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Why doesn't Dr. Eyjolfur post on the Market Forums?

Author
Callduron
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#21 - 2012-04-20 11:15:23 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Callduron wrote:
I enjoyed the QEN and I'd love to see more writing from Doctor E, either here or a return to QEN publishing.

I don't think he's often been factually wrong. Case in point the technetium issue cited above is largely a manufactured shortage caused by tech moon operators running a cartel rather than an actual shortage of the stuff in the game. So I wouldn't blame the economist for something clever players have caused to become highly over-priced.


look how dumb you are


Oh sorry. Were you hoping it would still stay a secret while you sell off as much tech as possible before they implement tech rarely dropping during regular mining?

I write http://stabbedup.blogspot.co.uk/

I post on reddit as /u/callduron.

Yalluto
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#22 - 2012-04-20 11:41:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Yalluto
My personal opinion is that the QEN were/are pointless other than a item to be printed off and bound for future ganders. Anybody can look at a host of third party, market dump aggregation sites and known what minerals were doing. Posting ship counts should've remained in the realm of proprietary, requiring a little common sense and networking to get a big picture view of the habits of the herd.

Personally, I look over enough information and am enough of a small time dealer that mass market information goes in one ear and out the other. I simply don't have the cash of some of the other players to take meaningful advantage of long term disparities in the market. My interest is in striking quickly at exceedingly short opportunities so that I can "play" the game too instead of concerning myself with all manner of tools and whatnot to play a game outside of EVE.
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#23 - 2012-04-20 13:32:30 UTC
Callduron wrote:

Oh sorry. Were you hoping it would still stay a secret while you sell off as much tech as possible before they implement tech rarely dropping during regular mining?

did you just accuse us of both

1)running a cartel
2)dumping as much tech as possible

at the exact same time?
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#24 - 2012-04-20 14:49:50 UTC
Retar Aveymone wrote:
Callduron wrote:

Oh sorry. Were you hoping it would still stay a secret while you sell off as much tech as possible before they implement tech rarely dropping during regular mining?

did you just accuse us of both

1)running a cartel
2)dumping as much tech as possible

at the exact same time?


in case this post wasn't dismissive enough, those two options are mutually exclusive and he's calling you a moron for accusing us of doing both


just thought I'd spell that out since you seem pretty dumb

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Callduron
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#25 - 2012-04-20 16:30:09 UTC
Ha ha, I've certainly touched a nerve.

I write http://stabbedup.blogspot.co.uk/

I post on reddit as /u/callduron.

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#26 - 2012-04-20 16:37:18 UTC
nah you're absolutely right that we're in a position to cartel it and even that we are


but saying that we're somehow holding supply back and simultaneously dumping it as fast as we can makes you a broken clock

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#27 - 2012-04-20 18:53:10 UTC
corestwo wrote:
nah you're absolutely right that we're in a position to cartel it and even that we are


but saying that we're somehow holding supply back and simultaneously dumping it as fast as we can makes you a broken clock


This being case in point, but it could be worded differently.

Also there is a huge difference between an actual cartel, and the market reaching an agreement due to oligopolistics situations.

No one body in null can control the flow of raw materials. Also you might want to look to the marketeering crowd, and their tendency to corner markets. I could be wrong but most players and entities in null dont care much once they go and off load stuff.

The point of the post however was the good doctor, and I find it strange that he is not looking deeper into the features already in the game, that seem to not be activated. Things like limitation to facility slots via standing and price differences in facilities. The game is left FLAT, and the economy is suffering from being in some sort of "arcade mode"...

Please change setting to HELL. The players can tank it, I am sure of it..

Well guess on that note its time to beta Diablo III
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#28 - 2012-04-20 22:19:17 UTC
there is no tech cartel in the sense the idiot thinks there is, an artificial restriction of supply through agreement with other parties

instead, what there is is information-sharing on how to not crater tech prices by accident, as well as my personal use of goonswarm market power to move prices to equilibrium faster than might happen otherwise

the general idea the moron has - that tech is not the bottleneck of t2 production, and is just made to be through a cartel - is trivially disprovable (and, you gotta ask, why has it managed to persist through virtually every tech moon in the game changing hands over the past year)
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#29 - 2012-04-20 22:23:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Retar Aveymone
but really even just organizing a cartel among our allies would be absolutely impossible, it'd be a nightmare to get everyone on board and prevent cheating and develop trust expecially while most members of the cartel are trying to kill someone else in it

that's why controlling as much tech as we do owns, i control something like 1/6th of the entire supply so i don't need to deal with dozens of people to cause spikes
Callduron
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#30 - 2012-04-20 23:15:09 UTC
My word you're panicking, aren't you?

Look, tech stocks can't be empty as you keep insisting. Otherwise the price would be constantly inflating, not spiking and going back down. But you know that :)

I write http://stabbedup.blogspot.co.uk/

I post on reddit as /u/callduron.

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#31 - 2012-04-20 23:39:24 UTC  |  Edited by: corestwo
Callduron wrote:
My word you're panicking, aren't you?

Look, tech stocks can't be empty as you keep insisting. Otherwise the price would be constantly inflating, not spiking and going back down. But you know that :)


http://i.imgur.com/P6WIL.png

Question

e: before you make the obvious attempt to sound right based on semantics, sure its rising and falling but consistently going upward overall

e2: ps the dips following the spikes more or less coincide with moons changing hands (protip there's another dip coming) or people needing tech because they welped some supers, the existence of your supposed stockpiles would attenuate this effect

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#32 - 2012-04-21 00:11:00 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Callduron wrote:
My word you're panicking, aren't you?

Look, tech stocks can't be empty as you keep insisting. Otherwise the price would be constantly inflating, not spiking and going back down. But you know that :)


http://i.imgur.com/P6WIL.png

Question

e: before you make the obvious attempt to sound right based on semantics, sure its rising and falling but consistently going upward overall

e2: ps the dips following the spikes more or less coincide with moons changing hands (protip there's another dip coming) or people needing tech because they welped some supers, the existence of your supposed stockpiles would attenuate this effect


Corestwo is quite correct.
Only details would be that the extreme rightmost swing has some speculation push and that the "dips" are just the natural swings that every market needs to breathe (regardless of the underlying cause).
If it had been a pure cartel operation the price would do more "saw teeth" shaped swings and they'd be more on an horizontal plane.
Callduron
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#33 - 2012-04-21 01:01:12 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

If it had been a pure cartel operation the price would do more "saw teeth" shaped swings and they'd be more on an horizontal plane.


You're assuming that the only possible way a cartel could be run is that they all agree a price point and never vary from that price point even when circumstances change. That's obviously nonsense.

When the market is running counter to the game design logic it's because of player action. When it's a commodity that only a tiny handful of players directly harvest that player action is a cartel.

I write http://stabbedup.blogspot.co.uk/

I post on reddit as /u/callduron.

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#34 - 2012-04-21 04:22:35 UTC
So we're a cartel, but there's also stockpiles out there, but there actually aren't, and we're all also all dumping as fast as possible in anticipation of the introduction of ring mining that CCP has given no details whatsoever about including, most crucially, a date.



Do I have that right?



Apparently we're schrodinger's cartel or something I don't even know.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#35 - 2012-04-21 05:40:43 UTC
Callduron wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

If it had been a pure cartel operation the price would do more "saw teeth" shaped swings and they'd be more on an horizontal plane.


You're assuming that the only possible way a cartel could be run is that they all agree a price point and never vary from that price point even when circumstances change. That's obviously nonsense.

When the market is running counter to the game design logic it's because of player action. When it's a commodity that only a tiny handful of players directly harvest that player action is a cartel.


Markets never run "counter logic" and "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent".

This is the fun thing about people willing to find the super-deep reason in everything: they get lost in the details while they crawl in the dark and get in all sorts of rumors and speculations.

All I see in Corestwo's graph is like what I posted yesterday in my Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE thread about trends: look from the Feb 2001 to end of 2003 example.

That's all you need to know, not how good or bad Goons are, how scarce or not Technetium is and tralala nobody can know.
Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#36 - 2012-04-21 17:10:39 UTC
I think we stand a bit corrected..

Would seem we just got a nice new dev blog...

Hoping he drops in on us, and drops a line once in a while. Especially some comments on the more analytical and feature discussion threads..

Would like to hear more about out of game market data and historics all the way back to early days..

Also any comments on if or why we are not getting shares tradable in scc, player corp and npc corp..

Dev blog
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#37 - 2012-04-21 18:07:20 UTC
The man has to stay fairly quiet obviously.

Look what happened after he said CCP "may or may not" "do something" about the price of PLEX a year ago.

HE is one smart man to stay away from THIS panicky flame-boat.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882

Callduron
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#38 - 2012-04-21 18:15:40 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Callduron wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

If it had been a pure cartel operation the price would do more "saw teeth" shaped swings and they'd be more on an horizontal plane.


You're assuming that the only possible way a cartel could be run is that they all agree a price point and never vary from that price point even when circumstances change. That's obviously nonsense.

When the market is running counter to the game design logic it's because of player action. When it's a commodity that only a tiny handful of players directly harvest that player action is a cartel.


Markets never run "counter logic" and "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent".

This is the fun thing about people willing to find the super-deep reason in everything: they get lost in the details while they crawl in the dark and get in all sorts of rumors and speculations.

All I see in Corestwo's graph is like what I posted yesterday in my Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE thread about trends: look from the Feb 2001 to end of 2003 example.

That's all you need to know, not how good or bad Goons are, how scarce or not Technetium is and tralala nobody can know.


OK, I read your other thread about the candle bar graphs and it looks very interesting. I still think you're missing the point about Tech, especially if you're inferring from regular up and down fluctuations that there cannot be a cartel.

I'm not saying all Tech stock is owned by one shadowy puppetmaster who logs on and updates his sell orders once a week. Tech has basically been analogous to real world gold for the last two years. Since Akita T's the Sky's the limit post people have stored value in Tech. So of course there are spikes because any price point will see long and short term speculators move stock.

But most Tech that is actually harvested is subject to a price agreement made by nullsec alliances. That's why, with a Tech nerf imminent, the price has gone up. Because clever players are maximising their profits while they still can. As Mittens said in the state of the Goonion 3 weeks ago when asked about the incoming tech nerf "our finance guys have been planning for this since we got our first tech moon".

I also think, V V, that when you read posts from people like Coretwo you make the mistake of taking his obvious expertise as an indication that what he is saying is correct. He IS expert. He also has a vested interest. That's why he's misleading the board. It reminds me of how, in 2008 when we started to realise there might be a problem with our savings and pensions, journalists invited experts from Goldman Sachs on to their programmes to advise the public how to invest their money. If you want to be a real auditing expert you need to look at the people as well as the numbers.

Anyway I need to learn a bit more about candles before we can really have a decent discussion on why you think the graphs show there is no cartel in operation, VV. Thanks for your insights.

I write http://stabbedup.blogspot.co.uk/

I post on reddit as /u/callduron.

Tobiaz
Spacerats
#39 - 2012-04-21 18:24:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Tobiaz
You guys still going on about that tech ? Ugh

Ontopic: I like the guy, but with the level of access Dr. Eyjo has to in-game statistics, GM Arkanon would probably come and sit on his lap whenever he would log in to play. I miss the QENs though. And the last quarter has definitely been busy enough to make it an interesting read.

Operation WRITE DOWN ALL THE THINGS!!!  Check out the list at http://bit.ly/wdatt Collecting and compiling all fixes and ideas for EVE. Looking for more editors!

Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#40 - 2012-04-21 18:25:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Krixtal Icefluxor
Callduron wrote:
[OK, I read your other thread about the candle bar graphs and it looks very interesting... SNIPPAGE



Yup. The Goons have had their tiny pathetic little hands around the price of Technetium TOO long. Kills T2 shipbuilding profits for all down to hardly anything.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882

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