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What is driving recent increase in Plex value

First post
Author
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#41 - 2013-09-28 17:34:52 UTC
Shotgun!

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Zaxix
State War Academy
Caldari State
#42 - 2013-09-29 03:47:37 UTC
And just like that... back down to 550million. Take note, this is the CCP target price. I think they've actually balanced out rewards per unit of time investment per month to equal a PLEX. No way to prove it, but 550 has been the magic number for more than a year and a half now.

Bokononist

 

Adunh Slavy
#43 - 2013-09-29 04:27:14 UTC
Zaxix wrote:
Take note, this is the CCP target price.



I doubt CCP has a target price. They might have a target rate of change, but I doubt it is any thing set in stone.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#44 - 2013-09-29 04:39:27 UTC
Look at the daily volume too.

I believe the sharp bump in vovlume has to do with the discount bulk plex buy promotions and , the desire to cash em in what they regard as higher.

Regardless of your own conclusion, in forming your conclusion I'd suggest you do this,

Go to The forge
Go to the historic market data, ..(set at the maximum 1 year)

go to the colum with daily volume and sort it from high to low....

Look at the dates in the left column where the highest volume days were... I don't have any huge conclusions other than you can see them clumping likely on weekends but also focused on a a few points in the year where the volume in the weekends close to them get the highest volume


When you have volume sorted high to low, move your eyes over tot the averaged price column....

go down the list and you can see how the lower the volume, the higher the average price tended to be (tended.. corelations are not absolute) If you were able to use only the same days of each week I believe the connection would leap out more because the sort list is going to have more of it's weekends toward the top of the list, but the price at a given time of year doesn't spike on the weekends in any pronounced way.


Given the very low volume in October a year ago.. the boost in volume sure does look like it is promotion driven!

ALSO..

I 'm not sure I would have known it could be shown so clearly..

but the table really makes the case that demand is less elastic than supply.....
... you would think volume would go up (like it did the last few days.. helped majorly by the lower $ price in plex if bought in build) as people got more isk for their $

(actually I have never thought that.. I've thought that people spend enough to reach their ship purchase goal given a constant $-plex price... I'm not surprised that a lower $-plex price would increast volume...I think people using $ to buy plex are primarily interested in how much fun they're having (or how vested) and less sensitive to any value concern when $-plex prices aren't heavily promoted.)


Come up with your own conclusions.. but do look at the data sorted as I suggest to maybe come up with different thoughts after contemplating it.

.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#45 - 2013-10-01 02:50:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Akita T
Fango Mango wrote:
2) No CCP special offers (fanfest/tournament/video cards) for PLEX that increase demand.

I'm pretty sure I saw some "buy admittance to event X with either PLEX or cash" a while ago.
Something like EVE Vegas Poker if memory serves right?

EDIT: Ayup.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=185429
Quote:
6/27/13
The Plex Link is Live!
Read more in the Dev Blog here: http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/eve-vegas-2013/

15x PLEX for entry, 200+ tickets sold, probably only a small fraction with PLEX though, not enough to really matter except for speculation purposes, I guess.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#46 - 2013-10-02 12:31:05 UTC
Zaxix wrote:
And just like that... back down to 550million. Take note, this is the CCP target price. I think they've actually balanced out rewards per unit of time investment per month to equal a PLEX. No way to prove it, but 550 has been the magic number for more than a year and a half now.


Allow me to submit my counterargument: Plex are already back to 575, the depressive effects of a sale never last more than a week or two, and multiple sales in rapid succession are successively less effective at lowering the price.

In short: You're wrong.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#47 - 2013-10-02 21:13:41 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Zaxix wrote:
And just like that... back down to 550million. Take note, this is the CCP target price. I think they've actually balanced out rewards per unit of time investment per month to equal a PLEX. No way to prove it, but 550 has been the magic number for more than a year and a half now.


Allow me to submit my counterargument: Plex are already back to 575, the depressive effects of a sale never last more than a week or two, and multiple sales in rapid succession are successively less effective at lowering the price.

In short: You're wrong.



Moslty my take Mynna.

But, discussion is always important.
-
(not addressed at anyone specific)

From my squint at the volume numbers CCP I'd GUESS that could have kept the price relatively stable last year introducing about 300 plex a month for 1/2 September October November and 1/2 December and subtracting maybe 200 a day for for the following 5 months.

It is a guess, but I think I'm within an order of magnitude (i.e, the amount isn't 4 times my guess or 1/4 of my guess.

They could come out net even in terms of "game time given away" and the case could be made that they are not tinkering with the long term player set value but only tinkering with META non game effects of seasonality on human player abilty to participate.

400 plex a day is roughly 12,0000 game time subscriptions a month.

Given a stated subscripton base of 500k monthly... that amount is very small.... only 2.4 % of active subscriptions.

If that time added to market were causing them to forgo income, that number would be very large, however a stable price would tend to maintain the current habits of players in terms of subscriptions.


I think players really under estimate the value to CCP of every player in the game...... which would be a long post to explain ...
.... basically, word of mouth advertising and retention of $ paying players means that keeping people who play-to-play helps retain those players who buy other peoples game time and sell it to them for isk....very often paying $ for 3rd and 4rth and 5th accounts of the play to player, who would never dream of paying real $ to have so many accounts.

If you log on and no one is on in your corp, you're far more likely to log off. Many corps have some people who play to pay and others who Pay, not to Play the isk farming part of the game.

Shake out some play to players with price spikes in PLEX and they're far more likely to "take a month off" in terms of principle of the matter of not wanting to get over charged.. especially those months they have less time to play.

I'll stop with the explanation but more stable prices make for a incrementally more stable player base (even 1/20 would be significant)

.

Claire Voyant
#48 - 2013-10-02 23:10:37 UTC
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I'd call the Amazon PLEX sale a form of intervention nevertheless :P

I'm not a big fan of conspiracy theories but sometimes they are fun so let's run with this one.

Amazon is known for hardline bargining with suppliers. They collect preorders for books and then go to publishers and say "we have presold X copies of this book, give us a Y% discount or you will lose those sales."

This makes me think that a 25% discount through Amazon only was not CCP's idea. It probably involved some discounting on CCP's part, but they may have had their arm twisted.

If they asked him, Dr. E was probably OK with this suppy-side intervention. While Economists are known to favor the free market, they usually look the other way when outside interventions help "prove" them right in the end.

Now put on your tin foil hats because this is where the conspiracy theory comes in. While PLEX obviously cost CCP nothing to produce, they represent lost subscription revenue in the future. CCP doesn't want to get into the habit of devaluing their only revenue stream by a factor of 25%.

But what if they justify it as an intervention? PLEX prices were high, well over 600M isk, and supply was obviously low (how else to account for the high prices) so the criteria for an intervention were there.

During the first (publicly admitted, for you conspiracy fans out there) intervention Dr. E unloaded a number of confiscated PLEX on the market. (I think he gave the number in the fanfest video, but I can't be bothered to listen to it again right now.) This drove the pice down which helped out all us parasite station traders who sucked them up like hors d'oeuvres, burped politely and then said what's for dinner. Meanwhile his PLEX dumping was competing against CCP's actual paying customers and probably hurting CCP's bottom line in the process.

What if this time, someone said "Let's do it differently." Instead of selling those confiscated PLEX for worthless isk, let's sell them for real money. Run a limited promotion through Amazon where they get one free confiscated PLEX for every three PLEX they buy. Of course the actual process is just an accounting adjustment, but you get the idea.

The end result is prices fall by about 10% so everyone is happy. People buying through Amazon end up getting about 15% more isk for their cash and PLEX consumers pay less for their fix. The only one who loses is the good doctor because he is the one who is going to have to explain this to the angry mobs at fanfest, but on the upside it means he gets to keep his job for another six months. It could be worse,
Ity Moennan
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#49 - 2013-10-03 00:40:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Ity Moennan
Dirk Decibel wrote:
Amazon PLEX sale: 3 and 6 packs 25% off on Amazon.com http://www.amazon.com/PLEX-EVE-Online-Game-Connect/dp/B00A2CI9L8/ref=pd_sim_vg_1


Aren't those sold from CCP Games themselves as suggest the Amazon user name and therefore legal?
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=bl_sr_videogames?_encoding=UTF8&field-brandtextbin=CCP%20Games&node=468642

The offers are now 6 for $99.99 or 3 for $49.99
This price seem to have gone up from the 25% off offer at $74 something for 6 which was the best deal offer I had.
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#50 - 2013-10-03 00:56:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Diomedes Calypso
Claire Voyant wrote:

While PLEX obviously cost CCP nothing to produce, they represent lost subscription revenue in the future.



This is (EDIT ) -- only PARTLY correct.

That is only true if the USERS of the game time would have otherwise paid cash for them.

Only forgone subscription receipts have and offsetting cost to them.... all plex used electively for accounts that never would have been paid for cost CCP a dollar or two a month of bandwidth and close to zero if a 3 or 5th or 8th alt account doesn't make the human player use more bandwith in sum.



I used 7 plex this month.. I no way, no how, not even a tiny weeny chance would have used $ for at least 5 of the 7 accounts and perhaps less.

Yes, someone Paid $ for each and everyone of the plex I used. Yes CCP made $ for each and everyone of them.

But your statement infers that every plex in game is used by people who would have otherwise paid cash.----

--- if CCP gave me 10 more plex right now, if I openned 10 new accounts with them, the transaction would have cost them nearly ZERO.. (a bit of customer service time.. I guess a weensy bit of extra bites of storage somewhere or processing time for chron jobs.. but not even extra bandwith because having 16 accounts instead of 6 would not increase my online time at all, nor does the 7th where I'm using a plex for dual training on this character that really doesn't do much if anything other than, I had a wild hair up my....


SOME people might have chosen to use a plex instead of paying, like perhaps I am doing on my first or second account, but a great many of the plex used are by people who would not pay $.

We really can't guess how many that is with any accuracy, but, If you've been in a big corp you certainly have met many people with many accounts that they keep funded with the isk/plex transaction.

cetainly some other players might have paid $ if they couldn't use plex... some. No matter what estimate you put on both.. there are at least thousands of the 500k accounts on each side.




CCP gets paid for every plex in existence.. but every plex used is not a subsciber fee forgone.---

only plex used by a human player who would have otherwise actually paid $ would cost them anything of notice.

.

Claire Voyant
#51 - 2013-10-03 02:40:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Claire Voyant
Ity Moennan wrote:
Dirk Decibel wrote:
Amazon PLEX sale: 3 and 6 packs 25% off on Amazon.com http://www.amazon.com/PLEX-EVE-Online-Game-Connect/dp/B00A2CI9L8/ref=pd_sim_vg_1


Aren't those sold from CCP Games themselves as suggest the Amazon user name and therefore legal?
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=bl_sr_videogames?_encoding=UTF8&field-brandtextbin=CCP%20Games&node=468642

The offers are now 6 for $99.99 or 3 for $49.99
This price seem to have gone up from the 25% off offer at $74 something for 6 which was the best deal offer I had.

The "brand" is CCP. It says elsewhere "Sold by Amazon Digital Services, Inc." and apparently only people in the US could buy them (or anyhow one Canadian complained about not being able to buy them.) And the sale lasted only a day or two.

It was perfectly legit. People who contacted CCP said it was for real, but the CCP account services continued to sell 6 at the "sale price" of $99.99, a discount of $5 off the full price for individual PLEX.

EDIT: Not that I buy PLEX from CCP, but does it bug anyone else that their "best deal" of six PLEX for $99.99 is a penny more than buying two sets of three for $49.99 each?
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#52 - 2013-10-03 03:18:41 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Or you could just admit your idea is sort of dumb and bad and that even really big null wars are farts in a windstorm when it comes to effect on the market as a whole. The entire expenditure on everything - not just mineral based objects, everything - by all sides in the Fountain war was perhaps a couple trillion isk. The mineral market alone moves (if I counted right) ~380 billion isk worth of minerals per day, in Jita alone. Tritanium alone is nearly a 100b isk/day market.


How much of that trit is simply changing hands as people flip their stocks for a half-percent gain each time the price varies from 4.5 to 4.7?
Claire Voyant
#53 - 2013-10-03 03:24:04 UTC
Diomedes Calypso wrote:
Claire Voyant wrote:
While PLEX obviously cost CCP nothing to produce, they represent lost subscription revenue in the future.

But your statement infers that every plex in game is used by people who would have otherwise paid cash.----

I think you misunderstood me. I meant to include PLEX used to pay for game time in the subscription revenue.

I use PLEX for game time for my three accounts. That's $600 a year in real revenue. If they lowered the price by 25% that would be $450 a year and I probably wouldn't get a fourth account because I pay isk for my PLEX and I'm simply not that price sensitive.

Since most PLEX are traded in the Eve market there is really no such thing as a "free" PLEX. They go on the market and they are bought and sold like every other PLEX. If CCP gave you a free subscription you might add another account, but if they gave you 12 PLEX you would be more likely to sell them or use them for an existing account.

Suppose CCP offered 25% off a one year subscription price for a limited time. A lot of people would extend their subscriptions or open new accounts and you would expect a measurable increase in the number of accounts, even though many of them would have subscribed anyways. Maybe the additional accounts would make up for the loss of revenue on the other accounts, or maybe it wouldn't, but it is clearly price sensitive. Maybe there would be a price point where CCP could definitely say the offer boosted their revenue over the long-term.

On the other hand, this PLEX offer obviously boosted revenue for the quarter ending September 30, but it is highly doubtful that ot will be a net positive for CCP over the next year. There had to be another reason for the promotion. It may be that they are just trying to raise the visibility of Eve on Amazon. Or they have another ulterior motive.
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#54 - 2013-10-03 14:14:22 UTC
Claire Voyant wrote:
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I'd call the Amazon PLEX sale a form of intervention nevertheless :P



During the first (publicly admitted, for you conspiracy fans out there) intervention Dr. E unloaded a number of confiscated PLEX on the market. (I think he gave the number in the fanfest video, but I can't be bothered to listen to it again right now.) This drove the pice down which helped out all us parasite station traders who sucked them up like hors d'oeuvres, burped politely and then said what's for dinner. Meanwhile his PLEX dumping was competing against CCP's actual paying customers and probably hurting CCP's bottom line in the process.

What if this time, someone said "Let's do it differently." Instead of selling those confiscated PLEX for worthless isk, let's sell them for real money. Run a limited promotion through Amazon where they get one free confiscated PLEX for every three PLEX they buy. Of course the actual process is just an accounting adjustment, but you get the idea.
,

I think the number of confiscated PLEX sold was 2k, in fact, I'm pretty sure it was 2k. Dr. Egg was quick to add that they hadn't even began to touch their confiscated PLEX pile with that number. Prolly trying to put off insanely rich multi trillionaires from thinking of manipulating CCP into intervening and riding the waves for profit.


But I don't see CCP reselling PLEXes which have already been paid for once with real cash.
Tigerras
Smash Incorporated
#55 - 2013-10-03 14:21:32 UTC
Dirk Decibel wrote:

I think the number of confiscated PLEX sold was 2k, in fact, I'm pretty sure it was 2k. Dr. Egg was quick to add that they hadn't even began to touch their confiscated PLEX pile with that number. Prolly trying to put off insanely rich multi trillionaires from thinking of manipulating CCP into intervening and riding the waves for profit.


But I don't see CCP reselling PLEXes which have already been paid for once with real cash.


Yeah, if I were CCP, I wouldn't either.
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#56 - 2013-10-03 14:27:07 UTC
Tigerras wrote:
Dirk Decibel wrote:

I think the number of confiscated PLEX sold was 2k, in fact, I'm pretty sure it was 2k. Dr. Egg was quick to add that they hadn't even began to touch their confiscated PLEX pile with that number. Prolly trying to put off insanely rich multi trillionaires from thinking of manipulating CCP into intervening and riding the waves for profit.


But I don't see CCP reselling PLEXes which have already been paid for once with real cash.


Yeah, if I were CCP, I wouldn't either.

If I were CCP I would have sold out, cashed out and left EVE a burning pile of rubble in nothing the great game that it is today, all for my personal benefits.

Luckily for all of you, I'm not CCP...
Claire Voyant
#57 - 2013-10-03 19:52:22 UTC
Dirk Decibel wrote:
If I were CCP I would have sold out, cashed out and left EVE a burning pile of rubble in nothing the great game that it is today, all for my personal benefits.

Little known fact, the CCP retirement fund is vested with isk. If Eve goes under, so do their pensions.
Claire Voyant
#58 - 2013-10-03 23:04:42 UTC
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I don't see CCP reselling PLEXes which have already been paid for once with real cash.

CCP is sitting on a pile of confiscated PLEX. They are not obligated to do anything with them. They could sell them for isk, they could trash them, or they could just let them sit there.

On the other hand, CCP is in the business of selling new PLEX for cash. They can pretty much set whatever price they want and the only guys that ever complain are the traders sitting on piles of their own PLEX that get hurt when CCP "intervenes." (Wise up pals. The price goes up, CCP intervenes. Get over it.)

So one intervention they sell PLEX for isk, in the other they sell PLEX for cash. What's the big deal? You yourself called it an intervention. The only thing I'm really proposing with my cockimamie idea is the deep discounts on PLEX that were offered for such a short time and through an unusual and unadvertised channel were intended as an intervention by CCP. And if it is seen by CCP as successful in that regard, you may see more of them in the future in one form or another.

Whether one quarter of those PLEX that were sold last week through Amazon were "previously owned" I don't think we will ever know, and perhaps only Dr. E and some accountants at CCP really care. Much ado about nothing really. My only take away is the idea that CCP has found another way to intervene in the PLEX market. I have always poopooed the idea that routine PLEX sales are intended as interventions. Marketing departments conduct frequent sales in part to determine price points and to make sure they are pricing their products appropriately. I see what happened last week as anything but routine. Whether it was initiated by Amazon or CCP or CCP took Amazon's idea and ran with it I don't know, but I have my suspicions.
X ATM092
The Hatchery
SL0W CHILDREN AT PLAY
#59 - 2013-10-04 05:55:31 UTC
Claire Voyant wrote:
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I don't see CCP reselling PLEXes which have already been paid for once with real cash.

CCP is sitting on a pile of confiscated PLEX. They are not obligated to do anything with them. They could sell them for isk, they could trash them, or they could just let them sit there.

On the other hand, CCP is in the business of selling new PLEX for cash. They can pretty much set whatever price they want and the only guys that ever complain are the traders sitting on piles of their own PLEX that get hurt when CCP "intervenes." (Wise up pals. The price goes up, CCP intervenes. Get over it.)

So one intervention they sell PLEX for isk, in the other they sell PLEX for cash. What's the big deal? You yourself called it an intervention. The only thing I'm really proposing with my cockimamie idea is the deep discounts on PLEX that were offered for such a short time and through an unusual and unadvertised channel were intended as an intervention by CCP. And if it is seen by CCP as successful in that regard, you may see more of them in the future in one form or another.

Whether one quarter of those PLEX that were sold last week through Amazon were "previously owned" I don't think we will ever know, and perhaps only Dr. E and some accountants at CCP really care. Much ado about nothing really. My only take away is the idea that CCP has found another way to intervene in the PLEX market. I have always poopooed the idea that routine PLEX sales are intended as interventions. Marketing departments conduct frequent sales in part to determine price points and to make sure they are pricing their products appropriately. I see what happened last week as anything but routine. Whether it was initiated by Amazon or CCP or CCP took Amazon's idea and ran with it I don't know, but I have my suspicions.

The idea that CCP is sitting on a pile of confiscated PLEX doesn't make any kind of sense once you actually think about it.
Firstly, who are these people getting banned? It's really hard to get banned from eve, even for botting and so forth. They give you a bunch of warnings etc first because they don't want to lose your custom. So we're supposed to think that there are large numbers of people getting permanently banned on accounts with stacks of PLEX on them?
Secondly, why are they holding stacks of PLEX. If they're RMT buyers they'll have isk, although not on the accounts CCP will find easily, and isk is not the same thing as PLEX. They may subscribe using PLEX but they have no reason to have a stack of it. If they're botters then they'll probably have use PLEX to subscribe but beyond that, just isk and assets. It just doesn't make any sense that CCP have somehow accumulated a massive stack of PLEX from their pretty non existent banning policy.

It's much more likely what CCP meant was they bought PLEX with confiscated isk to sell at a later date.

However even it doesn't really make any difference because nobody gives a **** when CCP run a PLEX sale and there is literally no difference between CCP running a PLEX sale and CCP creating PLEX out of thin air and giving them to one of their characters in game to right click sell. None, zilch, zero.

All PLEX are created out of nothing by CCP, the only thing currently tying them down is the ratio of $ CCP get to PLEX CCP create. That is the one thing that ties the virtual asset of PLEX to a known value and yet by running sales CCP can freely manipulate and change that. Consider the following three scenarios.

a) PLEX cost $20. Jimmy buys 3 PLEX for $60.
b) CCP run a sale. PLEX cost $15. Jimmy buys 4 PLEX for $60.
c) CCP create extra PLEX. PLEX cost $20. Jimmy buys 3 PLEX for $60 and CCP creates 4 PLEX in game, 3 for him and 1 for CCP market alt.

In scenario a CCP decide they will insert one PLEX into the game for every $20 they get. In b and c they decide they will insert one PLEX into the game for every $15 they get. Whether this is achieved by giving extra PLEX to the guys currently buying PLEX or by giving them to themselves is utterly irrelevant, it is still creating extra PLEX. There is **** all difference between giving players currently buying PLEX a reward of an extra PLEX per 3 they bought to right click sell on the market and giving a CCP market alt in Jita a bunch of PLEX to right click sell on the market. And yet somehow we're meant to accept that the former is not direct intervention in the market whereas the latter would be.

PLEX are a virtual good, they are created at will, the only thing tying them to anything is the circumstances under which CCP choose to create them. Adjusting those with a sale is identical to creating them.
Claire Voyant
#60 - 2013-10-04 18:03:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Claire Voyant
Back in the day, RM Traders would use piles of PLEX on the theory that CCP could not track them as easily as isk. Whether it worked or not I can't say, but the large piles of confiscated PLEX might indicate that it didn't work so well. That is the general consensus anyway. No one I ever talked to admitted of first-hand knowledge.