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[ARC] Press Release: Zero Casualty Hive Op
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Arrendis
TK Corp
#81 - 2016-08-07 20:22:34 UTC
Ibrahim Tash-Murkon wrote:
Arrendis wrote:
You assert opinion, bereft of any empirical evidence.

If I recall correctly the last thing we argued about was your claim that the Bee Empire rivaled the true empires in size and permanence so, you know, maybe don't too eagerly swing for another miss.


And would you like to present your empirical evidence for intelligence comparisons between capsuleers and Drifter pilots? You're the one making an assertion and claiming it is fact. The burden of proof is upon you.
Ibrahim Tash-Murkon
Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#82 - 2016-08-07 20:35:41 UTC
You are in a thread which in its very title presents the evidence.

"I give you the destiny of Faith, and you will bring its message to every planet of every star in the heavens: Go forth, conquer in my Name, and reclaim that which I have given." - Book of Reclaiming 22:13
Arrendis
TK Corp
#83 - 2016-08-07 21:27:34 UTC
Ibrahim Tash-Murkon wrote:
You are in a thread which in its very title presents the evidence.


Don't be silly. The fact that Alizabeth was able to develop a doctrine which is successful against Drifter battleships without taking losses under very specific, controlled conditions, does not in any way provide evidence of comparative general intelligence levels. To make that assertion is equivalent to claiming that the fact that Drifters themselves were able to strike at TES Seraph without losses is evidence that they are smarter than the Amarr Empire - an assertion there is equally no evidence to support.
Ibrahim Tash-Murkon
Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#84 - 2016-08-07 23:52:14 UTC
No. This is an example of the Drifter's having been thoroughly outsmarted. TES Seraph was an example of the Drifters making an uncomplicated and unimaginative strike the success of which was carried wholly on their access to more advanced technology. Capsuleers, thanks probably to the lifestyle and pressures which act to shake our cohort, are almost psychotic in their efficiency and inventiveness. Apples, meet oranges.

But, I know neither of us are going to back down because that is, frankly, not something in our blood. So I will let the continuing progress of the Consortium speak for my thesis moving forward.

Unless I think of something snarky to say. In that case the likelihood of my speaking is very nearly 100%.

"I give you the destiny of Faith, and you will bring its message to every planet of every star in the heavens: Go forth, conquer in my Name, and reclaim that which I have given." - Book of Reclaiming 22:13
Morwen Lagann
Tyrathlion Interstellar
#85 - 2016-08-08 01:40:05 UTC
I would not say they have been "thoroughly outsmarted". They have adapted in the past, and I am sure they will eventually do so again. When they do, we will do the same.

ARC has been using similar methods to this for a while now, as I discussed in my presentation at the Seyllin Conference. We were, at the time, just only starting to try taking method to its extremes - this is just one of the end results.

Morwen Lagann

CEO, Tyrathlion Interstellar

Coordinator, Arataka Research Consortium

Owner, The Golden Masque
Alizabeth Vea
Doomheim
#86 - 2016-08-08 04:36:45 UTC
I have identified at least five vulnerabilities to the Heavy Weasel Doctrine. There are almost certainly more that I don't know of.

In the coming weeks, I have additional actions to attempt with regard to ARC's Hive Penetrations. I am not and will not declare this doctrine final. At the moment, it works. We can go into their homes and beat them in their own space and leave with all the ships we came in with. When I first started with ARC, as a lowly line logi pilot, it was a given that people would lose a ship to a Drifter, every single time we encountered one. Over the months, we adapted and then it was not a given that we would lose ships to a Drifter. Our Operational Analysis put the losses to Drifter doomsday weapons at one in three. We refined that tactical approach further, which resulted in the Heavy Weasel Doctrine.

I joined ARC to do one thing and one thing only: kill Drifters. I am not involved in ARC's other programs (like the SMCM collection) or even the logistics and SRP aspects of ARC. I shoot things and that is all.

I do know that Priano-haani has certain wishes for the Hive Penetration fleets: that they be inexpensive, and that they be easily accessible to new pilots. This is important. In order to keep the pressure on the Drifters, we need pilots in fleet every time. For our early efforts where a Drifter meant the certain destruction of a ship, having numbers was critical to reaching the Vault. Providing SRP meant that pilots would keep coming back. However, even though cruisers are not that expensive, comparatively speaking, losing six or seven every week adds up. ARC never had a Tech moon, so SRP funds were not unlimited.

The first trials of the Heavy Weasel Doctrine saw two Basilisks lost. The disparity in ISK value between replacing a Caracal or a Scythe was commented on, and it is true that repeated losses of Basilisks would not be sustainable. However, the issues have been fixed and we pressed forward, resulting in two operations so far with no losses. Our last fleet saw what should have been a FUBAR situation salvaged and a ship saved due to the greater tactical ability of the Basilisks (and a good bit of Providence). Right now, the doctrine works.

The Drifters can be beaten. They can be killed with no losses. If ARC can do it, so can others. The Heavy Weasel Doctrine is not the only way. There are tens of thousands of capsuleers; if we set about to beating these monsters, we will win.

Retainer of Lady Newelle and House Sarum.

"Those who step into the light shall be redeemed, the sins of their past cleansed, so that they may know salvation." -Empress Jamyl Sarum I

Virtue. Valor. Victory.
Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#87 - 2016-08-08 19:26:58 UTC
My apologies, Alizabeth, but I must address a few mischaracterizations.

Prior to November of last year, the Drifters' doomsday weapon never missed. At that point, we were quite right in maintaining the core ARC doctrine of Caracal and Scythe, as any heavier or more advanced ship would expose us to worse losses. Following the surprising development in November of Drifters' weapons tracking failures (I could theorize on the cause of this, but it's a digression for later), our losses started to fall. Indeed, in Redoubt, due to the Wolf-Rayet's properties, we would often have ops with the loss of only one or two cruisers, despite encounters with multiple Drifters. Conflux was, for obvious reasons, a place where we'd suffer disproportionately because of the signature-flaring element of the binary Pulsar.

The maximum assumed losses would be one per Drifter, but it was far more reasonable to assume we'd keep it to three or four cruisers on a given operation, which is still notably less value than the loss of a single advanced technology cruiser or a battleship of any class.

That said, at that point Drifters were continuing to fight at high speed and at a fair distance.

It was, what, in February or March that Drifters began responding to the use of massed fleets of destroyers and frigates by using a slower, closer-in orbit? It was at this point that efforts to further restrict losses could develop. I believe it was Captain Shutaq that identified this during an operation, was it not? And from that seed grew the current doctrine.

In any case, carrying forward, we still must establish a track record before I consider the matter completely settled. A lossless public Hive operation remains a notable milestone, but even periodic losses of a Basilisk will be an expense.

My concern remains this: there are rumors of fleet command electronics changes in the pipe which may influence the viability of this doctrine. Further, the Drifters seem to want their pound of flesh. A lossless doctrine may spur them to further refine their tactics in the way a low-loss doctrine doesn't.

As always, we will continue to adapt and refine our methods.

Just know that adaptation may require future sacrifice.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?
Slayer Liberator
Fusion Enterprises Ltd
Pandemic Horde
#88 - 2016-08-08 19:31:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Slayer Liberator
Makoto Priano wrote:
My apologies, Alizabeth, but I must address a few mischaracterizations.

Prior to November of last year, the Drifters' doomsday weapon never missed. At that point, we were quite right in maintaining the core ARC doctrine of Caracal and Scythe, as any heavier or more advanced ship would expose us to worse losses. Following the surprising development in November of Drifters' weapons tracking failures (I could theorize on the cause of this, but it's a digression for later), our losses started to fall. Indeed, in Redoubt, due to the Wolf-Rayet's properties, we would often have ops with the loss of only one or two cruisers, despite encounters with multiple Drifters. Conflux was, for obvious reasons, a place where we'd suffer disproportionately because of the signature-flaring element of the binary Pulsar.

The maximum assumed losses would be one per Drifter, but it was far more reasonable to assume we'd keep it to three or four cruisers on a given operation, which is still notably less value than the loss of a single advanced technology cruiser or a battleship of any class.

That said, at that point Drifters were continuing to fight at high speed and at a fair distance.

It was, what, in February or March that Drifters began responding to the use of massed fleets of destroyers and frigates by using a slower, closer-in orbit? It was at this point that efforts to further restrict losses could develop. I believe it was Captain Shutaq that identified this during an operation, was it not? And from that seed grew the current doctrine.

In any case, carrying forward, we still must establish a track record before I consider the matter completely settled. A lossless public Hive operation remains a notable milestone, but even periodic losses of a Basilisk will be an expense.

My concern remains this: there are rumors of fleet command electronics changes in the pipe which may influence the viability of this doctrine. Further, the Drifters seem to want their pound of flesh. A lossless doctrine may spur them to further refine their tactics in the way a low-loss doctrine doesn't.

As always, we will continue to adapt and refine our methods.

Just know that adaptation may require future sacrifice.

I always wondered why you use cruisers and not the cheaper frigates or destroyers I mean what about web drones and railguns/missile launchers
Makoto Priano
Kirkinen-Arataka Transhuman Zenith Consulting Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium
#89 - 2016-08-08 19:42:32 UTC
Specifically, because a Drifter's standard weapons fire would fairly quickly destroy smaller ships, and they fairly reliably hit them.

We've had several specific criteria for our doctrine ships:


  1. Must be able to withstand regular weapons-fire from several Drifter battleships, allowing time for Logistics intervention.
  2. Must be able to reliably apply damage to a range of small or fast-moving targets.
  3. Must be able to act effectively in a range of wormhole environments.
  4. Must be inexpensive, given assumption of casualties.
  5. Must be effective against Capsuleer threats, given unsecure combat environment with limited operational security.


RLML Caracals and Scythes hit a sweet spot. The only location where a shield-based doctrine would be non-ideal, the Redoubt Hive with its Wolf-Rayet binary partner, is a location where the rapid light missile launcher is an ideal weapon system.

I'll admit I've generally been resistant to doctrinal drift despite pressure, simply because the Caracal is such an effective platform for our purposes.

Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries: exploring the edge of the known, advancing the state of the art. Would you like to know more?
Slayer Liberator
Fusion Enterprises Ltd
Pandemic Horde
#90 - 2016-08-08 19:49:48 UTC
Makoto Priano wrote:
Specifically, because a Drifter's standard weapons fire would fairly quickly destroy smaller ships, and they fairly reliably hit them.

We've had several specific criteria for our doctrine ships:


  1. Must be able to withstand regular weapons-fire from several Drifter battleships, allowing time for Logistics intervention.
  2. Must be able to reliably apply damage to a range of small or fast-moving targets.
  3. Must be able to act effectively in a range of wormhole environments.
  4. Must be inexpensive, given assumption of casualties.
  5. Must be effective against Capsuleer threats, given unsecure combat environment with limited operational security.


RLML Caracals and Scythes hit a sweet spot. The only location where a shield-based doctrine would be non-ideal, the Redoubt Hive with its Wolf-Rayet binary partner, is a location where the rapid light missile launcher is an ideal weapon system.

I'll admit I've generally been resistant to doctrinal drift despite pressure, simply because the Caracal is such an effective platform for our purposes.

Well I am not currently skilled into Caldari or Minmatar anything but can you send me the fit so I can update my skill plan acordingly
Alizabeth Vea
Doomheim
#91 - 2016-08-08 20:37:10 UTC
Priano-haani,

I never said the doctrinal decisions were incorrect for the time. If for some reason the Drifters doomsday weapon again starts to hit with perfect accuracy, then the Heavy Weasel Doctrine will have to be retired quickly.
You are correct that it was Lord Consort Newelle that identified the seed to the new doctrine. Once the seed was planted that we could control the Drifter's movements rather than just react to it, plus an Osprey test, the Wild Weasel doctrine was born, which evolved. This doctrine is still evolving.

When I said that I had identified five vulnerabilities to the doctrine, I was not picking a number out of a hat. I also included the command changes. I am aware of those rumors and have thought of how to incorporate them into the doctrine. At this point, until rumors are facts, there's no point in worrying.

Some of the vulnerabilities I have identified will require adaptation on our part. Some will require us to scrap and try something else. We'll see.

For my own part, as a fleet commander, two things come to mind.

Firstly, don't worry about the cost of the Basilisks. If we lost one, I'll replace it out of my pocket. I am more than willing to put my money where my mouth is. I believe in this and will continue to do so. You'll notice that I have never, ever filed for SRP for ARC Hive Ops and never will. I'm not here for filthy mammon, but to kill Drifters. I know; I look Caldari, but I am not.

Secondly, I will not ever accept the idea that we need to deliberately sacrifice ships and lives just to keep the enemy happy. Not just No, but **** NO. That idea is so anathema to me, I have no actual response beyond that.

The Drifters might want their pound of flesh, but I don't care what the enemy wants except to know what to deny them.

Retainer of Lady Newelle and House Sarum.

"Those who step into the light shall be redeemed, the sins of their past cleansed, so that they may know salvation." -Empress Jamyl Sarum I

Virtue. Valor. Victory.
Pieter Tuulinen
Societas Imperialis Sceptri Coronaeque
Khimi Harar
#92 - 2016-08-08 20:59:31 UTC
Alizabeth Vea wrote:
I'm not here for filthy mammon, but to kill Drifters. I know; I look Caldari, but I am not.


You do remember that Caldari don't chase profit for the sake of profit, don' t you?

Profit means my dependants eat. Their children go to school. Their ailments are soothed by the best healthcare in the cluster.

For the first time since I started the conversation, he looks me dead in the eye. In his gaze are steel jackhammers, quiet vengeance, a hundred thousand orbital bombs frozen in still life.
Alizabeth Vea
Doomheim
#93 - 2016-08-08 21:12:51 UTC
I am aware, Tuulinen-haan. I suppose my attempt at light humor fell flat. My greater point is that victory over the Drifters is a Crusade for me. One which I will pay any price or bear any burden to achieve.

Retainer of Lady Newelle and House Sarum.

"Those who step into the light shall be redeemed, the sins of their past cleansed, so that they may know salvation." -Empress Jamyl Sarum I

Virtue. Valor. Victory.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#94 - 2016-08-08 21:21:23 UTC
Alizabeth Vea wrote:
Firstly, don't worry about the cost of the Basilisks. If we lost one, I'll replace it out of my pocket.


Once things stabilize in Delve, Ali, hit me up about these, and Guardians, if you decide to adapt to an armor-based doctrine where the J-space conditions make that advantageous. As soon as the normal revenue streams are flowing, I should be able to help out with financing properly-fitted ships. Two drifters scoring simultaneous hits like the one we saw this past week will overwhelm the C-Types. It might be worth looking into A-Types for those, even with the enhanced risk that they bring. The spirits know I've used enough of them on my Scimitars.
Alizabeth Vea
Doomheim
#95 - 2016-08-08 21:25:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Alizabeth Vea
I have a theoretical doctrine that uses Guardians. Sadly, it flat does not work in Conflux.

Retainer of Lady Newelle and House Sarum.

"Those who step into the light shall be redeemed, the sins of their past cleansed, so that they may know salvation." -Empress Jamyl Sarum I

Virtue. Valor. Victory.
Arrendis
TK Corp
#96 - 2016-08-08 21:30:58 UTC
Next time I'm near the Throne Worlds, we'll talk. I have a crazy idea.
Alizabeth Vea
Doomheim
#97 - 2016-08-08 21:40:53 UTC
Hopefully I will see you soon? For other matters we've discussed.

Retainer of Lady Newelle and House Sarum.

"Those who step into the light shall be redeemed, the sins of their past cleansed, so that they may know salvation." -Empress Jamyl Sarum I

Virtue. Valor. Victory.
Kaaeliaa
Tyrannos Sunset
#98 - 2016-08-21 00:04:18 UTC
I would have to say that today was our smoothest Hive penetration yet, or at least that I've personally seen.

Many thanks to ARC's coordinators and fleet commanders.

"Do not lift the veil. Do not show the door. Do not split the dream."
Slayer Liberator
Fusion Enterprises Ltd
Pandemic Horde
#99 - 2016-08-22 20:08:37 UTC
I have a theoretical doctrine that uses damp and td cruisers and destroyers
Morwen Lagann
Tyrathlion Interstellar
#100 - 2016-08-22 21:36:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Morwen Lagann
That was already attempted a year ago with mixed levels of success. The Drifters adapted to it fairly quickly and it ceased having any success at all afterward.

You can find our reports on it from back then here on the IGS.

You are of course welcome to go try it yourself anyway, but it's likely to be nothing short of a waste of money, time and lives on your part.

Kaae: As you already know, your continued presence on these operations is always welcome and I'm glad that you and everyone else come along as frequently as you do.

Morwen Lagann

CEO, Tyrathlion Interstellar

Coordinator, Arataka Research Consortium

Owner, The Golden Masque