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Plex Prices

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motie one
Secret Passage
#881 - 2015-10-01 18:47:49 UTC  |  Edited by: motie one
Teckos Pech wrote:
motie one wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
So you don't know.



Do you want n economics education? Or is it you think there is a simple answer to that question, the answer if you insist is it depends on when you look at it.

I could post 50 pages of text in a more detailed reply, but you probably want it in two words.(and besides you are not paying consultancy fees)

Middle length answer. Economic turmoil, until homeostasis is achieved. Because mechanisms do exist to make that achieveable, unlike a certain product we were meant to be discussing.


No, it is a very, very simple economic model. Simple models can sometimes be good in that they let you isolate certain economic phenomena. In statistics they use something similar as well, they will control for the variables they are not currently interested in. For example, if I want to see if there is a trend in seasonal data and its magnitude I'll control for the seasonality using dummy variables, or maybe a sine function, or even seasonal differencing.

In this case, I was hoping you'd see that the answer is 2. That the increase in the money supply has also influenced the exchange rate. Now that is not the only thing influencing exchange rates, but it is a factor.

So...why is the (implicit) exchange rate worsening with regards to ISK. How come a dollar allows people to buy larger and larger amounts of ISK?

Could it be the ISK entering into the in game economy? Could that be one reason there is an overall trend to the price of PLEX, the mechanism of translating RL money into ISK?

If the answer is yes, trying to screw over CCP from PLEX sales and stabilize the exchange that way is just foolishness on top of vanilla ignorance.

A better solution would be to reconsider something like NS income sources for the typical pilot. Having ISK magically appear in people's wallets for shooting NPC rats probably isn't the best thing. One suggestion is to allow for NS missions, maybe from Concord or something and ramp down rat bounties and grant LP which is and ISK sink.

No, this is not the only thing influence PLEX prices, but it could be one of them. Another thing is that CCP wants to sell more of them. They are a profit maximizing entity and PLEX sales are probably the most profitable item they sell on a per item basis. The suggestion that the players compete with CCP in terms of PLEX sales.... Just. Not. Going. To. Work. CCP is not going to cut its revenue stream and profits. They are not here to subsidize your game time. In fact, it works exactly the other way around. You subsidize CCP either directly via paying your subscription or indirectly by buying a PLEX for ISK that somebody else paid CCP for...and CCP keeps the game up and running. Turning that on its head simply will not work. Ever.

So...suffice it to say, I am not going to ever come to you to learn economics. You have completely turned things on their head and say, "There that will work," when in reality it simply wont. You are bad at making logical arguments, you are bad at economics, and as a result of those two bad things your ideas about PLEX are bad. Really bad.


Quote:
I really, really, really hope you are not so incredibly detached from reality to believe this would result in a direct relationship to the exchange rate?


So you did believe that!
Incredible!

That is why the simplistic arguments of the Pub, are never going to gain someone a job in anything that impacts the countries Economics. (God save us from political appointees.)


Pop quiz why has QE not destroyed the US dollar value.


Answers on a postcard to.
I cannot believe it's not Economics,
Address not found.
Lala land.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#882 - 2015-10-01 19:03:33 UTC
motie one wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
So you don't know.



Do you want n economics education? Or is it you think there is a simple answer to that question, the answer if you insist is it depends on when you look at it.

I could post 50 pages of text in a more detailed reply, but you probably want it in two words.(and besides you are not paying consultancy fees)

Middle length answer. Economic turmoil, until homeostasis is achieved. Because mechanisms do exist to make that achieveable, unlike a certain product we were meant to be discussing.

I really, really, really hope you are not so incredibly detached from reality to believe this would result in a direct relationship to the exchange rate?


Oh, and homeostasis is typically not used in economics. In economics the concept used is equilibrium.

Homeostasis, by contrast, refers usually to biological entities and how certain biological processes are kept relatively constant such as body temperature.

The difference is that in economics equilibrium is not constant. For example, using a simple supply and demand model, we could right the system down as,

S = s(P)
D = d(P,M)

Where P is the price and M is money.

Equilibrium occurs when S = D. However, if we change M we would have a new equilibrium point. In homeostasis you'd have a system that wants to return to its constant state...e.g. body temperature.

Some economists have used the term, e.g. Kenneth Boulding, but that is somewhat of a heterodox view.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
motie one
Secret Passage
#883 - 2015-10-01 19:09:37 UTC  |  Edited by: motie one
Teckos Pech wrote:
motie one wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
So you don't know.



Do you want n economics education? Or is it you think there is a simple answer to that question, the answer if you insist is it depends on when you look at it.

I could post 50 pages of text in a more detailed reply, but you probably want it in two words.(and besides you are not paying consultancy fees)

Middle length answer. Economic turmoil, until homeostasis is achieved. Because mechanisms do exist to make that achieveable, unlike a certain product we were meant to be discussing.

I really, really, really hope you are not so incredibly detached from reality to believe this would result in a direct relationship to the exchange rate?


Oh, and homeostasis is typically not used in economics. In economics the concept used is equilibrium.

Homeostasis, by contrast, refers usually to biological entities and how certain biological processes are kept relatively constant such as body temperature.

The difference is that in economics equilibrium is not constant. For example, using a simple supply and demand model, we could right the system down as,

S = s(P)
D = d(P,M)

Where P is the price and M is money.

Equilibrium occurs when S = D. However, if we change M we would have a new equilibrium point. In homeostasis you'd have a system that wants to return to its constant state...e.g. body temperature.

Some economists have used the term, e.g. Kenneth Boulding, but that is somewhat of a heterodox view.



Possibly you might wish to read the next page, It is a phrase often and commonly used in the real world economic community possibly not the one you are currently in.
And yes, that is exactly how it is used. Strategic economic commodities and reserve currencies returning to a steady state.

Which is why I used it to eliminate attempts at deliberate confusion.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#884 - 2015-10-01 19:28:52 UTC
motie one wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
motie one wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
So you don't know.



Do you want n economics education? Or is it you think there is a simple answer to that question, the answer if you insist is it depends on when you look at it.

I could post 50 pages of text in a more detailed reply, but you probably want it in two words.(and besides you are not paying consultancy fees)

Middle length answer. Economic turmoil, until homeostasis is achieved. Because mechanisms do exist to make that achieveable, unlike a certain product we were meant to be discussing.


No, it is a very, very simple economic model. Simple models can sometimes be good in that they let you isolate certain economic phenomena. In statistics they use something similar as well, they will control for the variables they are not currently interested in. For example, if I want to see if there is a trend in seasonal data and its magnitude I'll control for the seasonality using dummy variables, or maybe a sine function, or even seasonal differencing.

In this case, I was hoping you'd see that the answer is 2. That the increase in the money supply has also influenced the exchange rate. Now that is not the only thing influencing exchange rates, but it is a factor.

So...why is the (implicit) exchange rate worsening with regards to ISK. How come a dollar allows people to buy larger and larger amounts of ISK?

Could it be the ISK entering into the in game economy? Could that be one reason there is an overall trend to the price of PLEX, the mechanism of translating RL money into ISK?

If the answer is yes, trying to screw over CCP from PLEX sales and stabilize the exchange that way is just foolishness on top of vanilla ignorance.

A better solution would be to reconsider something like NS income sources for the typical pilot. Having ISK magically appear in people's wallets for shooting NPC rats probably isn't the best thing. One suggestion is to allow for NS missions, maybe from Concord or something and ramp down rat bounties and grant LP which is and ISK sink.

No, this is not the only thing influence PLEX prices, but it could be one of them. Another thing is that CCP wants to sell more of them. They are a profit maximizing entity and PLEX sales are probably the most profitable item they sell on a per item basis. The suggestion that the players compete with CCP in terms of PLEX sales.... Just. Not. Going. To. Work. CCP is not going to cut its revenue stream and profits. They are not here to subsidize your game time. In fact, it works exactly the other way around. You subsidize CCP either directly via paying your subscription or indirectly by buying a PLEX for ISK that somebody else paid CCP for...and CCP keeps the game up and running. Turning that on its head simply will not work. Ever.

So...suffice it to say, I am not going to ever come to you to learn economics. You have completely turned things on their head and say, "There that will work," when in reality it simply wont. You are bad at making logical arguments, you are bad at economics, and as a result of those two bad things your ideas about PLEX are bad. Really bad.


Quote:
I really, really, really hope you are not so incredibly detached from reality to believe this would result in a direct relationship to the exchange rate?


So you did believe that!
Incredible!

That is why the simplistic arguments of the Pub, are never going to gain someone a job in anything that impacts the countries Economics. (God save us from political appointees.)


Pop quiz why has QE not destroyed the US dollar value.


Answers on a postcard to.
I cannot believe it's not Economics,
Address not found.
Lala land.



You have it backwards. There is indeed an implicit exchange rate, you can deny it, but its pretty obvious that a PLEX, which costs $19.95 in the US will buy about 1.2 billion ISK. Or about 60.150 million ISK/dollar. v0v

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
motie one
Secret Passage
#885 - 2015-10-01 19:35:50 UTC

Just let it drop, you are starting to look really foolish now.
I am tired of even trying to get you to see beyond banalaties
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#886 - 2015-10-01 19:46:46 UTC
motie one wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
motie one wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
So you don't know.



Do you want n economics education? Or is it you think there is a simple answer to that question, the answer if you insist is it depends on when you look at it.

I could post 50 pages of text in a more detailed reply, but you probably want it in two words.(and besides you are not paying consultancy fees)

Middle length answer. Economic turmoil, until homeostasis is achieved. Because mechanisms do exist to make that achieveable, unlike a certain product we were meant to be discussing.

I really, really, really hope you are not so incredibly detached from reality to believe this would result in a direct relationship to the exchange rate?


Oh, and homeostasis is typically not used in economics. In economics the concept used is equilibrium.

Homeostasis, by contrast, refers usually to biological entities and how certain biological processes are kept relatively constant such as body temperature.

The difference is that in economics equilibrium is not constant. For example, using a simple supply and demand model, we could right the system down as,

S = s(P)
D = d(P,M)

Where P is the price and M is money.

Equilibrium occurs when S = D. However, if we change M we would have a new equilibrium point. In homeostasis you'd have a system that wants to return to its constant state...e.g. body temperature.

Some economists have used the term, e.g. Kenneth Boulding, but that is somewhat of a heterodox view.



Possibly you might wish to read the next page, It is a phrase often and commonly used in the real world economic community possibly not the one you are currently in.
And yes, that is exactly how it is used. Strategic economic commodities and reserve currencies returning to a steady state.

Which is why I used it to eliminate attempts at deliberate confusion.


No it isn't. It is used in "happiness" economics. The idea here is that departing from a current equilibrium often reduces a person's happiness as it entails a level of uncertainty and people tend not to like uncertainty.

For example, this working paper.

Abstract:
Quote:
The paper suggests that maintenance of a homeostatic equilibrium provides a rationale for many actions of economic agents. Homeostatic equilibrium has physical, economic, emotional, psychological and environmental dimensions. The characteristics of this equilibrium include feelings of safety, trust, connectedness with friends, family and community, and a predictable and welcoming social and work environment. Individuals generally make decisions that help them move toward and achieve this state of equilibrium. Departure from homeostasis reduces well being and stimulates agents to take actions that will return them to a state of homeostasis. This hypothesis is tested with probit analysis using sample responses from the four waves of the World Values Surveys conducted between 1980 and 2002. Results generally support the homeostasis hypothesis. Variables that reflect departure from homeostasis such as divorce and poor health are highly significant, pointing to a reduction in well being. Variables that reflect the importance of friends, family, a trusting social and work environment have significant impacts to raise well being.


I see nothing regarding "strategic economic commodities" or reserve currencies.

Looks like it is along the lines of cognitive and behavioral economics in the tradition of Kahneman and Tversky. I tend to agree with David Lavine that behavioral economics is not as impressive as it first appears.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
motie one
Secret Passage
#887 - 2015-10-01 19:51:11 UTC  |  Edited by: motie one
Not even going to go there, enjoy your research, however irrelevant.
Google is neither an education or an apprenticeship.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#888 - 2015-10-01 19:54:51 UTC
motie one wrote:
Not even going to go there, enjoy your research, however irrelevant.
Google is neither an education or an apprenticeship.


I wasn't using google, I was using IDEAS it is a search engine for economic papers and journal articles. Roll

https://ideas.repec.org/

Quote:
Welcome to the largest bibliographic database dedicated to Economics and available freely on the Internet. Over 1,800,000 items of research can be browsed or searched, and over 1,700,000 can be downloaded in full text!

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
motie one
Secret Passage
#889 - 2015-10-01 20:00:42 UTC  |  Edited by: motie one
Teckos Pech wrote:
motie one wrote:
Not even going to go there, enjoy your research, however irrelevant.
Google is neither an education or an apprenticeship.


I wasn't using google, I was using IDEAS it is a search engine for economic papers and journal articles. Roll

https://ideas.repec.org/

Quote:
Welcome to the largest bibliographic database dedicated to Economics and available freely on the Internet. Over 1,800,000 items of research can be browsed or searched, and over 1,700,000 can be downloaded in full text!



Quoting the freely available (and free) academic community, hardly reflects the economic community.
possibly you should access professional research and papers?
But carry on, you are not trying to convince me.
But hey, Its a hobby.
It's nice to have a hobby it doesn't need to have any value.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#890 - 2015-10-01 20:11:15 UTC
motie one wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
motie one wrote:
Not even going to go there, enjoy your research, however irrelevant.
Google is neither an education or an apprenticeship.


I wasn't using google, I was using IDEAS it is a search engine for economic papers and journal articles. Roll

https://ideas.repec.org/

Quote:
Welcome to the largest bibliographic database dedicated to Economics and available freely on the Internet. Over 1,800,000 items of research can be browsed or searched, and over 1,700,000 can be downloaded in full text!



Quoting the freely available (and free) academic community, hardly reflects the economic community.
possibly you should access professional research and papers?
But carry on, you are not trying to convince me.


No, the truth is I've been studying economics for almost 30 years, both formally and after leaving graduate school. I even work at a job where there lots of focus on things like marginal cost. So when you referenced homeostasis I went to the biggest economics database I know of to see what type of research in economics uses that term. It is not used for "strategic commodities" or the reserve currency (hint, there is one reserve currency right now). And currencies do not exhibit homeostasis. That is exchange rates are not constant.

Note I provide citations to actual papers and people...you just spout nonsense and display our ignorance in a stunning manner.

I've pointed out that CCP subsidizing your game time is stupid and will never happen. So, go ahead...have the last word. Roll

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
motie one
Secret Passage
#891 - 2015-10-01 20:15:52 UTC  |  Edited by: motie one
Teckos Pech wrote:
motie one wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
motie one wrote:
Not even going to go there, enjoy your research, however irrelevant.
Google is neither an education or an apprenticeship.


I wasn't using google, I was using IDEAS it is a search engine for economic papers and journal articles. Roll

https://ideas.repec.org/

Quote:
Welcome to the largest bibliographic database dedicated to Economics and available freely on the Internet. Over 1,800,000 items of research can be browsed or searched, and over 1,700,000 can be downloaded in full text!



Quoting the freely available (and free) academic community, hardly reflects the economic community.
possibly you should access professional research and papers?
But carry on, you are not trying to convince me.


No, the truth is I've been studying economics for almost 30 years, both formally and after leaving graduate school. I even work at a job where there lots of focus on things like marginal cost. So when you referenced homeostasis I went to the biggest economics database I know of to see what type of research in economics uses that term. It is not used for "strategic commodities" or the reserve currency (hint, there is one reserve currency right now). And currencies do not exhibit homeostasis. That is exchange rates are not constant.

Note I provide citations to actual papers and people...you just spout nonsense and display our ignorance in a stunning manner.

I've pointed out that CCP subsidizing your game time is stupid and will never happen. So, go ahead...have the last word. Roll


Carry on, possibly you should speak to people who know the way real world economies work.
And for your interest, The USD is only one of a number of reserve currencies, plenty of my friends in London Including some that work in the Bank of England, would take exception to the idea that Sterling is not a reserve currency, and a few Friends in frankfurt might disagree too. Of course the FED might wish otherwise, no matter how much in vain that is.

And Curriencies are not in homeostasis, they merely have pressure that act towards it in the long run. Clearly not the only pressure though.

But carry on, there are plenty of hobbies that are interesting, medicine is interesting too, but generally one wishes to consult with professionals.
voetius
Grundrisse
#892 - 2015-10-01 20:47:37 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:


Looks like it is along the lines of cognitive and behavioral economics in the tradition of Kahneman and Tversky. I tend to agree with David Lavine that behavioral economics is not as impressive as it first appears.


Without wishing to get to get involved with your bunfight with Motie I would just like to point out that homeostasis is not a term referred to by Kahnemann in Thinking, Fast and Slow (his extended commentary on the Kahnemann and Tversky work that includes their seminal papers as appendices) nor is it referred to by Taleb (who is heavily influenced by Kahnemann and Tversky) in The Black Swan, or Fooled By Randomness, or Antifragility. Nor by Nate Silver in The Signal and the Noise (another that was influenced by Kahnemann and Tversky).
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#893 - 2015-10-01 21:12:33 UTC
voetius wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:


Looks like it is along the lines of cognitive and behavioral economics in the tradition of Kahneman and Tversky. I tend to agree with David Lavine that behavioral economics is not as impressive as it first appears.


Without wishing to get to get involved with your bunfight with Motie I would just like to point out that homeostasis is not a term referred to by Kahnemann in Thinking, Fast and Slow (his extended commentary on the Kahnemann and Tversky work that includes their seminal papers as appendices) nor is it referred to by Taleb (who is heavily influenced by Kahnemann and Tversky) in The Black Swan, or Fooled By Randomness, or Antifragility. Nor by Nate Silver in The Signal and the Noise (another that was influenced by Kahnemann and Tversky).


Yeah, it isn't a term I've come across in the literature myself. Which is why I hit IDEAS to see if there is used at all. It is. When I looked at the references for that particular paper they did cite some other cognitive/behavioral economics research. I did find an older article on monetary theory that used the word, but it went nowhere really. The guy wrote one paper, and it did not appear to garner any citations...and I didn't want to shell out $10 to get access to the paper itself. It was in a good journal though, American Economic Review.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#894 - 2015-10-02 03:32:20 UTC
motie one wrote:
Carry on, possibly you should speak to people who know the way real world economies work.

Why? You've been speaking to people who know how the EVE economy works and it doesn't appear to have helped you at all.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#895 - 2015-10-02 04:52:53 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
1,174 Sell / 1,126 Buy atm

The combination of the CCP intervention at the end of last week and the ongoing PLEX sale appears to be having some effect. We've seen this before though and it will only be temporary.

I've already called the current stable price of plex at ~1.1B and I expect to see that rise to ~1.2B once these downward pressures have passed. It will be interesting to see if it falls bellow 1.1B this week, it will be a buying opportunity if it does.

1,129 Sell / 1,104 Buy atm

PLEX sale still going strong. Looking good to dip bellow 1.1B during the next few days. As with all previous PLEX sales, the price will bounce back up as soon as the sale is over, so when it goes below 1.1B you should be buying ready to cash in post sale.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#896 - 2015-10-02 05:41:23 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
motie one wrote:
Carry on, possibly you should speak to people who know the way real world economies work.

Why? You've been speaking to people who know how the EVE economy works and it doesn't appear to have helped you at all.


Ouch...just ouch. Lol

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
motie one
Secret Passage
#897 - 2015-10-02 07:03:05 UTC
Yeah, it is like being savaged by a sheep.
Drago Nace
Perkone
Caldari State
#898 - 2015-10-02 19:41:10 UTC
motie one wrote:
Yeah, it is like being savaged by a sheep.


You have obviously not seen this YouTube compilation:

Crazy Sheep Attacks Compilation



Sorry to interrupt... carry on.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#899 - 2015-10-03 01:09:02 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
1,174 Sell / 1,126 Buy atm

The combination of the CCP intervention at the end of last week and the ongoing PLEX sale appears to be having some effect. We've seen this before though and it will only be temporary.

I've already called the current stable price of plex at ~1.1B and I expect to see that rise to ~1.2B once these downward pressures have passed. It will be interesting to see if it falls bellow 1.1B this week, it will be a buying opportunity if it does.

1,129 Sell / 1,104 Buy atm

PLEX sale still going strong. Looking good to dip bellow 1.1B during the next few days. As with all previous PLEX sales, the price will bounce back up as soon as the sale is over, so when it goes below 1.1B you should be buying ready to cash in post sale.

1,110 Sell / 1,080 Buy atm

PLEX sale still going. Buy, buy, buy!
Bootneck
Doomheim
#900 - 2015-10-03 01:15:47 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
1,174 Sell / 1,126 Buy atm

The combination of the CCP intervention at the end of last week and the ongoing PLEX sale appears to be having some effect. We've seen this before though and it will only be temporary.

I've already called the current stable price of plex at ~1.1B and I expect to see that rise to ~1.2B once these downward pressures have passed. It will be interesting to see if it falls bellow 1.1B this week, it will be a buying opportunity if it does.

1,129 Sell / 1,104 Buy atm

PLEX sale still going strong. Looking good to dip bellow 1.1B during the next few days. As with all previous PLEX sales, the price will bounce back up as soon as the sale is over, so when it goes below 1.1B you should be buying ready to cash in post sale.

1,110 Sell / 1,080 Buy atm

PLEX sale still going. Buy, buy, buy!


Be funny if the 1,080 people with sell orders were the same 1,080 people with buy orders and there was only actually 30 genuine plex sellers beyond the 1,080 in a circlejerk of margin trading.

Greater fool theory etc.

There's no school like the old school and I've been expelled.