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Plex Prices

First post
Author
Shakuul
Infinitus Sapientia
#361 - 2015-04-15 22:56:22 UTC
Alexi Stokov wrote:
If the PLEX holders are fearful that the PLEX change will occur and possibly lock PLEX to an account, what are you going to need 4000 months of game time for?


Fair point, there is always that risk with any asset (the risk that CCP will nerf it). However, is there reason to think CCP is moving in that direction? The ability to use PLEX for many more things (swap for AUR, give to a friend, multiple training) would indicate they are moving towards more, rather than less, use for PLEX.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#362 - 2015-04-16 00:08:06 UTC
Noonian Enaka wrote:
Anthar Thebess wrote:
Current plex holders keeping prices up.
I know people that have around 4 thousand of plexes they want to sell now.


ShockedShocked

That is a LOT of bound capital. I am not sure if that amount of capital and it`s associated speculation is healthy for the game economyQuestion

I was always under the impression, that there is way too much ISK influx past and present. It`s understandable that peolpe are looking for a hedge to put all that ISK in...but wow...at 750 million per Plex we are talking about 3million millions ShockedShocked

Thats enough to **** over any economy. The more I think about it the more I think it would be good if plex would crash overnight down to the 200ish million mark or lower like it used to be.


4K PLEX is 3T ISK, after factoring in that you couldn't get buy order price for that quantity.

Three trillion ISK is less than one twentieth of one percent of the total player built or looted assets in EVE. There is provably more than six quadrillion (6000 T) in player-built assets without counting blueprints, 'unique' ships and the like.

I expect the PLEX price to trend up slowly over time, punctuated with speculative bumps along the way.

200m days are forever gone. 200m prices occurred when there was a lot less ISK in the economy.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Koniforous
Tauren Transit
#363 - 2015-04-16 02:29:54 UTC
Is it plausible that ccp is the primary entity keeping prices around 800mil? They've said their central bank intervenes when prices increase too fast, but with a new operator, maybe the bank attempts to maintain a steady price against decreases also. Call me a n00b, but it just seems a little far fetched that a pilot or pilot entity can possess enough market force to keep something like plex at a steady ~800mil, but for someone with unbounded access to banned assets and banned accounts it would be an easy thing to accomplish.

Maybe the central bank aims for a specific rate of price growth?
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#364 - 2015-04-16 03:57:19 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Koniforous wrote:
Is it plausible that ccp is the primary entity keeping prices around 800mil?


Yes, by being bad. Blink

Lowest Peak-concurrent-user numbers since 2007, with newborn player creation levels back to 2010, along with no increase in (new) players willing to spend real cash on the game, and ever-growing number of bittervets with 2.5 accounts average left in the game will do that for this most interesting commodity.

Elementary zupply und demand, friend. Smile

Quote:
They've said their central bank intervenes when prices increase too fast


Oooh, could you be so kind as to direct me to learning more details on this most curious facility? Thank you. Smile

Quote:
Maybe the central bank aims for a specific rate of price growth?


Entirely possible - Can artificially create supply and put it on the market to suppress prices, or buy out current supply to hike prices via unlimited ISK facility, subject to the data on new player creation numbers, review of current habits in the fotm meta of popular aspects-activities in the game, and their interest in spending lave on a virtual currency at specific price levels/thresholds. Along with data on total liquid ISK in circulation and its monthly inflation, number of accounts active via plex and real credit, and many other metrics.

A hiiiigh price also grants incentive to people, willing to purchase said most illustrious currency that is our ISK with real monies, as well as deterring established players from using plex as an alternative to subscription, which increasingly gets more attractive as certain thresholds are met and passed, requiring people to abandon Fun in a race acquiring the eternal ISK for the purpose of the ultimate exchange.

You didn't hear me say any of that, but I'm thinking aloud. Blink

Fiat currency - ISK is real!

Eve is real!
Koniforous
Tauren Transit
#365 - 2015-04-16 05:21:34 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Koniforous wrote:
They've said their central bank intervenes when prices increase too fast


Oooh, could you be so kind as to direct me to learning more details on this most curious facility? Thank you. Smile

Google...
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#366 - 2015-04-16 06:32:59 UTC
I'm just trying to stem human interaction, that is all. Sad

Thanks Smile
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#367 - 2015-04-16 10:09:37 UTC
Alexi Stokov wrote:
If the PLEX holders are fearful that the PLEX change will occur and possibly lock PLEX to an account, what are you going to need 4000 months of game time for?
Even if this were to happen (unlikely), you'd still be able to convert the PLEX to AUR and trade the AUR in the same way PLEX currently trades. I can't see them locking both and screaming "YOLO" on their way down while people explode with monument shooting rage.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Ria Nieyli
Nieyli Enterprises
SL33PERS
#368 - 2015-04-16 12:38:54 UTC
Four thousand PLEX is not that much, considering daily volumes though.
Priest Amarr
Temple's Gate
#369 - 2015-04-16 13:48:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Priest Amarr
Market McSelling Alt wrote:


In 2013 CCP said they had over 10,000 Plex sitting in holding accounts from confiscated banned characters. CCP also admitted that most of the Plex sold on market ends up sitting unused in character hangers.

I think they have some very valid reasons for taking Plex out of the game and into the AUR market. Many sad speculators when this happens.


The moment Plex's convertibility is gone, so would plex. Why would anybody need plex for if they won't be able to trade it for isk? For paying the subscription? You can directly subscribe with your credit card. For secondary training? No need to plex for that either.

The moment you take plex out of the game CCP would start losing accounts big time. Because plex caters two different types of players at once. Player A spends time to make isk in game so he can play for free, Player B has more real money and not much time so he buys plex and trades it for isk with Player A. Therefore player B's real cash finances player A's game time and player A's in game efforts give Player B a chance to get himself shinny stuff without a sweat. Now take the plex out of this equation and suddenly Player A has to pay real cash for his game time and Player B has to grind in game to make isk. They are both unhappy, they are both gone. So as long as CCP is in it's right mind, plex will stay. They may replace it with something even better though. Maybe add more functionality to it.

Plex sitting in hangars without being used doesn't hurt anybody either. When I took a break I had more than 10 plexes in my hangar. I didn't come back for years and they just stood there. When I finally logged back in I found them where I left. This is what you are talking about, and it's not a problem. I can use them for my game time or sell them for isk. It's my concern not CCP's. CCP already got paid for them in advance.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#370 - 2015-04-16 13:59:16 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Ria Nieyli wrote:
Four thousand PLEX is not that much, considering daily volumes though.


Speaking of volumes, it is unavailable pre-2014/07 on eve-markets. Shockedhttp://eve-markets.net/detail?typeid=29668#history

Fuzz works excellently for the short term charting - https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php?typeid=29668&regionid=10000002

Another reason for plex prices *in general*, is the efforts in combating RMT. Not sure how current the problem is, but I'd imagine the troublemakers would always try to offer a better exchange rate versus it. Smile
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy
Caldari State
#371 - 2015-04-16 20:45:40 UTC
Market McSelling Alt wrote:
OMG That stupid Toady guy was right!

Quote:
The team is looking into removing buying PLEX directly and replacing it with buying AUR which can then be redeemed for a PLEX from the New Eden Store, reducing the current ISK/PLEX/AUR to simply ISK/AUR


From Day One of the CSM... no more buying Plex on the market, they want us to use AUR instead.



Here is the reference to changing PLEX
Hemmo Paskiainen
#372 - 2015-04-16 23:05:29 UTC
Think simple, there's just too few revenue streaming in. I wonder why ccp.... how about: "Ha Ha you should have listned 5 yrs ago"

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?

erg cz
Federal Jegerouns
#373 - 2015-04-17 08:54:58 UTC
Priest Amarr wrote:
Because plex caters two different types of players at once.


Wrong. According to CCP statistics, average PLEX changes 4 owners before it got used. Among those 4 owners are ppl with hundreds or even thousands of PLEXes, who keep prices up. So CCP loses money (your type B players need to buy less plexes cause player A gives him more ISK for one)
This quota thing, when you can convert only limited amount of PLEXes into AUR, is simple and effective solution how to make those 2 or 3 speculants rage quit. Rest of the community will happily keep on playing.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#374 - 2015-04-17 12:33:19 UTC
erg cz wrote:
Priest Amarr wrote:
Because plex caters two different types of players at once.
Wrong. According to CCP statistics, average PLEX changes 4 owners before it got used. Among those 4 owners are ppl with hundreds or even thousands of PLEXes, who keep prices up. So CCP loses money (your type B players need to buy less plexes cause player A gives him more ISK for one)
This quota thing, when you can convert only limited amount of PLEXes into AUR, is simple and effective solution how to make those 2 or 3 speculants rage quit. Rest of the community will happily keep on playing.
Actually there was a podcast a while back (I'll hunt for it later) with one of the owners of one of the GTC selling websites (I think it was eve-codes) and they were asked about PLEX prices and they stated that there was no real correlation between price of PLEX and PLEX sold. I imagine it's because while people need less PLEX each when the price gets highers, more people are willing to part with real cash for that much more ISK.

As for people trading PLEX, that's what a healthy economy does. It's not a problem that requires a solution, it's a required part of a healthy market. I doubt very much CCP will put in arbitrary limits on or remove the ability to trade PLEX.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Priest Amarr
Temple's Gate
#375 - 2015-04-19 08:54:57 UTC
erg cz wrote:
Priest Amarr wrote:
Because plex caters two different types of players at once.


Wrong. According to CCP statistics, average PLEX changes 4 owners before it got used. Among those 4 owners are ppl with hundreds or even thousands of PLEXes, who keep prices up. So CCP loses money (your type B players need to buy less plexes cause player A gives him more ISK for one)
This quota thing, when you can convert only limited amount of PLEXes into AUR, is simple and effective solution how to make those 2 or 3 speculants rage quit. Rest of the community will happily keep on playing.


I said two different types of players, not two different players.

CCP doesn't lose money from high plex prices because people's game budgets are limited to begin with. A person that buys a plex for $19.95 and sells it for 800mil won't start paying $160 if you drop plex prices to 100mil. Instead he'll think 100mil wouldn't worth his 19.95 and stop buying altogether.

Plex prices are not going up because of speculation. It's the inflation. Some people are able to pay trillions of isk for buying thousands of plexus because the in-game economy inflation allows them to reach those wallet sizes. In that case majority of players becomes (relatively) poor, and poorer right? Well, welcome to the reality of inflation based economy. This happens everyday in real world.
Market McSelling Alt
Doomheim
#376 - 2015-04-19 11:40:59 UTC
Priest Amarr wrote:
erg cz wrote:
Priest Amarr wrote:
Because plex caters two different types of players at once.


Wrong. According to CCP statistics, average PLEX changes 4 owners before it got used. Among those 4 owners are ppl with hundreds or even thousands of PLEXes, who keep prices up. So CCP loses money (your type B players need to buy less plexes cause player A gives him more ISK for one)
This quota thing, when you can convert only limited amount of PLEXes into AUR, is simple and effective solution how to make those 2 or 3 speculants rage quit. Rest of the community will happily keep on playing.


I said two different types of players, not two different players.

CCP doesn't lose money from high plex prices because people's game budgets are limited to begin with. A person that buys a plex for $19.95 and sells it for 800mil won't start paying $160 if you drop plex prices to 100mil. Instead he'll think 100mil wouldn't worth his 19.95 and stop buying altogether.

Plex prices are not going up because of speculation. It's the inflation. Some people are able to pay trillions of isk for buying thousands of plexus because the in-game economy inflation allows them to reach those wallet sizes. In that case majority of players becomes (relatively) poor, and poorer right? Well, welcome to the reality of inflation based economy. This happens everyday in real world.


There is no inflation in this game. It has been said many many times with many many graphics. Eve has been deflationary for more than half a decade. Now even the Faction/DED gear is deflationary.

Falling subscription numbers, free CCP gifts, changes to mining and manufacturing, increased averaged SP and increased availability of drops have made everything in this game deflationary.

Don't believe me? Consult the graph http://cdn1.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/65910/1/Indices_2014-02.png

By the way, your statement is completely wrong. There might be an upper limit to how much money the player base will spend because of real life budgets, but just because plex goes to 2bil a piece doesn't mean people will continue to max out their budget.

What you describe is the upper limit of spending, but the bottom limit is zero. I am sure the players using plex for isk would love higher prices, CCP wouldn't though.

CCP Quant: Of all those who logon in Eve, 1.5% do Incursions, 13.8% PVP and 19.2% run Missions while 22.4% mine.

40.7% Join a fleet. The idea that Eve is a PVP game is false, the social fabric is in Missions and Mining.

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#377 - 2015-04-19 18:50:54 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Market McSelling Alt wrote:

There is no inflation in this game. It has been said many many times with many many graphics. Eve has been deflationary for more than half a decade. Now even the Faction/DED gear is deflationary.


Really now? Roll And the prices of Tritanium, Pyerite & other base basket minerals, which are used to calculate Eve's true CPI, have been the same as they were back in 2010? A forty percent rise on average looks pretty inflationary. Roll

Pyerite: http://eve-markets.net/detail?typeid=35#history
Mexallon: http://eve-markets.net/detail?typeid=36#history

http://twostep4csm.blogspot.com/2012/03/its-econmony-stupid.html - 1 Tril ISK circa 2012 vs 380bn per day in 2010 entering & staying can also be disregarded?

Sold to you! Big smile

Incidentally, plex really took off, with a lag of a few months, during the advances in Pyerite & Mexallon, beginning around the start of the year 2012.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#378 - 2015-04-19 19:24:12 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Priest Amarr wrote:

CCP doesn't lose money from high plex prices


They do, actually. Smile

Quote:
A person that buys a plex for $19.95 and sells it for 800mil won't start paying $160 if you drop plex prices to 100mil. Instead he'll think 100mil wouldn't worth his 19.95 and stop buying altogether.


A price difference of 8 times is an extreme example - yes, at those exchange rates people wouldn't be interested in plex. Now, 800 vs 600 is a lot more reasonable - a 25% decrease in plex "purchasing power", but still within the threshold of providing excellent options.

Since prices topped just short of 1bn ISK, that would constitute a 40% decrease, or 1.66 plexes being required to purchase the same basket of commodities, compared to just one back in Nov of 2014.

Still a very good exchange rate for those interested, and as McSelling Alt mentioned, in light of Deadspace/Pirate modules & ships price crash and the ISBoxer ban in Dec of 2014, that would indeed be a reasonable target for CCP to pursue at this moment in time. Blink
Market McSelling Alt
Doomheim
#379 - 2015-04-20 04:31:45 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Market McSelling Alt wrote:

There is no inflation in this game. It has been said many many times with many many graphics. Eve has been deflationary for more than half a decade. Now even the Faction/DED gear is deflationary.


Really now? Roll And the prices of Tritanium, Pyerite & other base basket minerals, which are used to calculate Eve's true CPI, have been the same as they were back in 2010? A forty percent rise on average looks pretty inflationary. Roll

Pyerite: http://eve-markets.net/detail?typeid=35#history
Mexallon: http://eve-markets.net/detail?typeid=36#history

http://twostep4csm.blogspot.com/2012/03/its-econmony-stupid.html - 1 Tril ISK circa 2012 vs 380bn per day in 2010 entering & staying can also be disregarded?

Sold to you! Big smile

Incidentally, plex really took off, with a lag of a few months, during the advances in Pyerite & Mexallon, beginning around the start of the year 2012.



The mineral index doesn't matter one hill of beans if the total end product prices are still decreasing. It means either the build costs were reduced or the profits on manufacturing were reduced.

CCP has released the inflation numbers and 4 of the 5 indicators are deflationary, with minerals being the only inflationary index.

Sorry, no one cares what the price of minerals are, but we do care how much a T2 missile launcher is... get it?

CCP Quant: Of all those who logon in Eve, 1.5% do Incursions, 13.8% PVP and 19.2% run Missions while 22.4% mine.

40.7% Join a fleet. The idea that Eve is a PVP game is false, the social fabric is in Missions and Mining.

Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#380 - 2015-04-20 10:27:11 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Priest Amarr wrote:

CCP doesn't lose money from high plex prices


They do, actually. Smile
No they don't. As I said above, when one of the ETC traders was interviewed they stated that the number of codes sold does not change with the price of PLEX, likely either because peopel have a set amount they want to spend or codes or the price increases attract more players buying fewer each for the same total.

GankYou wrote:
Since prices topped just short of 1bn ISK, that would constitute a 40% decrease, or 1.66 plexes being required to purchase the same basket of commodities, compared to just one back in Nov of 2014.
Prices didn't really top just short of 1bn, at least not steadily. If you look at the PLEX graphs the price suddenly shot up rapidly just prior to the isboxer announcement. To me that was an artificial raise being pushed by someone with enough capital to get the price primed for cashing out around the time the announcement was made (which actually raises questions of who had prior knowledge of the change) as you can see here. Even without any other changes I don't think the price would have stayed there without someone holding it up as it was too sharp a rise to be the natural price increase.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.