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Increasing demand results in increased price
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Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#81 - 2017-05-26 16:26:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Jenn aSide
People say this every time, the PLEX market is at risk. I could link "omg plex prices" posts here all day from 2013 on up. And not just from this forum.


Very simply question then. WHY hasn't it happened yet? People claim that terrible things are going to happen because PLEX is too expensive. So when is the big fall going to happen?

Why didn't EVE just explode on November 19, 2014?

Donima wrote:
Plex on the marker in eve has just reached 1 billion isk. The increase in price if this commodity is outrageous. Especially when you consider that just 2 years ago it was only 500mil. And back in 2009 it was just under 200mil. That means it grew 300 mil over 3 years and then 500 mil in just under 2yrs with nearly 200mil of that being just in the last month or 2.

Now some may say this is due to inflation or increasing avenue for income stream. But nowhere of those explain why Plex prices have skyrocketed so drastically while every other commodity has practically stayed stagnant.

Many players rely on the ability to pay isk to play because they can't afford to pay with real money such as broke college students or others affected by a down turned economy. But these prices are making it extremely difficult for these people to afford the time to be able to afford to Plex their account.

My concern is that if CCP doesn't do something about this soon, they will be losing a lot of their more consistent player basis and we as capsuleers might be losing a lot of our industrial friends.

I ask CCP to consider this market commodity as an exploited market item right now and look for a way to fix it as soon as possible.


Any day now, PLEX prices are gonna kill EVE!!!!!!


Edit: I like how that post tried to make it sound like it wasn't that the poster was mad about plex prices for herself but rather the poster's concern for "broke college students and folks hurt by the economic downturn" lol.

It's great that we have now evolved to being concerned that some people now live in countries where the minimum wage is $1.50 U.S. per hour.... It's like history repeats itself over and over and over again.
Chainsaw Plankton
FaDoyToy
#82 - 2017-05-26 19:26:06 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
Any day now, PLEX prices are gonna kill EVE!!!!!!


OH NOES!!!1!~ Shocked

@ChainsawPlankto on twitter
Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#83 - 2017-05-26 19:32:42 UTC
Chainsaw Plankton wrote:
Jenn aSide wrote:
Any day now, PLEX prices are gonna kill EVE!!!!!!


OH NOES!!!1!~ Shocked


It's true, I seen it! Twisted

I would love to coin a new phrase based off the number 1 rule of EVE. "Don't fly what you can't afford to lose" should be joined by "if you can't afford to pay, don't even PLEX" (because plex will go up and you will feel really bad).
Frostys Virpio
State War Academy
Caldari State
#84 - 2017-05-26 20:40:28 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
Chainsaw Plankton wrote:
Jenn aSide wrote:
Any day now, PLEX prices are gonna kill EVE!!!!!!


OH NOES!!!1!~ Shocked


It's true, I seen it! Twisted

I would love to coin a new phrase based off the number 1 rule of EVE. "Don't fly what you can't afford to lose" should be joined by "if you can't afford to pay, don't even PLEX" (because plex will go up and you will feel really bad).


While it might be bad for CCP, anyone who can't afford to play should probably leave anyway and burn their time on something more productive for them than pixel submarines. EVE is relatively cheap as entertainment but it's still a luxury after all.
Indahmawar Fazmarai
#85 - 2017-05-27 07:23:25 UTC
Sonya Corvinus wrote:
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
Probably next time he shouldn't be born in places like Serbia, Bulgaria, Bolivia or Brazil, where the minimal wage is about 1.50 USD per hour.

...silly 'muricans... Roll


Today I learned it's impossible for people to move.

Did you miss the part where I moved thousands of miles to have a shot at a good job? I moved thousands of miles with only what I could carry with me. One more time, if you can't afford $10.95/mo, stop playing video games and focus on your life.

But I forgot, I'm american, so there's no possibility I had a **** life for decades. Roll


Moving within your country is not "moving". Also there's a well known fact that people who start down and reach to the top usually suffer from survivorship bias ("If I made it, why they don't try?"), forgetting the random opportunities they enjoyed.

And by the way, a person can have a perfectly focused life (like having an appartment and a internet connection and a computer) and yet be stupid if they spent money in videogames they can pay with just gametime.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#86 - 2017-05-27 07:41:35 UTC
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
Sonya Corvinus wrote:
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
Probably next time he shouldn't be born in places like Serbia, Bulgaria, Bolivia or Brazil, where the minimal wage is about 1.50 USD per hour.

...silly 'muricans... Roll


Today I learned it's impossible for people to move.

Did you miss the part where I moved thousands of miles to have a shot at a good job? I moved thousands of miles with only what I could carry with me. One more time, if you can't afford $10.95/mo, stop playing video games and focus on your life.

But I forgot, I'm american, so there's no possibility I had a **** life for decades. Roll


Moving within your country is not "moving". Also there's a well known fact that people who start down and reach to the top usually suffer from survivorship bias ("If I made it, why they don't try?"), forgetting the random opportunities they enjoyed.

And by the way, a person can have a perfectly focused life (like having an appartment and a internet connection and a computer) and yet be stupid if they spent money in videogames they can pay with just gametime.


Actually, yes moving within a country is still moving. Maybe not as stressful as moving to a foreign country, but at this point you are arguing over who is the tallest pygmy.

As for using game time to "pay", if you like "grinding" and thereby make enough ISK to PLEX your account, yes then that makes sense. However if grinding is in fact a real grind and you can afford a yearly subscription, then grinding makes little sense...that opportunity cost thing you know.

Nothing is free in life.

And excellent point on survival bias and selection bias in general.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
Sylvia Kildare
Kinetic Fury
#87 - 2017-05-27 08:18:13 UTC
Marika Sunji wrote:
Don Pera Saissore wrote:
Sonya Corvinus wrote:
I don't see why anyone would ever actually buy plex in game....


I wish i was stupid and privileged like you


First off, way to escalate, wow.

Second, where I live, a ****** minimum-wage job pays for subscription in under half the time it would take to grind a plex in-game, and that is with currency conversion.


However, some people keep more than one account going. If paid entirely in real world cash, that can add up fast. A lot of multiboxers use a mix of subs and PLEX to balance that out a bit, if they make enough money in game that they don't mind buying PLEX with some of it, that is.
Sylvia Kildare
Kinetic Fury
#88 - 2017-05-27 08:28:35 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
The reason people explain (and constantly have to re-explain) the fact that PLEX makes CCP more money than other forums of subscribing is because so many people demonstrate that they don't get it. They think that somehow them using PLEX is costing CCP money because they aren't personally giving CCP any money, when (again) PLEX use means MORE money for CCP.


True, but... that said, there are people who just will not sub. And if the PLEX price in-game becomes too expensive for them, they won't be PLEXing or subbing. If the demand for PLEX falls then the supply will stagnate and there will be less and less incentive for the people who make ISK out of buying PLEX for real cash to buy more of it... ofc, that's supposed to lower the ISK price enough to make it attractive enough for people to buy it to PLEX their accounts with again.

But some people just aren't going to come back. At least not anytime soon. The player count will continue to dip as people get turned off by the boom and bust cycles.
March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#89 - 2017-05-27 08:29:27 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:

Moving within your country is not "moving". Also there's a well known fact that people who start down and reach to the top usually suffer from survivorship bias ("If I made it, why they don't try?"), forgetting the random opportunities they enjoyed.


Actually, yes moving within a country is still moving. Maybe not as stressful as moving to a foreign country, but at this point you are arguing over who is the tallest pygmy.

One can say that flying to Mars is "not much different" from flying to Moon....
But some time you get exponential raise of difficulty by just adding one more step or condition....

But in general i agree: people CAN move if they really want it. The only thing that stops you - it is youself.

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"
Indahmawar Fazmarai
#90 - 2017-05-27 13:47:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Indahmawar Fazmarai
March rabbit wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:

Moving within your country is not "moving". Also there's a well known fact that people who start down and reach to the top usually suffer from survivorship bias ("If I made it, why they don't try?"), forgetting the random opportunities they enjoyed.


Actually, yes moving within a country is still moving. Maybe not as stressful as moving to a foreign country, but at this point you are arguing over who is the tallest pygmy.

One can say that flying to Mars is "not much different" from flying to Moon....
But some time you get exponential raise of difficulty by just adding one more step or condition....

But in general i agree: people CAN move if they really want it. The only thing that stops you - it is youself.


And frontiers. And the random but non-neglectable chance to die along the way if you're trying to move from a country where 1 month of subscription to EVE is a daily wage to one where it's a hourly wage.

Which is the thing that upset me about that stupid comment about "focusing" and "moving". An American moves to another city in the States and thinks he haves a effin clue on what it's like to move from a underdeveloped country to the "welcoming" and "open armed" developed ones. Very specially, the USA...
Bjorn Tyrson
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#91 - 2017-05-27 14:55:58 UTC
Sylvia Kildare wrote:
Jenn aSide wrote:

True, but... that said, there are people who just will not sub. And if the PLEX price in-game becomes too expensive for them, they won't be PLEXing or subbing. If the demand for PLEX falls then the supply will stagnate and there will be less and less incentive for the people who make ISK out of buying PLEX for real cash to buy more of it... ofc, that's supposed to lower the ISK price enough to make it attractive enough for people to buy it to PLEX their accounts with again.

But some people just aren't going to come back. At least not anytime soon. The player count will continue to dip as people get turned off by the boom and bust cycles.


and what percentage of the player base do you suppose this actually is? we already know from ccp that only a minority of players actually plex their accounts vs regular sub. which is something that you also understand.

[quote]
However, some people keep more than one account going. If paid entirely in real world cash, that can add up fast. A lot of multiboxers use a mix of subs and PLEX to balance that out a bit, if they make enough money in game that they don't mind buying PLEX with some of it, that is.


multiboxers are also a minority of the eve population, but I would be more than willing to bet that they make up the majority of people who plex. which means that the people who ONLY use plex with zero accounts subbed, are a minority of a minority.
and even if "some" won't come back if plex prices drop again, thats now a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of the player base that you are debating for.

Sure, if plex prices get so astronomically high that my alt accounts stop making me a profit (hasn't happened yet, and there is some considerable room before that would happen, prices would need to double without the injector market moving at all to keep up before that would happen) then yeah, I might start trimming some of my accounts. and if the reduced demand and increased supply from people wanting to cash out on 3b plex pushes the prices back down to the point of making sense again, well then i'd re-plex them. and i'm sure that i'm hardly alone in that.

so the actual impact on sub numbers, both long term and short term, is going to be much MUCH less than you seem to be implying. out of all the things that could be making sub numbers go down, plex prices are hardly one of the bigger ones.

(as an aside, I find it interesting that the plex price scare seems to keep popping up every 2 years or so almost like clockwork... does this mean that the game is actually GASP getting new players who don't remember the last big price scare? almost like the majority of the player base isn't actually just a handful of bitter vets and their alts sitting on mountains of plex)
Sylvia Kildare
Kinetic Fury
#92 - 2017-05-30 06:05:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Sylvia Kildare
Bjorn Tyrson wrote:
multiboxers are also a minority of the eve population, but I would be more than willing to bet that they make up the majority of people who plex. which means that the people who ONLY use plex with zero accounts subbed, are a minority of a minority.
and even if "some" won't come back if plex prices drop again, thats now a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of the player base that you are debating for.

Sure, if plex prices get so astronomically high that my alt accounts stop making me a profit (hasn't happened yet, and there is some considerable room before that would happen, prices would need to double without the injector market moving at all to keep up before that would happen) then yeah, I might start trimming some of my accounts. and if the reduced demand and increased supply from people wanting to cash out on 3b plex pushes the prices back down to the point of making sense again, well then i'd re-plex them. and i'm sure that i'm hardly alone in that.

so the actual impact on sub numbers, both long term and short term, is going to be much MUCH less than you seem to be implying. out of all the things that could be making sub numbers go down, plex prices are hardly one of the bigger ones.

(as an aside, I find it interesting that the plex price scare seems to keep popping up every 2 years or so almost like clockwork... does this mean that the game is actually GASP getting new players who don't remember the last big price scare? almost like the majority of the player base isn't actually just a handful of bitter vets and their alts sitting on mountains of plex)


I don't know how many people in EVE have 2 or more accounts. I believe someone once estimated the average # of accts per player... can't remember the #, tho. 1.8? 2.1? somewhere around 2, I think. Not that every single person has 2, ofc, there's people with 10-20 or more who tilt the average upwards vs. 20 newbies with just one account each.

But part of my point was that while someone might say "well, if it's too hard for these multiboxers to support all of their accounts with PLEX due to the rising prices, why not just scale back down to 1 account?" there are a lot of multiboxers who are only playing the game because of how useful it is to have more than one account. And if faced with the choice of downscaling back down to one main and no alts... or just not playing/subbing/plexing at all... some (not sure if most or not) will decide on the latter choice.

Even if that's a minority of the playerbase and a relatively small impact, it still seems like a bad outcome. Have you seen the average players logged in graphs for the past few years? Ever since 2013, we're on a downhill side. I actually started my first account in June 2013, so I was never here before the top of that hill and can't compare the feeling of now to back then, but... it does feel like EVE is getting emptier and emptier a lot, outside of Jita and Amarr's populations at least.

I don't mind it in some ways, but a lot of people do, so just wanted to point out that PLEX inflation might have a little something to do with that from a multiboxer POV.

Full disclosure: I was a dualboxer who became a tripleboxer due to needing a booster toon, I'm perfectly happy with just 2. But I'd never want to drop back down to 1. Ever. Too many useful things you can only do with 2 or so much more easily with 2 that doing them with 1 once you've experienced it with 2 is painful to contemplate. I've never had more than 3 accounts so can't speak to the super dozens+ acct multiboxer experience, that's a whole other shebang.
Salvos Rhoska
#93 - 2017-05-30 10:42:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
There is so much PLEX stockpiled ingame, especially by players whom otherwise are already multibillionaires or trillionaire entities, that PLEX will never drop.

They dont need the isk. They just sit on the PLEX and watch the price rise year after year.
They continue to withdraw PLEX from the market with expendable isk, year after year, to appreciate the value of their existing stockpiles.

The rough 200-300mil increase in PLEX price ingame just allows them to increasingly leverage their PLEX against loans or collateral for other exchanges, thus generating even more isk income/liquidity.

Meanwhile, smaller entities struggle to meet PLEX cost in activities that have not increased in profitability at even 1% of the PLEX isk price per year. They can barely match inflation.

Newer players/entities are being starved out of the game, except if they sub.
Whereas older players/entities (whom notably have earned extensively not only on PLEX price increase, but also numerous CCP fk ups that they profited from before they where patched put over the years), leads to one conclusion:

-CCPs income is now based on how many players choose to sub.
-PLEX is become a true niche.
---There is so much stockpiled PLEX ingame, it dwarfs introduction of new PLEX per month, year, or even multiple years.
---PLEX stockpilers control the price of PLEX ingame.
---A player will attempt to PLEX ingame, before they sub.
---Failing that, a player will sub.
---Only after that, will they consider buying PLEX from CCP.

PvE v PvP <> Old School Exploration <> CODE Licenses <> CODE Special Agent
Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#94 - 2017-05-30 13:34:43 UTC
Bjorn Tyrson wrote:

(as an aside, I find it interesting that the plex price scare seems to keep popping up every 2 years or so almost like clockwork... does this mean that the game is actually GASP getting new players who don't remember the last big price scare? almost like the majority of the player base isn't actually just a handful of bitter vets and their alts sitting on mountains of plex)


Pretty much, though if you look at the link I posted somewhere in this thread (I think it was this one) you will see some of the same plex Doomsayers posting.

At least some of the people complaining about plex prices (in the past, and now) are people for whom plex price is mostly irrelevant, ie they are veteran players with more than enough wealth to pay 4 or 5 times what plex costs now, they just really don't like to spend money on anything, even if it's play (space) money.

Hellfire, I rat with sub-capital ships (multiboxing my Mach, and a couple VNIs) to make isk. Enough plex to buy game time for my 4 accounts is fast approaching 6 bil per month, I probably have a harder time buying gametime via plex than a lot of people who complain about plex prices.

IMO it's all about mindset. I know plex is a luxury and that the truth is that it's been a ludacris miracle that game time has been so cheap for all this time that a few hours of killing rats is all it took. Knowing that (and knowing that it could not last) I never subbed more accounts than I could reasonably pay for with cash, so as plex rises to where it probably should have always been in the 1st place, I'm not surprised nor do I really lose anything if I have to switch to cash to keep playing.

TL;DR plex price anxiety is a self inflicted wound.
Salvos Rhoska
#95 - 2017-05-30 15:18:41 UTC
Every year, more and more PLEX is stockpiled.

The PLEX market is owned by ingame entities, not CCP.

All CCP can hope for, is more subs.

PvE v PvP <> Old School Exploration <> CODE Licenses <> CODE Special Agent
Gimme Sake
State War Academy
Caldari State
#96 - 2017-05-30 17:06:39 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Every year, more and more PLEX is stockpiled.

.



You don't know that. It is just a supposition. Some players may brag about their stash but they may as well be trolling.
Old vets with 20-30 alts might sub 1-3 accounts but the rest of the alts swallow plex.

"Never not blob!" ~ Plato
Sylvia Kildare
Kinetic Fury
#97 - 2017-05-31 06:13:28 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
There is so much PLEX stockpiled ingame, especially by players whom otherwise are already multibillionaires or trillionaire entities, that PLEX will never drop.

They dont need the isk. They just sit on the PLEX and watch the price rise year after year.
They continue to withdraw PLEX from the market with expendable isk, year after year, to appreciate the value of their existing stockpiles.


... Except PLEX did drop. Last year, during WW Bee + Citadel introduction. Sure, it was a wild set of circumstances that doesn't happen every day, but PLEX dropped from 1.4 bil or somewhere around there (around what it effectively is now) down to 800-900 mil ISK. Some sellers were ditching it in the 700s, but they were the exception to the rule.

It only lasted for a short while, but PLEX fell by 50%! It was so relatively cheap a year ago... that yes, I'm sure the stockpilers just stockpiled even more at the time. Now it's up 200% and they can, as you say, cash out a bit here and there whenever they want some spending money, without really making much of a dent in their stash.

Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Every year, more and more PLEX is stockpiled.

The PLEX market is owned by ingame entities, not CCP.

All CCP can hope for, is more subs.


More subs would be nice for CCP, sure, but more plex purchases on the website is also really nice for CCP since it's overpriced compared to 12 month sub rates, which is what a lot of people keep trying to remind folks of in topics like this.

Gimme Sake wrote:
You don't know that. It is just a supposition. Some players may brag about their stash but they may as well be trolling.
Old vets with 20-30 alts might sub 1-3 accounts but the rest of the alts swallow plex.


Well, CCP knows how many PLEX are out there that haven't been cashed in yet for services.
Callum Perkins
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#98 - 2017-05-31 11:27:57 UTC
Great time to buy PLEX then eyy?
Salvos Rhoska
#99 - 2017-05-31 12:43:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
PLEX price has dropped occasionally but its always bounced back and risen even higher than ever before thereafter.

The value of PLEX in isk is determined entirely ingame, not by CCP, or by PLEX purchases from CCP.
Even if/when CCP dumps confiscated PLEX, the isk value of that is still determined entirely ingame, and always bounces back even higher than before.

The obfuscated element there, is the vast stockpiles of unused PLEX ingame that skews supply in perpetuity.
The introduction of PLEX per month into EVE (or even per year), is utterly dwarfed by existing stockpiles in EVE already.

Player behavior is the following:
-PLEX with isk if you can.
-Sub with cash if you cant.
-Sub with PLEX/isk ingame, and buy PLEX with cash for isk conversion.
-Sub + buy PLEX with cash if you have money to burn.

TLDR:
CCPs income from PLEX sales is a niche, and furthermore, its value ingame is controlled by ingame entities.
Subs are universal and cheaper than PLEX as purchased from CCP.
Result:
The wealthiest players ingame dont have have to sub.
Less wealthy players can try to PLEX, but the higher the price, the harder it gets.
Thus its newer/poorer players that provide CCP with its sub income.
Thus the income of CCP is increasingly dependent on subs from newer/ingame poorer players.

PvE v PvP <> Old School Exploration <> CODE Licenses <> CODE Special Agent
KaarBaak
Squirrel Team
#100 - 2017-05-31 14:14:34 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
People say this every time, the PLEX market is at risk. I could link "omg plex prices" posts here all day from 2013 on up. And not just from this forum.


Very simply question then. WHY hasn't it happened yet? People claim that terrible things are going to happen because PLEX is too expensive. So when is the big fall going to happen?

Why didn't EVE just explode on November 19, 2014?

Donima wrote:
Plex on the marker in eve has just reached 1 billion isk. The increase in price if this commodity is outrageous. Especially when you consider that just 2 years ago it was only 500mil. And back in 2009 it was just under 200mil. That means it grew 300 mil over 3 years and then 500 mil in just under 2yrs with nearly 200mil of that being just in the last month or 2.

Now some may say this is due to inflation or increasing avenue for income stream. But nowhere of those explain why Plex prices have skyrocketed so drastically while every other commodity has practically stayed stagnant.

Many players rely on the ability to pay isk to play because they can't afford to pay with real money such as broke college students or others affected by a down turned economy. But these prices are making it extremely difficult for these people to afford the time to be able to afford to Plex their account.

My concern is that if CCP doesn't do something about this soon, they will be losing a lot of their more consistent player basis and we as capsuleers might be losing a lot of our industrial friends.

I ask CCP to consider this market commodity as an exploited market item right now and look for a way to fix it as soon as possible.


Any day now, PLEX prices are gonna kill EVE!!!!!!


Edit: I like how that post tried to make it sound like it wasn't that the poster was mad about plex prices for herself but rather the poster's concern for "broke college students and folks hurt by the economic downturn" lol.

It's great that we have now evolved to being concerned that some people now live in countries where the minimum wage is $1.50 U.S. per hour.... It's like history repeats itself over and over and over again.


PLEX isn't going to kill EvE online. It's like saying bad driving is going to kill an old person.

There can be no doubt that EvE is "fading." See link

If the concurrent user count is nearly the same as it was pre-F2P, and you have to assume that some of those users are now F2P users, then the number of paid accounts is at or below the F2P bump.

What the actual numbers are? Only the folks in the boardroom know. The big mystery is where is the point of no return? Similar to Dust, when is someone going to say the numbers no longer justify...development...maintenance...keeping the lights on?

But, much like your aging grandmother, players need to prepare themselves. Could be tomorrow...could be two years from now. But the trend is obvious. EvE has been in a slow population decline since 2013.

KB

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