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The N+1 fallacy and the fact that Devs believe in it

Author
Casandra Elise McIntire
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#1 - 2016-04-17 01:10:26 UTC
I keep seeing over and over Devs commenting on N+1 and how the only way to counter this is to do the same by bringing in more for you to win.

This is a bold faced lie, and while I am not sure who created it, I am sure the Devs have drank the kool-aide on this one.

How is it a lie you ask, as everyone in Eve knows this to be true.

First, we know for a fact that for every fleet comp, there is a hard counter. More often than not, the hard counter requires far less numbers to beat the first fleet do to its ability to counter that fleet in nearly every way.

Ex: 256 guys are running destroyers, Corms for this example. Which can be relatively easy to counter with 100-150 cerbs, no contest and there is a good chance of loosing next to no cerbs in the process.

Second, we hear that N+1 reps can make a fleet nearly invulnerable to attack. This is absolutely untrue, and one of the biggest false statements given to us for the changes coming in Citadel and the new FAX. This is simply because, there is a hard cap on reps. No matter how many reps you place on the grid, you can't stop an Alpha strike from killing the target. The hard cap is your max EHP, and nothing can save you.

Ex: B-R5, in which over 70 titans died. Both sides had massively more reps on grid than the 8 or so doomsdays could deal in damage, and yet each time a volley was fired, another titan fell swiftly and no amount of reps could prevent this.

Third, N+1 is something that only wins fights because we naturally believe the superior force should win. 90% of many losses come from pilots automatically reacting to the myth that the larger force will always win. This commonly is proven false daily in Eve. From a few elite pilots on an undock, using top end fits with boosts and high-grades, to the random fight where a smaller force happens in on a larger one and gets lucky with an FC head-shot or the smaller FC just out wits his counterpart.

Buying into this mythical N+1 being the be all, end all, is a complete farse. Open your eyes, do your own math, look at goops like Rooks and Kings and understand that many of these claims are those from small groups who can't compete with even equal numbers or big block groups who are desperate to break an enemy they haven't been able to beat.

As for the Devs, I would really think you should know better and understand the game you run with more insight. It is unbelievable that you don't know this to be true, and if you honestly don't realize this, than either get in the game and see the truth or do some research. The facts are what they are, no amount of finger pointing and false words can change them. Be responsible for what you say, understand it will be taken as truth, so make sure of it first.

I love this game, but I can't stand it when those with power, space fame or perceived space importance, try to use their soapbox to outright lie to those who might not understand the truth.
Chopper Rollins
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#2 - 2016-04-17 01:29:57 UTC
What the i don't even.


Goggles. Making me look good. Making you look good.

Revis Owen
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2016-04-17 01:32:16 UTC
Reserved.

Agent of the New Order http://www.minerbumping.com/p/the-code.html If you do not have a current Mining Permit, please contact me for issuance.

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#4 - 2016-04-17 01:35:55 UTC
Thank you for that passionate refutation of your own misunderstanding of the term.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

MidnightWyvern
Fukamichi Corporation
SAYR Galactic
#5 - 2016-04-17 01:41:08 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
Thank you for that passionate refutation of your own misunderstanding of the term.

Destroyed.

Rattati Senpai noticed us! See you in the next FPS!

Alts: Saray Wyvern, Mobius Wyvern (Dust 514)

Aiwha
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#6 - 2016-04-17 01:50:43 UTC
That many destroyers are probably going to alpha a couple cerbs or logi easily. Which means that you're gonna win the isk war.

Sanity is fun leaving the body.

ShahFluffers
Ice Fire Warriors
#7 - 2016-04-17 02:27:18 UTC  |  Edited by: ShahFluffers
Ummmm... I hate to break it to you... but your OP pretty much lends support to the N+1 dilemma.

To start off with:
Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Second, we hear that N+1 reps can make a fleet nearly invulnerable to attack. This is absolutely untrue, and one of the biggest false statements given to us for the changes coming in Citadel and the new FAX. This is simply because, there is a hard cap on reps. No matter how many reps you place on the grid, you can't stop an Alpha strike from killing the target. The hard cap is your max EHP, and nothing can save you.

Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Ex: B-R5, in which over 70 titans died. Both sides had massively more reps on grid than the 8 or so doomsdays could deal in damage, and yet each time a volley was fired, another titan fell swiftly and no amount of reps could prevent this.

When you boil these examples down, they basically say this:

It doesn't matter how many reps you bring to a fight. If the other guy brings enough people then reps become fairly pointless.

That is pretty much the essence of the "N+1"
Reps are the other big offender of N+1... but you see more complaints about this at the small to mid-level engagement scale (sub-10 to 50v50 man fights respectively).

Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Second, we hear that N+1 reps can make a fleet nearly invulnerable to attack. This is absolutely untrue, and one of the biggest false statements given to us for the changes coming in Citadel and the new FAX. This is simply because, there is a hard cap on reps. No matter how many reps you place on the grid, you can't stop an Alpha strike from killing the target. The hard cap is your max EHP, and nothing can save you.

I think you took a few things about of context.

Most of the arguments about "invincibility and reps" fall into 2 categories:
1. Small to mid-scale engagements: when you are in a 50v50 or smaller fight... reps matter. A LOT. And if you bring enough of them, you can't be killed... unless the other guy brings more people (N+1 issue again).
2. Citadels and Reps.

Now regarding the second point; unless I missed something (and feel free to correct me if this has changed)... the main issue is that there is a cap on how much DPS can be applied to a Citadel.
I believe 4,000 DPS was the magic number for Medium Citadels? Followed by 12,000 and 60,000 for Large and X-Large Citadels respectively.

This means that no matter how hard each person in a hostile fleet hits (they can all be doing 4,000 / 12,000 / 60,000 damage per strike) or how many people are hitting at the same time... only 4,000 / 12,000 / 60,000 damage is going to be applied each second.

Those numbers are not outside the realm of possibility for Capital Reps.

Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Third, N+1 is something that only wins fights because we naturally believe the superior force should win. 90% of many losses come from pilots automatically reacting to the myth that the larger force will always win. This commonly is proven false daily in Eve. From a few elite pilots on an undock, using top end fits with boosts and high-grades, to the random fight where a smaller force happens in on a larger one and gets lucky with an FC head-shot or the smaller FC just out wits his counterpart.

True and untrue at the same time.

In small scale of engagements, you can certainly tip the odds either way through better piloting / skills / boosters / weapons / etc.

But things get trickier as engagements become larger. Individual piloting carries less and less importance (beyond simply not screwing up in a noticeable way). Fleet maneuvering and fleet synergy (see: ships in fleet adding to each other's strengths while also mitigating each other's weaknesses) becomes more important.

And at the far end of massive ship warfare everything goes out the window. All that matters is being in range and having more damage than the other guy (which invariably means "have more bodies than the other guy").


Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Buying into this mythical N+1 being the be all, end all, is a complete farse. Open your eyes, do your own math, look at goops like Rooks and Kings and understand that many of these claims are those from small groups who can't compete with even equal numbers or big block groups who are desperate to break an enemy they haven't been able to beat.

Ah... but N+1 is the "be all, end all" when numbers are concerned.

And Rooks and Kings... while they do some pretty impressive stuff... even they have sometimes admitted that they will avoid a fight because "there are too outnumbered."

The simple fact of the matter is... counters cease to be a factor when there are enough bodies to ignore attrition and/or make the enemy run of ammo.
Shae Tadaruwa
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#8 - 2016-04-17 02:31:38 UTC
OP, you appear to not understand what N+1 refers to.

Worth checking your own assumptions before declaring others wrong, because your whole post indicates that you misunderstand what the term refers to.

Dracvlad - "...Your intel is free intel, all you do is pay for it..." && "...If you warp on the same path as a cloaked ship, you'll make a bookmark at exactly the same spot as the cloaky camper..."

Linus Gorp
Ministry of Propaganda and Morale
#9 - 2016-04-17 09:12:34 UTC
http://mopam-eve.org/memes/popcorn.gif

When you don't know the difference between there, their, and they're, you come across as being so uneducated that your viewpoint can be safely dismissed. The literate is unlikely to learn much from the illiterate.

Zet Soirn
Soirn Enterprises
#10 - 2016-04-17 10:03:08 UTC
Bumblefck
Kerensky Initiatives
#11 - 2016-04-17 11:03:25 UTC
If you see a shitpost on GD, and bring more shitposts to counter it, does the original shitpost disappear?


Question


Enquiring minds want to know!


Idea

Perfection is a dish best served like wasabi .

Bumble's Space Log

Zet Soirn
Soirn Enterprises
#12 - 2016-04-17 11:06:11 UTC
Bumblefck wrote:
If you see a shitpost on GD, and bring more shitposts to counter it, does the original shitpost disappear?


Question


Enquiring minds want to know!


Idea



Your pedo-stache is a shitpost. Pirate

Badum-ts
Bumblefck
Kerensky Initiatives
#13 - 2016-04-17 11:09:09 UTC
Your lack of pupils is a definite shitpost. Attention

Perfection is a dish best served like wasabi .

Bumble's Space Log

Zet Soirn
Soirn Enterprises
#14 - 2016-04-17 11:46:40 UTC
Bumblefck wrote:
Your lack of pupils is a definite shitpost. Attention


Based on your false observations, I believe you are the one lacking pupils, creep-stache.

It looks like pubes are growing out of your nose. Lol
Sustrai Aditua
Intandofisa
#15 - 2016-04-17 13:44:48 UTC
Bumblefck wrote:
If you see a shitpost on GD, and bring more shitposts to counter it, does the original shitpost disappear?
N+1?

If we get chased by zombies, I'm tripping you.

Casandra Elise McIntire
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#16 - 2016-04-17 14:20:53 UTC
ShahFluffers wrote:
Ummmm... I hate to break it to you... but your OP pretty much lends support to the N+1 dilemma.

To start off with:
Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Second, we hear that N+1 reps can make a fleet nearly invulnerable to attack. This is absolutely untrue...

When you boil these examples down, they basically say this:

It doesn't matter how many reps you bring to a fight. If the other guy brings enough people then reps become fairly pointless.

That is pretty much the essence of the "N+1"
Reps are the other big offender of N+1... but you see more complaints about this at the small to mid-level engagement scale (sub-10 to 50v50 man fights respectively).

Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Second, we hear that N+1 reps can make a fleet nearly invulnerable to attack. This is absolutely untrue...

I think you took a few things about of context.

Most of the arguments about "invincibility and reps" fall into 2 categories:
1. Small to mid-scale engagements: when you are in a 50v50 or smaller fight... reps matter. A LOT. And if you bring enough of them, you can't be killed... unless the other guy brings more people (N+1 issue again).
2. Citadels and Reps.

Now regarding the second point; unless I missed something (and feel free to correct me if this has changed)... the main issue is that there is a cap on how much DPS can be applied to a Citadel.
I believe 4,000 DPS was the magic number for Medium Citadels? Followed by 12,000 and 60,000 for Large and X-Large Citadels respectively.

This means that no matter how hard each person in a hostile fleet hits (they can all be doing 4,000 / 12,000 / 60,000 damage per strike) or how many people are hitting at the same time... only 4,000 / 12,000 / 60,000 damage is going to be applied each second.

Those numbers are not outside the realm of possibility for Capital Reps.

Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Third, N+1 is something that only wins fights because we naturally believe the superior force should win. 90% of many losses...

True and untrue at the same time.

In small scale of engagements, you can certainly tip the odds either way through better piloting / skills / boosters / weapons / etc.

But things get trickier as engagements become larger. Individual piloting carries less and less importance (beyond simply not screwing up in a noticeable way). Fleet maneuvering and fleet synergy (see: ships in fleet adding to each other's strengths while also mitigating each other's weaknesses) becomes more important.

And at the far end of massive ship warfare everything goes out the window. All that matters is being in range and having more damage than the other guy (which invariably means "have more bodies than the other guy").


Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Buying into this mythical N+1 being the be all, end all...

Ah... but N+1 is the "be all, end all" when numbers are concerned.

And Rooks and Kings... while they do some pretty impressive stuff... even they have sometimes admitted that they will avoid a fight because "there are too outnumbered."

The simple fact of the matter is... counters cease to be a factor when there are enough bodies to ignore attrition and/or make the enemy run of ammo.


Sorry if I was not clear in my OP. As I was half awake and a bit pissed reading yet another Dev post.

While in small gang fights, yes N+1 can be an issue, though that only seems the case for rather small alliances and independent corps. Rarely have I seen larger groups with this issue being as those groups bypass the 50v50 from the onset.

Where I hold issue is with Devs and N+1 as they try to state this is the issue with large scale engagements. This though is not the case. With the B-R5 example, what you failed to see is that it wasn't N+1, there is a simple hard cap number and no matter how many extra bodies are there, the hard cap EHP is all that matters, and the Devs have stated that with more reps even events like B-R5 reps produce invulnerable ships.

Though what the Devs don't understand about fights like B-R5, there was something else that was in play, something much more sinister and something which they have no control over. That being the meta game, spies and a bit of dirty tactics. PL was loosing more Titans not because RUS/Imperium Titans had more reps, but because RUS/Imperium targets were in FC roles and then before they were reset, the followup targets would be other boosting titans. This left them vulnerable and easier to kill. (Only saying this as it has become public knowledge).

Any time there is a hard cap on numbers, N+1 no longer matters as you are no longer dealing with variable but solid numbers. Currently this applies in reverse with Citadels, in which there will only need be so many FAX, and after that, no more fielded matter when it comes to repping the Citadel. In contrast though, the FAX is the opposite, as it has an EHP hard cap and no amount of reps will save it once Alpha level dmg is applied.

So yes N+1 is a thing in Eve, though it is commonly use as the reason for design flaws which it has no part in. N+1 only matters to small gangs, and on the whole is less a matter of power but more a matter of friends and allies. This shouldn't be a reason for Devs to step in, unless it really did mean more reps = invulnerability at all levels. We wouldn't sit there and listen to a solo pilot complain that he can't solo cause all others in Eve play in 2's and 3's. So long as the fleet cap is 256, and CCP is proud and happy that everyone in Eve can pile into 1 system and fight (which they state, even knowing it will crash the node), then Devs need to accept what fleets can do and accept the social aspect of Eve and stop trying to make it where large forces have to pay cause smaller forces choose not to do the same. Devs need to stick to the mechanics of the game and let players handle the social aspects, within legal reason.
Cara Forelli
State War Academy
Caldari State
#17 - 2016-04-17 15:00:22 UTC
I believe in N-1. If you let some fleet mates die you have a higher chance of getting kill marks. Big smile

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Titan's Lament

Galaxxis
The Regency
The Monarchy
#18 - 2016-04-17 15:09:20 UTC
Goons follow the N^N principle. Care to comment on that?
ShahFluffers
Ice Fire Warriors
#19 - 2016-04-17 15:11:25 UTC  |  Edited by: ShahFluffers
Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
While in small gang fights, yes N+1 can be an issue, though that only seems the case for rather small alliances and independent corps. Rarely have I seen larger groups with this issue being as those groups bypass the 50v50 from the onset.

Then, as Malcanis pointed out earlier (see post #4), you do not understand "N+1" as a concept.

Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Where I hold issue is with Devs and N+1 as they try to state this is the issue with large scale engagements. This though is not the case. With the B-R5 example, what you failed to see is that it wasn't N+1, there is a simple hard cap number and no matter how many extra bodies are there, the hard cap EHP is all that matters, and the Devs have stated that with more reps even events like B-R5 reps produce invulnerable ships.

You just described "N+1."

One side had more reps which produced some nigh invulnerable ships. So the other side brought more bodies to compensate and make the reps pointless.
Quite basically... one side brought N+1 to render an entire tactic ineffective! The only counter to that at that level is to also bring more bodies into the fight.

Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Though what the Devs don't understand about fights like B-R5, there was something else that was in play, something much more sinister and something which they have no control over. That being the meta game, spies and a bit of dirty tactics. PL was loosing more Titans not because RUS/Imperium Titans had more reps, but because RUS/Imperium targets were in FC roles and then before they were reset, the followup targets would be other boosting titans. This left them vulnerable and easier to kill. (Only saying this as it has become public knowledge).

While I agree that the DEVs will simply never be able to control the meta-game between players... I think you completely misread how B-R5 went down.

One side didn't play their cards right. The other side brought in overwhelming force to render a tactic ineffective. That is basically what happened.

Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
Any time there is a hard cap on numbers, N+1 no longer matters as you are no longer dealing with variable but solid numbers. Currently this applies in reverse with Citadels, in which there will only need be so many FAX, and after that, no more fielded matter when it comes to repping the Citadel. In contrast though, the FAX is the opposite, as it has an EHP hard cap and no amount of reps will save it once Alpha level dmg is applied.

Correct... when you bring enough people then any ship will die no matter what.

Again... that is the essence of "N+1."

Casandra Elise McIntire wrote:
though it is commonly use as the reason for design flaws which it has no part in.
...
This shouldn't be a reason for Devs to step in,
...
Devs need to accept what fleets can do and accept the social aspect of Eve and stop trying to make it where large forces have to pay cause smaller forces choose not to do the same. Devs need to stick to the mechanics of the game and let players handle the social aspects, within legal reason.

Yeah... except... when the only true counter to a tactic is to perform the same tactic (just on a larger scale than the other)... then it needs to be looked at.
Cara Forelli
State War Academy
Caldari State
#20 - 2016-04-17 15:12:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Cara Forelli
Galaxxis wrote:
Goons follow the N^N principle. Care to comment on that?

I heard razor uses j*N. (Or i*N for you mathematical purists)

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Titan's Lament

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