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Plex Prices

First post
Author
Buzz Orti
State War Academy
Caldari State
#1081 - 2015-11-26 17:47:37 UTC
Nero Farway wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
Will it hit 1.3B again before the PLEX sale?


Wish I could short the market. P



Just take a loan in PLEX' and sell them, then rebuy them later to repay the loan.

You can't short the market in EVE (who says outside?).

Offer others to take the loan in PLEx which you sell them.
Then rebuy them (the loan in PLExes) later (from the party to get the loan) to repay the loan.

Don't minsinterpret it to get a loan in PLEx and then have to pay interest by paying the loan back in higher cost PLEx.
(Although , I don't know , unless they deserve it ...) + Interest(s).

Nero Farway wrote:
Shouldn't be a problem at all. A lot of people have have excess ISK in PLEX and do not use them anyway.
In PLEx, citadel , POS and what not. Except that they don't use them anyway, so to use them in more specific ways later.

Nero Farway wrote:

Why not make some money with those PLEX?
As long as you offer the collateral it's definitely possible.

Those PLEx all made money, even when the PLEx value go down, they still make money in the overall trend.

I'll buy your collateral for definitely possible PLEx.

Builds ship in empty Quafe bottle.

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#1082 - 2015-11-26 18:03:03 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Well a sale on Black Friday is not exactly unexpected.....

What is unexpected is that the in game price is actually still trending slightly upwards.

Why would you expect any different? People who are planning to buy PLEX for cash and then sell them for ISK are sensibly putting off that transaction until the Black Friday sale.


I know, but I also would have expected people buying PLEX for ISK to also back off...but maybe they aren't paying attention to stuff like PLEX sales.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Nero Farway
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#1083 - 2015-11-27 21:29:40 UTC
Buzz Orti wrote:

You can't short the market in EVE (who says outside?).

Offer others to take the loan in PLEx which you sell them.
Then rebuy them (the loan in PLExes) later (from the party to get the loan) to repay the loan.

Don't minsinterpret it to get a loan in PLEx and then have to pay interest by paying the loan back in higher cost PLEx.
(Although , I don't know , unless they deserve it ...) + Interest(s).


What you wrote confuses me a bit. You can short the market the same way you can do it in real life. Some hedge funds actually loan out their company shares to others so those others can sell them and later rebuy them in order to give them back. you can just do the same with PLEX.
Of course there is a cost associated with that. Thats the interest you pay for the loan. say you ask for 100 PLEX and a 30 months duration and offer to give back 101 PLEX, then the 1 PLEX is the interest. If PLEX cost more or if they cost less when it's time to pay back, thats something no one knows, but thats how shorts generally work.

Buzz Orti wrote:

In PLEx, citadel , POS and what not. Except that they don't use them anyway, so to use them in more specific ways later.


A bit confusing again. Of course people have different stuff that they are hoarding for whatever purposes. However, loaning them out does not mean they will not be available again at a later time. So when it's time to use them in "more specific ways", the loan duration could already be over. I don't expect anyone to give away stuff for longer than he can afford to do so.

Buzz Orti wrote:


Those PLEx all made money, even when the PLEx value go down, they still make money in the overall trend.


Most of them probably made money, yes. But that doesn't mean they cannot make money right now. An investor always tries to maximize his return. Plus, if you are in it for the long run, it doesn't matter if they rise or fall in the small term and it's even better if you can earn an extra plex by lending out a few.


Buzz Orti wrote:

I'll buy your collateral for definitely possible PLEx.


Now I may not be a native English speaker but I am sure I am not the only one who doesn't know what that means. I do not hold or provide any collateral at the moment.
Buzz Orti
State War Academy
Caldari State
#1084 - 2015-11-27 22:46:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Buzz Orti
Nero Farway wrote:
Buzz Orti wrote:

You can't short the market in EVE (who says outside?).

Offer others to take the loan in PLEx which you sell them.
Then rebuy them (the loan in PLExes) later (from the party to get the loan) to repay the loan.

Don't minsinterpret it to get a loan in PLEx and then have to pay interest by paying the loan back in higher cost PLEx.
(Although , I don't know , unless they deserve it ...) + Interest(s).


What you wrote confuses me a bit. You can short the market the same way you can do it in real life. Some hedge funds actually loan out their company shares to others so those others can sell them and later rebuy them in order to give them back. you can just do the same with PLEX.
Of course there is a cost associated with that. Thats the interest you pay for the loan. say you ask for 100 PLEX and a 30 months duration and offer to give back 101 PLEX, then the 1 PLEX is the interest. If PLEX cost more or if they cost less when it's time to pay back, thats something no one knows, but thats how shorts generally work.


When I wrote :
You can't short the market in EVE (who says outside?).
above.
It was meant figuratively , since
the usual form would be :
You can't short the market in EVE
(who is to say that you cannot do it outside of EVE Online).

In fact, the place I heard mentioning that you can't short sell in EVE Online's market themselves mentioned that it was possible in real life, referring to it as being outside of EVE Online.

Therefore , in this sense, I for one, was the one who said outside, and put a question mark after the word.
For two, it meant that , although you can short sell in real life, that it cannot be done without the proper channel or illegally.

Many on the Market Discussion forums.


As for you mentioning :
What you wrote confuses me a bit.
I get this a lot.
I can usually start to invest into numerating those cases chronologically, and in other orders as well.
And no, I won't include how many bits it takes to make related wholes.

btw,
Those edge funds you mentioned are not short selling with the ingame system.
Everything is done externally.
You can trade anything ingame from the game processes without doing it externally.
The system will not let you trade items for ingame ISK unless those are expanded.
Certain skill will grant you loans which will not be unpaid if a transaction is issued to be completed.

If the funds for it are removed, the offer becomes a scam, and it's a margin trading scam.
Usually those doing it are found by pilot names and are dealt with ingame.
This is not short selling the market.

As for offering 100 PLEx for 1 PLEx that is too low.
I have to raise my prices and interest accordingly.
I can't afford to get collaterals unless I can be sure to sell them without being blowed up or lose billions without profits.
That means that yes, depending on the percent of capital that needs to be covered, the escort costs will be required in full, before contract.
That means that , until I have enough to cover for the escort cost and still make a profit with minimal risk of loses, it won't materialize.

So, on 100 PLEx, and at 2 to 10 PLEx escort cost, that means that 15% only pays me 4% and less due to other costs, and start up costs, but I would take 4% profit.


Buzz Orti wrote:

In PLEx, citadel , POS and what not. Except that they don't use them anyway, so to use them in more specific ways later.


" A bit confusing again. Of course people have different stuff that they are hoarding for whatever purposes. However, loaning them out does not mean they will not be available again at a later time. So when it's time to use them in "more specific ways", the loan duration could already be over. I don't expect anyone to give away stuff for longer than he can afford to do so. "

You are again referring to confusion.
Maybe I should invest with ingame mental health degree to prevent being railroaded into making you confusing.?.

As for those investments, it's just because they save capital instead of reinvesting it in possible loses.


Buzz Orti wrote:


Those PLEx all made money, even when the PLEx value go down, they still make money in the overall trend.


" Most of them probably made money, yes. But that doesn't mean they cannot make money right now. An investor always tries to maximize his return. Plus, if you are in it for the long run, it doesn't matter if they rise or fall in the small term and it's even better if you can earn an extra plex by lending out a few. "

The longer, the more percent of profit generated, and the more ISK volume.
You can still, like me, buy a PLEx and sell it, to later buy a PLEx with the sold PLEx ISK at a worst rate.
However, there was an advantage to test the market and see if I would get more money .
I would have then avoided the loss.
But I would not have found out if I didn't try.
I also would have lost the possible use of PLEx and opportunities.
My loss wasn't that great either. Only about 5% to 10% or less.
I could verify since I have the screenshot with the taxes.

Buzz Orti wrote:

I'll buy your collateral for definitely possible PLEx.


"Now I may not be a native English speaker but I am sure I am not the only one who doesn't know what that means. I do not hold or provide any collateral at the moment."
I'll buy your collateral for definitely possible PLEx.
means:
I'll buy your "insert quote here"
for my "insert quote here".
Eg.:
I'll buy your product for my ISK.
Or, I'll buy your product for my PLEx.

The inserted "definitely possible" part is from the author mentioning about,
" Why not make some money with those PLEX?
As long as you offer the collateral it's " definitely possible. " "

It's not for operation Acoustic Kitty while on Probation.

Builds ship in empty Quafe bottle.

Paul Pohl
blue media poetry
#1085 - 2015-11-28 02:50:59 UTC
Rain6637 wrote:
pretty sure 90% of the people you think are causing a problem are doing the same thing you are. mining.

if you all stopped mining just to PLEX, the price of PLEX might go down.

that's not irony


Cutting your throat to stay alive... yes... and all the while driving down prices to make it harder to pay for the plex
Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#1086 - 2015-11-28 02:52:58 UTC
Paul Pohl wrote:
Rain6637 wrote:
pretty sure 90% of the people you think are causing a problem are doing the same thing you are. mining.

if you all stopped mining just to PLEX, the price of PLEX might go down.

that's not irony


Cutting your throat to stay alive... yes... and all the while driving down prices to make it harder to pay for the plex

Holy **** that post is a year old
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#1087 - 2015-11-28 03:30:43 UTC
Rain6637 wrote:
Paul Pohl wrote:
Rain6637 wrote:
pretty sure 90% of the people you think are causing a problem are doing the same thing you are. mining.

if you all stopped mining just to PLEX, the price of PLEX might go down.

that's not irony


Cutting your throat to stay alive... yes... and all the while driving down prices to make it harder to pay for the plex

Holy **** that post is a year old


A post necro....?

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#1088 - 2015-11-28 17:10:47 UTC
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#1089 - 2015-11-28 19:33:47 UTC
Rain6637 wrote:
Not technically, it seems this thread just never died (wtf)



Hence the reference to post...not thread. Smile

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Koniforous
Tauren Transit
#1090 - 2016-01-22 13:34:16 UTC
SeaSaw
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#1091 - 2016-01-22 19:51:15 UTC
Good Sirs;

I read lots of this thread by people who claimed they were economists and futures traders etc. They talked about time, leasure time, and how if I can earn one plex working my real life job in less time than I can grind it out in game I should.

I have two scenarios:

One: suppose I can play Eve from work. If I play long enuf to buy a plex while I am at work does that mean I shouldn't grind ISK at work?

Two: suppose I work for CCP, does that mean even if I can play from work I should grind ISK?

your humble servent
SeaSaw
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#1092 - 2016-01-22 20:00:17 UTC
SeaSaw wrote:
Good Sirs;

I read lots of this thread by people who claimed they were economists and futures traders etc. They talked about time, leasure time, and how if I can earn one plex working my real life job in less time than I can grind it out in game I should.

I have two scenarios:

One: suppose I can play Eve from work. If I play long enuf to buy a plex while I am at work does that mean I shouldn't grind ISK at work?

Two: suppose I work for CCP, does that mean even if I can play from work I should grind ISK?

your humble servent
SeaSaw


Yes, grinding in a case where you can play from work might be a reasonable approach to take. I assume you are doing a low demand type of grinding, like semi-AFK mining/ratting, etc. Or where you have periods where you are simply waiting (e.g. invention).

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#1093 - 2016-01-22 23:38:51 UTC
SeaSaw wrote:

One: suppose I can play Eve from work. If I play long enuf to buy a plex while I am at work does that mean I shouldn't grind ISK at work?


The opportunity cost here might just be your job ;).
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#1094 - 2016-01-23 00:17:13 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
SeaSaw wrote:

One: suppose I can play Eve from work. If I play long enuf to buy a plex while I am at work does that mean I shouldn't grind ISK at work?


The opportunity cost here might just be your job ;).


There is that...

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

ZmajOgnjeniVuk
Doomheim
#1095 - 2016-01-29 11:12:14 UTC
tl;dr thread, plex is pricey Ugh
Cixi
#1096 - 2016-01-29 13:31:32 UTC
ZmajOgnjeniVuk wrote:
tl;dr thread, plex is pricey Ugh


tl;dr, prices are going up soon
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#1097 - 2016-01-29 16:07:51 UTC
Cixi wrote:
ZmajOgnjeniVuk wrote:
tl;dr thread, plex is pricey Ugh


tl;dr, prices are going up soon


Maybe, but I doubt it. The current upward trend coincides with the announcement that we'll get the SP extractors/injectors in February. My guess is that they'll keep going up for a bit then stabilize.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Buzz Orti
State War Academy
Caldari State
#1098 - 2016-02-14 20:04:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Buzz Orti
Aoife Fraoch wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Aoife Fraoch wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
There is little to no seasonality in the PLEX price time series. I have downloaded the data and checked for both monthly and weekly seasonality and found none.

As for bubbles and the trend in PLEX prices....

As for bubbles, here is the thing about them...they are very, very hard to predict.

Lets suppose that some guy named Bob had found a way to predict perfectly when a bubble was about to burst. Bob would then sell short at the peak and then buy when prices dropped dramatically making a killing. How often could Bob do this? Maybe 2-4 times then everyone would know...watch Bob. As soon as Bob starts selling short....oh ****. Get out!!! Bob, to try and maintain his profit margin might sell a bit earlier...but then so would everyone else. And this logic would repeat itself all the way back to the point that the bubble started to form.

Predicting bubbles and their peak is not possible. Of course some people appear to have gotten it "right" by consistently going against the consensus, but so what? Doing that means that eventually you'd be right, but the vast majority of the time you'll be wrong. People who then think such prognosticators are some sort of genius simply help assure why bubbles are so hard to predict.

Is the current PLEX price a bubble? I don't know. Maybe. I doubt it, but then again nobody really knows.


There does seem to be yearly seasonality and a general upwards trend. Thanks for posting your data as well, I had a bit of a look at it. I have been meaning to do more with timeseries and it was fun playing with the forecast library.

http://rpubs.com/randomGraphs/117046


How many models did you fit? That just seems odd. One year high the next low. I could buy something more like a traditional seasonal patter what with school/summer etc. But a year over year fluctuation....?

And did you try including some sort of autoregressive error term? Looking at the remainder graph and your Durbin-Watson statistic (although I don't have access to my texts with the tables for the Durbin-Watson tables) might want to consider adding in an autoregressive error term.


Sorry for the delay, irl has been a little unfriendly of late. Nothing serious, just time and energy consuming.

Frankly this was just something I threw together because it looked interesting, and it did seem that when you have daily data, with some of the trending that is bound to happen around games, you would get some weird cycles turning up and there would not be just one pattern.

Personally I am templed to say that the last year has been weird and has not behaved like the previous ones. And even just mentioning being able to buy sp with plex will continue to make it odd.

The first time serious decomposition I did was using the stl function (using loess) with the seasonal window of "periodic" it takes the mean instead of smoothing per a supplied lag. The function can take a number of other parametres like a trend window and so on. I used this with a number of stated seasonal periods as well (7 and 365.25), but thats in the code.

The tbats function from the forecast library is an interesting one. For one thing it has an insanely long name (TBATS model (Exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components)).

The options I had used were seasonal periods for both 7 and 365.25 on daily data with box.cox to true. If this was null then it would have used selected if they were to be used based on AIC.

trend and damped trend were not selected explicitly though damped was used. I should have included this in the original output:

> PlexAverage.tbats$parameters
$vect
[1] 1.246931e-06 8.484456e-01 8.181487e-01 -4.206490e-02 -6.835356e-07
[6] -3.498706e-04 -4.151820e-04 6.235535e-05

$control
$control$use.beta
[1] TRUE

$control$use.box.cox
[1] TRUE

$control$use.damping
[1] TRUE

$control$length.gamma
[1] 4

$control$p
[1] 0

$control$q
[1] 0

arama.errors was set true and used and fitted by AIC.

hope this answers your questions, its worth just looking at it yourself. I am relatively new to working with time series data anyway.

Yes, I found some API code from EVE Online's Developer's link, or the forum references for 3rd party tools.
However, I never tested them yet with no home internet.
(btw, this text data above was entered without the save draft function, since it works more like a military drone than other.)

I am looking for the data on my programmer, but I believe his EVE mail are on another account, which references I am trying to confirm.
I was asked for a quote of around 500m ISK however, or request for confirmation, there weas no replies.
Looks like he could not serve me, and that I would have to do the work myself (solo).
What's the point to pay 1.8 t ISK to find someone trustworthy and not have enough to pay for programming left?
It's more cost effiicient to do the work myself and register the transferrable rights and descriptions for my own credit.

1.184, 1.183, 1.182

Builds ship in empty Quafe bottle.

Cixi
#1099 - 2016-02-15 10:58:29 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Cixi wrote:
ZmajOgnjeniVuk wrote:
tl;dr thread, plex is pricey Ugh


tl;dr, prices are going up soon


Maybe, but I doubt it. The current upward trend coincides with the announcement that we'll get the SP extractors/injectors in February. My guess is that they'll keep going up for a bit then stabilize.


Looks like I was totally wrong on this, but you must admit seeing the huge increase in demand, the prices should have gone up

https://i.imgur.com/CzVcetq.png

So either of this happened :

- Plex sales had an effect on prices
- Some people cashed out their PLEX stocks
Alhira Katserna
Deep Space Exploration And Exploitation
#1100 - 2016-02-15 12:20:47 UTC
Cixi wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Cixi wrote:
ZmajOgnjeniVuk wrote:
tl;dr thread, plex is pricey Ugh


tl;dr, prices are going up soon


Maybe, but I doubt it. The current upward trend coincides with the announcement that we'll get the SP extractors/injectors in February. My guess is that they'll keep going up for a bit then stabilize.


Looks like I was totally wrong on this, but you must admit seeing the huge increase in demand, the prices should have gone up

https://i.imgur.com/CzVcetq.png

So either of this happened :

- Plex sales had an effect on prices
- Some people cashed out their PLEX stocks


Actually the latter. Same reason why Gecko, Genolution and several other products that are longterm speculations crash in price atm. Everyone and their mother wants these Skill Extractors and Injectors.