Market Discussions

Because at around 2.3k for oxytopes, assuming a moderate-towards-high skills Covetor with just T1 gear (for uber-cheapness) used for both ice and ore mining, mining Blue Ice becomes roughly as profitable as mining some of the lousier highsec ores (before that, mining any ore, selling it, then and blue ice is better for your bottom line), so the only people who REALLY have an interest in ice mining (in particular Blue Ice mining) being people who are either mathematically challenged, hopelessly masochistic, or mostly interested in the AFK nature of (Blue) ice mining.
When oxytopes go somewhat over 2.3k and Blue Ice roughly over 700k per block, it becomes more profitable in ISK/hour to mine Blue Ice as opposed to mining junk ore in that cheapo barge, so THAT is when people will REALLY START TO CONSIDER that they might be attracted to mining Blue Ice as opposed to, say, continuing to mine Veldspar or Pyroxeres or whatever, in other words, when Goon interdiction measures will finally start to encounter some SIGNIFICANT increases in potential targets.

If Goons can break over and roughly maintain (or even keep increasing) that oxytopes price level in spite of the (amount unknowable) additional quantities of product that will unavoidably and eventually slip past Goon Gallente-space-wide interdiction, THEN I will be convinced that it's the interdiction that's mainly the driver behind the price spike, as opposed to other non-interdiction related factors.