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SOMER Blink - Microlotteries that Finish in Minutes! 1 QUADRILLION ISK Won!

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RangerGord
Rothschild's Sewage and Septic Sucking Services
The Possum Lodge
#2101 - 2013-10-29 01:07:03 UTC
Bump... (since I was so graciously succeeded by the lottery odds dude...)

RangerGord wrote:
Silly question, and I can't be the only one...

I've been on Blink for a while, originally put some money (something like 100m or something small), and then liked it and dropped 1b into Blink. Since then I've just been using what I've earned in Blink to keep rolling, occasionally cashing something out if my surplus gets high enough. But today when I clicked for the 1.25Q gift I got an interesting msg:

"Not enough ISK deposited. To open a gift this celebration, you must deposit another 3M."

So it seems we are now required to constantly deposit new ISK if you want to claim any gifts? Did this requirement change since the last one? I even tried winning something and then converting it to Blink credit, no dice :(
Zyzz Shavershian
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#2102 - 2013-10-29 13:48:28 UTC
Seven Koskanaiken wrote:
Inora Aknaria wrote:
Cayell wrote:
Timberlake wrote:
This is the chance rules :

1/(2^n)

N=number of play (only if you put 50% tickets)

So :

1 blink :

1/2 = 0.5
0.5*100 = 50% for this probability
Litteral : There is 50% to happen (loose 1 time)

2 blinks :

1/2*2= 0.25
0.25*100 = 25%
Litteral : There is 25% to happen (loose 2 times consecutive)

3 blinks :

1/2*2*2=0.125
0.125*100= 12.5%
Litteral : There is 12.5% to happen (loose 3 times consecutive)

12 Blinks :

1/2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2=0,000244140625
0,000244140625*100= 0,0244140625%
Litteral : There is 0.024% to happen (loose 12 times consecutive)

So I'm very unlucky ? Or Somer can change the chance ?

I really don't know



What you've written there is a perfect example of Gambler's Fallacy - the idea that the probability of winning on a blink is in any way affected by the results of previous blinks.

If you flip a coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, it doesn't change the chances of the 10th flip. At all. There is still a 50% chance of either result.


You are right that if you flip a fair coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, the 10th flip still has a 50/50 chance of being tails. But personally if I flipped a coin 9 times I would start wondering if it was a fair coin. To figure out that I would have to see what the chance of flipping a fair coin 9 times and coming up with tails every time was. 1/512 = .195%. If I kept flipping it and getting tails eventually I would have flipped the coin 12 times in a row. That has a 1 in 4,096 chance in happening (P=.00024). That means I could be 99.9% certain that the coin I'm flipping isn't a fair coin at all.



The probability of flipping a coin and getting TTTTTTTTT is exactly the same as the probability of getting HTHTTHTTT.


Nice attempt at trolling there...



....now get out before someone actually starts believing this.
Ona Bender
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#2103 - 2013-10-29 14:28:56 UTC
Heh...it's like being back in grade school.

Flipping a coin 9 times has 2^9 (512) possible outcomes. Not one of those is more probable than another.

TTTTTTTTT is just as likely as HTHHTTHHT - it really, really is. But HTHHTTHHT doesn't mean just some random mix - it's one of the 512 distinct possible outcomes.

You could just as easily claim the following nonsense:

  • My result was HTHHTTHHT.
  • There's only a 1/512 chance that that outcome could happen.
  • Therefore, I can be some made up percent sure the coin isn't fair.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#2104 - 2013-10-29 16:47:40 UTC
Somer are likely to be going down soon people. I'd advise to stop cashing in, play all your credit and cash out as soon as possible. There's only a limited amount of time before Somer stop paying out and your balance will be lost. CCP would not be able to reimburse you for a loss due to Somer refusing to pay out.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
TigerXtrm
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#2105 - 2013-10-29 22:12:39 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Somer are likely to be going down soon people. I'd advise to stop cashing in, play all your credit and cash out as soon as possible. There's only a limited amount of time before Somer stop paying out and your balance will be lost. CCP would not be able to reimburse you for a loss due to Somer refusing to pay out.


Shutting down a successful site like SOMER because of a small setback? Highly doubtful. But if they are; please give the site to me. I'll take good care of it, I promise.

My YouTube Channel - EVE Tutorials & other game related things!

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Mars OG
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#2106 - 2013-10-30 01:08:14 UTC
TigerXtrm wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
Somer are likely to be going down soon people. I'd advise to stop cashing in, play all your credit and cash out as soon as possible. There's only a limited amount of time before Somer stop paying out and your balance will be lost. CCP would not be able to reimburse you for a loss due to Somer refusing to pay out.


Shutting down a successful site like SOMER because of a small setback? Highly doubtful. But if they are; please give the site to me. I'll take good care of it, I promise.

A large part of the reason they are successful is because they are making $4-7k a month from affiliate GTC sales. Somer only pays her employees a plex per month so most of that isk will directly benefit her. Once their RMT method is banned, there will likely be a drop in those sales. Furthermore, having had their cash cow taken away by the community, I see no reason why Somer wouldn't become angry and decide **** it, time to really cash out, and just take all the isk and RMT it through a more traditional method. Rather, this being Eve, I would expect it. I'd call losing $4k+ a month of income more than a 'small setback'.
Ona Bender
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#2107 - 2013-10-30 02:26:36 UTC
CCP don't like the kind of "RMT" that takes money out of their pockets, they aren't against people (especially themselves) legally earning money.

  • Pay some random guy REAL MONEY for isk earned in game = BAD (NO money for CCP Cry).
  • Pay CCP REAL MONEY for a PLEX, sell on market for isk = GOOD (YES money for CCP Smile).


CCP allow 3rd parties to sell GTC. While CCP CAN require them to fix prices, they can't prevent them from having their own affiliate programs.

Now, consider:

  • The more GTC the 3rd party sells, the more money in CCP's pockets (money for CCP = GOOD Smile, remember?).
  • Blink helps a legal 3rd party to legally sell MORE GTC (more money for CCP = MORE GOOD Big smile, see above).

My point is, if there's something going on where Blink are going to get shut down, it's not that.
Ona Bender
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#2108 - 2013-10-30 03:18:51 UTC
So in part 1, we learned that there are 512 different possible outcomes for flipping 9 coins (HHHHHHHHH, HHHHHHHHT, HHHHHHHTH, and so on).

Now, for part 2. Flipping a coin 9 times, and not caring about order but only about the number of H and the number of T, there are 10 possible outcomes - and they have different probabilities. The brute force way to figure these out would be to come up with the 512 possible outcomes described above, and then for each one, count the H and T, and put a tick next to the corresponding outcome below. For example, TTTTTTTTT = 0H, 9T; TTTTTTTTH = 1H, 8T; TTTTTTTHT = 1H, 8T, and so on.

Comes out like this:

9H, 0T = 1; 8H, 1T = 9; 7H, 2T = 36; 6H, 3T = 84; 5H, 4T = 126; 4H, 5T = 126; 3H, 6T = 84; 2H, 7T = 36; 1H, 8T = 9; 0H, 9T = 1 (add those up, there are 512)

So, that can be confusing - but remember, nobody plays like that - you play 2 out of 3, you call each flip - not "two heads and a tails".
rljpdx
#2109 - 2013-10-30 04:56:53 UTC  |  Edited by: rljpdx
a successful business model benefiting many manufacturing corporations across New Eden...

2113 posts and counting....

apparently a grade A troller too...

just sayin....

:)

rljpdx
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#2110 - 2013-10-30 07:32:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Lucas Kell
Ona Bender wrote:
CCP don't like the kind of "RMT" that takes money out of their pockets, they aren't against people (especially themselves) legally earning money.

  • Pay some random guy REAL MONEY for isk earned in game = BAD (NO money for CCP Cry).
  • Pay CCP REAL MONEY for a PLEX, sell on market for isk = GOOD (YES money for CCP Smile).


CCP allow 3rd parties to sell GTC. While CCP CAN require them to fix prices, they can't prevent them from having their own affiliate programs.

Now, consider:

  • The more GTC the 3rd party sells, the more money in CCP's pockets (money for CCP = GOOD Smile, remember?).
  • Blink helps a legal 3rd party to legally sell MORE GTC (more money for CCP = MORE GOOD Big smile, see above).

My point is, if there's something going on where Blink are going to get shut down, it's not that.

Right, but the isk incentives don't necessarily mean more sales. They just mean someone who was going to buy a GTC at [insert random site here] now buys through Somer. This means Somer is using it's isk advantage to push sales, and Katarina Reid has demonstrated how effective this can be.

Now once that incentive is gone, since pretty much anyone can be an affiliate, people will be more likely to do friends and corpmates a solid by using their affiliate link to buy a GTC, or support sites they care about. Sure Somer may still get sales, but I doubt very much it will be similar to their current income. And that will make Somer less than pleased with the community.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
CCP Eterne
C C P
C C P Alliance
#2111 - 2013-10-30 13:01:01 UTC
I have removed off-topic, rumor mongering, and other posts from this thread.

EVE Online/DUST 514 Community Representative ※ EVE Illuminati ※ Fiction Adept

@CCP_Eterne ※ @EVE_LiveEvents
Jack Breacher
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#2112 - 2013-10-30 15:04:30 UTC
Can I win something please ?
ISD Ezwal
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#2113 - 2013-10-31 22:29:01 UTC
I have removed some rule breaking posts and those quoting them.
Please refrain from discussing forum moderation. If you are perceiving a problem with ISD behaviour on the forum or are disagreeing with the way (your) posts are being moderated, please feel free to read the CCP policies and follow the procedure found under the header 'Complaints'.


ISD Ezwal Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)
Nanatoa
#2114 - 2013-10-31 23:54:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Nanatoa
Nanatoa wrote:
It's great that SOMER Blink gave away 800B for nothing at EVE Vegas - given that huge number what's the problem with dealing with my 16B exactly? Surely SOMER Blink is stretching their trusty and reliable reputation with their continued silence on this matter?


The good news is that someone from SOMER Blink finally contacted me after I posted that previous message, the bad news is that they refuse to refund my isk.

They say that they "will not refund ISK used in valid play that has already been won or lost". That's right, for SOMER Blink offering an unique prize, requiring people to play Blinks to enter, then withdrawing that prize, is 'valid play'. Well, I call it 'bait-and-switch'. Not an uncommon scam in EVE, but for the first time ever perpetrated by a "trustworthy and honourable" service endorsed by CCP.

SOMER Blink lays the blame squarely at CCP's feet, though they seem to forget this was their contest and they have my money - they also have to opportunity and means to refund my money, but that's "not possible" because they see bait and switch as valid play.

"Stay the course, we have done this many times before." - (CCP) Hilmar, June 2011
Lic Skjem
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#2115 - 2013-11-01 00:53:44 UTC
Be VERY CAREFUL what you say in the Somer Blink channel. They are now banning people who talk about the CCP investigation into RMT. If you allude to the discussion or bring up the thread, you will be banned.
Esppiton
Doomheim
#2116 - 2013-11-01 06:32:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Esppiton
Lucas Kell wrote:
Somer are likely to be going down soon people. I'd advise to stop cashing in, play all your credit and cash out as soon as possible. There's only a limited amount of time before Somer stop paying out and your balance will be lost. CCP would not be able to reimburse you for a loss due to Somer refusing to pay out.

this mean next ->
Quote:
CCP is changing policy, and has asked that we discontinue the bonus credit program after November 7th. So until then, enjoy a super-bonus of 1B Blink Credit for each 60-day GTC you buy!
Thanks to everyone who has helped support our server costs by buying through the affiliate link :)
The bonus will go away after the 7th, so we'll be investigating other options to cover the server expense after the GTC money runs out :)

no more, no less...d'nt scare people. alarmist.
JusFooling Around
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#2117 - 2013-11-01 06:34:27 UTC  |  Edited by: JusFooling Around
Why not put a link to every authorized reseller and every site of every alliance and corp with a link to an authorized reseller?

When Eve got the idea to offer incentives in the way of isk They discussed it with CCP and got the nod to proceed. It is only now when some corps and alliances abused the practice by bringing RL cash into the equation that Eve was forced to do something.

Blink continues to operate, The Authorized reseller you linked continues to operate. Blink's memberships continue to swell. They found enough server to operate on before they were paid affiliate fees authorized by CCP for click-throughs, Theywill find a way to survive in the future. They have already said they will not take donations from players - who knows, a player run run feature with 80k membership (yes, some dormant) might even get a little corner of the CCP server to use or buy it outright.

Somer came up with the idea for Blink to use as a Resume' for jobs and has gotten two much improved over the last positions out if it. Ya never know, she might be tired of dealing with **** heads by now and be ready for a sale.
Katarina Reid
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#2118 - 2013-11-01 07:22:53 UTC
JusFooling Around wrote:
Why not put a link to every authorized reseller and every site of every alliance and corp with a link to an authorized reseller?

When Eve got the idea to offer incentives in the way of isk They discussed it with CCP and got the nod to proceed. It is only now when some corps and alliances abused the practice by bringing RL cash into the equation that Eve was forced to do something.

Blink continues to operate, The Authorized reseller you linked continues to operate. Blink's memberships continue to swell. They found enough server to operate on before they were paid affiliate fees authorized by CCP for click-throughs, Theywill find a way to survive in the future. They have already said they will not take donations from players - who knows, a player run run feature with 80k membership (yes, some dormant) might even get a little corner of the CCP server to use or buy it outright.

Somer came up with the idea for Blink to use as a Resume' for jobs and has gotten two much improved over the last positions out if it. Ya never know, she might be tired of dealing with **** heads by now and be ready for a sale.

Somer made $130k so can keep the servers running just cant get paid $ for isk anymore.
Peenutbutterjellytime
DEFCON.
The Initiative.
#2119 - 2013-11-01 07:52:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Peenutbutterjellytime
are you kidding me? you raise the bonus to 1bil the day after i bought my usual gtcs via somer.such a bad luck......

any chance to get the bonus retroactive?
Frying Doom
#2120 - 2013-11-01 08:29:42 UTC
JusFooling Around wrote:
They have already said they will not take donations from players - who knows, a player run run feature with 80k membership (yes, some dormant) might even get a little corner of the CCP server to use or buy it outright.

Yes that would work really well as they would instantly be in violation of UK law.Lol

Any spelling, grammatical and punctuation errors are because frankly, I don't care!!