Market Discussions

Those numbers are the prices, not the number of orders.

Any issue you may have with the "circlejerk of margin trading" is misplaced, as those people are not responsible for the PLEX price, they just follow the price up and down flipping from buy to sell. In fact those people actually provide liquidity in the market, which is a good thing.

The greater fool theory wouldn't be applicable to them either. I think you are thinking about speculators, who are an entirely different type of trader.

Ssh...... I think that's meant to be a secret, they don't want you scaring the wabbits (but thats the price by the way)

As to whether, there are many currently buying plex off the market to use? Only CCP have the answer. But you may well be not far off the right one.

You're smugposting at the wrong time, try again later today.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/3nbzre/plex_is_now_11b_the_lowest_it_has_been_in_a_while/

See CCP Terminus reply.
"The speculation bubble Bursting"

http://i.imgur.com/BcqBPLR.png

Time for smugpost yet?
Too soon?
Ok I'll wait, theres still "a few " who might not want to get caught with their trousers around their ankles.

Edit:- eve central seems to be down. Probably nothing to worry about........

http://i.imgur.com/4GuHWe6.png

So we're just a little ahead of schedule then?

You may have noticed that this bubble has been accelerating and has not been a straight line increase.
If CCP believe it is a bubble, you might need to reconsider your position.

As the consumption of plex has been decreasing, this has lead to the majority of transactions becoming either Trading speculative or a combination of longer term speculation and storage.

The tenuous link between "value" and price as a commodity has been broken to the point where consumers have a negligable influence on demand, they are simply not buying in any meaningful quantity. So the price escalation can only become exponential as there is now no restriction to those seeking ever greater profits/margins other than other players in the market.
Effectively they chase the market up hoping for a greater fool to take their investment, and let them take a profit. Rinse and repeat.

This continues until there is an event that moves expectations in the opposite direction.

Edit:- later clarified as a personal view not CCP Official position. Possibly something like CCP posting on reddit that the price drop is the result of the plex sale and the bursting of a speculative bubble today?

This then accelerates in a downward/inverse direction, slowly at first, giving the smart trader an opportunity to exit their position, then rapidly, for some catastrophically, until the value of consumption reaches a point to once again encourage consumers, -as in those that redeem Plex- to re-enter the market. that is where market traders should prepare to buy back in as it will heavily undershoot. I predict no price other than I expect it to eventually settle at a price where we saw people utilising Plex to redeem for pilots services rather than players buying to save or work as an investment. How long ago was that? 300m? 500m? CCP will know.

It is possible that we are witnessing this process starting.

The process becomes so unstable, that what would have once been a trivial or even normal event, such as a Plex sale, or Fanfest offer, can transform unexpectedly into a black swan event. (Even though not the ORIGINAL meaning of the term, as the real world has some controls to stop this behaviour, so a Black swan event is totally unexpected. usually, "oops! Missed that.") this is not unexpected with Plex, only the trigger will be unpredictable.

A better example than the house price market in the US might be another event that was occuring at the same time, that had a somewhat impactful effect.

So, How are your sub prime bonds doing as an ever increasing investment now?
Keep hoping the price will return to previous levels?

As above, such a change in value, has devastating effects on those Investors who are heavily engaged in trading or holding the product/instrument.

At least Plex has SOME uses and value. So there is a point where they will be bought and consumed again.
Maybe CCP will allow us to buy out bankrupt speculators at 10c on the dollar?

Obviously

Until it doesn't.

Actually I can respect him trying to dig out of that hole, he probably had a phone call or two after the first post.
It possibly was worse than the first one though, on second thoughts.
Best stop digging. The market is unstable enough as it is, It won't take much.

This may not be the trigger event, under the circumstances, any more than the clear market interference by someone a week last Friday, or the Plex sale, or whatever will be said at fanfest.

If CCP however say or admit publicly, they are dissatisfied with the current state of affairs, then try to leave the room in an orderly manner?

It is much better to have an orderly market withdrawal, than a crash. It would be better for all involved to share the losses.

It has moved on a little, He has made it clear that it is his own opinion and implied it is a bit of a troll (possibly) it's best to put this on one side, and see what they really mean when they are deciding what to say and do officially.

Agreed, It would not be in CCP's best interest to crash the price of plex. CCP could of course slowly drive the price down, as much as the search For ever increasing yield by players in the markets pushes it up.

Remember, there is no right price, there is however a functional price, where it is viable to both exchange rw cash for plex to sell in game, and to exchange Isk for plex to redeem for pilots services. A point where both are equally functional and viable.

This is where CCP's interests, and players interests go hand in hand.

For those who argue that high exchange values drives rw plex sales, so that must be great for Great for CCP? remember that the botters and RMT players will not have disappeared.

They will change techniques, the minutes show that the war against bots, is going really well, but apparently the increased risks associated with botting may be Encouraging them to Credit card and other fraud to get plex, as the high exchange also makes this greatly more viable and profitable. And also remember Credit card companies chargeback as well as causing issues for the retailer. So overvalued Plex is not exactly in CCP's best interests either, but conversely in the RMT operators best interest. The exact opposite of what some have been claiming, quite falsely.

Good to see that CCP are on top of this and are not fooled.

I know that some hate the word balance, but really balancing these disparate needs is in everyones best interest in the medium to long term.

Those who have a significant interest in keeping Plex high for the natural and obvious reason of self interest will not agree however.
They are entitled to their opinion, whether credible or not.

This is the most sensible thing you've said.