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Dev blog: Politics by Other Means: Sovereignty Phase Two

First post First post First post
Author
Arrendis
TK Corp
#3541 - 2015-03-08 23:18:43 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
Godfrey Silvarna wrote:
Welcome to Wormholes.
Quite an interesting point when you look at it. Why bother taking a small bit of sov in the big boys sandpit when you can lock yourself away in wspace and get 99% of the same end result.

I guess it's not mindless enough for the drones nor ego-pumping enough for the dictators.


Actually, I lived in w-space for a few years. It's fun, but it's not what I'm after. I like the big fights. I've found the happiest I've been in this game is winding the logi of a fleet through the middle of a massive slugfest involving 4 enemy fleets and a broken grid in 10% tidi. I like it when there's a challenge, and I have to be on top of my game (because in tidi, every delay in changing my mind or evaluating things is magnified. It feels like you have all the time in the world, but that's all a lie).

You don't get that kind of thing in w-space. Not really. Sure, the big toys come out, but it's never the same. But I'd hardly call it 'ego-pumping' or myself one of 'the dictators'. I'm a fleet guy, that's pretty much it. I want to do things where skill, and judgment, and the ability to keep calm under pressure can make a difference. Small gang stuff never feels like that to me - it always feels like the initial encounter determines everything. Someone screws up, everyone's toast. In a big fleet action, if the FC screws up, yeah, we're gonna take a pounding - but if I'm on my game, I can minimize how bad that's going to be. S'just my thing, I guess. I'm weird. I love the tidi.
Eli Apol
Definitely a nullsec alt
#3542 - 2015-03-08 23:25:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Eli Apol
Arrendis wrote:
Eli Apol wrote:
Godfrey Silvarna wrote:
Welcome to Wormholes.
Quite an interesting point when you look at it. Why bother taking a small bit of sov in the big boys sandpit when you can lock yourself away in wspace and get 99% of the same end result.

I guess it's not mindless enough for the drones nor ego-pumping enough for the dictators.


Actually, I lived in w-space for a few years. It's fun, but it's not what I'm after. I like the big fights. I've found the happiest I've been in this game is winding the logi of a fleet through the middle of a massive slugfest involving 4 enemy fleets and a broken grid in 10% tidi. I like it when there's a challenge, and I have to be on top of my game (because in tidi, every delay in changing my mind or evaluating things is magnified. It feels like you have all the time in the world, but that's all a lie).

You don't get that kind of thing in w-space. Not really. Sure, the big toys come out, but it's never the same. But I'd hardly call it 'ego-pumping' or myself one of 'the dictators'. I'm a fleet guy, that's pretty much it. I want to do things where skill, and judgment, and the ability to keep calm under pressure can make a difference. Small gang stuff never feels like that to me - it always feels like the initial encounter determines everything. Someone screws up, everyone's toast. In a big fleet action, if the FC screws up, yeah, we're gonna take a pounding - but if I'm on my game, I can minimize how bad that's going to be. S'just my thing, I guess. I'm weird. I love the tidi.

True I apologise for my snark - but when I first moved into wspace with my first corp it was our way of 'owning' a small part of eve and far more feasible than trying to do the same in null without having to rent / swear allegiance to a larger group.

So I guess my snarkless point is: What's in it for a small group to move to null instead of a little C-hole?

edit: I guess there's restrictions for manu/indy people wanting to do T2 production / bash rocks more safely, I guess that might be the draw to null instead of WH?

but what would I know, I'm just a salvager

Zakks
CSR NAVY
Citizen's Star Republic
#3543 - 2015-03-08 23:30:54 UTC
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Zakks wrote:

You really should be ashamed.


But I'm really not.

Before you quit, can I have your stuff?


And just how much stuff can I have? Just now looking at something bigger than a destroyer.
You must fly around a pretty big ship for those cojones.
Sgt Ocker
What Corp is it
#3544 - 2015-03-08 23:40:06 UTC
Alavaria Fera wrote:
davet517 wrote:
Quote:
Maybe you should have listened to the Metashow last night, where two of the leaders of the "apex stakeholders" raved about the principles of the new system, and talked about the bits they liked (you'll be surprised). They want a shake-up too, but not just any shake-up for the sake of it, they want one that is not utterly insane with large gaping holes that will be exploited to high heaven, oddly enough, by us.

I'm watching the suggestions that are being lobbied for out of TMC and elsewhere. Limit the ships that can contest sov. Narrow the primetime window. Whatever you do don't touch the safety net that is local. In short, make it less of a PITA to hold a big coalition together. No up and coming entity is going to be able to hold sov for long while the big coalitions stand. They have to bleed out before something can take their place. It's understandable that the prospect of them bleeding out is unattractive to those who built them, but I think the future of the game requires it.

As expected, an automatic grr coalitions response. You're in good company though, ccp seems to be thinking the same way

ccp's 0.0 vision must crush any other 0.0 dream, it is the only way to progess

Alvaria; That response is a little narrow minded for you, I thought you better than that.

Unless nulsec triples in size, coalitions need to lose some of the overwhelming power they have.

Coalitions don't need to be disbanded or broken up, they simply need to change their focus from military might to EG; trade agreements and travel routes.
That would create content in nulsec without CCP having to change anything. If an alliance can't hold what it has on its own strengths, it really doesn't deserve to have it.


Take the military might of "blues" out of nulsec it would become a great conflict driven place to live.

My opinions are mine.

  If you don't like them or disagree with me that's OK.- - - - - - Just don't bother Hating - I don't care

It really is getting harder and harder to justify $23 a month for each sub.

Arrendis
TK Corp
#3545 - 2015-03-08 23:47:29 UTC
Eli Apol wrote:
True I apologise for my snark - but when I first moved into wspace with my first corp it was our way of 'owning' a small part of eve and far more feasible than trying to do the same in null without having to rent / swear allegiance to a larger group.


Pfft. If we couldn't be snarky, we'd have to go mad. ;)

Quote:

So I guess my snarkless point is: What's in it for a small group to move to null instead of a little C-hole?


That's the $64,000 question, now isn't it? 'Why should I want to hold sov?'

I mean, clearly, it's not the money. If you want to maximize your money, there are better ways - C5-6 w-space, faction warfare, etc, all of which don't require you pay CONCORD just to live where you live. Are those things always better money? Probably not, but they're almost certainly better on a cost/benefit analysis. FW has multiple stations in most of their systems, you don't have to worry about upkeep, the very thing that makes you money is what give you control of the system, etc etc. W-space, you've got a dangerous environment, but if you're smart and alert, you can pretty well control access to your space in a way null residents can't, and when you do go to do your space-job, the money is definitely better in terms of isk/man-hour.

So why do it?

Right now, it's basically just to plant a flag, to say 'we built this'. As it is, though... what've you really built? Deploying a station egg's a big deal for some, for others... it's an ALOD. IHUBs are important, but they're important as a means of making it harder to take your stuff, mostly, and making a bit of improvement on what's already there.

So what, really, do the empire-builders build? Transportation networks were a thing... but the Phoebe changes crushed those - they're very much a 'emergencies only' thing now. They used to be a seriously quality-of-life improvement. People talk about 'player-built stargates', well... that's what jumpbridges are, in most regards. So, if they put in player-built stargates, and someone builds a route that allows people to go across space in a way that's convenient... will that be too much force projection?

Or is it only too much because we do it? Because the blocs do it?

And if there's an arbitrary 'you're doing too well', then... why bother? Why do something if you're not going to be allowed to succeed? Why advertise the ability to do something if it's going to be a lie, because the company's going to take your money while you work toward your goal, but make damned sure that if you actually build something that stands above the competition, you're going to get beaten down?

Don't get me wrong, we don't want null to be static. Static is boring as hell. That's why a lot of us are for the concepts in play here, we're just not sure of the exact execution of those concepts. 4 hours a day? We've got people around the world, why should we get enthused about 'hey, half our members, you're going to be bored' combined with 'hey, other half of our members, you're not going to have any time to do your own thing'?

Giving the system variety allows the people doing their own thing - as long as they're contributing, as long as they are part of making that space a living, populated environment - a way to be valuable in the protection of the system. And systems that aren't used are more and more vulnerable.

Putting in more things that function as solid quality-of-life improvements for the people who live in the space they own provides them a reason to live there, and a reason to own their space instead of just living there.

Imagine if you could live in w-space, and have Local work. For you, because it's your hole. Someone comes in, you see them. Maybe they don't see you. But to get this ability, you have to claim that system, and you have to defend it. You would, wouldn't you?
Sgt Ocker
What Corp is it
#3546 - 2015-03-08 23:53:07 UTC
Zakks wrote:
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Zakks wrote:

You really should be ashamed.


But I'm really not.

Before you quit, can I have your stuff?


And just how much stuff can I have? Just now looking at something bigger than a destroyer.
You must fly around a pretty big ship for those *******.

Zakks, you have started eve at a great time. Quitting now, just as things are about to get a major shake up is of course your choice. If you will take some advice from someone who has been around for a while - Renew that subscription for a few months and see what happens.

Sov changes in the current proposed form aren't close to the right way to go and hopefully Devs will rework it, a lot, before it goes live.

I'm keeping 2 accounts active in the hopes CCP will get it close to right. If they do manage to listen to players and actually make sov a viable thing, I'll end up resubbing my other accounts.

My opinions are mine.

  If you don't like them or disagree with me that's OK.- - - - - - Just don't bother Hating - I don't care

It really is getting harder and harder to justify $23 a month for each sub.

Vidicar Madorso
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#3547 - 2015-03-09 00:03:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Vidicar Madorso
I think that attacking SOV in any form should be considered a serious endeavor by the aggressor and not just an attack on SOV for kicks and giggles. I am concerned about the burnout that will inevitably occur with line members and FC's in the primetime window. I believe that this scenario can be partially managed by War Dec's.

The current War Dec mechanism vexes me because it really isnt a true war declaration but rather a just a mechanism to initiate hostilities in HS. I dont propose to change the current war dec mechanism (for all you Jita to Amarr pipe campers) but I think it should be renamed to "Writ of Hostility" (or something else) but it would not extend to attacks on sov.

Then implement a new War Declaration mechanism which is truly what it should be. A Declaration of War.

For a cost more than the Current War Declarations (possibly based on member size) you can open hostilities against another Alliance or Corporation sov structures. This War Dec could be performed at the Alliance OR Corp level and against a specific Alliance OR Corp. War Dec's made against a Corp would allow the Corps Alliance members to join in the war but only if they also pay the War Dec (or perhaps some form of Support Dec) cost at a reduced cost. The specific details would have to be worked out obviously, but this mechanic would:
- have a 24 (48?) hour warning of impending attack
- prevent drive-by SOV attacks thus allowing primetime line members and FC's some opportunity to perhaps rest between wars or do some farming.
- have the loss of a SOV system create a Casus Belli for the loser of the system so that they could retaliate on the aggressor in the future at a much reduced War Dec cost.
- Costs based on the number of members in the Alliance or Corp (Defenders need never spend more than the value of the Aggressor if the Defender is larger than the Aggressor). This requires the attackers or defenders to make choices on how much force (in Corps and Alliances) they feel they need to apply to obtain the objective.

It seems to me that this could open up some interesting dynamics such Corp vrs Corp wars (without drawing in the entire Alliance), or having some Corps in a different Alliance providing support to the targeted (or attacking) Corp to deny (or achieve) specific objectives. And possibly internal drama in the alliance if the defending Corp is not well liked.

What I like about it is that it uses an existing mechanism in the form of War Dec's, and just enhances it. It also mirrors our own planet where if a country is attacked then other countries can support them or not at their choice. I recognize that there is probably lots of holes and pitfalls in this idea but I'm sure some of you can flesh out the idea more.
Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#3548 - 2015-03-09 00:12:51 UTC
Dracvlad wrote:
Alavaria Fera wrote:
davet517 wrote:
Quote:
Maybe you should have listened to the Metashow last night, where two of the leaders of the "apex stakeholders" raved about the principles of the new system, and talked about the bits they liked (you'll be surprised). They want a shake-up too, but not just any shake-up for the sake of it, they want one that is not utterly insane with large gaping holes that will be exploited to high heaven, oddly enough, by us.

I'm watching the suggestions that are being lobbied for out of TMC and elsewhere. Limit the ships that can contest sov. Narrow the primetime window. Whatever you do don't touch the safety net that is local. In short, make it less of a PITA to hold a big coalition together. No up and coming entity is going to be able to hold sov for long while the big coalitions stand. They have to bleed out before something can take their place. It's understandable that the prospect of them bleeding out is unattractive to those who built them, but I think the future of the game requires it.

As expected, an automatic grr coalitions response. You're in good company though, ccp seems to be thinking the same way

ccp's 0.0 vision must crush any other 0.0 dream, it is the only way to progess


I think there is no issue with coalitions like yours still existing, I personally would hate to see you guys fall as you bring in so much content, but what is needed is a vibrant small alliance battlefield, and please don't say low sec...


There are vibrant small alliance battlefields. They are called wormholes, low sec/faction warfare , High sec and NPC null.

In other words the entire rest of New Eden. Why people think every part of EVE must be the same is beyond me.
HarlyQ
harlyq syrokos investment station
#3549 - 2015-03-09 00:14:56 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
Dracvlad wrote:
Alavaria Fera wrote:
davet517 wrote:
Quote:
Maybe you should have listened to the Metashow last night, where two of the leaders of the "apex stakeholders" raved about the principles of the new system, and talked about the bits they liked (you'll be surprised). They want a shake-up too, but not just any shake-up for the sake of it, they want one that is not utterly insane with large gaping holes that will be exploited to high heaven, oddly enough, by us.

I'm watching the suggestions that are being lobbied for out of TMC and elsewhere. Limit the ships that can contest sov. Narrow the primetime window. Whatever you do don't touch the safety net that is local. In short, make it less of a PITA to hold a big coalition together. No up and coming entity is going to be able to hold sov for long while the big coalitions stand. They have to bleed out before something can take their place. It's understandable that the prospect of them bleeding out is unattractive to those who built them, but I think the future of the game requires it.

As expected, an automatic grr coalitions response. You're in good company though, ccp seems to be thinking the same way

ccp's 0.0 vision must crush any other 0.0 dream, it is the only way to progess


I think there is no issue with coalitions like yours still existing, I personally would hate to see you guys fall as you bring in so much content, but what is needed is a vibrant small alliance battlefield, and please don't say low sec...


There are vibrant small alliance battlefields. They are called wormholes, low sec/faction warfare , High sec and NPC null.

In other words the entire rest of New Eden. Why people think every part of EVE must be the same is beyond me.

Because most people are stupid.
Zakks
CSR NAVY
Citizen's Star Republic
#3550 - 2015-03-09 00:15:12 UTC
Sgt Ocker wrote:


Zakks, you have started eve at a great time. Quitting now, just as things are about to get a major shake up is of course your choice. If you will take some advice from someone who has been around for a while - Renew that subscription for a few months and see what happens.

Sov changes in the current proposed form aren't close to the right way to go and hopefully Devs will rework it, a lot, before it goes live.

I'm keeping 2 accounts active in the hopes CCP will get it close to right. If they do manage to listen to players and actually make sov a viable thing, I'll end up resubbing my other accounts.


Thanks, we'll see. There are some good folks in this game too it seems.
Best of luck to everyone with whatever changes.
Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#3551 - 2015-03-09 00:19:34 UTC
Duffyman wrote:

Never forget Malcanis Law:

"Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of 'new players', that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players."

Obviously if these changes go ahead as proposed, it'll be the current powers that will abuse it to hell. You'll see...


That's Malcanis' law. Jenn's law is "No matter how many times reality proves Malcanis' law is true, people, including professional game developers, will forget the past 11 seconds later, like big ass human shaped gold fish"

Still refining the wording of my law there, but you get the gist.
Sgt Ocker
What Corp is it
#3552 - 2015-03-09 00:20:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Sgt Ocker
Vidicar Madorso wrote:
I think that attacking SOV in any form should be considered a serious endeavor by the aggressor and not just an attack on SOV for kicks and giggles. I am concerned about the burnout that will inevitably occur with line members and FC's in the primetime window. I believe that this scenario can be partially managed by War Dec's.

The current War Dec mechanism vexes me because it really isnt a true war declaration but rather a just a mechanism to initiate hostilities in HS. I dont propose to change the current war dec mechanism (for all you Jita to Amarr pipe campers) but I think it should be renamed to "Writ of Hostility" (or something else).

Then implement a new War Declaration mechanism which is truly what it should be. A Declaration of War.

For a cost more than the Current War Declarations (possibly based on member size) you can open hostilities against another Alliance or Corporation sov structures. This War Dec could be performed at the Alliance OR Corp level and against a specific Alliance OR Corp. War Dec's made against a Corp would allow the Corps Alliance members to join in the war but only if they also pay the War Dec (or perhaps some form of Support Dec) cost at a reduced cost. The specific details would have to be worked out obviously, but this mechanic would:
- have a 24 (48?) hour warning of impending attack
- prevent drive-by SOV attacks thus allowing primetime line members and FC's some opportunity to perhaps rest between wars or do some farming.
- have the loss of a SOV system create a Casus Belli for the loser of the system so that they could retaliate on the aggressor in the future at a much reduced War Dec cost.
- Costs based on the number of members in the Alliance or Corp (Defenders need never spend more than the value of the Aggressor if the Defender is larger than the Aggressor). This requires the attackers or defenders to make choices on how much force (in Corps and Alliances) they feel they need to apply to obtain the objective.

It seems to me that this could open up some interesting dynamics such Corp vrs Corp wars (without drawing in the entire Alliance), or having some Corps in a different Alliance providing support to the targeted (or attacking) Corp to deny (or achieve) specific objectives. And possibly internal drama in the alliance if the defending Corp is not well liked.

What I like about it is that it uses an existing mechanism in the form of War Dec's, and just enhances it. It also mirrors our own planet where if a country is attacked then other countries can support them or not at their choice. I recognize that there is probably lots of holes and pitfalls in this idea but I'm sure some of you can flesh out the idea more.

Then you have the downside of such a system - Coalitions aren't going to allow someone to wardec one of their member groups without the whole coalition wardeccing them. 40,000 vs 1,000, so the 1,000 call in allies to even things up and we have exactly what we have now - Nothing to do.

Cost is not a limiting factor for large groups of players, they already have enough isk to last them years.

My opinions are mine.

  If you don't like them or disagree with me that's OK.- - - - - - Just don't bother Hating - I don't care

It really is getting harder and harder to justify $23 a month for each sub.

Vidicar Madorso
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#3553 - 2015-03-09 00:29:49 UTC
I'm not convinced. If an attacking Corp or small alliance has 50 members I think there will be some thought put into that decision. The defender will have to decide if they want to pay for 15000 members to defend the sov of one corp? Likely they will assign a specific set of Corps that is suitably sized to handle the threat. Perhaps 500 members. Either way it requires decisions to be made and CCP is very much in favor of players having to make decisions
HarlyQ
harlyq syrokos investment station
#3554 - 2015-03-09 00:51:30 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
Duffyman wrote:

Never forget Malcanis Law:

"Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of 'new players', that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players."

Obviously if these changes go ahead as proposed, it'll be the current powers that will abuse it to hell. You'll see...


That's Malcanis' law. Jenn's law is "No matter how many times reality proves Malcanis' law is true, people, including professional game developers, will forget the past 11 seconds later, like big ass human shaped gold fish"

Still refining the wording of my law there, but you get the gist.

You know self invented laws named after yourself is kinda sad please stop being a stupid person. Just say they are all being goldfish then you might get some traction with your stupid law. It's really stupid not sure if I made that clear.
Maddaxe Illat
Kerberos Inc.
#3555 - 2015-03-09 00:51:44 UTC
I would like to thank you CCP for giving me my life back because if the change go thought as is I will unsub all 18 account. I will do this because even thought you say that you have people in Null sec. You have know Idea how this game you make works. Sov dose need to change but not this way. The best this that could happen to this game would be for CCP Fozzie to be fired Because he must have stock in star citizen or elite dangerous. Because he doesn't want anyone to play eve anymore
HarlyQ
harlyq syrokos investment station
#3556 - 2015-03-09 00:55:58 UTC
Vidicar Madorso wrote:
I'm not convinced. If an attacking Corp or small alliance has 50 members I think there will be some thought put into that decision. The defender will have to decide if they want to pay for 15000 members to defend the sov of one corp? Likely they will assign a specific set of Corps that is suitably sized to handle the threat. Perhaps 500 members. Either way it requires decisions to be made and CCP is very much in favor of players having to make decisions

No they won't just assign similar sized corps to handle it. Use overwhelming force every time all the time then people will realize that you don't screw with them, since they always dunk whoever tries to fight them.
HarlyQ
harlyq syrokos investment station
#3557 - 2015-03-09 00:59:23 UTC
Maddaxe Illat wrote:
I would like to thank you CCP for giving me my life back because if the change go thought as is I will unsub all 18 account. I will do this because even thought you say that you have people in Null sec. You have know Idea how this game you make works. Sov dose need to change but not this way. The best this that could happen to this game would be for CCP Fozzie to be fired Because he must have stock in star citizen or elite dangerous. Because he doesn't want anyone to play eve anymore

Hey look a guy that can not evolve darwinism at its finest folks right here. So can I see what characters you are selling because I want to go from a 8 account setup to like 20 I like my alts we party hearty everynight. But seriously hit me up with a sale thread.
davet517
Raata Invicti
#3558 - 2015-03-09 01:05:11 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:


That's Malcanis' law. Jenn's law is "No matter how many times reality proves Malcanis' law is true, people, including professional game developers, will forget the past 11 seconds later, like big ass human shaped gold fish"


This is a self-fulfilling prophecy, a.k.a learned helplessness. If it really is checkmate - the old and rich have the game by the nuts on a downhill pull, it's time to call it. Hand out trophies to the dozen people who "won Eve", wipe the server, and we can all start out in high sec belts in our frigs again. Knowing how it turned out this time, they can use some 20-20 hindsight starting at about RMR and make some different choices.

I don't think we're there yet. Whatever they do, the "blue donut" has to go. I think these changes are a step in the right direction. Removing the local crutch would help too. Pulling high end moons into the new mechanic by making them iHub dependent would be a huge help too. Null needs to get a lot more dangerous, and dynamic.

Malcanis' law is not an immutable law of the universe, unless the bulk of the player base believes that it is. If they believe that there's nothing that they can do, and they believe that whatever change occurs will only benefit the oligarchs, then yes, it's true. These mechanics invite a change to that thinking, but they don't require it. It'll be up to the players.
Sgt Ocker
What Corp is it
#3559 - 2015-03-09 01:24:35 UTC
Vidicar Madorso wrote:
I'm not convinced. If an attacking Corp or small alliance has 50 members I think there will be some thought put into that decision. The defender will have to decide if they want to pay for 15000 members to defend the sov of one corp? Likely they will assign a specific set of Corps that is suitably sized to handle the threat. Perhaps 500 members. Either way it requires decisions to be made and CCP is very much in favor of players having to make decisions

Problem is though, they don't need to pay for a war dec, they can simply support them by going there and killing the attackers.

My opinions are mine.

  If you don't like them or disagree with me that's OK.- - - - - - Just don't bother Hating - I don't care

It really is getting harder and harder to justify $23 a month for each sub.

davet517
Raata Invicti
#3560 - 2015-03-09 01:32:18 UTC  |  Edited by: davet517
Arrendis wrote:


There will always be strength in numbers. There is literally nothing in these changes that even begins to threaten that. Mostly, what these changes might do is reduce our footprint, and reduce our sov bills.


That's what Cyvok thought. Maybe before your time. What threatens strength in numbers is losing the numbers. Strength in numbers feeds on itself. It's not hard to envision changes that would threaten numbers. They would be changes that make it more fun to attack a big coalition than it is to be in one. These changes certainly move in that direction.

Landing in power-bloc space with anything less than a super-cap blob looking to mess with their sov today is definitely un-fun. Unless you literally have trillions in resources that's a closed game. Constant harassment of it with sub-cap gangs? Definitely more fun.

If the people attacking the big blocs are having more fun than those who huddle together for strength in numbers within them, the numbers will start bleeding away. These mechanics make it more possible, but people still have to choose to do it. Can they be socially engineered not to? Probably, and I'm sure some folks are pretty smug in thinking that they can. We'll see.

In a game, not knowing what's going to happen is certainly more interesting than knowing what's going to happen.