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Nocxium: The Sleeping Giant

Author
Aina Sasaki
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#121 - 2012-04-08 17:18:44 UTC
Nocxium has taken a little bit of a dip in Amarr so far today compared to where it was yesterday. I suppose it may just be a weekend thing as people drop what they mined/reproccessed yesterday, seemingly oblivious to the upcoming patch. Hopefully the prices will start shooting back up again during the week when less people are online. :)

- Rei

Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#122 - 2012-04-09 12:55:44 UTC
Aina Sasaki wrote:
Nocxium has taken a little bit of a dip in Amarr so far today compared to where it was yesterday. I suppose it may just be a weekend thing as people drop what they mined/reproccessed yesterday, seemingly oblivious to the upcoming patch. Hopefully the prices will start shooting back up again during the week when less people are online. :)


Sales were extremely slow on Sunday from my PoV. My guess is a bit of profit-taking, holidays and the market taking a breath before it goes nutzo again closer to the April 24th patch.

Mineral index is still generally up.
http://www.evemarketeer.com/trade/mineralindex

Nocx definitely showed some weakness on Sunday.
http://www.evemarketeer.com/item/info/38#3

The spread is also rather large. Top 5 region buy is 740, but the sell is 933.
Dead Loss
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#123 - 2012-04-09 14:42:33 UTC
120 million units of nocxium ready to crash the market here.

Don't make me use it.
Aina Sasaki
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#124 - 2012-04-09 16:34:44 UTC
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Aina Sasaki wrote:
Nocxium has taken a little bit of a dip in Amarr so far today compared to where it was yesterday. I suppose it may just be a weekend thing as people drop what they mined/reproccessed yesterday, seemingly oblivious to the upcoming patch. Hopefully the prices will start shooting back up again during the week when less people are online. :)


Sales were extremely slow on Sunday from my PoV. My guess is a bit of profit-taking, holidays and the market taking a breath before it goes nutzo again closer to the April 24th patch.

Mineral index is still generally up.
http://www.evemarketeer.com/trade/mineralindex

Nocx definitely showed some weakness on Sunday.
http://www.evemarketeer.com/item/info/38#3

The spread is also rather large. Top 5 region buy is 740, but the sell is 933.


Agreed. It also may be people dropping Nocxium on the market during the weekend who are largely oblivious to the trends that indicate that it is expected to continue to rise. Probably people who went out and mined/refined as they usually do and just decided to plop it all on the market. But hey, I don't have a problem with that. Buying up cheap orders works out well for me.

My wallet on the other hand, nowhere near as fat as most people I assume on these MD forums, doesn't like it quite as much... for now.

I'm thinking that Nocxium's price will go up a fair bit during the next few weekdays. Not a guarantee, of course. Just a feeling. :o

- Rei

Mookie Quantico
Doomheim
#125 - 2012-04-09 17:15:48 UTC
All part of the cycles.... the 24th, and various other "events" are still a couple of weeks away... the real fun has yet to hit. Blink

Mook
Durin Sarga
Lionhearted Investment Services and Planning
#126 - 2012-04-09 17:15:51 UTC
Aina Sasaki wrote:
My wallet on the other hand, nowhere near as fat as most people I assume on these MD forums, doesn't like it quite as much... for now.

I'm thinking that Nocxium's price will go up a fair bit during the next few weekdays. Not a guarantee, of course. Just a feeling. :o


I think this is something to take into account. When the bubble first started, and anyone watching fanfest with a brain was able to see that nocx was going up, many traders jumped in. Hence the rapid ascent. However, many of the 'smaller' traders are starting to see their wallets completely consumed by Nocx, and that doesn't always sit well.

These 'smaller' traders may be cashing out so they can free up liquid ISK for various other investments that aren't as 'long-term' as Nocx is going to be.

Just a thought.

Durin
Raven Ether
Doomheim
#127 - 2012-04-09 17:40:38 UTC
Up up and away Nocxium!
Tiregn
Anvil Capital Trading
#128 - 2012-04-09 17:52:17 UTC
As with all, once the actual Devblog is released for the masses to see (and maybe with some figures?) we'll see a larger spike again. Just have to have patience.

For some, cashing out now is guaranteed profit, if not as much as they might make in the end. If they picked up many millions of units at 400 or so, it's still a great profit margin, and they won't be fighting with everyone else when we all try to cash in :P
Aina Sasaki
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#129 - 2012-04-09 18:01:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Aina Sasaki
Durin Sarga wrote:
Aina Sasaki wrote:
My wallet on the other hand, nowhere near as fat as most people I assume on these MD forums, doesn't like it quite as much... for now.

I'm thinking that Nocxium's price will go up a fair bit during the next few weekdays. Not a guarantee, of course. Just a feeling. :o


I think this is something to take into account. When the bubble first started, and anyone watching fanfest with a brain was able to see that nocx was going up, many traders jumped in. Hence the rapid ascent. However, many of the 'smaller' traders are starting to see their wallets completely consumed by Nocx, and that doesn't always sit well.

These 'smaller' traders may be cashing out so they can free up liquid ISK for various other investments that aren't as 'long-term' as Nocx is going to be.

Just a thought.

Durin


I happen to be one of these "smaller traders" that you refer to in this post. The difference is that I think i've got a pretty good idea as to when exactly I will try to dump my mineral stocks. So rather than trying to dump it at the first opportunity, I am waiting for the right opportunity. Still, the loss of a sizable chunk of my ISK to be tied up in that investment is why I am hoping to try to scrounge up some investment from elsewhere.

- Rei

Mookie Quantico
Doomheim
#130 - 2012-04-09 18:21:21 UTC
People should also remember that the full blown patch isn't for another month (approximately) after the 24th... so who knows what tasty treats might emerge from that to spice up our little mineral orgy. Twisted

Or not.


Mookie

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#131 - 2012-04-09 19:40:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Prices go up and down in swings.

It's actually a very negative sign when price stops taking a breath every few days, because then it chokes and crashes.

Look at this little quick graph I slapped together.

I marked the swings with arrows, price goes down a bit, takes a breather, then resumes the climb.
At the bottom of most swings it's possible to buy "low" (compared to 2-3 days earlier) and take a larger profit later. I marked the appropriate price action with "buy".

The last swing it goes "hyperbolical" with no further pauses. When it starts going down, it shows a price action bar (a pin bar) like in the previous swings but it will be an exhaustion pin bar this time also known as inverse pin bar. Who will buy there will get burned. Price in fact often will drop till it will "sit" right on top of the previous swing bars highs.

Wise traders will wait till price crashes a bit, then buy. Only then, a second high top will form and the classic pattern called "double top" will appear. Past that, it's free fall till the double top target, often it's at least as big of a drop as the double top height.
Mookie Quantico
Doomheim
#132 - 2012-04-09 19:57:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Mookie Quantico
And folks can always hope a few Titans to get burned down to their keels.... major fleet losses can sometimes have a certain "je ne sais quoi" for mineral prices. Blink

Mook Pirate
lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
#133 - 2012-04-09 20:40:12 UTC
Dead Loss wrote:
120 million units of nocxium ready to crash the market here.

Don't make me use it.


Now is the right time to unload nocx stockpile cause it seems that nocx speculators run out of ISK needed to maintain high nocx prices. After all, you need at least 0.5-2T ISK to maintain nocx prices in Jita region alone, but not for a long time.
Immortis Vexx
Onyx Moon Industries
#134 - 2012-04-09 21:07:57 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Prices go up and down in swings.

It's actually a very negative sign when price stops taking a breath every few days, because then it chokes and crashes.

Look at this little quick graph I slapped together.

I marked the swings with arrows, price goes down a bit, takes a breather, then resumes the climb.
At the bottom of most swings it's possible to buy "low" (compared to 2-3 days earlier) and take a larger profit later. I marked the appropriate price action with "buy".

The last swing it goes "hyperbolical" with no further pauses. When it starts going down, it shows a price action bar (a pin bar) like in the previous swings but it will be an exhaustion pin bar this time also known as inverse pin bar. Who will buy there will get burned. Price in fact often will drop till it will "sit" right on top of the previous swing bars highs.

Wise traders will wait till price crashes a bit, then buy. Only then, a second high top will form and the classic pattern called "double top" will appear. Past that, it's free fall till the double top target, often it's at least as big of a drop as the double top height.



Vaerah, that looks more like speculators profit taking than anything. In a breakout situation doesn't the previous resistance become the new support? That particular pattern is seen in two of the last 3 dips that the price has had. Just a note that I am a market noob and only have about 5 minutes of technical analysis under my belt here (and testing my newly acquired skills)

Thoughts?

Vexx

Block Ukx
Winnie Blues and VB Crew
#135 - 2012-04-10 00:00:38 UTC
lafforet wrote:

Now is the right time to unload nocx stockpile ...



You are a few days too late. Told you to unload at 1,100 ISK.





Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#136 - 2012-04-10 00:16:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Immortis Vexx wrote:


Vaerah, that looks more like speculators profit taking than anything. In a breakout situation doesn't the previous resistance become the new support? That particular pattern is seen in two of the last 3 dips that the price has had. Just a note that I am a market noob and only have about 5 minutes of technical analysis under my belt here (and testing my newly acquired skills)

Thoughts?

Vexx



If you want I can post the full graph and you'll see how indeed the price tanked, formed a double top and then dove down to 2 swings below. You can see by yourself by opening any Forex EURUSD monthly graph.
Immortis Vexx
Onyx Moon Industries
#137 - 2012-04-10 01:17:42 UTC
I would love to see the whole chart with some good markings on it (if you wouldn't mind) Lol

Vexx
Larofeticus
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#138 - 2012-04-10 14:11:13 UTC
Technical charts are garbage. You can put all the fancy bars and arrows you want on a chart during a bull market and pretty much always come out ahead. All you've managed to do is find some patterns in historical data. There are no constants acting to preserve that pattern present into the future.

Besides, the important part isn't the path the market takes, but the point where it finally reaches equilibrium. You can buy into all the little ups and downs you like if you know that the equilibrium point is two to three fold higher than current prices.
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#139 - 2012-04-10 14:38:50 UTC
please.. sell your stocks so i can buy them.
EvilweaselFinance
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#140 - 2012-04-10 14:49:09 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
If you want I can post the full graph and you'll see how indeed the price tanked, formed a double top and then dove down to 2 swings below. You can see by yourself by opening any Forex EURUSD monthly graph.

then can you deduce personality traits from some pictures of skulls for me then dance naked around some goat entrails and read the future thanks