Player Features and Ideas Discussion

Okay, for those who need special help....

The idea of correlation does not cause causation is so that if you happen to notice that X is highly correlated with Y you don't just assume X causes Y, when in fact it could be Y causing X or that both X and Y are also correlated why Z, but it is Z that is causing both X and Y.

Does this kind of warning apply to AFK cloaking? No. Why? Because we know that without local AFK cloaking would not happen...ergo, it is also the case that local is causing AFK cloaking. Would AFK cloaking happen without local? No. Would it happen with local? Yes. Causation has been determined, not by mere empirical observation, but also our understanding of the mechanics in Eve Online.

THAT is the point of correlation does not causation. When in the absence of any other understanding you should be careful of accepting correlation as implying causation.

We don't have that absence of other understanding in this case.

Or let me put it this way, there is a metric fuckton of data out there on the intertubes. If I were to go out and download all that data and and start doing regression analyses on all that data the law of large numbers says I'll find lots of correlations between variables that makes absolutely no f*cking sense at f*cking all. I could find a correlation between things like the sales taxes raised in Minnesota and the stock market. Does that mean that the sales tax in Minnesota is driving the stock market? Probably not. Why do we conclude this, because our overall knowledge and experience tells us the stock market is driven by more than just what is going on in Minnesota.

In this specific instance of AFK cloaking, we are not discussing two variables picked at from a plethora of data sets out there simply because of a strong degree of correlation. We are talking about something we all understand.

Givens:
Local: It shows all pilots currently in a given system.

Cloaking devices: They allow a pilot at a safe to avoid any and all attempts to find them.

Hypothesis:
AFK cloaking: Makes use of local and cloaking devices to f*ck with PvE pilots heads.

Evidence: Pilots AFK cloaking in high value systems, all the whining on the forums about said activity.

Note the evidence supports the hypothesis....which is where the causation is!



WTFATYA? WHS? Talk about trying to obfuscate.

If Local => PvE => PvP => AFK cloaking...then local is still the root cause. Christ, don't you guys have kids? They are masters of root cause analysis.



Really? And your evidence for this AFK cloaking is....? Now you are just making stuff up.

BTW, you kind of contradict yourself above. They can maintain a high enough level of preparedness...but many can't. Which is it.



Oh bunk. When you were ganked, if you alliance has 2 super pilots and a couple of hictors there would have been enough pilots to deal with the situation. You once again exaggerate to the extreme. You are basically making your "infinite ships" argument, which is just pure nonsense.

That's all great, except you are wrong.
You are picking a single example of how to show causation, then you are assuming that because the example fits, it is the cause. But it STILL isn't the cause, it's still the METHOD OF OBSERVATION.
The cause of AFK cloaking is down to the ability to safely cloak 24/7. Without that, no AFK cloaking exists, regardless of what method of observation exists.
If you removed local for example, and replaced it with an effort based system, AFK cloaking still exists.
Even if you just removed local and watched gate flashes counting pilots in and pilots out, AFK cloaking still exists.
Sure, local increases the EFFECTIVENESS of AFK cloaking, but it is not the cause.

I didn't miss that at all. Like I said, that's decides the effectiveness of AFK cloaking, it's not the cause. If you made yourself known to have arrived in a system and the inhabitants watched the gates and your online status, you could still AFK cloak. It would be considerably less effective, sure, but it would still be possible.

And how do you not need a cloak to achieve the same effect? If you are talking about being docked, that's totally different, since you have a single point of exit. It's not possible for you to come back to being active, then suddenly appear at any point in the solar system without warning.

I see what you are doing, you will continue to argue that local is the cause because it fits your agenda, but it isn't. To say the two are related and even to say the removal of local would pretty much remove AFK cloaking is true. But to say it's the cause is fundamentally wrong, and is being said to push the idea that any solution must involve the removal of local. Other solutions not involving local are both possible and valid. You not liking those other solutions does not invalidate them.

But... but... but... my risk-free semi-afk pve!

Children! We havent even concluding AFK cloaking is an issue, much less that it should be removed!
AFK cloaking is a feature and working as intended.

Actually Andy made a compelling argument it is not an issue at all. People find a way around it that renders it nearly irrelevant....so no issue, no need to nerf anything.

Just go with the status quo.

A> AFK cloakers think they are messing with the minds of PVE pilots and that is the cause, not local. Its all in the AFK cloaker's heads. People whine because renters usually pay for specific systems and it is sometimes difficult to go through alliance channels to get permissions to move operations to other systems not rented by their corp. People prefer to use the space that they are renting. Its a matter of sovereign rights and ownership.

B> I started my Eve career going straight into whs with my corp and have since lived in whs for about 1 year in various holes at various times. The fact that you are not familiar with the common practice of sitting in a pos cloaked or in open space cloaked for hours on end in a wormhole shows that you do not have much experience living there. Yes, there was a time when a ship could float cloaked in a pos.

Sufficient preparedness can be maintained in a wh depending on a) the corp/alliance's activity levels, b) how whs are watched and cycled, and c) ship doctrines. A wh corp with moderate activity can maintain fairly strong levels of preparedness against threats limited b wh mass and lack of cynos and supers.

C> 1st, my alliance (Red Alliance) could not have possibly known what would come through that cyno and you know it. They would have been foolish to deploy 2 supers and a couple of hictors. 2nd, Red Alliance was failing and everyone knew it, so the idea that they would have any kind of defense ready is laughable.

Trust me, pvp escalations are not "pure nonsense." They happen all the time. Bridge an overwhelming force with extra capitals on standby. If the other side escalates, then bridge your ready caps and pull more onto standby. Continue onto your blob wins. This is where the term "blob warfare" comes from and why so many people hate it, because of the cyno and the super which broke Eve null sec.

If the cyno was modified so that bridged ships could not immediately engage in combat, blob warfare and AFK cloaking would disappear; so therefore cynos cause AFK cloaking (and blobbing).

Yes, the very base reason that AFK cloaking happens is because the person doing it wants too. Granted, but they are successful at it because of local.

How do we know they are successful at it?

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=2762387#post2762387

There is a plethora of evidence right there.



I'm sure it happens, but look no WH pilot is here complaining. Why? Because the psychological aspects are not present. And, are you sitting AFK in your own hole? Well color me shocked. You aren't doing it for the same reasons as the guy in K-space. You know this, thus you are being disingenuous on this point.



Of course not, but if you had fit a tank...you might have had a small chance of a rescue group coming in. In my alliance we've rescued tackled carriers in the past.



Actually no, you'd not want an overwhelming force initially because then you would not get the escalation. The other side would not take such obvious bait.

Your lack of actual experience in large scale combat is evident here.

Could it escalate? Yeah, it could. Which is where knowing what is going on in your area is a good thing. Is there are large Solar presence and is an escalation likely? If so, well dude you're f*cked. Sorry about the carrier loss. If not, and it is most likely a solo super looking for "easy kills" then perhaps counter dropping is not all that crazy. But given your lack of tank and the dps of a super, my guess is you were dead pretty fast. Hence my comment that you had a small chance.



So would lots of warfare. Cynos would just be used for movement ops and likely nothing more.

Bolded the part you seemed to have over looked.

NO. The AFK Cloaker is "successful" at system camping because with about 30 mil ISK in a cyno stealth bomber he is able to OWN a sovereign system for which another corp is paying billions for each month, and there IS NO DIRECT COUNTER against him and NO RISK TO HIM. And that PISSES OFF those who are PAYING for a system which the cloaky cyno mechanism renders impossible to defend 24/7. THAT is why you have so many afk cloaky threads linked there on your first page. The problem is not that the cloaky cannot be countered (wormholes prove this), the problem is that the CYNO CANNOT BE COUNTERED when it is CLOAKED, except sometimes through VAST and CONTINUOUS EFFORTS to purge all assault forces within cyno range. Since carriers jump very long distances (about 15 ly), it is impractical to clear hostile carrier fleets from attack range. But as you see, EVERY ONE OF THESE ISSUES revolves around CYNOS. Without cynos, SOLO afk cloaking would have very little threat value and would not disrupt ops, so you see that without cynos there would be no SOLO AFK cloaking.


Why are wh pilots not complaining? Because they do not have to worry about cynos, supers, or fleets exceeding their wh mass limits. THAT is why! Sure the reasons for AFK cloaking are different, but wh space is the only space devoid of local that we can point to as an established example of how people behave without local. WHs also show how residents can defend their own ops in the absence of cynos and supers if they have enough activity 24/7.



No, there was zero chance that any kind of tank would have made any difference at all. Ironically, I did kill the SB and force the Panther off the field and survive another couple of minutes after all that. But my Falcon alt was useless because supers can be NEITHER jammed NOR pointed normally. Red Alliance is Russian speaking and my corp was failing at the same time that they were more concerned with evacuating, so I had no intention of fitting to survive a hotdrop, especially from a super. There was a large gang sitting on a hostile Titan in the area and ready to escalate anything. Nothing could have saved that carrier except that a blue would betray me and staying docked. My strategy to avoid getting caught worked so long as a blue did not betray my position with a bookmark, and even with the bookmark, the SB only gained point about 1 second away from my carrier entering warp. Oftentimes betrayal renders losses absolutely unavoidable. If I could have seen the future of betrayal, I would have fit a warp stab for sure, but when betrayal enters the equation, anything can happen and nothing can be secured, especially when cynos enter the equation and you are not just dealing with one or two lone FRIGATES.

The cyno causes SOLO cloaked frigates to "own" sov space for free.
The cyno causes BLOBS.
The cyno causes pve ops to move systems.
The cyno causes sovereignty to mean nothing as capital ships jump deep behind enemy lines in giant blobs and disrupt all operations and infrastructure.
The cyno prevents preparations/defenses by obscuring the composition of the enemy fleet.
The cyno protects the enemy fleet until it is ready to jump in and engage.
The cyno enables the immortal supercaps to escape all but bubbles and HIC points, rendering them almost as risk free as the AFK cloaky and the fleet on the Titan before engagement.

The cyno CAUSES all of this. Local merely informs us of some of this after it has happened; after the cyno, there is only about 2-3s before the local and overview warnings are too late.