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Crime & Punishment

 
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The reality of the goon freighter ganking in Uedema and neighboring systems.

First post
Author
Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians
#381 - 2012-09-20 19:41:43 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Malphilos wrote:
Andski wrote:
there's plenty of risk in suicide ganking, you just chalk it up to an "accepted cost" because you want to frame the argument your way


The downside is completely limited. It is in fact a fixed cost and must be accepted or the process can't happen. One might argue that it turns the "don't fly what you can't afford to lose" rule on it's head as the loss is intended as a cost of business.

You can't lose more than you intend or "accept", unless you're a complete flipping idiot and fail to understand the concept of "suicide". It's all potential upside.

Risk mitigation at it's finest.


You forgot the loot gods and they are a fickle bunch.


No... I think he's saying (feel free to correct me) is that the expense side of the ledger is fixed. I WILL lose every ship that fires on the freighter. So my cost is known. He's not alleging that it's a guaranteed return / profit. Merely that when you set out to do it, you KNOW you're going to lose x amount of isk.
Malphilos
State War Academy
Caldari State
#382 - 2012-09-20 19:44:04 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Malphilos wrote:
Andski wrote:
there's plenty of risk in suicide ganking, you just chalk it up to an "accepted cost" because you want to frame the argument your way


The downside is completely limited. It is in fact a fixed cost and must be accepted or the process can't happen. One might argue that it turns the "don't fly what you can't afford to lose" rule on it's head as the loss is intended as a cost of business.

You can't lose more than you intend or "accept", unless you're a complete flipping idiot and fail to understand the concept of "suicide". It's all potential upside.

Risk mitigation at it's finest.


You forgot the loot gods and they are a fickle bunch.


Sure they are, but that's all upside after fixed costs. It's completely possible to lose all your iskies suicide ganking, but you'd have to do it on purpose.
Andski
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#383 - 2012-09-20 19:57:35 UTC
Malphilos wrote:
Sure they are, but that's all upside after fixed costs. It's completely possible to lose all your iskies suicide ganking, but you'd have to do it on purpose.


So those dudes that gank a freighter which yields absolutely nothing as far as drops are just losing their ISK on purpose?

Explain this new wave of NPC alt logic to me, please.

Twitter: @EVEAndski

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths."    - Abrazzar

Andski
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#384 - 2012-09-20 20:00:25 UTC
When you're talking about the "risk" aspect you have to put it in perspective of the rewards involved, and when that reward is entirely based on a crap throw you can't really talk about it being "risk-free"

Twitter: @EVEAndski

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths."    - Abrazzar

Alavaria Fera
Imperial Shipment
#385 - 2012-09-20 20:00:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Alavaria Fera
Andski wrote:
Malphilos wrote:
Sure they are, but that's all upside after fixed costs. It's completely possible to lose all your iskies suicide ganking, but you'd have to do it on purpose.

So those dudes that gank a freighter which yields absolutely nothing as far as drops are just losing their ISK on purpose?

Explain this new wave of NPC alt logic to me, please.

Basically, CCP needs to make ganking worse.

What about giving the freighter 1000% buff to EHP? Well no, the gankers accepted losing the ship, and a 20bil haul was exploded. Better just make it impossible ~~

Triggered by: Wars of Sovless Agression, Bending the Knee, Twisting the Knife, Eating Sov Wheaties, Bombless Bombers, Fizzlesov, Interceptor Fleets, Running Away, GhostTime Vuln, Renters, Bombs, Bubbles ?

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#386 - 2012-09-20 20:02:14 UTC
Andski wrote:
When you're talking about the "risk" aspect you have to put it in perspective of the rewards involved, and when that reward is entirely based on a crap throw you can't really talk about it being "risk-free"
In fact, even without considering the potential rewards, it's still not risk free.

Risk = probability × cost, and the risk doesn't suddenly vanish just because the probability reached 1.
Dan Carter Murray
#387 - 2012-09-20 20:05:49 UTC
Andski wrote:
Dan Carter Murray wrote:
I don't think anyone here has actually played WoW.

Yes, use rapier to insta warp freighters.

No, goons don't recruit adults.

No, goons aren't "good" at pvp.

Yes, goons have a few think tank corps that come up with clever ways to make isk.

No, nothing interesting happens in nullsec.


lol so bitter, sorry you got scammed


wut?

http://mfi.re/?j7ldoco 50GB free space @ MediaFire.com

Dan Carter Murray
#388 - 2012-09-20 20:06:02 UTC
Tom Gerard wrote:
Andski wrote:
Dan Carter Murray wrote:
I don't think anyone here has actually played WoW.

Yes, use rapier to insta warp freighters.

No, goons don't recruit adults.

No, goons aren't "good" at pvp.

Yes, goons have a few think tank corps that come up with clever ways to make isk.

No, nothing interesting happens in nullsec.


lol so bitter, sorry you got scammed



Bitter like a recently nerfed Caldari, or a soon to be nerfed Winmatar=P


wut?

http://mfi.re/?j7ldoco 50GB free space @ MediaFire.com

Nicolo da'Vicenza
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#389 - 2012-09-20 20:08:39 UTC
Seminole Sun wrote:

No... I think he's saying (feel free to correct me) is that the expense side of the ledger is fixed. I WILL lose every ship that fires on the freighter. So my cost is known. He's not alleging that it's a guaranteed return / profit. Merely that when you set out to do it, you KNOW you're going to lose x amount of isk.

damm them goonies enjoying their risk free isk loss
Buck Futz
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#390 - 2012-09-20 20:09:48 UTC
Malphilos wrote:
Andski wrote:
there's plenty of risk in suicide ganking, you just chalk it up to an "accepted cost" because you want to frame the argument your way


The downside is completely limited. It is in fact a fixed cost and must be accepted or the process can't happen. One might argue that it turns the "don't fly what you can't afford to lose" rule on it's head as the loss is intended as a cost of business.

You can't lose more than you intend or "accept", unless you're a complete flipping idiot and fail to understand the concept of "suicide". It's all potential upside.

Risk mitigation at it's finest.


So you are saying that there is 'no risk' when you accept a 100% chance of being destroyed by Concord?

OK. My solution to this problem of 'no risk in suicide ganking' is to propose that Concord only kills the ganker 50% of the time.

This will introduce a(nother) random element into the equation, and provide the profession with the 'risk' you desire.

This way the suicide gankers expectations will include occasionally surviving the gank attempt, and will be that much more disappointed when Concord vaporizes their ship.

Its a win-win.

Except you simply wanted to use idiotitc semantics to paint ganking as a 'profession without risk' in order to justify further nerfs.


Malphilos
State War Academy
Caldari State
#391 - 2012-09-20 20:13:29 UTC
Andski wrote:
Malphilos wrote:
Sure they are, but that's all upside after fixed costs. It's completely possible to lose all your iskies suicide ganking, but you'd have to do it on purpose.


So those dudes that gank a freighter which yields absolutely nothing as far as drops are just losing their ISK on purpose?

Explain this new wave of NPC alt logic to me, please.


Yes.

I didn't say it was risk elimination (this is for Tippia as well), it's mitigation. Control if you will.

It's analogous to going to Vegas knowing exactly how much you'll spend. You've decided to spend X, but if you hit the jackpot you'll spend less and may make money.

It's all upside. There's no occasion where you can lose more than you intend.
Nicolo da'Vicenza
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#392 - 2012-09-20 20:15:36 UTC
...therefore going to vegas and gambling is risk free
Nicolo da'Vicenza
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#393 - 2012-09-20 20:17:06 UTC
i think this npc corp poster wants it so like CONCORD doesn't merely shoot the gank ship you're in, but CONCORDs a random ship out of your hangar as well.
Malphilos
State War Academy
Caldari State
#394 - 2012-09-20 20:18:13 UTC
Buck Futz wrote:
This will introduce a(nother) random element into the equation, and provide the profession with the 'risk' you desire.


I'm not sure why you think I desire more random factors.

Hell, I didn't ask for anything to change. You're having an argument with someone else I think.
Malphilos
State War Academy
Caldari State
#395 - 2012-09-20 20:19:51 UTC
Nicolo da'Vicenza wrote:
...therefore going to vegas and gambling is risk free


Is there a gas leak in your immediate vicinity?

I quite clearly said it wasn't risk elimination. It's control.

What the hell is so complex about this that people keep making crap up?
Buck Futz
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#396 - 2012-09-20 20:20:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Buck Futz
Malphilos wrote:
Andski wrote:
Malphilos wrote:
Sure they are, but that's all upside after fixed costs. It's completely possible to lose all your iskies suicide ganking, but you'd have to do it on purpose.


So those dudes that gank a freighter which yields absolutely nothing as far as drops are just losing their ISK on purpose?

Explain this new wave of NPC alt logic to me, please.


Yes.

I didn't say it was risk elimination (this is for Tippia as well), it's mitigation. Control if you will.

It's analogous to going to Vegas knowing exactly how much you'll spend. You've decided to spend X, but if you hit the jackpot you'll spend less and may make money.

It's all upside. There's no occasion where you can lose more than you intend.


How is it EVER possible to lose more than you intend?

And freighters can never lose more than they pack into their holds.
A freighter pilot can make a lot more ISK if he packs 20 Billion into a single load, but he implicitly understood by undocking that he could lose it all.

And Exhumer pilots can never lose more than their Hulk and their pod.

Undocking = accepting that you might lose your ship and your pod.

Any expectation less than this is an abject failure to understand EVE. Which is not CCP's problem. Its a 'you' problem.
Andski
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#397 - 2012-09-20 20:24:36 UTC
Malphilos wrote:
Yes.

I didn't say it was risk elimination (this is for Tippia as well), it's mitigation. Control if you will.

It's analogous to going to Vegas knowing exactly how much you'll spend. You've decided to spend X, but if you hit the jackpot you'll spend less and may make money.

It's all upside. There's no occasion where you can lose more than you intend.


hey sup I have a discovery that will enlighten the **** out of you

there is literally no situation in eve where you can lose more than you intend

*exhales* wisdom

Twitter: @EVEAndski

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths."    - Abrazzar

Robert De'Arneth
#398 - 2012-09-20 20:25:20 UTC
Malphilos wrote:
Nicolo da'Vicenza wrote:
...therefore going to vegas and gambling is risk free


Is there a gas leak in your immediate vicinity?

I quite clearly said it wasn't risk elimination. It's control.

What the hell is so complex about this that people keep making crap up?



I think on whole it is pretty simple, most people who play EVE do not need their hands held.

I'm a nerd, you can check my stats!! Skilling Int/Mem at 45 sp per minute is how I mack!     I'm like a lapdog, all bark no bite. 

Taedrin
Virtues Corporation
#399 - 2012-09-20 20:32:34 UTC
Possible counters:
1) Kill the bumper
2) Scout before you enter a system
3) Log off before you get aggressed. IIRC, PVP does not extend your log off timer if you log off before getting aggressed.
4) Triple web your freighter with an alt so that it insta warps.
5) Fully insure your ship and don't haul cargo more valuable than the ships required to gank it.
6) Failing all of the above, contract out to a courier service who is more competent than you, such as Red Frog Freight.
Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians
#400 - 2012-09-20 20:37:36 UTC
Okay... Some terms are getting thrown around and clearly there's some definitional disconnects

Cost = Expense and is NOT the same thing as Risk

Risk = uncertainty

Things with high Risk (i.e. uncertainty) typically demand a higher risk adjusted rate of return. A quick example is useful.

If I look at two investments. One has a 50/50 chance of gaining 60million isk or losing 40million isk. That's an Expected Value (EV) of $10million isk but with a fairly high risk associated with it.

Another investment has a 90/10 chance of gaining $12million isk or losing 8million isk (.9*12-8*.1 = 10) so they have the same Expected Value (EV) but very different risk profiles. In the real world, no one would buy the first investment if confronted with a choice. They'd dump all their money into the second one because the chance that ALL of their bets go bad is pretty slim while the chance that ALL of their best go bad if they do the first investment are actually pretty good and, in the long run, they'll make the exact same return so why take on the volatility.

Back to EVE

The GANKING aspect of freighter ganking (i.e. blowing the thing up) has no uncertainty (i.e. "risk") on the cost side. With 100% certainty you will lose X amount (whatever ships you have that shoot). Possibly if you bring a second bank of ships to cover for things like possible logi ships, boosters etc you might have a small amount of variation but it shouldn't be much.

What IS risky is the payoff. Absolutely. Both Malphilos and I concede that. But it doesn't change the equation on the cost side of things which is fixed with no "risk" associated with it.

I would GUESS, though I can't be certain, that gankers would look at a freighter full of $5Billion in Tech, Megacyte, Morphite and Zydrine as a MUCH better bet than one that has a single $5.5Billion isk implant (if they're PURELY looking for profit... if they want the kill mail, the single implant is a pretty awesome find). Because even though the implant technically has a higher EV, it also has a very good chance (50/50 right?) of yielding NOTHING for the effort.