These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

EVE General Discussion

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

Can we get rid of CSM after the recent PLEX insider trading fiasco?

First post
Author
Previous Topic Next Topic
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#341 - 2017-04-06 23:13:16 UTC
Cade Windstalker wrote:



This is the graph that produced.

Note how the Average Price goes up and down more or less inversely with the number of orders and the volume of PLEX being bought and sold on the market.

This shows that Supply and Demand are working normally, this whole wonky theory that Supply hasn't changed is bunk, and a drop in supply is *very clearly* driving the spike in prices.

This is why we graph things and check our assumptions instead of just eyeballing some tiny little volume lines and deciding they look about the same.


Interesting. When the price is higher the volume is lower. In fact, it looks as if the price movements are primarily supply driven unless I'm mistaken. For there to be an increase in price and a decrease in volume traded, suggests an inward shift of the supply function. Looks like there might be a lag effect as well.

If my conjecture is right, then I am having an even harder time fitting this into any sort of conspiracy to make ISK out of this.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
#342 - 2017-04-07 00:26:54 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Cade Windstalker wrote:



This is the graph that produced.

Note how the Average Price goes up and down more or less inversely with the number of orders and the volume of PLEX being bought and sold on the market.

This shows that Supply and Demand are working normally, this whole wonky theory that Supply hasn't changed is bunk, and a drop in supply is *very clearly* driving the spike in prices.

This is why we graph things and check our assumptions instead of just eyeballing some tiny little volume lines and deciding they look about the same.


Interesting. When the price is higher the volume is lower. In fact, it looks as if the price movements are primarily supply driven unless I'm mistaken. For there to be an increase in price and a decrease in volume traded, suggests an inward shift of the supply function. Looks like there might be a lag effect as well.

If my conjecture is right, then I am having an even harder time fitting this into any sort of conspiracy to make ISK out of this.


Yeah, the inverse relationship between price and volume is really interesting because it's so consistent over time. I couldn't quite connect the dots on why that would be. If the price is generally a reflection of supply, then it makes some degree of sense to me. I've been assuming that it had something to do with the total amount of PLEX on the market being player driven (through real money purchases). But this is an area that I don't have the economic chops to properly visualize.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#343 - 2017-04-07 00:35:20 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Zarek Kree wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Cade Windstalker wrote:



This is the graph that produced.

Note how the Average Price goes up and down more or less inversely with the number of orders and the volume of PLEX being bought and sold on the market.

This shows that Supply and Demand are working normally, this whole wonky theory that Supply hasn't changed is bunk, and a drop in supply is *very clearly* driving the spike in prices.

This is why we graph things and check our assumptions instead of just eyeballing some tiny little volume lines and deciding they look about the same.


Interesting. When the price is higher the volume is lower. In fact, it looks as if the price movements are primarily supply driven unless I'm mistaken. For there to be an increase in price and a decrease in volume traded, suggests an inward shift of the supply function. Looks like there might be a lag effect as well.

If my conjecture is right, then I am having an even harder time fitting this into any sort of conspiracy to make ISK out of this.


Yeah, the inverse relationship between price and volume is really interesting because it's so consistent over time. I couldn't quite connect the dots on why that would be. If the price is generally a reflection of supply, then it makes some degree of sense to me. I've been assuming that it had something to do with the total amount of PLEX on the market being player driven (through real money purchases). But this is an area that I don't have the economic chops to properly visualize.


The supply curve for PLEX with RL money is the price. So PLEX quantity "out of game" is demand driven at any given price. Which would then translate into the in game market being largely supply driven. I linked two graphs here. Let me know if I messed up the links.

Edit: So the fluctuations we see in Cade's graph appear to be due to changes in supply. Price goes up along with a decrease in quantity suggesting a shift in supply. This could be due to an OOG shift in demand (inwards--i.e. less demand for PLEX) at all price levels so we get less PLEX showing up on the market in game. Similarly during a sale, we see the supply increase and the price decrease.

So recent PLEX price movements suggest supply side reasons, not demand. This completely guts the OP's assertion, which I quote,

Quote:
CSM knew about it. Their friends who got the info were buying PLEX for few weeks now, so now they can make dank ISK selling all those overpriced PLEX now or when the prices will be even higher.


Game over for that "theory".

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Mr Mieyli
Doomheim
#344 - 2017-04-07 01:09:39 UTC
It is quite interesting and in a way obvious that plex price would be linked to supply considering the in game demand for plex would be fairly stable. Most will only buy their one plex a month to keep their sub rolling over month to month. If you look at the whole plex chain player A will buy a plex with out of game money based on their desire for quick isk, player B will buy that plex with isk, based on their desire to play for free.

My theory is players have less need to buy plex for isk injections as their wallets are pretty fat anyway, leaving less supply of plex and more carebears clamouring over the plex that remain. The relative quiet in null may also contribute to the low plex supply.

This post brought to you by CCP's alpha forum alt initiative. Playing the eve forums has never come cheaper.