Market Discussions

I think you should close it, it's full of rubbish.

This thread reminds me of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wYtG7aQTHA

The final Michael Bay part summs it all.

What is clearly out of people's minds is the situation at the other side of plex.

A plex costs roughly from 15 to 20 USD, and roughly the same about euros, as of this moment euro is 1.12 usd.

That means the value is that for anyone in Euro zone, US and dollarized/euronized economies (countries which equates artificially to either by a fixed value). Despite both issuers of those currencies efforts on hideing it, from last year to today you have inflation of 12,5% roughly. That means playing EVE, for those who buy plex in those regions, is 12.5% more expensive, and in turn, the impact for them into buying. That alone is a natural driving force for making plex value ingame rise. And that factor has not affected directly the cost for those who buy plex ingame, so the market demands from these to cover the losses of those, driving the prices up naturally and beyond any ingame control.

But, should I remind you, mother russia, poland, turkey, south america, singapore, india, among the most consistent present people in EVE, and many others with smaller presences, lives in places with no direct ties to dollar or Euro.

Taking one of the less affected country examples, for me from 6 months to now, beyond the 12.5% natural inflation for euro/dollar, I must add the 120% increase value of either, dollar or euro, against my national currency, which makes EVE 135% more expensive to play if I were to pay plex in money. As many of euro/us people's dont get always aware, we outside the axis of ... erm ... forget it, do have networks and things for our own use distinct from those provided by World Wide Corporations, so Internet, website access, anything hosted or routed locally here, does not reflect that cost, but EVE does. That for itself make playing EVE disproportionally more expensive for us than it is for you guys on the axis. To put it in numbers, I used to pay the equivalent of 50 dollars for my Internet, and now I pay less than 25 dollars.

As many may realize, Russian, Polish, South Americans and "Asorted Asians" (sorry guys, no ofense, love ya) make up for a big fraction of players, and all of them are affected by the policy of promoting reacquisition of euro and dollars by its original issuers.

And that, alone, would be reason for a much bigger rise.

It fell back to ~1.12B Buy / ~1.15B Sell before starting to climb again. Now at ~1.17B Buy / ~1.2B Sell.

Prices tend to fall back on the weekends and rise during the week, so it could take another pounding during primetime.

Yes, I notice support levels have been put back in, by holders and speculators, though not in high numbers, the interesting point is whether the weekend gives some the opportunity to dump a few of their stock, to those orders, but not much there for people to move more than a few. Come Monday, GMT all hell might break loose, even a tiny push now will cause vast drops.

Anyone holding large stock is probably far to late to get out now, and even the most determined speculator will be unwilling to act like King canute, and put himself at great risk, only to be overwhelmed, by the inevitable direction of the market, for the benefit of his competition. Best to take their profit now and buy back in after the market restabilises.

I do agree, Exciting times.
Clearly we are at a tipping point where minimal effort can have a major effect, whether it is players, Or CCP, taking action, It has proven, that speculators at the right time, can push the market vastly higher, equally, at the right time, a concerted effort can restore the Plex market to levels where pilots services become available to all at affordable prices, whatever that price may be.

In my opinion the action whoever took it, was set up to allow minimal player action to finish the Job.
That is very EVE.

Monday will be something interesting either way. I predict at this time, subject to player actions this weekend that there is a strong possibility of the 1bil support level being significantly breached even before Monday, and the 800m level does not look much stronger. It would probably be wise for speculators to put in strong support between 7-800 mil, rather than lose their shirt trying to support too high a level, But of course, who knows if someone sees the desireable level far below that, and has the means to bring it about.

Of course it could be simply Economic war, It's a thing, nothing better than to bankrupt one's enemies. Collateral damage is also a thing, best not be that guy.

I am sorry.. I have been away for Close to 2 years now. I will admit I haven' t read all the 39 pages of this thread.

But if I got it correctly you Motie aren't that satisfied with the current PLEX prices, and I must say your analysis seems to be some what affected by your own wishful thinking.
Sure you will have some movements up and down, but when me and my friends left EVE last time 2 years ago there was 2 very safe assumption we made.

We placed our ISK in Procurers and PLEXs....

Of those 2, if I was to leave again Plex still seem like a safe option over time..

But I wish you well in trying to affect the market in any meaningful way with your posting in Market Discussion your doom and gloom scenarios. My advice to you is, spend your time running lvl4 mission in empire instead of posting lengthy post in here and maybe you can afford the PLEX that you need :-D

And don't you worry about the PLEX market, I don't need any, but IF they fall I will buy some more :-)

Looking back last month On August (08) 24 to 27 or 25 and 26th, 2015 or EVE Year time rather, I made an advanced business forecast that the rate would go up from 940m - 960m to around 1.1b ISK to 1.2b ISK.

I mentionned that I would keep my source secret and unpublished at that time since I didn't have the resources to publish those details in enough exactitude to make it worthwhile.

I took the risk of using some hidden information in the forecast and I presumed it would not affect the factors influencing the value by more than 10%.

In fact, 1.1b ISK to 1.2b ISK only is 8.33% margin of difference. Not even 10%.

I further predicted in the publicly announced forecast that this rate would occur by September to around mid-October (same year).

I got some of my fact mistaken , if not wrong, or within a margin of error higher than I would have liked to work with.

One error is that , those rates occured until November of last year, that is, according to another poster publishing in this thread, or fourm... I could not verify those data at this time.
There is a ratio of efficiency related to the verification.

I will make a graph or extract data from the EVE Market graph for PLEx, but the rate went up to 1.1b ISK by September, after reaching it end of August for a day.
It then reached 1.2b ISK a week later or so.
It then again reached 1.29b ISK a few days after that.

My forecast accuracy was off by 0.07b ISK end of August, beginning of September, at around 1.093b ISK.
That was a margin of error of 0.7 % or less than 1% which was a good sample of the PLEx market exactitude wise.
The digit accuracy level was around 1 to 3 digits after the floating point.

1.29b ISK is 6.976 7% difference over 1.2b ISK .

There are margin of accuracy, and level of trusts which are not based on value of accuracy but on rights of association.
You may hear or read, this is right, that is wrong and so on, but when it comes down to accuracy of those statement, they are motivated by association rather than mathematical accuracy, or rather, without other mathetical accuracy than the logic diagrams of associations.

I prefer to verify mathematical, or even business arithmetic formulas accuracy before doing something more practical, like take an action, publish a post, do an online transaction (in EVE Online).

It is true that PLEx go up on Wednesday and down on Thursday evening.
I made profit from PLEx speculation, all lotions aside, and I can calculate the margin of profit, or count my profit percentage.
Is it done automatically?
Hell no, no more automatically than the positive and negative electronic current flowing through those digital circuits.
The rest of it, I have to either hard-code it, or punch it in, before it can be read or extracted.

I am more than certain that others posted it, just where is harder to post here.


A second error is:
I only bought 11 PLEx, and I didn't expect my funds to get those PLEx would run out.
I would have bought another 2 PLEx or more, just so I could get the 10% margin of profit from the previous rate.

3rd:
I sold most of my PLEx at around 1.1(3)b ISK to 1.2(45)b ISK while those figure were not the most efficient cost-profit scenario.
Why scenario, well, I just so happen to be able to get enough capital to make scenarios and to shoot it.


Conclusion:
I made 10% to 20% profit, but I could have made 5% to 15% more (=6.97% to 14.728 % more).
Take some, give some.

ok, we'll leave this for now.


Edit:
1. The title cannot be changed, only the OP can update it, if it can be modified.

2. The source of the data and forecast info was from the back to school time period.

There are factors related to University students, or other, which modify the EVE Market due to diminished and restricted time to PLEx accounts.
Parents may be investing more in schooling making the available funds for PLEx of a lesser numerical amount and value...
Does this increases PLEx value? By how much?
I read it went up to 20% last November, we'll see...
I would not put all my egg baskets (2 or more) in the same Orca.
(I only have 1 Orca.)
But I would test running Machariel or Sin in Orca Maintenance Bay, if the loot will not drop.
But I don't want to lose my 400m ISK to 800m ISK + investment anyways, and I can't afford it.

(teachers and school admin can also be more busy...)

Edit 2:
Error 4:
I did not use my trader to sell the PLEx(es).
I did use my trader to sell PLEx(es), yes, but if less than 50%, it could lead to a 4.5% mistake.
1.5% tax by non-trader (zero skill, even level 1 is the most percent margin off from 0, trains in under 28 mins, or 28m).
- (minus) (0.75%) tax by level 5 trader = 0.75% difference x 6 = 4.5%
I sold 11 PLEx(es), 5 of which , the latest, were sold by the one trader.
I am learning more trading all around now.
The more market, the merrier (not the less secret, the less ISK.)

Very good If you believe Plex is a long term hold, you are perfectly entitled to your opinion.

Historically you may have made a correct call, not disagreeing with you in any way.
But historical performance is no guarantee of future performance.

In my opinion that is likely to be a poor assumption.

However what happens, is what will happen. I may be right, you may be right, but it is hard to argue over what actually happened before close of business on Friday, and it is hard to argue that fresh support levels have not deliberately been put in place by players attempting to support prices, and to try to drive them back up.
It is also hard to argue that this downward pressure will not reoccur when office time in GMT occurs.

My view is it is speculators hoping to keep the price high, not a demand to redeem Plex for Pilots services at any price.
My view is there is the opportunity for a few traders to be able to get out of their positions and take profits.
But not many. The support is just not there for large numbers.

You are not compelled to accept my view, but it is foolish to disregard the possibility that it may be correct.
Being dismissive where others may disagree with you is not going to gain you or your position respect.

At the end of the day, events will determine whether you followed the smart money, or are just collateral damage.

Friday was a clear notification that someone is acting, in volume, to reset the price of plex. Whether this is successful depends on the source, determination, and the means at their disposal.

No one can act surprised and upset, if they took no notice and ignored matters whilst attempting to keep on with business as usual, and get on the wrong side of the market.

Players have a free choice, and should not expect to be protected from the result of their own inattentiveness and greed.

The market will behave as it will behave, It will be interesting to watch, But I do expect speculators to try to shore up their support, before Monday. But all hell may or may not break loose in the meantime. It sounds like you are dealing with the market in an intelligent manner, and keeping things moving and taking profits where you can.

Have a good evening and Enjoy your dinner.

After a time in here you know people to block (myself included if you dont like my reasoning or think I lack it), and the threads start to be much smaller.