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Please Provide Facts, not suppositions, that Eve Economy Broken

Author
Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
#21 - 2012-03-09 20:06:15 UTC
Fredfredbug4 wrote:
All of the sinks in the game combined are almost nothing to stop inflation. Some pilots simply don't get podded that often and don't need to clone themselves so much. Insurance cost practically nothing. Platinum insurance on some of the most expensive ships in the game is considered pocket change to many.

The cause is that hundreds maybe thousands of people at a time are constantly running incursions making billions of ISK for little risk. Every month billions of ISK are spontaneously created out of nowhere to pay incursion runners.

Look, PLEX cost roughly 250 mil each before Incursions. Now, they are over 500 mil each. Yet some people claim that has nothing to do with ISK being shat out by CONCORD.

Although to be fair, the EVE economy is superior to other MMO economies. Seriously runescape? Your most expensive item is a freaking paper hat?


Guess you have difficulty reading, or maybe english is your 2nd language.
Numbers please.
Facts, please.

Not rants.
Hartmann Pitts
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#22 - 2012-03-09 20:15:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Hartmann Pitts
@CCP_Diagoras has been putting up some interesting statistics.

Here's information on the faucets:

Month of February:
Sell-to-NPC from Wormhole items - 10.43 tn
Incursion Rewards - 8.57 tn
Missions - 2.47 mission; 2.37 tn time = 4.84 tn
Insurance Payouts - 3.37 - 1.62 (payout to purchase) = 1.75 tn +
NPC bounties - 32.1 Tn

TOTAL: 57.69 tn

Total purchased from NPCs = 13 tn (so, without including all the sinks hat drops it down to 44.69 tn)

Assuming 500,000 active accounts (10% rule, in prime time MMOs see about 10% of people online; 50,000 people online means about 500,000 active accounts), that means there was a 89.4 million isk added for every active account in the game last month. This does NOT include ships/mods exploding, taxes, clones, ammo expenditures.

As a reference for total economic activity: total market transaction 297.4 tn; contracts 42.6 tn (340 tn)


I admit this is a rough number, but 89.4 million isk per account for a month (not even including all the sinks) is not a lot. Especially when anyone with decent skills can generate that much in an hour if they so choose.

I find it really hard to accept that isk faucets are extreme or even problematic, especially since wealth accumulation (either stuff sitting in your wallets or in your hangers) does not circulate through a banking or investment system and contribute to "currency velocity".
Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
#23 - 2012-03-09 20:21:37 UTC
Hartmann Pitts wrote:
@CCP_Diagoras has been putting up some interesting statistics.

Here's information on the faucets:

Month of February:
Sell-to-NPC from Wormhole items - 10.43 tn
Incursion Rewards - 8.57 tn
Missions - 2.47 mission; 2.37 tn time = 4.84 tn
Insurance Payouts - 3.37 - 1.62 (payout to purchase) = 1.75 tn +
NPC bounties - 32.1 Tn

TOTAL: 57.69 tn

Total purchased from NPCs = 13 tn (so, without including all the sinks hat drops it down to 44.69 tn)

Assuming 500,000 active accounts (10% rule, in prime time MMOs see about 10% of people online; 50,000 people online means about 500,000 active accounts), that means there was a 89.4 million isk added for every active account in the game last month. This does NOT include ships/mods exploding, taxes, clones, ammo expenditures.

As a reference for total economic activity: total market transaction 297.4 tn; contracts 42.6 tn (340 tn)


I admit this is a rough number, but 89.4 million isk per account for a month (not even including all the sinks) is not a lot. Especially when anyone with decent skills can generate that much in an hour if they so choose.

I find it really hard to accept that isk faucets are extreme or even problematic, especially since wealth accumulation (either stuff sitting in your wallets or in your hangers) does not circulate through a banking or investment system and contribute to "currency velocity".


My god!

Someone who finally understand that numbers and facts are superior to hyperbole.

Thank you for posting a cogent and concise analysis.
Adunh Slavy
#24 - 2012-03-09 20:31:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
tl;dr - If the amount of ISK entering the Eve economy outpaces the productive output of the Eve economy, prices will go up - more people will stop generating ISK and go do something industrial. ... this is how it should work, but there are some artificial constructs that distort normal behaviors.



First thing one has to do to understand the Eve economy is dismiss the notion that ISK is anything at all like real world fiat money. RL fiat notes are backed by debt. Eve fiat notes are not backed by debt. Eve ISK takes time and effort to produce. It can not be printed, (unless of course someone were to find an exploit.) Although ISK is a fiat money, it is not redeemable and it is money because CCP has made it easy to use as money, it functions and behaves more like a commodity money than a fiat debt money.

Next thing to do is get a grasp of what inflation is versus what its symptoms are. The word "inflation" has more than one use. One use discusses the amount of something, and another use speaks to symptoms. Most people are familiar with the usage that describes symptoms, "the general increase in prices." from your Econ 101 text books. The other usage is an verb to describe a behavior of the monetary base. Imagine all the money as a balloon. When there is more money, the balloon -Inflates-. It increases, an increase in the monetary base.

Symptoms of inflation are price increases, price increases are not the cause of price increases. How much more money is in the system - the rate at which it changes relative to the overall productive capacity of the system as a whole - is what causes inflationary or deflationary price changes.

If the amount of production is fixed, but the supply of money increases, the prices will go up. More money chasing around the same amount of stuff - the relative value of the money goes down. Now, if productivity increases at a rate faster than the inflation of the money supply, prices will go down. More stuff being chased around by less money - the relative value of money goes up.

In Eve, we generally notice that, as new players enter the game, they not only can generate more ISK, they also become more productive on the industrial side of the game. That means that each new player has the potential to generate equally ISK and productivity, keeping relative values somewhat in balance.

A couple of other things that are a check on price increases in Eve are that ISK generating activities are also goods (production) generating activities. Salvage, minerals, modules. No player has to produce these things. This keeps those prices lower than they other wise would be if they could only be sourced from activities that do not also generate ISK. (To me this is bad, but there are merits to it as well as price stability in some sectors of the economy can attest.)

There are also quite a few things in Eve that are sold and redeemed at a fixed price, skill books, rents, tags, some LP items, etc. This makes pricing of some items immune to changes in the money supply.

Now is all of this good or bad for Eve? It depends on your perspective. If fewer things were sourced from shooting rats, the prices of those things would go up. This would encourage some people to stop shooting rats and instead go produce those things. This would add more diversity to the game and provide players more options. It would mean that for a time some prices would go up, but since there would also be less ISK entering the economy, because those people choose to do something else, prices would again find stability at a new equilibrium. No longer based upon false price caps and homogenization of activity, but more inline with what the monetary base were signaling.

As to the OP wanting numbers, good luck. CCP does not release comprehensive numbers with enough regularity or enough detail, to be very useful. If you have five year charts of prices of raw materials, certain things are easy to see. But do not expect anyone with such data to just hand it over. This is after all, Eve.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Ottersmacker
Genos Occidere
HYDRA RELOADED
#25 - 2012-03-09 20:46:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Ottersmacker
Great post above and correct overall, but ISK is in fact very much like modern fiat money of a country that has monetary sovereignty. It is backed by the fact that some goods (e.g seeded BPO) and services (e.g broker fee) come from spending ISK to a sink, similar to taxing as a sink irl. You can look at it as being printed on demand through ratting etc as a job guarantee, and everyone earning bounties as public sector employees basically.

i just locked an open door.. strange, yet symbolically compelling.

Hartmann Pitts
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#26 - 2012-03-09 21:01:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Hartmann Pitts
Fredfredbug4 wrote:
Look, PLEX cost roughly 250 mil each before Incursions. Now, they are over 500 mil each. Yet some people claim that has nothing to do with ISK being shat out by CONCORD.


PLEX Volume and Cost Graph

Look at the price from March 2010 to November 2011, you see a flat line in PLEX availability. Look at the start int he price rise in March 2011 until now, a flat line in PLEX availability has led to a steady increase in price.

The supply of PLEXes is very closely tied to the price.


Instead of Incursions being the cause, you would almost have an easier time convincing me of some fairy tale Rich Russian Oligarch who funded this alliance by buying PLEX with his own cash. His leaving the game would result in the complete and utter collapse of that alliance overnight.

Although it might not make a big difference to you, this guy leaving the game would mean a vastly decreased supply of PLEX in the game.

And, if that happened, CCP might be motivated to find ways of increasing the supply of PLEX into the game, things like offering discounts on bulk purchases or something.

But, hey, just a fairy tale. Nothing like that has happened in Eve in the last few months. So, keep raging about Incursions.
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#27 - 2012-03-09 21:17:53 UTC
Cipher Jones wrote:
Valei Khurelem wrote:
The idea behind inflation in real life is that it is created by printing more money than what the currency is actually worth, fiat currency is supposed to be representative of the value of something and ISK is a fiat currency. In real life fiat currency was originally used as a receipt to get gold and silver from banks which stored it all for customers. ISK currently is representing nothing because it is virtual and the virtual items it is being used with can also be 'spawned' out of nothing, there are no hard caps on anything that CCP creates in EVE.

Therefore I would always argue that the whole market in EVE is inflationary, this is why when you get new features added like incursions which generate more ISK you get a spike in prices which is easy to spot. The problem here is that people are just nitpicking like in real life and not looking at the bigger picture.

The problem isn't with the game features, it's with the game itself and the way it's designed, all MMORPGs that try to mimic real life markets are the same, I would say most of those statistics you have there are made up too, hope my explanation helped some but that's the way I see it.

TLDR: Both items of value and ISK can be spawned out of nothing and that is causing the whole market to be inflationary


Because in real life gold and silver have REAL value.

And that's why there was never a global depression when we used the gold standard.

Im going to go smoke some pot now, and use the pages of my history book roll the joint. I can just use wikipedia now like everyone else. [sic]








There were plenty of global depressions before fiat economies were created. GOLD STANDARD IS GOOD IS A BUNCH OF LIES TOLD BY LIEING LIARS THAT LIE

An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#28 - 2012-03-09 21:27:55 UTC
Fredfredbug4 wrote:
All of the sinks in the game combined are almost nothing to stop inflation. Some pilots simply don't get podded that often and don't need to clone themselves so much. Insurance cost practically nothing. Platinum insurance on some of the most expensive ships in the game is considered pocket change to many.

The cause is that hundreds maybe thousands of people at a time are constantly running incursions making billions of ISK for little risk. Every month billions of ISK are spontaneously created out of nowhere to pay incursion runners.

Look, PLEX cost roughly 250 mil each before Incursions. Now, they are over 500 mil each. Yet some people claim that has nothing to do with ISK being shat out by CONCORD.

Although to be fair, the EVE economy is superior to other MMO economies. Seriously runescape? Your most expensive item is a freaking paper hat?



sOME Inflation is always better then any deflation... Reason why 12% inflation isn't that bad in Eve is because no one ever should live on their retirement savings IT FORCES THEM TO KEEP ON PLAYING & EARNING NOT SITTING ON THEIR ASSES LETTING SKILLS GO UP WHILE DOING NOTHING
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Valei Khurelem
#29 - 2012-03-09 21:35:22 UTC
Quote:
sOME Inflation is always better then any deflation... Reason why 12% inflation isn't that bad in Eve is because no one ever should live on their retirement savings IT FORCES THEM TO KEEP ON PLAYING & EARNING NOT SITTING ON THEIR ASSES LETTING SKILLS GO UP WHILE DOING NOTHING


I take it you're not in favour of pensions in real life then?

"don't get us wrong, we don't want to screw new players, on the contrary. The core problem here is that tech 1 frigates and cruisers should be appealing enough to be viable platforms in both PvE and PvP."   - CCP Ytterbium

Adunh Slavy
#30 - 2012-03-09 21:46:25 UTC
Ottersmacker wrote:
Great post above and correct overall, but ISK is in fact very much like modern fiat money of a country that has monetary sovereignty. It is backed by the fact that some goods (e.g seeded BPO) and services (e.g broker fee) come from spending ISK to a sink, similar to taxing as a sink irl. You can look at it as being printed on demand through ratting etc as a job guarantee, and everyone earning bounties as public sector employees basically.



But it is not printed on demand, someone has to go out and get it. Someone has to expend time and effort, generate labor, to produce ISK. ISK represents labor expended, work done in the past. Fiat debt money represents labor yet to be done, work, time and effort in the future. This is a significant difference. Although ISK and Federal Reserve notes are money, because an authority makes it so, (fiat - let it be so), one is a money based on past labor, and one is a money based on future labor. This gives ISK different characteristics than the money we are used to dealing with in the real world.

As for the sovereignty, public sector, tax/sink statements, no offense intended, that's all a bit of loose sophistry to me, so will ignore it as it has no bearing on what is being discussed.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Gogela
Epic Ganking Time
CODE.
#31 - 2012-03-09 21:55:50 UTC
I see problems in the economy too, but I don't care personally because they don't really have much of an impact on me. If inflation, for example, gets out of control, the first people to feel the burn are going to be people drawing a fixed income. Specifically, the welfare state known as mission running won't be making enough to afford their ships anymore. Anyone who actually rides the market might not even notice. Sure their purchasing power per ISK will go down, but they will be making proportionally more selling minerals or ships or whatever. Market players really can't complain. Miners won't notice either, because just as ISK inflates so do the prices on what they are mining. People running sanctums or ratting will get hurt a bit, because their bounties will be worth less proportionally, but the rat loot that drops will inflate in value along with anything else.

Really, the only players isk inflation hurts are the carebears that only play against NPCs. ...and who cares about them anyway?

Not me my friend.

Not me.

Signatures should be used responsibly...

DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#32 - 2012-03-09 21:56:54 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
Valei Khurelem wrote:
Quote:
sOME Inflation is always better then any deflation... Reason why 12% inflation isn't that bad in Eve is because no one ever should live on their retirement savings IT FORCES THEM TO KEEP ON PLAYING & EARNING NOT SITTING ON THEIR ASSES LETTING SKILLS GO UP WHILE DOING NOTHING


I take it you're not in favour of pensions in real life then?


I AM NOT IN FAVOR OF PENSIONS IN EVE (or other MMO's) AT ALL
That is why 12% inflation in a MMO is a better thing then any deflation
Tell me how pensions in this game would be good? Sorry but Eve is not RL
You planing on retiring in Eve & sit on your butt??? To bad old man I wanna force you outta your POS rocking chair in hi sec to make more iskies
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Ottersmacker
Genos Occidere
HYDRA RELOADED
#33 - 2012-03-09 22:05:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Ottersmacker
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Someone has to expend time and effort, generate labor, to produce ISK. ISK represents labor expended, work done in the past. Fiat debt money represents labor yet to be done, work, time and effort in the future.

That's why I compared it to a job guarantee, or "employer of last resort" if you want to call that (i dislike the term). If you can't get isk otherwise, you can go and shoot rats at a bad isk/hr (and you want to get some, if you want to say upgrade your clone.. it's the closest thing to a compulsory tax by the issuer of currency in EVE imo).
Federal reserve notes represent the ability to pay taxes in them, ISK represents the ability to pay for clones, broker fees, blueprints etc that come from the currency issuer if you will. This is the only inherent value they have.

i just locked an open door.. strange, yet symbolically compelling.

baltec1
Bat Country
The Initiative.
#34 - 2012-03-09 22:06:42 UTC
This morning the price of trit was 0.03 isk away from hitting 5 isk per unit and all minerals are rising. The sell price of a drake has risen by 10 million in the last 3-4 months.

Inflation is now a problem and it started not long after incursions were added. We simply have too much isk entering the system and not enough exiting.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#35 - 2012-03-09 22:08:05 UTC
Valei Khurelem
#36 - 2012-03-09 22:14:29 UTC
Quote:


There were plenty of global depressions before fiat economies were created. GOLD STANDARD IS GOOD IS A BUNCH OF LIES TOLD BY LIEING LIARS THAT LIE


There's depressions and then there's a free market, learn the difference, in a free market civilisations and currencies compete and fall all the time but no one is pulling the strings behind so it's a lot less destructive.

"don't get us wrong, we don't want to screw new players, on the contrary. The core problem here is that tech 1 frigates and cruisers should be appealing enough to be viable platforms in both PvE and PvP."   - CCP Ytterbium

OfBalance
Caldari State
#37 - 2012-03-09 22:41:07 UTC
Ottersmacker wrote:
(lol gold)


This.
Corina Jarr
en Welle Shipping Inc.
#38 - 2012-03-09 22:43:26 UTC
Doesn't the EVE economy come broken, as money is getting made every second by mission runner sand ratters and such.
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#39 - 2012-03-09 23:10:18 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
This morning the price of trit was 0.03 isk away from hitting 5 isk per unit and all minerals are rising. The sell price of a drake has risen by 10 million in the last 3-4 months.

Inflation is now a problem and it started not long after incursions were added. We simply have too much isk entering the system and not enough exiting.


Incorrect the inflation began before Incursions. Right now a even more pressing reason why you are seeing the single item (TRIT) increase in price is almost certainly due tothe mass miner bot bans. Singling out Incursions inflation is like Repulicans blaming blacks on welfare MOMs for a crappy economy due to rise in government expendatures, its rather insignificant $$$ number but is highly controversial due to the soical aspects.
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#40 - 2012-03-09 23:19:01 UTC
Valei Khurelem wrote:
Quote:


There were plenty of global depressions before fiat economies were created. GOLD STANDARD IS GOOD IS A BUNCH OF LIES TOLD BY LIEING LIARS THAT LIE


There's depressions and then there's a free market, learn the difference, in a free market civilisations and currencies compete and fall all the time but no one is pulling the strings behind so it's a lot less destructive.


Depressions come part &parcel with free markets that is why market regulations are necessary to make sure it does not run completely amuck with monopolies and other nefarius manipulations which cause excessive overheating & freezing. With freedom comes responsibility and the market by itself has no consciousness
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'