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What is driving recent increase in Plex value

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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#21 - 2013-09-24 14:18:22 UTC
Sundiel wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
There's no need to wonder about why and how, only price talks.

(Yes I have omitted a detail, as I am going to make money on that).



How did you import tnat into a forex platform?



It's all explained in there.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
arabella blood
Keyboard Jihad
#22 - 2013-09-24 14:20:23 UTC  |  Edited by: arabella blood
@ Mynnna - Am i reading this right : Goons are not responsible for every economic change?? The hell??

Troll for hire. Cheap prices.

Sundiel
Inevitable Outcome
E.C.H.O
#23 - 2013-09-24 14:32:56 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sundiel wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
There's no need to wonder about why and how, only price talks.

(Yes I have omitted a detail, as I am going to make money on that).



How did you import tnat into a forex platform?



It's all explained in there.



Thank you very much.

Going to give a look at it
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#24 - 2013-09-24 14:34:49 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
I feel there's another factor of note - mineral prices are falling, and so are the prices of things built primarily from minerals. This means people with an understanding of the market are selling off mineral-based assets, and looking for alternative places in invest their ISKies.

The next big war should partially reverse this aspect of the trend, although the reduced buying of PLEX from CCP is probably the bigger factor.

TL:DR - we need a new 0.0 war to stimulate the economy.


Why do we have to have the war? We're tired and still recovering. I think you (highsec collectively, really) should get together, have everyone declare war on everyone else, and spend several hundred billion isk blowing each other up. If you do it right you can just do an assist chain so you don't even have to really spend anything on the war itself. And this would, in fact, do more to "stimulate the economy" than another nullsec war would, as we spend our isk on lots of non-mineral things, and you'd disrupt all the miners in highsec.


Or you could just admit your idea is sort of dumb and bad and that even really big null wars are farts in a windstorm when it comes to effect on the market as a whole. The entire expenditure on everything - not just mineral based objects, everything - by all sides in the Fountain war was perhaps a couple trillion isk. The mineral market alone moves (if I counted right) ~380 billion isk worth of minerals per day, in Jita alone. Tritanium alone is nearly a 100b isk/day market.

Stop making up excuses and go conquer all of null already, geez! :P
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#25 - 2013-09-24 14:48:05 UTC
arabella blood wrote:
@ Mynnna - Am i reading this right : Goons are not responsible for every economic change?? The hell??


Shocking, right?

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Ity Moennan
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#26 - 2013-09-24 15:47:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Ity Moennan
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
There's no need to wonder about why and how, only price talks.

(Yes I have omitted a detail, as I am going to make money on that).


ty for the
http://i.imgur.com/6qEgk0O.png
image link and link.

Are those real prices or actual prices or just some false data formatted to look good or look as the way they are?

I am mentionning this because that If it is real data that means that the prices more than doubled in 2 to 3 years.

At about 25% increase in sell value and buy value per year, it may be easier to decide when to sell those.


I also want to know if the price was up to over 600m ISK back at the end of 2012 last year?

Why is the red slope going backward up instead of continously forward?

mynnna wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
I feel there's another factor of
note - mineral prices are falling, and so are the prices of things
built primarily from minerals. This means people with an understanding
of the market are selling off mineral-based assets, and looking for
alternative places in invest their ISKies.

The next big war should partially reverse this aspect of the trend,
although the reduced buying of PLEX from CCP is probably the bigger
factor.

TL:DR - we need a new 0.0 war to stimulate the economy.


Why do we have to have the war? We're tired and still recovering. I
think you (highsec collectively, really) should get together,
have everyone declare war on everyone else, and spend several hundred
billion isk blowing each other up. If you do it right you can just do
an assist chain so you don't even have to really spend anything on the
war itself. And this would, in fact, do more to "stimulate the
economy" than another nullsec war would, as we spend our isk on lots
of non-mineral things, and you'd disrupt all the miners in
highsec.


Or you could just admit your idea is sort of dumb and bad and that
even really big null wars are farts in a windstorm when it comes to
effect on the market as a whole. The entire expenditure on everything
- not just mineral based objects, everything - by all sides in
the Fountain war was perhaps a couple trillion isk. The mineral market
alone moves (if I counted right) ~380 billion isk worth of minerals
per day, in Jita alone. Tritanium alone is nearly a 100b
isk/day market.


1. I could make 30 million ISK / hour mining in Null-sec in a Mackinaw or Hulk.
2. That is equal to 300m ISK / 10 hours and 600m ISK / 20 hours
3. It would take me 20 hours to make one PLEx at a 600m sell price.
4. If it costs me $35 for 20 hours I can save $35 by buying 2 PLEx and save 20 hours + Make 1 PLEx.
voetius
Grundrisse
#27 - 2013-09-24 16:43:40 UTC

>I also want to know if the price was up to over 600m ISK back at the end of 2012 last year?

Yes but it was a bit unusual and the result of a couple of things, massive isk faucet from faction warfare cash-outs put alot of new isk into circulation (really just transferred it from some people to the FW guys but had the effect of new isk as stated by CCP at the time) together with some outages on CCP plex redemption plus active speculation.
Ity Moennan
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#28 - 2013-09-24 17:31:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Ity Moennan
voetius wrote:

>I also want to know if the price was up to over 600m ISK back at the end of 2012 last year?

Yes but it was a bit unusual and the result of a couple of things, massive isk faucet from faction warfare cash-outs put alot of new isk into circulation (really just transferred it from some people to the FW guys but had the effect of new isk as stated by CCP at the time) together with some outages on CCP plex redemption plus active speculation.


That is approximately when I started playing.
I didn't know that it jumped the PLEx by 20% from 500m to 600m overnight as the graph indicate.
I guess the slope is just added to formulate derivative on top of the data.

More or less added ISK from new FW loot opportunities.


Edit added at 2:47p -5 GMT:
Of course those 2 PLEx @ $35 +/- $1 or $2 including transaction costs, taxes, currency exchange rate even if not traded on the Forex, do not include game time.

That would require using of those 2 PLEx to pay for game time.

It also omits Buddy options and Catalyst Collection to join the Catalyst Corp. and the current Advanced Cerebral Accelerator +17.

Including those factors in the equation would further complicate the result, although it would be more accurate.
It is not that complicated to calculate although it does require time as well.
It would be easier to recalculate once the first iteration has been properly executed and/or recorded.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#29 - 2013-09-24 22:46:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Ity Moennan wrote:


Are those real prices or actual prices or just some false data formatted to look good or look as the way they are?


It's an automated process that happens for the 20-30 or so markets I generate charts for. If the EvE client market history cached data is truthful then that chart is.


Ity Moennan wrote:

I am mentionning this because that If it is real data that means that the prices more than doubled in 2 to 3 years.

At about 25% increase in sell value and buy value per year, it may be easier to decide when to sell those.


As I said, price talks. It's up to you to read or listen to it in a way that makes you money. I don't really care if it goes up or down, just that moves.


Ity Moennan wrote:

I also want to know if the price was up to over 600m ISK back at the end of 2012 last year?


It's printed on the picture.


Ity Moennan wrote:

Why is the red slope going backward up instead of continously forward?


The red slope (also known as trend line) delimits a market structure called triangle. It's useful to determine accumulations which in turn result in momentum spikes which in turn result in ISK in wallet.

I did not update the trend line in the next months, anyone can go in last half year charts and see those lines already in place and the market doing exactly what it said it'd do. In fact the long term trend line is still valid, like half year ago.
The day it'll break then I'll remove it.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Ity Moennan
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#30 - 2013-09-24 23:59:10 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I did not update the trend line in the next months, ...

... anyone can go in last half year charts and see those lines already in place and the market doing exactly what it said it'd do.

In fact the long term trend line is still valid, like half year ago.
The day it'll break then I'll remove it.


It goes from January 2011.

Where are those last half year charts or where can I find them or look at them?
I would like to see that.

Perhaps I can EVE Mail you or discuss this otherwise.

Is it in your
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=49927
Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE
thread?
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#31 - 2013-09-25 06:36:43 UTC
Ity Moennan wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I did not update the trend line in the next months, ...

... anyone can go in last half year charts and see those lines already in place and the market doing exactly what it said it'd do.

In fact the long term trend line is still valid, like half year ago.
The day it'll break then I'll remove it.


It goes from January 2011.

Where are those last half year charts or where can I find them or look at them?
I would like to see that.

Perhaps I can EVE Mail you or discuss this otherwise.

Is it in your
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=49927
Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE
thread?


It might be, but some broad interest topics like PLEX made me post charts everywhere. Just look at this thread, it's not the linked one yet it's where I posted the chart. Those who follow my posts probably know more than me, who am busy doing stuff enough to not record every breath I take.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Zaxix
State War Academy
Caldari State
#32 - 2013-09-25 14:58:02 UTC
Where's Dr. E and his pile of confiscated PLEX?

Bokononist

 
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#33 - 2013-09-25 16:58:25 UTC
Zaxix wrote:
Where's Dr. E and his pile of confiscated PLEX?

It wasn't price alone that caused him to act last time.

PLEX could reach 700m, 800m or even more without there being any need for him to intervene.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#34 - 2013-09-26 00:31:16 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
I feel there's another factor of note - mineral prices are falling, and so are the prices of things built primarily from minerals. This means people with an understanding of the market are selling off mineral-based assets, and looking for alternative places in invest their ISKies.

The next big war should partially reverse this aspect of the trend, although the reduced buying of PLEX from CCP is probably the bigger factor.

TL:DR - we need a new 0.0 war to stimulate the economy.


Why do we have to have the war? We're tired and still recovering. I think you (highsec collectively, really) should get together, have everyone declare war on everyone else, and spend several hundred billion isk blowing each other up. If you do it right you can just do an assist chain so you don't even have to really spend anything on the war itself. And this would, in fact, do more to "stimulate the economy" than another nullsec war would, as we spend our isk on lots of non-mineral things, and you'd disrupt all the miners in highsec.


Or you could just admit your idea is sort of dumb and bad and that even really big null wars are farts in a windstorm when it comes to effect on the market as a whole. The entire expenditure on everything - not just mineral based objects, everything - by all sides in the Fountain war was perhaps a couple trillion isk. The mineral market alone moves (if I counted right) ~380 billion isk worth of minerals per day, in Jita alone. Tritanium alone is nearly a 100b isk/day market.


It doesn't need to be your alliance specifically. 0.0 is big.

Total losses in Fountain might have been only something like 2-3 trillion as you say, but I'm sure a lot of line members of the alliances involved stockpiled quite a few extra ships that weren't lost.

After all, I made over a billion (on limited trading capital) just in meta 4 sensor dampeners, probably trading enough to fit 250 Celestises, just in Dodixie. If we assume I controlled half the market there, and that Dodixie accounted for 20% of supply of those modules to null (an unlikely assumption), that means about 2500 Celestises with 4 Phased Muon Dampeners were acquired for the war.

How many of those were lost? Probably nothing like 2500. Most likely they are sitting in either alliance stockpiles or members' hangars. That doesn't change the economic stimulus effect.


That said, I'm definitely supportive of more wars in highsec, and other carnage too - hence sponsoring st0ner smurf, the New Order, and doing my bit to cause chaos.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#35 - 2013-09-26 15:49:48 UTC
Amazon PLEX sale: 3 and 6 packs 25% off on Amazon.com http://www.amazon.com/PLEX-EVE-Online-Game-Connect/dp/B00A2CI9L8/ref=pd_sim_vg_1
Zaxix
State War Academy
Caldari State
#36 - 2013-09-26 18:09:05 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Zaxix wrote:
Where's Dr. E and his pile of confiscated PLEX?

It wasn't price alone that caused him to act last time.

PLEX could reach 700m, 800m or even more without there being any need for him to intervene.

I can't seem to find the article/minutes/whatever the info was originally posted in. My Google Fu is totally failing me. Do have a link? If not, what was the other reason?

Bokononist

 
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#37 - 2013-09-26 18:40:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Bad Bobby
Zaxix wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
Zaxix wrote:
Where's Dr. E and his pile of confiscated PLEX?

It wasn't price alone that caused him to act last time.

PLEX could reach 700m, 800m or even more without there being any need for him to intervene.

I can't seem to find the article/minutes/whatever the info was originally posted in. My Google Fu is totally failing me. Do have a link? If not, what was the other reason?

The Fanfest economy section. The piece you are interested in starts at about 29:30.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie9V2P5El0E
Zaxix
State War Academy
Caldari State
#38 - 2013-09-26 18:48:48 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Zaxix wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:
Zaxix wrote:
Where's Dr. E and his pile of confiscated PLEX?

It wasn't price alone that caused him to act last time.

PLEX could reach 700m, 800m or even more without there being any need for him to intervene.

I can't seem to find the article/minutes/whatever the info was originally posted in. My Google Fu is totally failing me. Do have a link? If not, what was the other reason?

The Fanfest economy section. The piece you are interested in starts at about 29:30.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie9V2P5El0E

Danke

Bokononist

 
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#39 - 2013-09-28 16:34:18 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
Zaxix wrote:
Where's Dr. E and his pile of confiscated PLEX?

It wasn't price alone that caused him to act last time.

PLEX could reach 700m, 800m or even more without there being any need for him to intervene.

I'd call the Amazon PLEX sale a form of intervention nevertheless :P
Alex Grison
Grison Universal
#40 - 2013-09-28 17:32:10 UTC
I am driving.

Armed with only an instructional permit and a mug of coffee with extra sugar.

good luck everybody.

yes