips on item prices as well as create artificial scarcity for items if you are willing to put ISK behind it.

If you think permageddon is bad, wait until you see what we can do with a matter converter.


This was unironically a better market correction tool than anything else CCP has tried.


The mechanic can be used for good. You can fix imbalances in the market that have existed for years from past oversights using this to cash into LP. It wouldn't be profitable, but it would provide liqudity and the ability for players to fix/manip markets if they are willing to take huge risks and capital hits. I am not saying this as a theoretical. I already have a plan and item in mind.

It would be a pretty cool mechanic going foward (after it's fixed of course) if it could still be used in this way. It opens up a lot of really fun market possbilities.

Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

Creator of Burn Jita

Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.

Mme Pinkerton
#119 - 2012-06-28 17:57:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Mme Pinkerton
CCP Sreegs wrote:
Mme Pinkerton wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:
What we said was that this could be done in such a way that lead to an artificial disparity (albeit one created by our own systems) between the real value of an item and the number we were calculating value based upon to magically die over and over again to gain another currency.

Inquiring minds want to know how you determine the "real value" of an item.


It's in the blog. There's the current cost you pay for an item and there's the rolling average of the item's value.

You are already mixing concepts of value.

You really want to tell me that the cost at which you have acquired an item determines its "real" value but in the same breath you tell me that the rolling average of past successful trades is a measure of value.
What if I propose that the highest buy order is the true measure of value as that's the only dependable measure of how much other people value this item right now?

Anyways, I think your answer is a weak cop-out (in the best case a sign of your own confusion).

I think you should re-examine if you truly think that value is determined by any price because I suspect that you don't (because no matter which price you choose, it can always be manipulated - and you seem to assume that a "real value" which cannot be manipulated exists).

So tell me about your idea of market-independent value and I will probably tear it to pieces - after all there are good reasons for basically everyone (except for some neo-Marxists) giving up on (objective) value as a concept that exists independent of price at some point in the early 20th century.

edit: and no, I'm not splitting hairs. "Value" and "utility" are the concepts which form the very basis for most economic thought - yet my general impression is that an amazing number of people base their arguments off some modified labor theory of value and a cardinal concept of utility (both of which have obvious shortcomings and are prone to logical inconsistencies).
Aryth
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#120 - 2012-06-28 17:59:08 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
CCP Sreegs wrote:

Yeah and what I'm trying to get at is that I didn't compare how we felt with handling this decision based on past decisions others might have made. We looked at the situation and did what we felt was the right thing for the game as a whole, so I'm not really prepared to discuss x vs. y because we didn't ever discuss it internally and these decisions aren't made solo.


Fair enough. I hope you're having a good long conversation about how to fix Forex markets to keep them from being manipulated.

It would be spectacular to see CCP be the first Gaming company win the Nobel Prize for Economics.


I pitched a possible solution. We spent days theorycrafting a fix that preserves the system without making it gameable to a degree you are profiting on the conversion. You might still profit on the market manip, but not the conversion itself. This might be an acceptable solution to CCP, who knows. I hope they don't gut it though.

Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

Creator of Burn Jita

Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.