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What are the odds? A server mechanics question.
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Altered Ego
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#1 - 2013-05-29 01:29:32 UTC
What are the odds of me dropping a bookmark right on top of a ship in space as I warp past it. I'm asking because i just did it, completely by accident.

I ask because it -shouldn't- happen, at least not in the real world with real world rules of probability. So how does the server work to make this happen?

Thanks
stoicfaux
#2 - 2013-05-29 01:33:45 UTC
Altered Ego wrote:

I ask because it -shouldn't- happen, at least not in the real world with real world rules of probability. So how does the server work to make this happen?


"shouldn't happen" and "probability" shouldn't appear in the same sentence.


Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.
Doc Fury
Furious Enterprises
#3 - 2013-05-29 01:34:27 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
Altered Ego wrote:

I ask because it -shouldn't- happen, at least not in the real world with real world rules of probability. So how does the server work to make this happen?


"shouldn't happen" and "probability" shouldn't appear in the same sentence.





It's over 9000:1 !!!!

☼

There's a million angry citizens looking down their tubes..at me.
Lugia3
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#4 - 2013-05-29 03:51:21 UTC
It's a viable hunting tactic. If someone has a safe between two celestials, you can narrow the gap down between bookmarks until you eventually land on grid with them.

I have gotten a few kills like that in the past.

"CCP Dolan is full of shit." - CCP Bettik
Adunh Slavy
#5 - 2013-05-29 04:09:42 UTC
You would have to click the button before you see them. What ya do is warp back and forth between book marks on the same vector, getting shorter and shorter. Sooner or later you get close enough.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
Arduemont
Rotten Legion
#6 - 2013-05-29 05:02:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Arduemont
Altered Ego wrote:
What are the odds of me dropping a bookmark right on top of a ship in space as I warp past it. I'm asking because i just did it, completely by accident.

I ask because it -shouldn't- happen, at least not in the real world with real world rules of probability. So how does the server work to make this happen?

Thanks


Given an infinite amount of time everything, no matter how improbable, will happen eventually.

"In the age of information, ignorance is a choice." www.stateofwar.co.nf
Destoya
Habitual Euthanasia
Pandemic Legion
#7 - 2013-05-29 05:29:59 UTC
Bookmarks/safespots dont seem to be on a completely random grid system when they are made, at least when they are created at around the same time.

It happens quite frequently when a fleet is told to make their own personal safespots in warp that a good number of them end up at the same spot together. I'm not sure it works the same way if, for instance, you try the same thing later from a different direction but still interesting to note.
Altered Ego
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#8 - 2013-05-29 21:15:03 UTC
Destoya wrote:
Bookmarks/safespots dont seem to be on a completely random grid system when they are made, at least when they are created at around the same time.


This ship was an Ibis i dropped out there days before to test how often a ship shows up on the overlay as you warp past it. (short answer; not that often)

Destoya wrote:
It happens quite frequently when a fleet is told to make their own personal safespots in warp that a good number of them end up at the same spot together. I'm not sure it works the same way if, for instance, you try the same thing later from a different direction but still interesting to note.


That must be because Eve is a one second sever. Although it doesn't seem that way in fleet, because you're seeing the warp animation, the server must just shunt the fleet onto the next set of co-ords every second. So it some pilots create a BM within the same second of each other, the BM \'s would end up at the same grid.

After some thought, I think that i was close enough to the ibis that the server decided to send me to that grid instead of making a whole new one.

'Why make a new grid when I already have a perfectly good one nearby?'
Karsa Egivand
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#9 - 2013-05-29 21:32:17 UTC
Much higher than you think.

Bookmarks while warping are only made at discrete steps, not really in a continuum. This is related to your warp speed, which is why for making midsafes, SLOWER ships (like industrials!) are better. CovOps are the worst, as when they are at full speed they can only make a handful of different bookmarks between any two celestials. The slower your warpspeed, the more unique bookmarks between any two points while warping.
Inxentas Ultramar
Ultramar Independent Contracting
#10 - 2013-05-29 22:26:23 UTC
Ever seen a ship 'flash' by on your overview in warp? With some proper scanning and guesswork, it's not even that hard to make yourself land on grid with it, or even determine at what range you will approximately drop out of warp if the target is sitting still. Once you make a bookmark you have something you can warp to, but also align towards so you can make directional scans. Safes in between celestials are not 'safe' places to AFK at all. Once someone has worked out you are somewhere between X and Y you can be sniffed out by a good bookmarker. If you sit in such a place and see a ship 'flash' on your overview, it might be smart to assume someone is pinpointing you. If it happens twice it happened one time to many. GTFO.
Yigal Tzadok
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#11 - 2013-05-30 00:20:08 UTC
deal with it
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#12 - 2013-05-30 00:24:57 UTC
the server operates on one second ticks

there are far, far fewer spots between two celestials that a ship would be in given one-second ticks and warp speeds than you would think
Xavier Liche
ACME Mineral and Gas
#13 - 2013-05-30 00:44:57 UTC
Doc Fury wrote:
stoicfaux wrote:
Altered Ego wrote:

I ask because it -shouldn't- happen, at least not in the real world with real world rules of probability. So how does the server work to make this happen?


"shouldn't happen" and "probability" shouldn't appear in the same sentence.





It's over 9000:1 !!!!



Wish I could get those odds on Powerball Cool
Toshiroma McDiesel
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#14 - 2013-05-30 00:53:33 UTC
Ford, there's a infinite number of monkeys at the door that want to talk to about this script for Shakespeare they've typed up.

I"m not really the Evil One, I'm just his answering service.
Lozif
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#15 - 2013-05-30 06:07:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Lozif
stoicfaux wrote:
Altered Ego wrote:

I ask because it -shouldn't- happen, at least not in the real world with real world rules of probability. So how does the server work to make this happen?


"shouldn't happen" and "probability" shouldn't appear in the same sentence.




The probability that it shouldn't happen in one sentence is 1 to ? hmmm well cant figure the odds out.
Lexmana
#16 - 2013-05-30 06:18:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Lexmana
Doc Fury wrote:
stoicfaux wrote:
Altered Ego wrote:

I ask because it -shouldn't- happen, at least not in the real world with real world rules of probability. So how does the server work to make this happen?


"shouldn't happen" and "probability" shouldn't appear in the same sentence.





It's over 9000:1 !!!!



Only if the warp takes more than ≈2.5 hours.
Raiz Nhell
PeregrineXII
#17 - 2013-05-30 06:48:37 UTC
"Never tell me the odds"


And as people have pointed out, the server has 1 second ticks
So if you warp at 6AU a second, and you warp 60AU, you have the ability to create 10 distinct bookmarks.
So for two identical ships on the same warp path you have a reasonable chance of landing on him.

For non identical ships the odds get a bit funky...

Also did you slap the guy you landed on around a bit for not making an off lane safe spot...

There is no such thing as a fair fight...

If your fighting fair you have automatically put yourself at a disadvantage.
Skydell
Bad Girl Posse
#18 - 2013-05-30 06:52:34 UTC
The lesson here? Even when making safe spots, warping to 0 is not a good idea.
Minty Aroma
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#19 - 2013-05-30 07:23:26 UTC
Just don't make a safe spot between 2 Celestials - make spot 0 between 2 Celestials, then warp to a 3rd around 90 degrees off and drop the actual safe spot - there, a random point in space!

Can make it even more random by doing the process again, now it is extremely hard to get to you.
Malak Dawnfire
Unquestionable Prosperity
Grand Inquisitors Federation
#20 - 2013-05-30 08:31:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Malak Dawnfire
Doc Fury wrote:
stoicfaux wrote:
Altered Ego wrote:

I ask because it -shouldn't- happen, at least not in the real world with real world rules of probability. So how does the server work to make this happen?


"shouldn't happen" and "probability" shouldn't appear in the same sentence.





It's over 9000:1 !!!!



NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS!!

Raiz Nhell wrote:
"Never tell me the odds"


Damn you.