Market Discussions

Sure but when you will see the trend change with predictions made to the same trend continuing (regardless of factors affecting the actual outcomes) there will be those taking advantage of the losses.

pretty much yes...

And the same player driven market may have decided to bring it down for the first year.


There were zero certainty on that.


The whole scheme was just purely speculation with no way to know for sure in advance.


It was pure luck , and the factors affecting the outcome may have changed without notice.


However, it was true.


This does not mean that I had ways to change the market on my end.


It was only a prediction which did happen to materialize in the same time frame as calculated by approximation.


I had only a very small sample of the data required that affect the actual outcome and no way to change it on my end.

How many models did you fit? That just seems odd. One year high the next low. I could buy something more like a traditional seasonal patter what with school/summer etc. But a year over year fluctuation....?

And did you try including some sort of autoregressive error term? Looking at the remainder graph and your Durbin-Watson statistic (although I don't have access to my texts with the tables for the Durbin-Watson tables) might want to consider adding in an autoregressive error term.

1.223 b ISK in Jita
1.220
1.215
2.214

Sorry for the delay, irl has been a little unfriendly of late. Nothing serious, just time and energy consuming.

Frankly this was just something I threw together because it looked interesting, and it did seem that when you have daily data, with some of the trending that is bound to happen around games, you would get some weird cycles turning up and there would not be just one pattern.

Personally I am templed to say that the last year has been weird and has not behaved like the previous ones. And even just mentioning being able to buy sp with plex will continue to make it odd.

The first time serious decomposition I did was using the stl function (using loess) with the seasonal window of "periodic" it takes the mean instead of smoothing per a supplied lag. The function can take a number of other parametres like a trend window and so on. I used this with a number of stated seasonal periods as well (7 and 365.25), but thats in the code.

The tbats function from the forecast library is an interesting one. For one thing it has an insanely long name (TBATS model (Exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components)).

The options I had used were seasonal periods for both 7 and 365.25 on daily data with box.cox to true. If this was null then it would have used selected if they were to be used based on AIC.

trend and damped trend were not selected explicitly though damped was used. I should have included this in the original output:

> PlexAverage.tbats$parameters
$vect
[1] 1.246931e-06 8.484456e-01 8.181487e-01 -4.206490e-02 -6.835356e-07
[6] -3.498706e-04 -4.151820e-04 6.235535e-05

$control
$control$use.beta
[1] TRUE

$control$use.box.cox
[1] TRUE

$control$use.damping
[1] TRUE

$control$length.gamma
[1] 4

$control$p
[1] 0

$control$q
[1] 0

arama.errors was set true and used and fitted by AIC.

hope this answers your questions, its worth just looking at it yourself. I am relatively new to working with time series data anyway.

Inflation manifests rather strongly in PLEX, don't it.

Back down to 1.20b ISK and 1.9b ISK.
Now back down to 1.17b ISK
plus 1.76, 1.74, 1.73 and 1.71...
The depreciated deflation is what I mentioned.

Again right.
Again, as some other said it would not go back down but would only go up.


Mind you, it is still above 1.1b ISK.

Actually , I have to go to sleep and don't have time to login.
I'm still fixing some errors for the last 2 weeks and had to borrow funds to solve it.

There's nothing stopping it.

On the other hand, companies amongst other things like to overcharge and always do so at the most critical moments.

Just now, during the PLEx sale, I was again overcharged for no less then $770 which limits my PLEx trading capacity.
Of course, they may fix it before the sale end, but that always leaves some bad emotions and interferes against the optimum flow.

And yes, there are other cases very similar which add to the problems and diminish my legitimate profits and potential profits.

To 1.61 and 1.55...


eve-marketdata.com :
http://eve-marketdata.com/price_check.php?step=Show&type_id=29668&region_id=&solarsystem_id=&type=history
(link code probably won't work...)

http://imgur.com/a/GrHWe


http://imgur.com/VYPOwQU
1-1w (in green)
Down last week.
1.215 to 1.125

http://imgur.com/hxuSyVu
2-1m (in yellow)
1.095 to 1.22 over 1month

http://imgur.com/dQsSPBo
3-3m (in blue)
960m ISK to 1.22 last.
I thought it went up to over 1.21 before, up to
1.29.
However, I cannot see it in this graph.

http://imgur.com/pOXEgNQ
4-6m (in yellow ochre)
1.2+ doesn't show anymore over 6 months
spread.
The graph exactitude level accuracy ratio
reduces.

http://imgur.com/YyaYyzh
5-1y (in purple)
Last Year's Results:
800m ISK to 780m ISK.
Up to 900m 1st and 2nd quarter.
Up to 950m ISK in the last quarters.
to 1.95 b ISK average in the last month.
So, over the 1.1b ISK predicted minimum increase.
Time period was targeted from end of August, Sept.
5, to October, 2015.


You can deduce the percent ratio and put them in pie charts from those numbers.

Once the upward trrend reach levels which are higher than normal or,
that are higher than the player base or factors influencing it's behavior would normally affect it,
then, the upward trend will diminish.
Or at least, it could.

It may go back up again, after it diminishes.
It is possible that it went higher than before and by a higher percentage this time around.

It's behavior may still change and there is not enough brick and mortar to dictate it's outcome as a rigid stable trend.

There are other possible outcomes.


I will calculate the percentages at which the rates were affected.
It will give insight into the past and present trends.

However, it will not guarantee any valid future speculations.
It may make it easier, but that is besides the point.


It could go back up, but by how much, and when, and for how long?
Also, what will be the percent of profit for current or pre-planned investments?


Edit:
There is also an error in the last graph stating 1.95 b ISK when it would clearly be 1.095 b ISK.
1.29 b ISK being the highest level recorded...