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Plex Prices

First post
Author
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#401 - 2015-04-21 15:21:38 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:

Total production is around 2.5Q per year, total destruction around 0.75Q per year.


Production is not what you need to look at, if you wish to understand these inflows.

Ideally, this ISK has to be matched to resources, on a monthly basis, that are either mined or obtained otherwise through different means, such as salvaging.

I emphasise the word resources. Blink

CONCORD here acts as a universal bank, essentially expanding credit, and when everyone gets a loan they want, we know what happens to asset prices next.

This topic will keep coming up with ever-greater intensity, as ISK accumulation grows with there being no safety measures in place, such as a Progressive tax, or a Capital Gains tax, meaning we can end up with major disruptions even in the most liquid of commodities and resources - as could already be observed in 2014 plex. Blink

A flat transaction/broker's fee is helpless in averting disaster.

Market McSelling Alt wrote:

Did you even watch your own video?


Isn't my video, and it was posted on the topic of plex prices. Blink

Quote:
Trit might have gone up 300% since game start, but I guess you can't guess where Zyd, or Mega or the high ends sans Nox has gone?


You're telling me this? Big smile

And yet, there has been a net increase in everything Tech 1. Should I spill the beans what will happen again on April 28th?

Quote:
Bet you forgot to mention how CCP deliberately changed production requirements for ships in the specific groups you are pointing out.


It doesn't matter for the end user what are the causes of the increase in price.

No one will remember these new Null ore changes six months from now, and increased cost will stay with us forever.

Quote:
You cannot argue with CCP's own numbers, own stats, own graphs and then turn around and point to them for support. You didn't even watch your own video.


As much as I like the fact that they've kept this whole Colossal from collapsing catastrophically over the years, there has been great inflation in all Tech 1 hulls. Mind you, certain amount of inflation is required for healthy economic growth. Blink

If the whole of Tech 1 is a non-factor to you, then I have no arguments against you. Sad
Priest Amarr
Temple's Gate
#402 - 2015-04-21 16:23:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Priest Amarr
There is a misconception about inflation which actually was created by real economists on the purpose of confusing masses about it's real effects. The real measurement of inflation can't be made through some sort of index or product baskets. They only want you to believe it so the the numbers can be adjusted (manipulated) at will.

Inflation is about the size of the liquid injected into an economy out of thin air. This doesn't necessarily mean an increase to low end product prices because in most cases majorities purchasing power doesn't increase. In other terms only the top tier (of people/players) benefit from such liquidity. Look at the real world examples: While the housing market was crashing (due to lack of liquidity for middle class) price of prime locations was increasing. Look at the fine arts market. Ten years ago 100mil was a big deal, today 200mil seems like business as usual. The price of high quality food goes up, the price of junk food goes down. The price of high end clothing increases way above official inflation, the price of low end clothing decreases. One may argue the price increase of prime goods/services is irrelevant but in reality it creates an enormous gap between rich and poor, and put's many things out of the reach of middle class. This is an affect of hidden inflation.

Same happens in Eve. The trillions of isk sitting in some accounts won't affect the low end market. Their isk won't create a real demand for majority of goods, but the affects of inflation (hence their bigger than ever wallet sizes) will put a pressure on plex market. Because plex is the only in game commodity that has real convertibility. Compared to ships, modules and even BPO's, plex is an actual alternative to liquid isk. Therefore richer top tier gets, more demand they create for plex. Or let me put it this way, richer they get, more easily they take the control of the market and set the prices at will.

These things were argued 7-8 years ago and there was no plex back then. I remember CCP hiring an economist and making a big deal out of it. From the very beginning they knew the inflationary nature of Eve economy yet they had no choice but allow it to go on since they didn't want to cripple the growth of this (experimental) virtual economy. The affects of in game inflation is not very visible to casual player and only becomes apparent when you want to buy plex, or finance your operations for competing with other alliances. So it's not a big deal for CCP.

It's a big deal for some people though, because it makes the competition with top tier less and less possible every passing day. Or should I say, makes it impossible.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#403 - 2015-04-21 18:02:50 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
ISK:plex:AUR exchange rate is about to see some changes - http://web.ccpgamescdn.com/newssystem/media/67122/1/AUR.png

Sauce: http://community.eveonline.com/news/news-channels/eve-online-news/aurum-package-changes/

The difference is 15% on average between direct AUR purchases and plex exchange rate.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#404 - 2015-04-22 16:12:33 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


It would seem the anticipation & deployment of the SKINs system has sparked a healthy impulsive move back to 1b ISK - http://i.imgur.com/eoJmOTj.png

Levels to watch out for: 847 mln, 866 mln, 897 mln and of course the prize itself. Blink

http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/ship-customization-time-to-show-some-skin/

With the SKINs system being received positively, having been fully detailed & reviewed by now, and previous BPC Edition Collection temporarily inaccessible on the NEX - All points to the capsuleers stocking up on PLEX, in order to exchange for items of value & worth on the AURUM Store come April 28th for either personal, or entrepreneural goals in mind.

This Patchday will see an addition of 102 Brand new SKINs for spaceship of all types & sizes: from Frigates and Battlecruisers to Freighters and Titans - a compliment to the previous batch of around one hundred variations.

The Power of Two promotion also appears to be making a come back- http://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/33btmr/psa_power_of_two_seems_to_be_back_o/

Interesting, interesting times. Smile
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#405 - 2015-04-25 02:00:45 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


Curious.

Very curious.

There is some sort of curious formation developing in the technical price of PLEX... As you know, following the fundamental change back in Nov 2014, PLEX topped short of 1bn mark, and currently the market appears to be carving out a strange right shoulder looking thingy - http://i.imgur.com/1IiUUA4.png

Perhaps, outward perspective can help with things - http://i.imgur.com/GHYKQxh.png

It would be most unfortunate for everyone involved, were that to happen. On the plus side, the November peak could be a left shoulder instead!

Some further perspective, posted Sept, 2014 - https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4990317

All that is needed in both scenarios... is a little push. Cause and Effect - Effect and Cause - Was November policy shift a causal thing, or the effect?

Interesting times™
Magnius Dark
Omni Galactic
Central Omni Galactic Group
#406 - 2015-04-25 10:43:54 UTC
Do you guys think that people will stop buying plexes and the price of an PLEX will rise up (alot)
And the market will slow down?
And that will also men that this game will be grind to plex or just not free to play.
What do you think?
Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#407 - 2015-04-25 16:04:45 UTC
SKINs will be a huge new pool of demand for PLEX. Because of EVE's complex ecosystem, you don't need to be willing to buy SKINs for money to get them - you just have to pair people willing to buy isk for money (purchasing then selling PLEX) with people willing to spend isk for SKINs (using isk to buy PLEX to convert to aurum, or just using isk to buy SKINs off the market if somebody else has already done the work).

This gives PLEX three extremely valuable intrinsic uses:

(1) Gametime (subscription or multi-character)
(2) Asset with fiat currency tether / hedge against inflation (reasonable to assume 10 PLEX now and 10 PLEX in the future will hold similar purchasing power, less reasonable to assume that of most in-game items or currencies)
(3) Converting to Aurum to purchase SKINs (and to a lesser extent clothing)

Of course speculation, manipulation, scamming, honorable PLEX tank, and other uses contribute to the picture too. And if speculation in the past has been hard enough, there may be stockpiled PLEX to meet the demand for Aurum, at least initially. So PLEX prices might not double tomorrow, but the SKIN system gives me more reason to believe PLEX will at least remain "expensive" if not spike in value.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#408 - 2015-04-25 16:15:28 UTC
Only one assumption clouds this judgment - that the SKINs will be selling at the PLEX exchange rate.

Purchasing AURUM directly already puts the seller at an advantage by at least 15%, which is the average AUR per $ difference between these two methods. We will labour very hard indeed to undermine even the AURUM sellers, with our mountains of supply. Blink

Current exchange rate stands at 242k vs 210k ISK per 1 AURUM.
Coelomate Tian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#409 - 2015-04-25 16:28:48 UTC
Good point. There will be a huge difference between the 'rate' of existing skinned ship SKINs (stockpiles, as you note, will be huge) and new SKINs (which must start life as Aurum before coming into existence Tuesday). It will also be interesting to see if certain new SKINs are popular can command a temporary premium to the PLEX/isk/Aurum rate - I'm going to try and be online arbitraging like a crazy person if opportunities pop up soon after the patch.
Suur Ala
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#410 - 2015-04-26 16:15:00 UTC
GankYou wrote:

Perhaps, outward perspective can help with things - http://i.imgur.com/GHYKQxh.png


Sorry to be a little off-topic, but what tool is that and how is it pulling market history from that far back? Thanks in advance!
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#411 - 2015-04-26 17:34:09 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Suur Ala wrote:
GankYou wrote:

Perhaps, outward perspective can help with things - http://i.imgur.com/GHYKQxh.png


Sorry to be a little off-topic, but what tool is that and how is it pulling market history from that far back? Thanks in advance!


The charting is provided by the https://element-43.com web-site using data from CREST.

http://eve-markets.net has price history going all the way to 2008 on most commodities, though volume data is not always available.

You're welcome. Smile
Suur Ala
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#412 - 2015-04-26 19:39:57 UTC
Thanks!
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#413 - 2015-04-29 04:17:27 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
The price has retraced 50% of the fall from the 964 mil top back in Nov of 2014.

There's ample time and room to get your supers SKINs and sell them at 100-150% mark-up. Blink
Jori McKie
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#414 - 2015-04-29 09:21:51 UTC
PLEX will rise until EVE population is more or less saturated with SKINS with several dips in between.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#415 - 2015-04-29 15:22:22 UTC
Jori McKie
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#416 - 2015-04-29 15:51:40 UTC
GankYou wrote:
Thank you, captain McKie.


Someone has to state the obvious ;)

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar

Angelica Everstar
#417 - 2015-04-29 15:52:24 UTC
Well... there is likely a sale and soon to be dev blog that is going to affect PLEX a fair bit :)

§ Current Bond AE09 1 Trillion / Acc. 4,5t ISK

ƒ Want to become a better trader ?

¢ Pls help support EVEs charities!

@EveEntrepreneur

GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#418 - 2015-04-30 17:49:43 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


http://community.eveonline.com/news/news-channels/eve-online-news/10-discount-on-all-plex-sales/
Quote:
We are happy to announce that over the course of the weekend, the EVE Community can enjoy a 10% discount on all PLEX sales!

Whether you're looking to pick up that sought after ship skin, activate multiple character training, or reactivate an account for yourself or a wingman, there's never been a better time to pick up a PLEX.


The right shoulder is coming along, nicely - http://i.imgur.com/GHYKQxh.png

CCP pls ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ gib shorts
Koniforous
Tauren Transit
#419 - 2015-04-30 19:08:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Koniforous
Gank, where do you see plex prices at in December? Based on your graphing, and also in separate based on your intuition? I'm guessing this will be a temporary damper to the price rise and when its done plex will recover quickly to slightly below 900mil, and achieve ~1bil by December.

Edit: How do plex for goods affect the price of plex? Anyone know? I've never bothered to investigate. I would think it would increase price, and if ccp gets approval for the Nepal plex for good prices could retrace much fast....
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#420 - 2015-04-30 20:01:22 UTC
Seven hundred mil this coming Summer, provided the expansions CCP are planning to put out are a success. Blink