These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Science & Industry

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

Market Fallout - After the attack on CCP's servers

Author
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#1 - 2013-06-03 16:55:58 UTC
I Expect that I was not the only one planning to spend most of this past weekend mining ICE before the changes go live tomorrow. Personally I am out 2500-3000 Blocks of ICE, with no way to replace them before the change. Not to mention most of my ships lost their full flight of T2 drones as well.

I know CCP will compensate us in some way for the lost game time, but this really through a wrench in my plans for the next several months. I would have had enough ICE products to fuel my POS for several months until the market stabilized. Now I am SOL.

I am just curious how many others had similar plans to mine ICE this past weekend, and how big of an impact this lost stock pile will have. If there are 100 other players with a similar set up to my own. Some would mine more, and some less, but on average, if they all lost 2500-3000 blocks worth of mining this weekend, that is a 250,000-300,000 stockpile of ICE did not get created.

This could be good or bad depending on how you look at it, But it almost seems like it could have been planed by CCP, to stop this temporary work around of the coming ICE supply nerf. If not give me the ICE I would have mined had the servers not gone down.
Haulie Berry
#2 - 2013-06-03 17:19:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Quote:
I Expect that I was not the only one planning to spend most of this past weekend mining ICE before the changes go live tomorrow. Personally I am out 2500-3000 Blocks of ICE, with no way to replace them before the change.


No, you're really not "out" anything. You would be "out" the ice if you had done the work of mining the ice, and received no ice. While it's not your fault your weren't able to do the work, you haven't been shorted anything that you actually earned.

Quote:
I know CCP will compensate us in some way for the lost game time, but this really through a wrench in my plans for the next several months.


Good news: You can just go to the market and buy some fuel blocks and it will be fine.

Bugsy VanHalen wrote:

This could be good or bad depending on how you look at it, But it almost seems like it could have been planed by CCP, to stop this temporary work around of the coming ICE supply nerf.


It does not "almost seem like it could have been planned by CCP" to anyone with an IQ that exceeds their shoe size.

People have been hardfarming ice for well over a month now. I'm going to venture a guess that nobody at CCP said, "Hey guys, I've got it, I've got it... let's completely shut down our REAL business for a day to prevent an additional crotch-hair's worth of ice (relative to what's been mined since FF) from being mined before Odyssey drops. That makes sense, right? And to keep anyone from catching on to our cunning conspiracy, we'll shut down our newly released PS3 game, too, even though that really has nothing to do with ice at all. Gotta make it look legit, right?"

Quote:
If not give me the ICE I would have mined had the servers not gone down.


Yeah... and give me the Estamel's Invuln I obviously would have gotten from the officer ratting I was planning on doing yesterday, too!

Seriously, this is the dumbest whine of the day. Fuel is readily available right now at a price that is only about 25-30% higher than it was before the speculation began. If your POS operation is even remotely efficient, this is still a very low cost.
Eric Raeder
No Fee Too High
#3 - 2013-06-03 18:53:03 UTC
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:
I Expect that I was not the only one planning to spend most of this past weekend mining ICE before the changes go live tomorrow. Personally I am out 2500-3000 Blocks of ICE, with no way to replace them before the change. Not to mention most of my ships lost their full flight of T2 drones as well.

I know CCP will compensate us in some way for the lost game time, but this really through a wrench in my plans for the next several months. I would have had enough ICE products to fuel my POS for several months until the market stabilized. Now I am SOL.

I am just curious how many others had similar plans to mine ICE this past weekend, and how big of an impact this lost stock pile will have. If there are 100 other players with a similar set up to my own. Some would mine more, and some less, but on average, if they all lost 2500-3000 blocks worth of mining this weekend, that is a 250,000-300,000 stockpile of ICE did not get created.

This could be good or bad depending on how you look at it, But it almost seems like it could have been planed by CCP, to stop this temporary work around of the coming ICE supply nerf. If not give me the ICE I would have mined had the servers not gone down.

I wasn't going to mine ice, but I had intended to make other preparations for the expansion that are now seriously disrupted. I really wish CCP would delay releasing Oddysey for a day or two.
Marthai
LONE STAR MINING AND DEFENSE LTD
Damned Brotherhood
#4 - 2013-06-03 19:13:37 UTC
Eric Raeder wrote:

I wasn't going to mine ice, but I had intended to make other preparations for the expansion that are now seriously disrupted. I really wish CCP would delay releasing Oddysey for a day or two.


I agree. I was going to Ice mine all day on Sunday, then do inventory of my ships, modules, etc. to ready for Exploration after expansion hits. Today I'm at work, and will have little time to devote to Eve. Boohoo! :(



Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#5 - 2013-06-03 19:26:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Bugsy VanHalen
Haulie Berry wrote:
something about people with high I.Q.s having large feet.

WOW, you take this game way way to seriously.

It is just a game, not a major crysis, unless maybe you have no life outside of EVE.

my play time is very limited, this would have been the first time in 6 months I would have spent most of my weekend online. now there is no time left. So yes I did miss out on every thing I would have collected had I been able to play this weekend. But that was not my point.

Regardless of how many ICE miners have been stocking up for the last several months, I guarantee had the servers been up almost everyone who mines ICE would have been out in full force in a big blitz one last time before Odyssey. I have over 10,000 blocks stock piled, and am adding more today, but I am still out, at least in opportunity costs 2500-3000 blocks. Not that I expect anything for that, as you say I did not actually do the work. it is like showing up for work and getting sent home because the power is out. No work no pay, although most companies would provide a little compensation just for showing up willing to work. Where I used to work you got payed 4 hours just for showing up, if you got sent home due to whether or whatever. I expect CCp will give us a very fair compensation, but i'm not the least bit worried about that.

My point was the amount of ICE that would have been mined this weekend would have been a massive stock pile. maybe not quit so big compared to the pile already hoarded, but still quite large. The crack about CCP doing it on purpose was supposed to be a joke, sorry you missed it. I admit, it was a bad joke.

But back to the point at hand, what is the impact to the market that this stock pile was never created. Haulie seems to think the impact is minimal and insignificant. It very well could be. There could be enough ICE horded to supply ICE needs in EVE for the next 8-12 months, regardless of how much more is mined. Supplemented by what is mined daily after Odyssey it could be years before prices settle based on the new supply. This weekend may have added 1 month to that. Maybe more maybe less. But either way it would have had an impact.

What will the fallout be? Will we see ICE prices drop due to the hoarded supply being so far beyond the demand that ICE will not need to be mined for the next 6 months? Don't forget that after tomorrow mining ships will pull ICE in twice as fast. With so much ICE being horded the limited supply of new ICE may be a minor factor. Who will be the big winners? The ones unloading their stock piles today while other are frantically grabbing all they can before DT? I believe there are so many stock piles that for the next 6 months the limited supply from new ICE belts will be nothing compared to the massive stock piles. So many players have hoarded so much ICE in the last few months that the fallout may crash the ICE market.

There has got to be as many opinions on this as there are stock piles of ICE. I thought it would make for a good discussion. Does anyone have an opinion of this that does not include insulting players with excessively large feet??
Zifrian
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#6 - 2013-06-03 19:38:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Zifrian
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:
I Expect that I was not the only one planning to spend most of this past weekend mining ICE before the changes go live tomorrow. Personally I am out 2500-3000 Blocks of ICE, with no way to replace them before the change. Not to mention most of my ships lost their full flight of T2 drones as well.

I know CCP will compensate us in some way for the lost game time, but this really through a wrench in my plans for the next several months. I would have had enough ICE products to fuel my POS for several months until the market stabilized. Now I am SOL.

I am just curious how many others had similar plans to mine ICE this past weekend, and how big of an impact this lost stock pile will have. If there are 100 other players with a similar set up to my own. Some would mine more, and some less, but on average, if they all lost 2500-3000 blocks worth of mining this weekend, that is a 250,000-300,000 stockpile of ICE did not get created.

This could be good or bad depending on how you look at it, But it almost seems like it could have been planed by CCP, to stop this temporary work around of the coming ICE supply nerf. If not give me the ICE I would have mined had the servers not gone down.

Um...you think CCP caused this? That's a bit of a stretch. Not that many people care about the high-sec ice mining nerf. In fact a lot of people, myself included, love it. But I'll take it from you, it is a game. Perhaps you should double check your conspiracy theory again?

As far as downtime, we're all in the same boat. Not sure why they should "give us ICE" just because I planned to mine it. Should the give me 5 billion isk because I was hoping to sell a jump freighter to someone? Should they give me all the ore I didn't mine on a lazy Sunday? Should they give me 500mil in bounties and the loot from them for the missions and ratting I could have done?

The market will respond to supply and demand, just like it always does.

Maximze your Industry Potential! - Download EVE Isk per Hour!

Import CCP's SDE - EVE SDE Database Builder

Haulie Berry
#7 - 2013-06-03 19:44:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:
Haulie Berry wrote:
something about people with high I.Q.s having large feet.

WOW, you take this game way way to seriously.

It is just a game, not a major crysis, unless maybe you have no life outside of EVE.


Yes, the person who is completely indifferent to compensation for an unplanned downtime is the one that is taking it seriously. Your logic is unassailable. Cool

But seriously, there's no way in hell one day's worth of mining lost is going to have a measurable impact given the uptick of ice mining in the last 1-2 months.

It will probably be a long time - months, yet - before the new, limited availability of ice is even sort of felt in the market, and it's entirely possible that even then, the price is going to be down from the current, speculation-driven value.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#8 - 2013-06-04 04:32:14 UTC
The fail is strong in this thread.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Hieren Andven
Liberated Planet Development
#9 - 2013-06-04 13:38:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Hieren Andven
Quote:
my play time is very limited, this would have been the first time in 6 months I would have spent most of my weekend online


Very little play time... and you decide to spend that time mining ice.

Okay then.
Flardowell
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#10 - 2013-06-04 13:49:41 UTC
Maybe you should have had your ICE done way ahead of time before the ICE belt changes were announced. Then, maybe you can actually do a post without ICE written out and whining about something ICE related thats beyond ********.

Oh and for the record,

ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE
Gizznitt Malikite
Agony Unleashed
Agony Empire
#11 - 2013-06-04 17:29:06 UTC
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:
Haulie Berry wrote:
something about people with high I.Q.s having large feet.

WOW, you take this game way way to seriously.

It is just a game, not a major crysis, unless maybe you have no life outside of EVE.

my play time is very limited, this would have been the first time in 6 months I would have spent most of my weekend online. now there is no time left. So yes I did miss out on every thing I would have collected had I been able to play this weekend. But that was not my point.

Regardless of how many ICE miners have been stocking up for the last several months, I guarantee had the servers been up almost everyone who mines ICE would have been out in full force in a big blitz one last time before Odyssey. I have over 10,000 blocks stock piled, and am adding more today, but I am still out, at least in opportunity costs 2500-3000 blocks. Not that I expect anything for that, as you say I did not actually do the work. it is like showing up for work and getting sent home because the power is out. No work no pay, although most companies would provide a little compensation just for showing up willing to work. Where I used to work you got payed 4 hours just for showing up, if you got sent home due to whether or whatever. I expect CCp will give us a very fair compensation, but i'm not the least bit worried about that.

My point was the amount of ICE that would have been mined this weekend would have been a massive stock pile. maybe not quit so big compared to the pile already hoarded, but still quite large. The crack about CCP doing it on purpose was supposed to be a joke, sorry you missed it. I admit, it was a bad joke.

But back to the point at hand, what is the impact to the market that this stock pile was never created. Haulie seems to think the impact is minimal and insignificant. It very well could be. There could be enough ICE horded to supply ICE needs in EVE for the next 8-12 months, regardless of how much more is mined. Supplemented by what is mined daily after Odyssey it could be years before prices settle based on the new supply. This weekend may have added 1 month to that. Maybe more maybe less. But either way it would have had an impact.

What will the fallout be? Will we see ICE prices drop due to the hoarded supply being so far beyond the demand that ICE will not need to be mined for the next 6 months? Don't forget that after tomorrow mining ships will pull ICE in twice as fast. With so much ICE being horded the limited supply of new ICE may be a minor factor. Who will be the big winners? The ones unloading their stock piles today while other are frantically grabbing all they can before DT? I believe there are so many stock piles that for the next 6 months the limited supply from new ICE belts will be nothing compared to the massive stock piles. So many players have hoarded so much ICE in the last few months that the fallout may crash the ICE market.

There has got to be as many opinions on this as there are stock piles of ICE. I thought it would make for a good discussion. Does anyone have an opinion of this that does not include insulting players with excessively large feet??


When you wait to the last minute, things can screw you. Everyone else that waited to the last minute are S.O.L. too.

You don't get any "special" compensation above and beyond everyone else.

As for your speculation, time will tell.
Arronicus
State War Academy
Caldari State
#12 - 2013-06-05 10:44:15 UTC
Guess you shouldn't have left everything to the last minute.
Untanas Volmyr
Perkone
Caldari State
#13 - 2013-06-06 18:53:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Untanas Volmyr
What I heard was someone left a window open at CCP. And a flock of rogue courier pigeons made they're way into the server room where they keep the hamsters. Resulting in mass hysteria. The conspiracy is this is always what really happens. Its a growing threat lately.

Murphy's Technology Law - If your not thoroughly confused. Then you were not thoroughly informed.

Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#14 - 2013-06-10 14:10:52 UTC
Haulie Berry wrote:

But seriously, there's no way in hell one day's worth of mining lost is going to have a measurable impact given the uptick of ice mining in the last 1-2 months.

It will probably be a long time - months, yet - before the new, limited availability of ice is even sort of felt in the market, and it's entirely possible that even then, the price is going to be down from the current, speculation-driven value.


Now this is the type of comment I was looking for. A perfectly logical opinion on the market impact.

I never once said I was looking for compensation for this lost time, or lost ICE.

My Though was that if I was planing on spend most of the last weekend before the change mining ICE, that many others would be doing the same. This was not just one day of ICE mining. It was a day for ICE mining, that I believe would have seen far more activity than a normal day.

If the majority of ICE miners had the same thought I did, to spend this last weekend topping up supplies there would have been far far more ICE mined than during a normal day.

To the rest of you I say; This has nothing to do with me missing out on an opportunity, everyone did, it has nothing to do with compensation. It is about whether or not it would have any impact on the ICE market.

I did not wait until the last minute, I have been mining ICE for months, the same as everyone else. My point was, I expect many others would have been planing to blitz this last weekend of unlimited ICE the same as I planed.

If so there would have been far more ICE mined than in a normal day. Personally it would have been about 25% of my stockpile. I am not complaining about the lost opportunity, and I was mini9ng ICE well in advanced, but was planing on taking advantage of this last opportunity.

I suspect Haulie is right. Stock piles should be large enough that the impact would not be noticeable. At best the stock piles will run dry a day or two sooner. I expect I would have mined about 1500 blocks, if out of the 50,000 or so players usually logged in on the weekend 1000 of them would have done the same that would have potentially been another 2,500,000 blocks of ICE added to that stockpile. Not an insignificant number regardless of how large the existing stockpile is.

I had hoped to have a discussion in this thread, not about lost opportunities, or compensation, but about that possible market impact. This discussion could have lead to a clearer picture of just how large the existing stockpile is. This would have been valuable information for all of us. Will the changes create a shortage of ICE and drive the ICE prices up? Yes it will, eventually, But the question is when?

Will the existing stockpiles be so large that it will at least in the short term cause ICE prices to dive? Gauging the impact of this final weekend of ICE mining would have given a clearer picture of just how large these stockpile are, but instead the thread was full of trolls that can not even bother the read. I would have expected that in GD but not in S&I.
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#15 - 2013-06-10 14:29:17 UTC
Gizznitt Malikite wrote:

When you wait to the last minute, things can screw you. Everyone else that waited to the last minute are S.O.L. too.

You don't get any "special" compensation above and beyond everyone else.

As for your speculation, time will tell.


I didn't wait I have been mining for months. I do not expect any compensation, that was not the point of the thread.

The speculation was the point. Agree or disagree, what impact do you see this having? If like Haulie you think the impact will be unnoticeable, that is still valuable information.

If the existing stockpiles are so large that this lost opportunity for a final blitz on ICE mining will have no impact, than everyone expecting to capitalize on the skyrocketing price of ICE will be waiting a long time. If the stockpile is that big it is more likely to crash the price.

This is what I was training to determine when I started this thread. It was not started to complain about the lost opportunity, or a cry for compensation. The title may have been a little to much, but it is about the market impact.

I for one assumed that ICE stockpiles were excessively large and unloaded most of my stockpile. Aside from what I need for 8 months of fuel. The prices have been going down, I expect they will start really dropping soon, as more players realize that those stockpiles are not drying up any time soon. If you were hording ICE get out while the getting is still good.