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What is driving recent increase in Plex value

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Author
Vis Aldent
Quafe Art
#81 - 2013-10-23 18:08:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Vis Aldent
ngaly wrote:
One reason among others for increasing PLEX prices is tolerated RMT. More people are buying ISK directly from players using the lottery trick instead of only buying PLEX/GTC => PLEX supply in-game decreases => PLEX price in-game increases.


To 618,003,000.00 ISK Buy Orders price x 10 in Jita IV 4 Navy Plant 0 minutes ago.

Any link(s) to CCP's take down on those tricks or ongoing reports directly sent and addressed to them (personally or corporately)?
X ATM092
The Hatchery
RAZOR Alliance
#82 - 2013-10-23 19:25:12 UTC
Vis Aldent wrote:
ngaly wrote:
One reason among others for increasing PLEX prices is tolerated RMT. More people are buying ISK directly from players using the lottery trick instead of only buying PLEX/GTC => PLEX supply in-game decreases => PLEX price in-game increases.


To 618,003,000.00 ISK Buy Orders price x 10 in Jita IV 4 Navy Plant 0 minutes ago.

Any link(s) to CCP's take down on those tricks or ongoing reports directly sent and addressed to them (personally or corporately)?

CCP doesn't recognise giving someone an out of game reward that can be easily turned into in game currency in exchange for an out of game service as RMT, even though it qualifies by any idiots definition. Blink is therefore allowed to RMT with impunity, so long as they only exchange $ for blink credit (and then blink credit for isk).
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#83 - 2013-10-24 00:27:48 UTC
X ATM092 wrote:
Vis Aldent wrote:
ngaly wrote:
One reason among others for increasing PLEX prices is tolerated RMT. More people are buying ISK directly from players using the lottery trick instead of only buying PLEX/GTC => PLEX supply in-game decreases => PLEX price in-game increases.


To 618,003,000.00 ISK Buy Orders price x 10 in Jita IV 4 Navy Plant 0 minutes ago.

Any link(s) to CCP's take down on those tricks or ongoing reports directly sent and addressed to them (personally or corporately)?

CCP doesn't recognise giving someone an out of game reward that can be easily turned into in game currency in exchange for an out of game service as RMT, even though it qualifies by any idiots definition. Blink is therefore allowed to RMT with impunity, so long as they only exchange $ for blink credit (and then blink credit for isk).

To the extent people buy less Plex because they get they get 100million more bang for their buck buying GTCs from SOMER, ccp there would be less PLEX coming to market.

The offset to that is that all of that gambling motivates more $ being used to buy plex.....

... we can all take wild ass guesses of our own.. My wild ass guess , from personal knowledge of peoples behavior in the world beyond EVE,

I'd certainly guess that there are a lot more people using $ to buy plex because of the intoxication of wanting to gamble more and having lost their isk.. than there are people who are tight with their $ and look for the most efficient way to use real $ to buy pixels.

That would mean more plex coming onto the market.. which would certainly be a force towards lowering the price of plex.... a force that direction.. they're helping plex/isk price from rising even more.

... as for the RMT issue... yeah SOMER Blink is finding a way to use ISK as a motivation to get people to buy gametime from them instead of from others. They get more $ in commisions from the use of isk . By the same token, given my wild ass guess above (which i'm almos certain is correct).. .. they help CCP sell GTCs to a crowd of people beyond those that would have bought them without the gambling .

Clearly CCP wants to sell more net GTCS ... and clearly CCP already anticpated paying $ commisions to GTC sellers.

The people running SOMER Blink are putting in real Out of game human hours into the operation of the marketing /gaming site.. doing programing etc. In that sense they are getting paid for their time doing Meta work that helps the game with $ ...

yes I understand how the use of isk to get more "work" could be called a ISK to $ shift in the end. BUT, the work involved and the fact that ONLY somer employees are profitting that way really tempers the idea that this is a way that people can turn isk into $ without work that is worth real world $

tempers.. that means it is not as starkly clear..... softens the effect. or whatever

SOMER has a clear way of making the ISK that they use as bonuses with GTC purchases ... they're not buying it with $ from third parties. Basically.. those that lose in auctions are paying people who buy GTCs at the auctions extra isk along with their purchase.

It is a clever marketing scheme but.. not anyway to make real $ without real life work.

.

Vis Aldent
Quafe Art
#84 - 2013-10-24 14:36:41 UTC
1 Buy Order at 625,100,842.32 Jita IV 4 Navy Plant makes me want to buy it.
I'd loose on important collateral if I didn't although the relative value of the collateral is much lower.
The relative amount by which the value is lower can be or could be derived from this thread:
Calculations of Costs Compared to Ingame Income to Derive the actual amount of real Ingame Profit.

Regardless, the ISK can also be used for legally purchasing Pilot on the EVE forums Character Bazaar.


However, I understand that most just like to try the game and therefore requires funding to pay for it.
Whether it is for pure enjoyment, the curiosity of satisfying scientific facts or comparison.

It is related to investments put in the game.
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#85 - 2013-10-27 21:32:53 UTC
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00A2CI8LE/ref=dsvrt_review_asin_detail

This for real? 3 PLEX for 5 dollah??? If it is I can imagine this having a rather profound effect on PLEX pricing....
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#86 - 2013-10-28 04:27:02 UTC
Dirk Decibel wrote:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00A2CI8LE/ref=dsvrt_review_asin_detail

This for real? 3 PLEX for 5 dollah??? If it is I can imagine this having a rather profound effect on PLEX pricing....


You didn't read it right.. there are different tabs to press for different packages..

for 5$ you get 30 days instead of 14 days free trial and you get the collector shuttle.. basicaly it's 5$ for 1/2 a plex and for new accounts only.


The other packages weren't that speciall came to $15 ish per plex

.

Lipbite
Express Hauler
#87 - 2013-10-28 05:25:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Lipbite
I see PLEX market is being brutally manipulated: during last 3 days someone is fulfilling hundreds of buying orders in Jita including those 30-50mil below normal cost (630mil => 580mil).

Either it's Russian oligarch (again) - or CCP themselves use artificially generated PLEXes to suppress prices growth.

Want cheaper plex? Just place 580-585mil buy order in Jita next Friday - even if normal price will be 650mil.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#88 - 2013-10-28 06:47:37 UTC
Dirk Decibel wrote:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00A2CI8LE/ref=dsvrt_review_asin_detail

This for real? 3 PLEX for 5 dollah??? If it is I can imagine this having a rather profound effect on PLEX pricing....

CCP Guard wrote:
Hey everyone.

It appears that Amazon, who operate as a third party re-seller for some of our products, put the wrong price on a package of PLEX and then quickly pulled the offer once the error was discovered.

A few thousand extra PLEX are in circulation as a result which is not enough to cause any significant or lasting impact on the in-game markets.

Source: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3794242#post3794242

Claire Voyant
#89 - 2013-10-28 11:38:31 UTC
It get's better: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3795441#post3795441
CCP Falcon wrote:
Jalebi wrote:
CCP has started banning people who bought PLEX from the erroneous Amazon sale. Brace for impact!


For reference, if anyone finds their accounts disabled due to this, then please file a support ticket to have the issue cleared up.

We are not banning people's accounts due to this, and any action taken against an account because of this issue has been triggered automatically due to our billing system being notified of a charge-back by the third party retailer.

If you find your EVE account locked down due to this, please file a support ticket under the billing category and the GM Team will be happy to help.

Smile

So let's say Amazon is out something like $50,000, which is enough to get someone fired. Amazon has terms in their standard "agreement" that says that they can reverse sales if there was an incorrect price listed. There is also a mechanism in place for resellers to notify CCP if PLEX were purchased fraudulently so CCP can freeze the account. Amazon clearly wants its money back and CCP would probably like to avoid the bad publicity involved in seizing in-game assets or banning accounts for something that was clearly the fault of its reseller.

Let's just say that this is probably going to be worked out between Amazon and CCP at some high level. My guess is that CCP will probably end up eating most of it. So maybe Dr. E is going to have to dip into his stash again? Call it an accidental intervention? No harm done really.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#90 - 2013-10-28 16:47:38 UTC
Claire Voyant wrote:


Let's just say that this is probably going to be worked out between Amazon and CCP at some high level. My guess is that CCP will probably end up eating most of it. So maybe Dr. E is going to have to dip into his stash again? Call it an accidental intervention? No harm done really.


You think CCP will take a loss because someone at Amazon messed up?
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#91 - 2013-10-28 16:55:02 UTC
Claire Voyant wrote:
It get's better: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3795441#post3795441
CCP Falcon wrote:
Jalebi wrote:
CCP has started banning people who bought PLEX from the erroneous Amazon sale. Brace for impact!


For reference, if anyone finds their accounts disabled due to this, then please file a support ticket to have the issue cleared up.

We are not banning people's accounts due to this, and any action taken against an account because of this issue has been triggered automatically due to our billing system being notified of a charge-back by the third party retailer.

If you find your EVE account locked down due to this, please file a support ticket under the billing category and the GM Team will be happy to help.

Smile

So let's say Amazon is out something like $50,000, which is enough to get someone fired. Amazon has terms in their standard "agreement" that says that they can reverse sales if there was an incorrect price listed. There is also a mechanism in place for resellers to notify CCP if PLEX were purchased fraudulently so CCP can freeze the account. Amazon clearly wants its money back and CCP would probably like to avoid the bad publicity involved in seizing in-game assets or banning accounts for something that was clearly the fault of its reseller.

Let's just say that this is probably going to be worked out between Amazon and CCP at some high level. My guess is that CCP will probably end up eating most of it. So maybe Dr. E is going to have to dip into his stash again? Call it an accidental intervention? No harm done really.


Exactly my thoughts but I would have taken 3 times the words to say it by elaborating on how I came to the conclusions ... lol

(btw I think you meant ~maybe Dr. E is NOT going to have to dip into his stash again ~ )

as for the "no harm" .. .. . if you're playing this sandbox by measuring your abosolute position relative to others rather than how well you personally cope with what is presented to you.. in that small minded way of seeing thigns a person would be hurt.

of course.. if you value your play compared to others.. there will always be some "injustice" to be mad at.. people will always be able to outgrind you with more hours.. be ahead for more years in the game.. or ahead because they don't have a wife to bother them etc...

... all sorts of meta things effect the game.. in this case a retailer's mistake tossed out a couple thousand months of game time at 1/10th their retail price to a focused hundreds of players. The vast majority of those months sold will not canibalize cash sales ...and CCP is only those that would have otherwise been paid full price for by the particular buyers invovled (given those buyers habits, personal finances an attitudes on what is a prudent abount to spend on a video game).

The magnitude might be enough to help polish off the intervention that will be needed until the patch comes out.... which is coming soon.. with the winter holidays not far behind .. both of which seem to bring more player sold plex to the ingame markets.

.

Claire Voyant
#92 - 2013-10-28 16:59:32 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Claire Voyant wrote:
Let's just say that this is probably going to be worked out between Amazon and CCP at some high level. My guess is that CCP will probably end up eating most of it. So maybe Dr. E is going to have to dip into his stash again? Call it an accidental intervention? No harm done really.


You think CCP will take a loss because someone at Amazon messed up?

Whether they call it a loss or forgone income or a promotion, CCP will more likely get close to $5 per sale instead of the $45 they expected. We already have an acknowledgement from CCP that Amazon was issuing chargebacks. Doesn't seem like Amazon wants to write it off.
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#93 - 2013-10-28 17:47:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Diomedes Calypso
Claire Voyant wrote:
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Claire Voyant wrote:
Let's just say that this is probably going to be worked out between Amazon and CCP at some high level. My guess is that CCP will probably end up eating most of it. So maybe Dr. E is going to have to dip into his stash again? Call it an accidental intervention? No harm done really.


You think CCP will take a loss because someone at Amazon messed up?

Whether they call it a loss or forgone income or a promotion, CCP will more likely get close to $5 per sale instead of the $45 they expected. We already have an acknowledgement from CCP that Amazon was issuing chargebacks. Doesn't seem like Amazon wants to write it off.



It is only forgone income if those additional plex get used by people who would have otherwise paid $ .


This has two sides to it.. 1) Forgone game time activated, and 2)forgone Plex sales at full price -

1) People like me who currently use 8 plex a month to have more characters but never would have paid more than 15$ a month don't cost CCP ANY forgone income for 7 of the 8 plex I use.

It is the motivations of the end plex activator that determine whether or not any income was truly forgone via activation.

--- there are nuances here about changed motivations based on absolute isk/plex ratio determined by changed supply and demand but the volume of the sales are not enough to shift that equation drastically if you're looking at a 200 day moving averate

2) Sales, not forgone in number of units but forgone at a price point -
--- clearly CCP revenue is less selling 1000 plex for $15,000 vs selling 1000 plex for $1500 but even here the motivations of the buyers are very important. To the extent that buyers who were ready to buy 3 plex at $45 instead bought 3 plex for $5 there would be a real loss. However, I seriously doubt that most of those buyers didn't say to themselves "hell, at this price, I'll buy far more than I would have ever paid $15 a piece for" . That "hell more" number really didn't cost CCP anything to the extent they are used by players like me who are "as long as i'm only paying with game assets I made for fun, I'll use another 7"

I don't think any rational person could argue that some portion of say 3000 units sold would never have been purchased if not for the price ... we can argue percentages with me saying only 1/10 were forgone full rpice sales and someone else saying 7/10 were forgone full price sales ... but whatever number you use it decreases the delta between $15 and $1.66 by some amount.

Yes there is some forgone income.. but I'd guess that it is a very small fraction of the few thousand plex "given away" at 1.66 cents a piece. I'd guess that it is only about 10% of the volume.. and that's an amount % that Amazon might eat ..


--- another analogies.. even though we'e gone over this time and time again and people really want to cling to the notion that if some plex are valued at $15 by some buyers.. all plex in the game have a $15 value and also have a reciprical cost to CCP of $15 when activiated


Music industry estimates of IP $ Stolen by illegal music downloads : They are certainly entitled to quot a retail price of all the music illegally downloaded.. but they're bald face irrational liars (or dillusionional, if they aren't dishonest) to actually believe that when someone downloades 200 songs illegally, those same people would have actually bought all 200 at full price ..... any rational personal knows that those grabbing things in bulk like that would probably not even bough 20 of those 200 songs they "took"/"stole" etc. Music industry "losses" are not the retail value of the 200 songs but the retail value of which of those recordings would have other wise been paid for

"retail value" does not equate to "value of loss"

**** and there would be further argument that if giving away products to people who would not have bought them actually increases their popularity and motivates other people(who do not steal/illegally download) to buy with real $ what they would have thought about without the "robbers" introducing them to it ... but that's a marketing element that only marketing people can make educated guesses at by their expertise in modelling consumer behavior.

.

Vis Aldent
Quafe Art
#94 - 2013-10-30 15:12:31 UTC
On the other hand , I rebound the thread after 2 days of silence at
603m in Jita. (all in one line with a link in it)
fuer0n
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#95 - 2013-10-31 17:11:11 UTC  |  Edited by: fuer0n
Claire Voyant wrote:
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I don't see CCP reselling PLEXes which have already been paid for once with real cash.

CCP is sitting on a pile of confiscated PLEX. They are not obligated to do anything with them. They could sell them for isk, they could trash them, or they could just let them sit there.

On the other hand, CCP is in the business of selling new PLEX for cash. They can pretty much set whatever price they want and the only guys that ever complain are the traders sitting on piles of their own PLEX that get hurt when CCP "intervenes." (Wise up pals. The price goes up, CCP intervenes. Get over it.)

So one intervention they sell PLEX for isk, in the other they sell PLEX for cash. What's the big deal? You yourself called it an intervention. The only thing I'm really proposing with my cockimamie idea is the deep discounts on PLEX that were offered for such a short time and through an unusual and unadvertised channel were intended as an intervention by CCP. And if it is seen by CCP as successful in that regard, you may see more of them in the future in one form or another.

Whether one quarter of those PLEX that were sold last week through Amazon were "previously owned" I don't think we will ever know, and perhaps only Dr. E and some accountants at CCP really care. Much ado about nothing really. My only take away is the idea that CCP has found another way to intervene in the PLEX market. I have always poopooed the idea that routine PLEX sales are intended as interventions. Marketing departments conduct frequent sales in part to determine price points and to make sure they are pricing their products appropriately. I see what happened last week as anything but routine. Whether it was initiated by Amazon or CCP or CCP took Amazon's idea and ran with it I don't know, but I have my suspicions.



why you calling dr e? call him buy his frist eve name ffs.


they are injecting them plex into the market for the quiet time. had fun :)
fuer0n
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#96 - 2013-10-31 17:31:30 UTC
Claire Voyant wrote:
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Claire Voyant wrote:
Let's just say that this is probably going to be worked out between Amazon and CCP at some high level. My guess is that CCP will probably end up eating most of it. So maybe Dr. E is going to have to dip into his stash again? Call it an accidental intervention? No harm done really.


You think CCP will take a loss because someone at Amazon messed up?

Whether they call it a loss or forgone income or a promotion, CCP will more likely get close to $5 per sale instead of the $45 they expected. We already have an acknowledgement from CCP that Amazon was issuing chargebacks. Doesn't seem like Amazon wants to write it off.


amazon sold on at cost imo. big screw up but they didnt lose any money.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#97 - 2013-10-31 17:42:13 UTC
Jita PLEX 599/590.

Big smile
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#98 - 2013-10-31 17:48:32 UTC
Yeah that would be the halloween plex sale.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#99 - 2013-11-01 00:09:29 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Yeah that would be the halloween plex sale.

You call that a ******* sale? Here in Euro country it's 16 euro a plex, if you buy a sixpack. That's close to like $20 or something a PLEX?

Theo Sotken
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#100 - 2013-11-01 12:15:49 UTC
Somers new offer of 1Billion isk bonus. Will it increase or decrease the price of plexes?

More isk in the system = a rise in the price of plexes.
More Gtc's = more plexes being created (lower price).