Market Discussions

Very true, I have often wondered, why they feel they need to set their prices at a level to deter customers?

I would like to believe their marketing department has a good handle on things, but the occasional offer where short subscriptions or small plex purchases are better value than the large ones doesn't inspire confidence.

Uhhmmm what?

I get nothing in time series analysis since I did not do any ...

Additionally, judging by your judgment , why should I bother trying if it is not worth the try ?

Btw, I just made my first easy 2 billion earlier today in the last 14 hours hours...
(At that rate I'd make over 700 billion year 1 of trading.)


And I'll even hide the bottom line to justify raising undue suspicion and lie about it for good faith.

The proper interpretation of those related data was meant in the following sense:
1. the high prices (of the PLEx) = the current high prices of the PLEx or price spike...
2. yearly stable increase = (or could be interpreted as) the recurrent yearly increases in around the "back to school" period which runs from around September to October.
Note that, even for that period, after paying attention, is from around mid-August to before October.
The PLEx peak of that period from the previous years at the exact same time period, or approximately the same time period, extends to beyond that time frame.
Perhaps due to extended side effect of the sudden change in the player base or player base behavior.
(Now, if you were to review the above interpretation, you would find there are more than one points condensed.)
3. yearly stable increase percentage =
- 3.a. the yearly stable increase, as per 2. above, is related to the fact that the PLEx value increases steadily from years to years not only at the same period but also by the same percentage.
Which leads to :
- 3.b. yearly stable increase percentage = which is the same percentage increase (stable by the way) as mentionned in 3.a. above.
- 3.c. it doesn't really matter how many times I would try to make it seem like if it made no-sense, it is still facts.
Just to interpret it as non-sense doesn't justify the results or condition or the player base behaviors affecting those facts , in those given conditions.
4. affect the player base or logged accounts decline ... = as per 3.b. above, again, and 3.c. and 3.a., on top of that, it all leads to the exact same outcome , conclusion, no matter how much cover up or attempt to change the facts.



What do you mean by PCU data?
Do you mean Peak Concurrent User by PCU data?




The solution to, or the crux of the matter was that,
players logged less alts accounts , but the same amounts of online players remained.

Less PLEx supply = less PLExed accounts for Alt being active ingame = More PLEx demand = Higher PLEx value.

A higher PLEx value is not necessarily bad, it just has some outcomes.
Some of which outcomes of the PLEx value being higher are , decline in numbers.


I didn't read your whole post and I don't think I will have the time to read it much more or at a faster rate.


However, contrary to you, I don't believe it would be a good idea to just contradict you and make you seem as bad or with an F in some course you didn't register with.
(Unless I don't have you on file.?)


Edit:
(+There isn't much leeway to what I can express without raising the risk of losing my account.
It wouldn't be the first time others tried.
Also, to be honest, I didn't read the whole on player decline and which data was exactly refered to in this player decline thread.
I interpreted as the fact that there was less players logged in, or that there were less player pilots logged in.
I am sure that this does not affect the inactive account, as it would mean that 30,000 + account went through the Bazaar or were closed.)

Can I EVE Mail you outside of the forums?

Can you be reached for communication otherwise?

It seems to me that your scrutiny is not as accurate as you make it seem.
You seem to prefer to get away with mixing up my facts with how you like to misinterpret them for your own credit.
You also seem fond of investing into systems to discredit me if not to reuse those systems to discredit others.

All research aside:
Where can "the data for your model with a trend variable to avoid the problem of perfect mutil-collinearity" be analysed?
Are there studies on this? If so who has done those studies, and are there ongoing studies?
I highly doubt that a "Dummy variable" will hardly be able to pass tests of integrity in regards to the related statements advanced.

The change in price is 10% to 20% , steadily repeating over 3 years practically to potentially up 4 years which would be next year.

There is no back to school effect in PLEx however the same change occurred at the exact same critical creeping point.
The reverse is more true, that the fact that the player base does try to buy more PLEx to pay for Alt account since they have less time to earn the PLEx value of their accounts to but those PLEx, affects the value of the PLEx.


If you don't mind, I would like to use your statements when you say that my "facts" don't stand up to scrutiny, for copyright ...
The fact that my "facts" don't stand up to your judgment or indictments perhaps is more close to reality.
I would want to transfer those rights to my descendants since it would be rather peculiar if it proved to be false...
It would make it very hard for them to discern the truth in regards to security related facts.


By the way, what kind of use Your monthly dummy variable or any other flags you may be using, even if those flags are for jet fighter decent on an aircraft carrier, or even the largest new carriers, did you refer to.?.
And how does that relate to time period when players leave and ways to divert from facts?


(Besides, I am busy trading at the moment, and probably won't have much time to reply until the weekend.
+ The Android Piezo screen input I used to post with free internet access from was damaged yesterday or 2 days ago and can no longer be used safely. That device is due to the grinder as soon as the rest of the reusable data will have been transferred to safety, even if that means out of the country. I also intend to keep it a but longer as it still seems to work even with 50% functional input area remaining.)


Edit :
As for facts scrutiny ratio...
If it is really worth it, I can invest more into increasing my facts scrutiny ratios, even to over 200% efficiency level just to prove a point.
I can register patents for it as well, on top of the already registered copyrights, if necessary or appropriate.
However, for some reason, I tend to favor more rigid mathematical concepts than Dummy Variable to achieve my statements and goals.

Edit 2:
If it is not worth to invest more into performing additional analysis, then your data is not going to be worth integrating into my scope of analysis.
In fact, how can I rely on what you are advancing since you are not giving me a reasonable sample of the references provided?

Edit 3:
Granted it does divert me from the conclusion I reached, but I do not know the benefit of that diversion yet.
Perhaps it is of more use to you or you have some benefit from it which I could not yet find or verify.
Either way, I don't think that I was talking about what you are interpreting and how you interpret me.
I'm sure that I was referring to other models most of which I do intend to create myself.

I don't have your data and mine is very limited and for that reason will not cover the scope of the matter.

However, there are degree or ratios of exactitude in regards to the PLEx Price changing value at the same time as the school year start , or the "back to school" period.

I wasn't the first one to mention it, and the PLEx price raise of last year or 2 years ago in 2013 was referred to as that time period, during the back to school period.


Maybe it is 60% related or 40% related , I don't have the exact or even approximate ratios of those more specific factors yet, and I would have to invest more efforts into defining them or even the methods to derive their number.


... But it is diverting me from the fact.


Edit:
Oh yes...
I can save PLEx for next year as the price may change during the school period, or even in 2 years in 2017, as a speculation.
However, other risks such as security matters, or the time it takes to have an account un-ban diminishes the value or profit.
(Not to be omitted out of the equation for profit or return on investment.)

By the way, I do design systems, and also, calculations systems, yes.

The data is available here. It is in Excel, I imported it into another software program to analyze it to remove the ISK from the daily average price. You'll have to add your additional variables. Excel can handle linear regression analysis, but it is somewhat limited.



Not trying to be a jerk here...but, so now there is no "back to school" effect, but a reverse one? Or that number of alts is the driving factor?



I am not sure what you are asking here, but dummy variables are simple variables that take on a value of 1 if a condition holds, zero otherwise. They are helpful in analyzing seasonality, marginalizing out outliers, or even to change the slope of a trend variable. I wanted to see if there were any seasonal effects in PLEX prices after controlling for the trend. I found none.

As for the PCU data I have looked at the graphs of the data but was not able to down load the data itself. Still by looking at the two graphs it seems unlikely that PCU numbers would provide much explanation for PLEX prices of vice-versa.

So I am highly skeptical of the claims about PLEX prices and what the portend for the game. In fact, what passes for analysis on the forums when it comes to markets is just terrible. Look at the front page with claims of manipulation and crashes and even a goofy reference to T2 BPOs (note they didn't crash because of a bubble, the implication, but because the last round of industry changes indirectly nerfed T2 BPOs into the ground). Now most of them are worthless except as collectors items. Now that there are infinite slots, POS' not being necessary, and so forth why invest in a T2 BPO that will take several years to recoup your initial investment?

For one thing, you seem to try to put the onus on me.
Number 2, I didn't do anything that is getting my accounts banned.
#3, you mention that perhaps I should cease such activities so that my "ban risk" = 0?
- How can I logically cease to do an activity that I did not start or never did if that will lower my "ban risk" = 0?
- Are you suggesting that I start the activity I did not do while investing to set up electronic systems to detect who and when and how I would be asked to do such a thing which would be illegal in fact.
- My ban risk is way lower than zero.
I don't think it would be all that good to see that risk go up to zero which is the balance between good and wrong.
I have way too many accounts invested to make it worthwhile.
As for the PLEx instance itself, it was only targeted to 1 account and so I got 5 PLEx on another account after.



Right but
You'd have to show me the programs you used that switch, dummy variable or flag on.
How can I guess what you are referring to without any tangible example, references, or otherwise facts to refer to.
I don't mean to steal your secrets or rights for free but if you would give me a better idea of what you are advancing I could understand what you are referring to more.
On the other hand, I could verify the subjects you are referring to such as :
1. seasonality,
2. marginalizing outliers,
3. change slope of a trend variable.
4. seasonal effects.

I don't have the PCU data and I don't have any graphs, nor their storage location, nor their data transfer related systems or data.

As for the PLEx prices being portend for the game, I do not believe so.
However, I like to keep my numbers accurate and to analyse where things stand at in the greater scope or rather, in the larger image.

What passes on the forums is a lot worst than terrible to me, and quite frankly not even 25% just at all, although it seems right from the other end (or hand, funnily enough) at a higher level ratio.

Again, I don't want to intimidate or even have a bad influence on young analyst, but their scope of understanding cannot match most of the knowledge involved by themselves.

I would invest in a T2 BPO if I could loot it for free and , to create my own items, science wise instead of informing the market.

I have never invested much into science and research and manufacturing which are all related to science but I would prefer this than even Market PvP (which is inevitable as other PvP).

I would like to analyse the market and capital systems to verify the relative ROI or integrate additional factors such as source of module controls and risk to gather loot to ownerships ratio. Etc...

How can you be so naive? Just because there is no activity now of the players that do this Sierra, maybe they have made their cut, maybe they wait now to start the cycle again after the market cooled down. We dont know, but I know that there is no reasonable way to draw conclusions like you do.