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SOMER Blink - Microlotteries that Finish in Minutes! 1 QUADRILLION ISK Won!

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Selkie Love
Doomheim
#1421 - 2013-02-06 05:46:10 UTC
32 losses in a row, most with one ticket bought, some with 50% of them bought.

So glad I got myself banned from blink :D
Jakob Anedalle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#1422 - 2013-02-06 23:52:55 UTC
So the statistics talk about win/losses, but how about:

* Most requested ship Blink?
* Most requested non-ship Blink?

Maybe both of those for all-time and for last 7 day period?

Trying out all the things to do here in Eve - it's quite a checklist. So I made a blog Jakob's Eve Checklist
JusFooling Around
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#1423 - 2013-02-08 08:46:56 UTC
Selkie Love wrote:
32 losses in a row, most with one ticket bought, some with 50% of them bought.

So glad I got myself banned from blink :D



So, what kind of cheating were you doing to get yourself banned? You do know Blink won't ban you on request, right?

Is that sour grapes I smell coming from your post?

lesseee here... 32 losses.... hmmm... most with one ticket... dunno how many "most" really is, so give him the benefit of the doubt, let's say most equals 20, so that means 12 would be 50% or maybe less and he doesn't give us any idea if they are all 8 ticket or 16 ticket or a mix. but because he is such a doubtful guy, he gets that benefit again.

So, the 20 single ticket losses in 8 ticket games would mean 140 losing tickets and 20 winning tickets - that means 2 in 14 and by damn that means 1 in 7! He musta believed that crap some loser once told him about the "Law" of averages. Law is not a squishy word. Theory is really squishy. So the people who understand statistics named it the "Theory" of regression toward the mean. That basically means that given "some number" of random drawings, coin tosses, or jelly on one side of the bread drops - all possible outcomes will work their way back toward (careful here not to misunderstand reach, but only move toward) the same occurences as every other number, coin side, or jellied side. And the "some number" could be infinity. If it could be predicted, it would not be gambling. Yes, you could toss a coin 5000 times and not come up with an equal number of heads and tails. Unlikely the difference would be great, but it certainly is within the realm of actual trials to have been greater than 120. And because those stupid experiments are always done by graduate students who haven't learned enough about statistics to be taking the classes on their schedule so a professor gives them the assignment, they are probably not good at boring repetitive tasks and often just tell their professor they did it and fudge the numbers - you kinow, cheat.... Which is kind of ironic as failing to be bright enough to understand something as simple as probability theoriy often leads a person to an occupation which involves boring repetitive tasks.

The remaining 12 then would be losing at a 50% chance. Do you have any idea how many people have gone broke with real money thinking it was impossible to lose more than 12 times with a 50% chance of winning? Hell, I don't either. But when you get old enough to go into a real casino, just stand around and count them. Be sure not to wear any shoes or socks, because the number will be over 10 if you spend a couple of hours doing it.

I'll just bet you are not the only one who is glad you "got" yourself banned. And I don't really give a damn how you got caught cheating, or how you were cheating, so please, don't bore me any more than you already have. And I certainly hope I have bored you, too. Because I was replying to your quote and anyone else who read this far and got bored, well then, maybe they need to look at their ability to discern, and I don't give a damn if they are bored either. So, here's a toast to Blocks all around!

هتاف!
Babar Baboli
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#1424 - 2013-02-08 12:55:40 UTC
If I win the current minibonk, I will start a blog to salute all of you in Cognitive Distortion!
Think about it!
Kastio Delago
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#1425 - 2013-02-09 04:18:44 UTC
My Blink account was banned today because a separate computer (roomie's blink account still working) under the same IP played a promo when I did. Can I please be unbanned, at least until the bonks are finished then it's probably a good thing cause I spend way too much of the isk I win right back into this fantastically addictive game.

Cheers,
KD
Selkie Love
Doomheim
#1426 - 2013-02-09 07:41:02 UTC
JusFooling Around wrote:
Selkie Love wrote:
32 losses in a row, most with one ticket bought, some with 50% of them bought.

So glad I got myself banned from blink :D



So, what kind of cheating were you doing to get yourself banned? You do know Blink won't ban you on request, right?

Is that sour grapes I smell coming from your post?

lesseee here... 32 losses.... hmmm... most with one ticket... dunno how many "most" really is, so give him the benefit of the doubt, let's say most equals 20, so that means 12 would be 50% or maybe less and he doesn't give us any idea if they are all 8 ticket or 16 ticket or a mix. but because he is such a doubtful guy, he gets that benefit again.

So, the 20 single ticket losses in 8 ticket games would mean 140 losing tickets and 20 winning tickets - that means 2 in 14 and by damn that means 1 in 7! He musta believed that crap some loser once told him about the "Law" of averages. Law is not a squishy word. Theory is really squishy. So the people who understand statistics named it the "Theory" of regression toward the mean. That basically means that given "some number" of random drawings, coin tosses, or jelly on one side of the bread drops - all possible outcomes will work their way back toward (careful here not to misunderstand reach, but only move toward) the same occurences as every other number, coin side, or jellied side. And the "some number" could be infinity. If it could be predicted, it would not be gambling. Yes, you could toss a coin 5000 times and not come up with an equal number of heads and tails. Unlikely the difference would be great, but it certainly is within the realm of actual trials to have been greater than 120. And because those stupid experiments are always done by graduate students who haven't learned enough about statistics to be taking the classes on their schedule so a professor gives them the assignment, they are probably not good at boring repetitive tasks and often just tell their professor they did it and fudge the numbers - you kinow, cheat.... Which is kind of ironic as failing to be bright enough to understand something as simple as probability theoriy often leads a person to an occupation which involves boring repetitive tasks.

The remaining 12 then would be losing at a 50% chance. Do you have any idea how many people have gone broke with real money thinking it was impossible to lose more than 12 times with a 50% chance of winning? Hell, I don't either. But when you get old enough to go into a real casino, just stand around and count them. Be sure not to wear any shoes or socks, because the number will be over 10 if you spend a couple of hours doing it.

I'll just bet you are not the only one who is glad you "got" yourself banned. And I don't really give a damn how you got caught cheating, or how you were cheating, so please, don't bore me any more than you already have. And I certainly hope I have bored you, too. Because I was replying to your quote and anyone else who read this far and got bored, well then, maybe they need to look at their ability to discern, and I don't give a damn if they are bored either. So, here's a toast to Blocks all around!

هتاف!



4 were with 50% bought, the rest were with one bought, every blink was with 8 tickets.

(1/2)^4*(1-(1/8))^28 = .14% chance of occuring.

At that probability, you stop, and you ask yourself "Is it possible that it's not fair? Could it be, that instead of being fair, that there's some sort of rigging going on behind the scenes?"

To clarify: If I have a coin, with heads and tails, and I flip it 100 times, and every time it's heads- what are my odds on the next flip that it'll be heads?

If you use frequency statistics, you'll say 50%. If you use Bayesian statics, you'll say it'll be heads.

In short, I felt the numbers being generated were odd enough that I wouldn't play anymore. How I got myself banned was to loudly and frequently say I was botting in the main channel until I got a ban.


Now, it's entirely possible that blink is 100% fair, and that my one string of bad luck is indeed a statistical anomaly. They happen. I'd have to go AT LEAST 100 games, and to be halfway accurate, go 500 games. I didn't have the isk at the time though.
RUS Comannder
Writing Memoirs
#1427 - 2013-02-09 18:16:36 UTC
Babar Baboli wrote:
If I win the current minibonk, I will start a blog to salute all of you in Cognitive Distortion!
Think about it!


I thought about it. What i thought was it sounds like a guy who thinks a statement like that will scare everyone at Blink into somehow bestowing a win on you, as the meta message you are sending is that if you DON'T happen to be chosen by Random.org as a winner, you will blog unkind things about Blink.

You may not be be aware that they have had cheesy threats before, lived thru goofy accusations until the would be extortionists got tired of being laughed at.

Yeah, I thought about. Now it is time for you to think about it and how idiotic it sounds, even if it was meant in jest.

Good luck on the draw.
JusFooling Around
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#1428 - 2013-02-09 18:38:43 UTC
[
[/quote]


4 were with 50% bought, the rest were with one bought, every blink was with 8 tickets.

(1/2)^4*(1-(1/8))^28 = .14% chance of occuring.

At that probability, you stop, and you ask yourself "Is it possible that it's not fair? Could it be, that instead of being fair, that there's some sort of rigging going on behind the scenes?"

To clarify: If I have a coin, with heads and tails, and I flip it 100 times, and every time it's heads- what are my odds on the next flip that it'll be heads?

If you use frequency statistics, you'll say 50%. If you use Bayesian statics, you'll say it'll be heads.

In short, I felt the numbers being generated were odd enough that I wouldn't play anymore. How I got myself banned was to loudly and frequently say I was botting in the main channel until I got a ban.


Now, it's entirely possible that blink is 100% fair, and that my one string of bad luck is indeed a statistical anomaly. They happen. I'd have to go AT LEAST 100 games, and to be halfway accurate, go 500 games. I didn't have the isk at the time though.[/quote]


I'm glad you did not actually cheat, so I apologize for the slur. I am also glad you recognizze a losing streak you suffered is possible. I am frustrated by long streaks as well, but like the old story about the business equipment salesman who averaged one sale a day. At 4pm, he walked out of a business who had just given him the same "no" he'd heard all day and was very excited about making his last call of the day, because he knew in his heart that this was the ONE!

But the numbers don't know or care which number came last or next, any other way and it would not be random.

Good luck in your other ventures in Eve or wherever you go next. Just remember, this is all supposed to be fun, so when it isn't any longer, stop and do something else. Life is too short to spend it doing anything else but having fun, without hurting others or your self in the process.

Good luck.
Selkie Love
Doomheim
#1429 - 2013-02-09 21:55:43 UTC
^_^

I have isk now, tempted to create an account simply to do 500+ blinks and see what odds occur.

Then I'd have to it without being the one to create the blink every time. Might be interesting to see the results
JusFooling Around
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#1430 - 2013-02-10 06:41:30 UTC
Selkie Love wrote:
^_^

I have isk now, tempted to create an account simply to do 500+ blinks and see what odds occur.

Then I'd have to it without being the one to create the blink every time. Might be interesting to see the results



You really don't have to go to all that trouble, besides if they catch you playing after being banned, you'll lose the isk.

Plenty of players have given you enough data to see how it turns out. There are a lot of players who play one or two numbers.

You can look on the stats page and find some under the stat of most blinks played, and then lok at the circle thingy that shows the volume of times they have played certain numbers.

Here's an even better way and is no risk. Pick out ten numbers you might play and then you can get ten random numbers from Random.org and do it 50 times. They have a lot of free services. You could just pick one number and ask them for 500 random numbers 1-8 inclusive and then count the number of times your number was hit. You can look at the stream of the 500 numbers to see how many consecutive losses your number might have. I'd guess the overall selection rate would be very close to 12.5% or 1 in 8, but the real tale will be in the consecutive hits which I doubt would be anywhere near 1 in 8.

Email the guy that runs it, Mads Haar I think (if that really is his name, lol) is a likeable guy and will respond quickly. I had a lot of contact with him a few years ago in a project for my employer and became pretty familiar with the method. When I found out Blink was using them, I felt a lot better. It started out in a university setting and the guy is mad scientist who only cares about numbers. Random.org even provides lottery numbers to some small country's national lotteries, or at least did at one time.

Look at the site and shoot him an email, tell him about any concerns you may have. He's a straight shooter.

Good luck! Enjoy every day!
Swedish Spaceman
Norrskensdrommar
#1431 - 2013-02-10 11:07:38 UTC
And another weekly celebration is over, I would like to thank all the staff for another awesome week of blinking.
And of course, grats to all the winners of the bonk/minibonk.
Nikos Kabasis
Daedalus Industries Corporation
#1432 - 2013-02-14 08:17:51 UTC
Because statistics says lies some times here is my Blink Statistics


Blinks Played 31
ISK Deposited 150,000,000 ISK
Promo Blinks Played 11
Win Ratio 35.48% (the average that i have see in most big players is 10-15 %)
Blinks Won 11
Value of Blinks Won 624,000,000 ISK
Megablinks Won 0
Winnings Transformed to Blink Credit 113,778,000 ISK
Promo Blinks Won 0
Winnings Transformed to ISK 326,880,000 ISK


That u must calculate is Winnings Transformed to ISK minus ISK Deposited
so... 326,8 - 150m = 176,8m profit (plus the items that u hub in jita, if any)

so how about yours statistics?
DrJonF Rockit
Zebra Corp
Goonswarm Federation
#1433 - 2013-02-14 19:29:17 UTC
today is not my day to bet. I will stop now.... for today.
Evil
lonix Depran
Fusion Enterprises Ltd
Pandemic Horde
#1434 - 2013-02-16 10:43:03 UTC
RUS Comannder wrote:
Babar Baboli wrote:
If I win the current minibonk, I will start a blog to salute all of you in Cognitive Distortion!
Think about it!


I thought about it. What i thought was it sounds like a guy who thinks a statement like that will scare everyone at Blink into somehow bestowing a win on you, as the meta message you are sending is that if you DON'T happen to be chosen by Random.org as a winner, you will blog unkind things about Blink.

You may not be be aware that they have had cheesy threats before, lived thru goofy accusations until the would be extortionists got tired of being laughed at.

Yeah, I thought about. Now it is time for you to think about it and how idiotic it sounds, even if it was meant in jest.

Good luck on the draw.


i saw this a more of a humorus atempt to bribe them, not threten
Potato Cakes
Castle Kickers Ltd.
Ahbazon-Prime
#1435 - 2013-02-23 18:34:24 UTC
Blinks Played 2,130
ISK Deposited 9,868,048,484 ISK
Promo Blinks Played 1,037
Win Ratio 31.83%
Blinks Won 678
Value of Blinks Won 20,908,001,250 ISK
Megablinks Won 1
Winnings Transformed to Blink Credit 8,867,185,000 ISK
Promo Blinks Won 5
Winnings Transformed to ISK 1,744,920,000 ISK

Seems fine to me, considering the promo wins included a freighter and archon.

Keep up the awesome, yet addicting, work Somer!
iKill Giants
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#1436 - 2013-02-24 06:31:04 UTC
toasting this bread, buttered with 1.5bil in winnings
Ra1ne
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#1437 - 2013-02-26 10:11:38 UTC
any update on the issues? Site still down for me :(
Andrev Nox
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#1438 - 2013-02-26 10:30:59 UTC
Heya!

Our host's upstream ISP is having issues, but they're working to resolve it as fast as humanly possible. We're right here anxiously waiting too, believe me :p

Somer Blink - The original microlottery site.
Alice Saki
Nocturnal Romance
Cynosural Field Theory.
#1439 - 2013-02-26 10:50:58 UTC
MUST GAMBLE!

GIve me Blink Back :P

FREEZE! Drop the LIKES AND WALK AWAY! - Currenly rebuilding gaming machine, I will Return.
Thats OK
Schmizle
#1440 - 2013-02-26 13:20:45 UTC
Liking the blinking but you could use a guy with a sense of humor on chat channel Ugh