EVE General Discussion

Okay the fact that this idea is still holding on to dear life is mildly insulting to the intelligence of this entire community. Eve is supposed to be a game of people who are *good* at economics and rational thinking.

First off, you still have no evidence of any leak, or of any kind of insider trading. As half this thread has pointed out to you the announced PLEX changes will push prices down and you've been able to point to nothing that's actually driving prices up, let alone a connection beyond a vague one in time to the current rise in prices.

As for the actual economics, I've pulled some data from our dear Fuzzysteve's site going back to October of last year, before the Ascension patch hit and the price dropped in the first place. This seems like a good time to reitterate that patches tend to send the price of PLEX running off in one direction or another as people react to the patch.

I took that data, pasted it into a spreadsheet, and calculated a 7 day rolling average for volume, Average Price, and number of orders. I then normalized the price down to thousands of ISK so it would display nicely on the same graph with the quantities and number of orders.


This is the graph that produced.

Note how the Average Price goes up and down more or less inversely with the number of orders and the volume of PLEX being bought and sold on the market.

This shows that Supply and Demand are working normally, this whole wonky theory that Supply hasn't changed is bunk, and a drop in supply is *very clearly* driving the spike in prices.

This is why we graph things and check our assumptions instead of just eyeballing some tiny little volume lines and deciding they look about the same.

I was wondering that too.

Well, I must have talked some sense into the conspirators or something, looks like they might be abandoning their grand scheme of cornering the PLEX market or whatever it was, prices appear to have stopped going up and are down about 6 million ISK from last time I checked.

[/sarcasm]

I keep saying, like how voting mechanisms are supposed to work....

I find your finger pointing to be even more suspicious. As they say, "Admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations." I always get suspicious when people make accusations without evidence of any kind. You're clearly trying to create a smokescreen to hide something.

Info may have nonetheless been leaked, contributing in some extent to the timing and magnitude of the spike.

For example if info had been leaked to me, and me alone, you would have seen almost zero effect on the plex market, cos I lack capital to act much on the info. But nonetheless, there would have been an info leak.

Not an issue of belief.
The issue is its a real and constant risk regarding all inside info CCP shares with CSM.
No need for constant investigation, just oversight and vigilance.

Its a rare person that has never revealed a secret whilst drunk, unwary or for personal benefit.

I hope so.

Trust no one in EVE, that includes CSMs, even moreso.

Had info been leaked to you or me, we also would have sold PLEX, driving the price down - not bought it up. That's the logical disconnect in the leak theory that you're simply refusing to accept. Prices did spike, but there wasn't anything in the announcement that would have led anyone to believe that they would.

Stock splits in the stock market (which is basically what this is) demonstrate that such a theory is misguided. No broker, analyst or financial advisor recommends buying stock before a split. They also don't recommend against it because they have decades worth of data proving that it makes no difference either way. There has never been a real life example of insider trading based on prior knowledge of a stock split announcement because that information alone is largely useless.

Not to mention that any perceived advantage would be negated by the other elements announced by CCP (Aurum conversion and PLEX Lockers) which will increase the supply of PLEX on the market, which will drive prices down.