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SOMER Blink - Microlotteries that Finish in Minutes! 1 QUADRILLION ISK Won!

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Malcolm Shinhwa
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#2081 - 2013-10-23 15:05:43 UTC
Jori McKie wrote:
Well i guess SOMER will have a hard time soon. CCP will have no other choice to stop the
-> buy GTC via SOMER and get bonus credits for blink

nosygamer
http://nosygamer.blogspot.com/2013/10/raffles-and-rmt.html

DNSBlack
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=287241&find=unread


http://nerdsoliloquy.blogspot.com/2013/10/ccp-games-legitimizes-real-money-trading.html?spref=tw

This too, but I see no evidence of CCP doing anything about it. Apparently some people's side of the sandbox gets a few more shovels and buckets than the rest of us commoners.

[i]"The purpose of fighting is to win. There is no possible victory in defense. The sword is more important than the shield and skill is more important than either. The final weapon is the brain. All else is supplemental[/i]."
Estery
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#2082 - 2013-10-23 17:40:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Estery
I have one question. I win 3 Promo Blink in week+-. First and second was contracted and nothing more. But if I win last Promo Blink (Sleipnir) i have 2 contracts. The first gave me Sleipnir and second was ''Want to gift'' for ...Sleipnir again. What does that mean? Trying for someone clicks through? I'm really does not make sense.
Sorry for my English

EDIT: The probable answer: Other players who also play.
Cyno Fluffer
AirHogs
Hogs Collective
#2083 - 2013-10-23 22:29:35 UTC
Hey I love blink, and I have been playing LOTS of promo blinks (15k tickets :)... but I'm getting really pissed... seems that either blink is rigged with shill players... or they are allowing bots... cause all you have to do is watch a promo blink run, ANYTIME of day, and see these two (and many other players) show up OVER and OVER and OVER in the exact same positions...

They appear FIRST before anyone else... anyone else noticing them??

Adam Rez
DES Vaille

They drop into position #1-6 in almost EVERY promo... if you gonna shill, at least spend a few minutes to program your bots better.
JusFooling Around
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#2084 - 2013-10-23 23:27:56 UTC
Estery wrote:
I have one question. I win 3 Promo Blink in week+-. First and second was contracted and nothing more. But if I win last Promo Blink (Sleipnir) i have 2 contracts. The first gave me Sleipnir and second was ''Want to gift'' for ...Sleipnir again. What does that mean? Trying for someone clicks through? I'm really does not make sense.
Sorry for my English

EDIT: The probable answer: Other players who also play.


Look at the contracts carefully. Scammers are very active with Blink Promo players. You should be getting a contract which requires zero blink from you to claim winnings. Any contracts that seem to be offering you a blink prize but wants any amount ISK from youi should be petitioned as an impersonation. Sometimes the word Blink will have no L or two small cases Ls (Bink or Biink).

If you have accepted a bogus contract from an impersonator, petition it and CCP will return your ISK as impersonation is against CCP rules .

These same bogus names keep reappearing after the scammer gets the impersonation account banned. Not sure why Blink just doesn't keep on the watch and make alts with the most often used impersonations and take them out of the mix. It also makes one wonder if getting an account banned by CCP makes any difference at all.

Congratulations and good luck.
Ona Bender
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#2085 - 2013-10-24 06:02:22 UTC
Cyno Fluffer wrote:
... anyone else noticing them??


Oh yes.
Nanatoa
#2086 - 2013-10-26 01:21:42 UTC
Nanatoa wrote:
Nanatoa wrote:
Last week I contacted Somerset Mahm ingame about this, I received a non-reply ("[If you win] I will arrange for you to talk to CCP Navigator directly" - which is not what I asked for at all). So far Somerset Mahm has not responded to my reply to her message. Is this the trustworthy and reliable service CCP Navigator praised?


I'm very patient, but can I get an indication of when I will be receiving a reaction to this problem? I see Somer posting here, but I still have no reply here or by evemail.


It's great that SOMER Blink gave away 800B for nothing at EVE Vegas - given that huge number what's the problem with dealing with my 16B exactly? Surely SOMER Blink is stretching their trusty and reliable reputation with their continued silence on this matter?

"Stay the course, we have done this many times before." - (CCP) Hilmar, June 2011
Cayell
Steamhouse Enemy Engagement Division
#2087 - 2013-10-26 09:27:54 UTC
Cyno Fluffer wrote:
Hey I love blink, and I have been playing LOTS of promo blinks (15k tickets :)... but I'm getting really pissed... seems that either blink is rigged with shill players... or they are allowing bots... cause all you have to do is watch a promo blink run, ANYTIME of day, and see these two (and many other players) show up OVER and OVER and OVER in the exact same positions...

They appear FIRST before anyone else... anyone else noticing them??

Adam Rez
DES Vaille

They drop into position #1-6 in almost EVERY promo... if you gonna shill, at least spend a few minutes to program your bots better.



This is not difficult to do. During the last celebration I got the same ticket on practically every promo in a 48hr period.

There are scripts out there that will monitor the Blink page and automatically grab the first available ticket (or the closest ticket to a chosen number). Blink tends to be pretty good at detecting these (indeed, if you check the source code of the page you'll find the "Stop using automation!" section), but just like with CCP there's always going a few that manage to slip through the net.
RangerGord
Rothschild's Sewage and Septic Sucking Services
The Possum Lodge
#2088 - 2013-10-27 15:30:25 UTC
Silly question, and I can't be the only one...

I've been on Blink for a while, originally put some money (something like 100m or something small), and then liked it and dropped 1b into Blink. Since then I've just been using what I've earned in Blink to keep rolling, occasionally cashing something out if my surplus gets high enough. But today when I clicked for the 1.25Q gift I got an interesting msg:

"Not enough ISK deposited. To open a gift this celebration, you must deposit another 3M."

So it seems we are now required to constantly deposit new ISK if you want to claim any gifts? Did this requirement change since the last one? I even tried winning something and then converting it to Blink credit, no dice :(
Timberlake
Valhala Before Vanish
#2089 - 2013-10-27 15:38:08 UTC
50% of ticket = 50% chance for win no ?

NOT for SOmer blink. SOMER LOTTERIES ARE REALLLLY STRANGE....

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/7727/qz1a.jpg.

And sometimes people win 3-4 Promo on a day lol GTFO keep your ISK
Cayell
Steamhouse Enemy Engagement Division
#2090 - 2013-10-27 18:37:41 UTC
Timberlake wrote:
50% of ticket = 50% chance for win no ?

NOT for SOmer blink. SOMER LOTTERIES ARE REALLLLY STRANGE....

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/7727/qz1a.jpg.


50% chance of winning does not mean that you're guaranteed to win half of the time.

When you buy half of the tickets for a blink, you have a 50% chance of winning.
If you buy half of the tickets on the next blink, you still only have a 50% chance of winning.
Even if you go through a hundred blinks, buying half the tickets and never winning (as unlikely as that is), your 101st blink would still only have a 50% chance of winning.

National Lottery scratchcards have a 1 in 4 chance of being a winner - but anybody who buys four and thinks that they're guaranteed to win at least once has a gross misunderstanding of chance.
Timberlake
Valhala Before Vanish
#2091 - 2013-10-27 19:35:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Timberlake
This is the chance rules :

1/(2^n)

N=number of play (only if you put 50% tickets)

So :

1 blink :

1/2 = 0.5
0.5*100 = 50% for this probability
Litteral : There is 50% to happen (loose 1 time)

2 blinks :

1/2*2= 0.25
0.25*100 = 25%
Litteral : There is 25% to happen (loose 2 times consecutive)

3 blinks :

1/2*2*2=0.125
0.125*100= 12.5%
Litteral : There is 12.5% to happen (loose 3 times consecutive)

12 Blinks :

1/2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2=0,000244140625
0,000244140625*100= 0,0244140625%
Litteral : There is 0.024% to happen (loose 12 times consecutive)

So I'm very unlucky ? Or Somer can change the chance ?

I really don't know
Cayell
Steamhouse Enemy Engagement Division
#2092 - 2013-10-27 20:02:11 UTC
Timberlake wrote:
This is the chance rules :

1/(2^n)

N=number of play (only if you put 50% tickets)

So :

1 blink :

1/2 = 0.5
0.5*100 = 50% for this probability
Litteral : There is 50% to happen (loose 1 time)

2 blinks :

1/2*2= 0.25
0.25*100 = 25%
Litteral : There is 25% to happen (loose 2 times consecutive)

3 blinks :

1/2*2*2=0.125
0.125*100= 12.5%
Litteral : There is 12.5% to happen (loose 3 times consecutive)

12 Blinks :

1/2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2=0,000244140625
0,000244140625*100= 0,0244140625%
Litteral : There is 0.024% to happen (loose 12 times consecutive)

So I'm very unlucky ? Or Somer can change the chance ?

I really don't know



What you've written there is a perfect example of Gambler's Fallacy - the idea that the probability of winning on a blink is in any way affected by the results of previous blinks.

If you flip a coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, it doesn't change the chances of the 10th flip. At all. There is still a 50% chance of either result.
Inora Aknaria
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#2093 - 2013-10-27 23:02:41 UTC
Cayell wrote:
Timberlake wrote:
This is the chance rules :

1/(2^n)

N=number of play (only if you put 50% tickets)

So :

1 blink :

1/2 = 0.5
0.5*100 = 50% for this probability
Litteral : There is 50% to happen (loose 1 time)

2 blinks :

1/2*2= 0.25
0.25*100 = 25%
Litteral : There is 25% to happen (loose 2 times consecutive)

3 blinks :

1/2*2*2=0.125
0.125*100= 12.5%
Litteral : There is 12.5% to happen (loose 3 times consecutive)

12 Blinks :

1/2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2=0,000244140625
0,000244140625*100= 0,0244140625%
Litteral : There is 0.024% to happen (loose 12 times consecutive)

So I'm very unlucky ? Or Somer can change the chance ?

I really don't know



What you've written there is a perfect example of Gambler's Fallacy - the idea that the probability of winning on a blink is in any way affected by the results of previous blinks.

If you flip a coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, it doesn't change the chances of the 10th flip. At all. There is still a 50% chance of either result.


You are right that if you flip a fair coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, the 10th flip still has a 50/50 chance of being tails. But personally if I flipped a coin 9 times I would start wondering if it was a fair coin. To figure out that I would have to see what the chance of flipping a fair coin 9 times and coming up with tails every time was. 1/512 = .195%. If I kept flipping it and getting tails eventually I would have flipped the coin 12 times in a row. That has a 1 in 4,096 chance in happening (P=.00024). That means I could be 99.9% certain that the coin I'm flipping isn't a fair coin at all.
Lic Skjem
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#2094 - 2013-10-28 00:32:49 UTC
Inora Aknaria wrote:
Cayell wrote:
Timberlake wrote:
This is the chance rules :

1/(2^n)

N=number of play (only if you put 50% tickets)

So :

1 blink :

1/2 = 0.5
0.5*100 = 50% for this probability
Litteral : There is 50% to happen (loose 1 time)

2 blinks :

1/2*2= 0.25
0.25*100 = 25%
Litteral : There is 25% to happen (loose 2 times consecutive)

3 blinks :

1/2*2*2=0.125
0.125*100= 12.5%
Litteral : There is 12.5% to happen (loose 3 times consecutive)

12 Blinks :

1/2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2=0,000244140625
0,000244140625*100= 0,0244140625%
Litteral : There is 0.024% to happen (loose 12 times consecutive)

So I'm very unlucky ? Or Somer can change the chance ?

I really don't know



What you've written there is a perfect example of Gambler's Fallacy - the idea that the probability of winning on a blink is in any way affected by the results of previous blinks.

If you flip a coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, it doesn't change the chances of the 10th flip. At all. There is still a 50% chance of either result.


You are right that if you flip a fair coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, the 10th flip still has a 50/50 chance of being tails. But personally if I flipped a coin 9 times I would start wondering if it was a fair coin. To figure out that I would have to see what the chance of flipping a fair coin 9 times and coming up with tails every time was. 1/512 = .195%. If I kept flipping it and getting tails eventually I would have flipped the coin 12 times in a row. That has a 1 in 4,096 chance in happening (P=.00024). That means I could be 99.9% certain that the coin I'm flipping isn't a fair coin at all.



Unless, of course, you were using a third-party random number generator. Then you'd be 100% certain that you were, actually, flipping a fair coin, and you had just experienced your very first long-tail situation.
Ona Bender
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#2095 - 2013-10-28 02:46:48 UTC
Seriously...the guy who doesn't understand how odds work, and the quoting of ridiculously long posts... Same as anyone complaining about the high rollers winning more often. Anyone got anything real? I know someone does.
Blodhgarm Dethahal
8 Sins of Man
Stray Dogs.
#2096 - 2013-10-28 02:57:32 UTC
Timberlake wrote:
50% of ticket = 50% chance for win no ?

NOT for SOmer blink. SOMER LOTTERIES ARE REALLLLY STRANGE....

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/7727/qz1a.jpg.

And sometimes people win 3-4 Promo on a day lol GTFO keep your ISK


Do you have an Infinite Improbibility Drive nearby?
raven666wings
Cyber Chaos Crew
#2097 - 2013-10-28 05:43:01 UTC  |  Edited by: raven666wings
I throw 1 Quadrillion isk at the ho's in the pleasure domes in Amamake.
JusFooling Around
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#2098 - 2013-10-28 06:56:49 UTC  |  Edited by: JusFooling Around
Cyno Fluffer wrote:
Hey I love blink, and I have been playing LOTS of promo blinks (15k tickets :)... but I'm getting really pissed... seems that either blink is rigged with shill players... or they are allowing bots... cause all you have to do is watch a promo blink run, ANYTIME of day, and see these two (and many other players) show up OVER and OVER and OVER in the exact same positions...

They appear FIRST before anyone else... anyone else noticing them??

Adam Rez
DES Vaille

They drop into position #1-6 in almost EVERY promo... if you gonna shill, at least spend a few minutes to program your bots better.




You say you are talking about promo blinks and then you are talking about promos. Could you be a little more specific? Nothing you have described is particularly difficult to do in a Blink and buying more than one ticket in a promo is impossible.

And if the 6 tickets are in an 8 ticket Blink, the player has 75% of the tickets sold, just the same as if 6 different players bought those same 6 tickets, those 6 tickets represent 75% of the of the chances to win. Buying 6 tickets is not difficult to do and is a regular practice of many players.

Could you explain what leads you to believe that such regular tactics would require shills or bots?
Thank you.
JusFooling Around
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#2099 - 2013-10-28 07:02:18 UTC
raven666wings wrote:
I throw 1 Quadrillion isk at the ho's in the pleasure domes in Amamake.



Thats nice
Seven Koskanaiken
Shadow Legions.
Insidious.
#2100 - 2013-10-28 11:57:07 UTC
Inora Aknaria wrote:
Cayell wrote:
Timberlake wrote:
This is the chance rules :

1/(2^n)

N=number of play (only if you put 50% tickets)

So :

1 blink :

1/2 = 0.5
0.5*100 = 50% for this probability
Litteral : There is 50% to happen (loose 1 time)

2 blinks :

1/2*2= 0.25
0.25*100 = 25%
Litteral : There is 25% to happen (loose 2 times consecutive)

3 blinks :

1/2*2*2=0.125
0.125*100= 12.5%
Litteral : There is 12.5% to happen (loose 3 times consecutive)

12 Blinks :

1/2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2=0,000244140625
0,000244140625*100= 0,0244140625%
Litteral : There is 0.024% to happen (loose 12 times consecutive)

So I'm very unlucky ? Or Somer can change the chance ?

I really don't know



What you've written there is a perfect example of Gambler's Fallacy - the idea that the probability of winning on a blink is in any way affected by the results of previous blinks.

If you flip a coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, it doesn't change the chances of the 10th flip. At all. There is still a 50% chance of either result.


You are right that if you flip a fair coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, the 10th flip still has a 50/50 chance of being tails. But personally if I flipped a coin 9 times I would start wondering if it was a fair coin. To figure out that I would have to see what the chance of flipping a fair coin 9 times and coming up with tails every time was. 1/512 = .195%. If I kept flipping it and getting tails eventually I would have flipped the coin 12 times in a row. That has a 1 in 4,096 chance in happening (P=.00024). That means I could be 99.9% certain that the coin I'm flipping isn't a fair coin at all.



The probability of flipping a coin and getting TTTTTTTTT is exactly the same as the probability of getting HTHTTHTTT.